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Why Not?


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2006 May 16, 4:16am   24,518 views  230 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

realtorduderealtorlogoL

Given how low the barrier to entry is and how many licensed Realtwhores® are already out there (something like half a million in CA alone now), isn't the post-bubble aftermath a perfect time for me to study for my Realtwhore® license?

I know, I know... you're probably thinking: "Hey, isn't this the same guy who takes cheap shots at Realtwhores® every chance he gets? Isn't this the same guy who posts article after article about Realtwhore® deceit and trickery? Isn't this the guy who routinely characterizes the NAR/MLS as a monopoly and quasi-mafia crime syndicate?"

Well... yes, yes and emphatically YES !!! But despite my personal feelings about Realtwhores®, I'm willing to set all this aside for a very important reason: 6%.

Yes, if I become my own Realtwhore®, I don't have to worry about the inherent conflicts of interest, routine misdirection, lies and thievery that comes part and parcel of being represented by one of California's finest (unless I decide to rip off myself, that is)! Not only can I cut 3% --the buyer agent's commission-- right off the top for any house I decide to buy, but I will also have direct unfiltered access to the local MLS --without having to wait for Congress to de-monopolize it.

I can *guarantee* that I will do due diligence to ensure my client is well represented: ME !

I will be my own "agent of change" :-). This way, in a few years --when prices are close to bottoming out-- I will be ready to pounce fully prepared to tender my "insulting" lowball offer with information asymmetry working for me (for a change)!

So, the question is, how best to go about it? Should I take one of those local community college courses, or go the self-study route? There must be a flood of former Realtors® out there (about to become a tsunami) ready to unload their study materials on the cheap. Anyone out there have any suggestions?

I can DO this. Suzanne researched it.
HARM

#housing

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171   DinOR   2006 May 18, 2:02am  

WWII,

You know I never really thought of it that way! The Corvair definitely had a loyal following even in it's day. They were impractical in northern climates b/c it was difficult to keep windows defrosted and have adequate heat in the winter months. However they could have had a completely different application in warmer climates and were just fine during the summer months. I understand that the Fiero is a favorite for conversion by "electric car" enthusiasts.

172   Different Sean   2006 May 18, 2:17am  

I absolutely hate when they put the “curbs in!” We all understand the implications of programmed trading but this is a FREE MARKET damn it! No one is held captive here against their will. If you want to sell….. then sell.

yeah, it's all good fun until somebody loses an eye....

173   DinOR   2006 May 18, 2:55am  

DS,

"yeah, it's all good fun until someone loses an eye"

Sean, if we are going to have a "superior" market, truly the top of the food chain (one not dominated by empty nester house wives) we need to play hard ball. If that means issuing eye patches, canes and German Shepards with really nice dispositions then that's what we need to do. Total transparency, total liquidity!

174   edvard   2006 May 18, 3:00am  

28 more foreclosures on Craigslist Austin... up to 428. Sweet!

175   DinOR   2006 May 18, 3:01am  

George,

So sorry to hear of your loss. I must say though that you may have set your sights a little low. There was no mention of guest quarters, seperate entrance for the "domestic help" and no pool in sight! I want one of those places they used to film an episode of "Miami Vice" or at least Weekend at Bernie's 2. If I'm going to sell my home pre-crash, and weather this whole mess in a rental I want a pool damn it.

176   DinOR   2006 May 18, 3:02am  

WWII,

How do you find that on C/L? Just plug in a market then search foreclosures? Can it really be that simple?

177   DinOR   2006 May 18, 3:20am  

goober,

Now did I say I was actually going to swim in the thing? That's funny b/c I don't recall saying that. Just kidding. How many people actually use their pool anyway? My point is simply that by keeping "our powder dry" a little longer, all will be possible. I remember after the stock market bubble a lot of clients said this would actually be a great time to BUY! In truth many were already very over leveraged and had no liquid left to play with.

All of us can play this one of three ways:

1. Good. "Well at least we didn't buy at the peak in 2005"

That's great it leaves you with your dignity, but not much else.

2. Better. "We held out long enough that we just bought a modest place for bargain basement prices and paid it off cash (or have mortgage payment about equal to an SUV payment)

This is probably the most sensible approach.

3. Best. "We hung in there until the RE market over corrected to the downside and now have a pool (that we hardly ever use) guest quarters, a seperate entrance for "Lucinda" and have a mortgage payment BELOW an SUV payment.

Dangerous? Fanciful? Perhaps, but is it any less a fantasy than buying at the peak with an IO?

178   DinOR   2006 May 18, 3:33am  

George,

OK, OK....... we'll just scrap the whole "pool fantasy" for now. But how about this? An indoor waterfall! Yeah, a 3 story indoor waterfall with the whole tropical jungle thing goin' on. Exotic birds (to entertain the ever present exotic swimsuit models that are invited to stay on after the "staging" and oblige of course) and ceiling fans (high end of course)?

179   edvard   2006 May 18, 3:33am  

Dinor,
Just go to CL austin, plug in "foreclosure" in the search.. and BINGO! also- try HUD. Lotsa those too.

180   DinOR   2006 May 18, 3:55am  

WWII,

Cool! Thanks.

181   edvard   2006 May 18, 4:01am  

Yup,
I've actually met another person on an Austin Forum and he told me that there are likely thousands of foreclosures. Austin is totally diffrent than SF in that barely 15 minutes outside of the city, the prices drop like a rock. Kinda cool if you ask me. I'm all about buying a mini-ranch for a cool 150k, 30 minutes from Austin.
I get a feeling that severe indicators of a downmarket as evidenced in places like Austin will be contributing factors to downgrading property in SF. I think the mindset that "thank god I don't live anywhere except California" is at this point the only thing that's keeping california from totally crashing.

182   edvard   2006 May 18, 4:20am  

Amen to Foreclosures. My favorite word too... which means: Cheaper housing.

183   DinOR   2006 May 18, 4:28am  

Scott C,

What an amazing turn-around! You've managed to go from "perma-bull" to saying foreclosure is your favorite word? Well this is at least a step in the right direction. When you come to the realization that realtors from coast to coast are having EXTREME difficulty making a 6% commission stick you will be truly on the road to recovery! When the "boom goes bust as it inevitably will" it will hurt everyone and realtors especially. Please read George's post regarding the "future" for big banks in RE and paultry commissions. Start liking it!

184   DinOR   2006 May 18, 4:37am  

Scott C,

Oh btw, once you've actually lived through a true crash you won't need a hairdresser any more. You will (as I have already done, pull your hair out in clumps) making the services of a "hairdresser" completely unecessary. Please do not make any future references to the stock market bubble. You are not qualified to address this topic. You weren't there man! You weren't there. But you will find out shortly. Keep in touch.

185   edvard   2006 May 18, 5:03am  

Wahahaha! All I can say is that it is time for the empire to crumble!

186   Randy H   2006 May 18, 5:33am  

I absolutely hate when they put the “curbs in!” We all understand the implications of programmed trading but this is a FREE MARKET damn it! No one is held captive here against their will.

The curbs were theoretically supposed to break "feedback loops" caused by programmed trading along with all the psychological stuff. In theory, it wasn't a bad idea since program trading can feed on itself and cause exponential growth of momentum in a frighteningly short period of time.

The only problem is that curbs don't work. I've read research that curbs actually compound program trading related problems. Because program trading isn't going to go away (actually only get worse as even amateur retail investors can use some limited program mechanisms now), but we don't want the market to fail due to "synthetic amplification", we're probably stuck with curbs and market shutdowns.

What someone should do is work out an intelligent program trading AI that knows how to spot market feedback and arbitrages that. That would make someone tons of HaHas while helping to solve the market-curb problem.

187   FormerAptBroker   2006 May 18, 6:12am  

Scott wrote:

> The 6% commission rate is not going to go
> away. As a business, no real estate company
> can operate profitably at below that rate.
> Those that try, go broke and out of business quick.

If you sell an average home on my parents street you will make about $300K with a 6% commission, one home a month is $3.6mm a year so it will not be hard to keep the lights on in a one man office for half that….

Stanley Lo is a guy that sells a lot of property near my parents does very well only charging 3.68 (All the Chinese buyers go with him since his fee is not only cheaper, but it has a "lucky 8" in it)...

http://www.greenbanker.com/

188   DinOR   2006 May 18, 6:16am  

tannenbaum,

The DQ article makes less than no sense. In all nine BA counties sales are down 20 to 30%+ yet median price has risen an avg. of what, 2.6 to 16.6%? Sure! I always enjoy the language they use and apparently get away with. "Down payment sizes are stable". Stable. Uh, O.K what does that really mean? "So honey, how are things at work?" "Oh....... stable". I'm sure every wino in downtown San Diego at one time had a "stable" job.

"The use of adjustable-rate mortgages over the last 4 months has decreased". No. The use of mortgages has decreased over the last 4 months, adjustable or otherwise. We could go on but.........

189   FormerAptBroker   2006 May 18, 6:23am  

DinOR Says:

> The DQ article makes less than no sense.
> In all nine BA counties sales are down 20
> to 30%+ yet median price has risen an avg.

Remember most real estate "current sales" data is 4 to 6 months old.

The property that "sold" at the end of April is still in escrow, and may stay in escrow for a couple months then it takes the county a while to actually record the sale and release the data.

190   DinOR   2006 May 18, 6:23am  

I hate to get hyper-sensitive about these issues but with all of the half truths and carefully worded spins the RE marketing machine is spewing out it's kind of hard not to get negative about it. From now on though if anyone ask me "How's it going?" my answer is "stable".

191   DinOR   2006 May 18, 6:26am  

FAB,

How can I "remember" something I never knew to begin with? I did not know that. It's hardly the first time anyone here has questioned "current" median sales price, why didn't someone corrected me before?

192   DinOR   2006 May 18, 6:27am  

make that (correct)

193   HARM   2006 May 18, 6:57am  

@Bap33,

No problem --we go OT here all the time. Remember the "Huh?" thread?

194   DinOR   2006 May 18, 7:06am  

Time Saver

"Indicators of market stress are still largely absent"

John Karevoll and Marshall Prentice seem to have mastered the art of soothing language. John gets torqued off any time someone questions their market analysis. I've read articles where a financial journalist is quite literally getting their head bitten off with some stinging comments whenever they begin to flirt with the truth. Who does this guy think he is Neutron Jack for crissakes.

I can not affix my name to a report where reductions in sales have exceeded 20 and even 30% and still say that "Indicators of market stress are still largely absent". Sorry.

195   DinOR   2006 May 18, 7:11am  

bc,

Randy H is the answer man when it comes to contending with programmed trading. I definitely see where he is coming from when he talks about "amplification". I'll just say that either we should do away with curbs or do away with programmed trading. You can't be "just a little bit pregnant". Either you are or you're not. Since (as Randy suggests) programmed trading is only getting worse, I suggest we do away with the curbs.

196   Peter P   2006 May 18, 7:20am  

Median price in Santa Clara county rose 1K! Big deal.

Did you guys notice that higher priced counties (SF, Marin, San Mateo) are still going up while lower priced ones are going down (Solano, Contra Costa)?

The uppend-end of the economy is probably doing fine in the Bay Area. But credit-dependent markets seem to be hurting.

197   Peter P   2006 May 18, 7:25am  

No problem –we go OT here all the time. Remember the “Huh?” thread?

Huh? The whole point of the Huh thread is that it is impossible to go OT.

198   Randy H   2006 May 18, 7:30am  

DinOR,

I'm not sure you could do away with programmed trading. Unless we go back to all open outcry pits, the technogeist is out of the bottle.

In theory at least, this is just the kind of volatility that the big Hedge Funds are supposed to soak up. Maybe the market is just too large now, and we're suffering the results of essentially "endless resources" when it comes to feedback loops.

199   Peter P   2006 May 18, 8:12am  

Zillow says my neighbor’s condo is worth $579k ($509k - $700k) and he just sold for nearly $699k. Don’t tell me Zillow’s numbers are generally too high.

Where do you live again? Is it near a beach?

Is Almaden Valley a nice place to live?

It seems prices of townhouses in South Bay are essentially unchanged from last year. I do see softness in them.

200   surfer-x   2006 May 18, 8:24am  

he lives in $anta Cruz, $anta Cruz is immune to any price pressure other than up. Ahhh Almaden Valley, what suckers tell themselves in order to believe they don't live in San Hosebag, "I live in Alamden" oh really what's your mailing address, SAN JOSE. If you put a dress on a pig what do you have? A dressed up pig.

I love the crap posted here, truly.

I have noticed that houses in ______ are still selling like hotcakes

What exactly is the point of posting this oh so tired diatribe at this stage of the game? here is what truly truly annoys me about the "housing market", there is no housing market, all a "housing market" does is let scum ruin things like community, family etc because the only thing they are interested in is living in a house long enough to flip it and make some green to buy more crap.

201   Peter P   2006 May 18, 8:27am  

I have noticed that houses in ______ are still selling like hotcakes

I have noticed that houses in Hyperabad are still selling like hotcakes

202   surfer-x   2006 May 18, 8:30am  

I have noticed that houses in Hyperabad are still selling like hotcakes

Sorry to correct you, but the houses in Hyperabad are still selling like naan

203   Peter P   2006 May 18, 8:36am  

Sorry to correct you, but the houses in Hyperabad are still selling like naan

LOL :lol: You are so X-tremely correct.

204   surfer-x   2006 May 18, 8:47am  

record housing stock in Merced County ….. Ranchwood has walked away from half-dones and slabs while some have began trying to sell just the lots.

I have a friend in Merced that just sold his _____ for ____ over asking.

205   surfer-x   2006 May 18, 8:51am  

there you have it,

tinyurl.com/m6y45

the most arrogant of the arrogant boomers has proclaimed a "soft landing" rest easy McDebtors your fauxquity is now permanent.

206   Peter P   2006 May 18, 9:13am  

I have a friend in Merced that just sold his _____ for ____ over asking.

I have a friend in Merced that just sold his naan oven for $15 over asking.

207   HARM   2006 May 18, 9:14am  

My favorite quote from the MSNBC Bernanke article:

"On the issue of risky home mortgages, Bernanke pointed out that the Fed has issued some guidance for lenders and he underscored the importance of borrowers making sure they understand how interest-only and other nontraditional mortgages work.

“We’re not saying you shouldn’t make these loans. What we’re saying is that they be done the right way,” Bernanke told the banking conference."

Nothing at all wrong with high-pressure selling these loans to ignorant, uncreditworthy buyers, and then helping them to "hit the mark" on the income column. It's just that it should be done the "right way".

THE RIGHT WAY:
As you're about to sign away your life on that 50-year NAAVLP to buy your $1.2 million Inglewood crackhouse (a.k.a. "little slice of heaven"), make sure you do the following:

1. Assume the position.
2. Make sure your mortgage broker is wearing protection and has applied a liberal amount of K-Y.
3. Be sure to thank your broker as he slaps your dumb ass on the way out.

208   HARM   2006 May 18, 9:22am  

@newsfreak

:lol:

209   Peter P   2006 May 18, 10:07am  

I see some really nice places in Almaden but the summers are too warm for me. I have slept or tried to sleep there and it’s difficult.

No A/C?

But for certain people it’s all the rage, Almaden schools are rated highly.

Is it better than Cupertino?

210   Peter P   2006 May 18, 10:10am  

Capitola is a nice place. I remember going to a restaurant with a cute cable car (slanted elevator?). The lobster tail was pretty good.

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