patrick.net

I would not say Lord Barry had a role in the loose lending that let the mess happen. I would blame liberal lending rules. Liberal, not like the political use of the word, but like -- the other way to use it. Like, opposite of strict.

yes, there was a definite loosening of lending standards sometime between 2001 and 2004.

vdare is your basic white supremacy site but I can't really object to what they wrote here:

http://www.vdare.com/sailer/080928_rove.htm

(well, I read it about a month ago so if there's something icky on that page I apologize in advance)

Mr Rove was a wonk's wonk when it came to electoral math, always looking for that 0.1% edge that would put his team 1 vote over the other guy (cf Florida and NH in 2000, LOL). IIRC home owners tend to vote (R) more than renters, so there was that impetus behind the lending liberalization this decade.

Not that this is a partisan thing. I think the Dems too would have been unable to resist the temptation to inflate a housing bubble to get out of the tech recession 2001-2003. Who can pass up a free five trillion of cold hard cash in five years?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT?cid=97

elliemae says

In the same vein, though, he’s never denied his culpability in the molestation scandal. He is a huge fan of Glen Beck, who may or may not have raped and killed young girls.

If this isn't an illustration of a statement of a crazy woman, what is? She's a complete, slanderous liar. I have NEVER seen "Glen Beck" due to the fact I don't even own an idiot box, i.e. TV. A complete, absolute nutcase.

RayAmerica says

She’s a complete, slanderous liar.

And yet you won't deny the charges. Hmmmmm, wonder why? I’m really not saying there is a connection, but it does make one think.

RayAmerica says

If this isn’t an illustration of a... crazy woman, what is?

This is! (You're very welcome)

elliemae says

RayAmerica says

She’s a complete, slanderous liar.

And yet you won’t deny the charges. Hmmmmm, wonder why? I’m really not saying there is a connection, but it does make one think.

It really does Make one think. and he (Beck) has never addressed this? ( hahaha)

I love throwing their own crap back at them when they doen't realize you're doing it.

NAZIS!!!!! Socialists!!! there everywhere!!!! and everything wrong now is Obamas fault!( ha ha)

He is just the President of a really broken system not the guy who broke it. well at least not yet anyways.

Danimal says

I love throwing their own crap back at them when they doen’t realize you’re doing it.

Notice how rayray says he's NEVER seen Glen Beck - (wonder why he's yelling at me - he's awful touchy about his alleged friendship with the Glenster), yet doesn't deny he's a fan? Nor will he confirm or deny his involvement in a molestation which may (or may not) have occurred.
RayAmerica says

I’m really not saying there is a connection, but it does make one think.
LOL !!! This is way too easy.

Crazy people never seem to live long. If you don't have a will ellie, you should hurry up and get one. You wouldn't want your relatives fighting over your straight jacket and the 5 cents you're worth now would you?

I really enjoy Glenn Back.

We need more American's like Glenn Beck.

RayAmerica says

Crazy people never seem to live long. If you don’t have a will ellie, you should hurry up and get one. You wouldn’t want your relatives fighting over your straight jacket and the 5 cents you’re worth now would you?

You really suck at this game, Francis.

elliemae says

having driven away most of the posters on the misc forum with my rhetoric and constant personal attacks

LOL !!!!!

We heard you the first time, Francis. The pages are beginning to stick together at this point.

elliemae says

RayAmerica says

If this isn’t an illustration of a… crazy woman, what is?

This is! (You’re very welcome)

Where did you get my picture? I want answers, young lady!

facebook "cartoon yourself" app.

lol

simchaland says

Where did you get my picture? I want answers, young lady!

Your mom. She's quite nice btw. :)

Don't I get extra credit for the "Stripes" reference, and rayray's physical exuberance?:

elliemae says

We heard you the first time, Francis. The pages are beginning to stick together at this point.

I thought it was oh, so very way clever of me.

Danimal says

He is just the President of a really broken system not the guy who broke it. well at least not yet anyways.

As Mitt Romny as put it...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/2010-06-10-column10_ST_N.htm

Has it come to this again? The president is meeting with his oil spill experts, he crudely tells us, so that he knows "whose ass to kick." We have become accustomed to his management style — target a scapegoat, assign blame and go on the attack. To win health care legislation, he vilified insurance executives; to escape bankruptcy law for General Motors, he demonized senior lenders; to take the focus from the excesses of government, he castigated business meetings in Las Vegas; and to deflect responsibility for the deepening and lengthening downturn, he blames Wall Street and George W. Bush. But what may make good politics does not make good leadership. And when a crisis is upon us, America wants a leader, not a politician.

Leave it up to ellie "I never, ever insult anyone" mae to change the discussion from a serious, adult topic into a childish rant. She does this on every thread. At least she's willing to admit:

elliemae says

having driven away most of the posters on the misc forum with my rhetoric and constant personal attacks

thomas.wong1986 says

The president is meeting with his oil spill experts

I think you're being a little harsh on the President. He is on his way to the Golf Coast, sorry, I meant to say GULF Coast this very minute.

When will residential real estate hit bottom?

When the fraud by REA and their fictitious fake multiple offers are exposed and real reform is imposed on the RE industry. Then you will have a real bottom in real estate.

RayAmerica says

I think you’re being a little harsh on the President. He is on his way to the Golf Coast, sorry, I meant to say GULF Coast this very minute

The outcome of his trip is already known. Chicago style politics at work once again.

thomas.wong1986 says

When will residential real estate hit bottom?
When the fraud by REA and their fictitious fake multiple offers are exposed and real reform is imposed on the RE industry. Then you will have a real bottom in real estate.

yep

RayAmerica says

Leave it up to ellie “I never, ever insult anyone” mae to change the discussion from a serious, adult topic into a childish rant. She does this on every thread. At least she’s willing to admit:
elliemae says

having driven away most of the posters on the misc forum with my rhetoric and constant personal attacks

Still masturbating to a typo, rayray?

Ever notice that ellie "I never, ever insult anyone" mae NEVER addresses any issue in detail? To people like her, issues do not matter. The only thing that’s important is they have a venue for their childish little games. I think Patrick should limit this site to adults. Children like ellie really don’t belong here.

This article makes a pretty convincing case that housing has another 10 years to go before it recovers:

http://www.mybudget360.com/lost-decade-housing-real-estate-2010-to-2020-higher-mortgage-rates-baby-boomers-retiring/?source=patrick.net

Zlxr says

We can build sea walls - but where will the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers drain too?

We have already seen several times the rivers flood the central valley. No new news there.
And it will happen again long before the end of the century.

There has been enough disasters the last decade that America could have capitalized on, like we did in the Bush Sr. and Clinton administration. Because the Government wasn't in the business of gaining control of the situation while doing nothing to alleviate the problem. And any and all rebuild efforts have been closed government contracts to Lobby and special interest Friends of the Fourth Reich, gets to make all the profits for them selves. And the goods and materials are imported from other countries.

The Midwest Flood and Andrew did more the economy and "Main Street" than president has done in over 60 years. All of the Wood mills, and various building and construction materials and tools manufacturing were booming from coast to coast, which employed the service sector and the not to mention the actual Construction sector. Everybody that wanted a job had one for that reason.

Bush and Obama's administration has allowed corporate and foreign as well as in Carl Roves case capitalize on all diversity and disasters. While keeping the citizens of Burbdale on a broke short leash. People that need a job can't get one for that reason.

What does this have to do with the bottom?

If you need to ask, you wont know the bottom if it bit you in the arse.

I don't think America would have missed a beat, if People descended on New Orleans to rebuild it like they did for Miami after Hurricane Andrew.
Nor do I think "Americans" would have been so stupid to put all of their Eggs, in the "House Flipping To Riches" basket.
That "WAS" the only game in town, people like to call "A time of Plenty".

That's like eating your own flesh, and calling a time of plenty.

Perhaps that's why Katrina was handled like it was. Buy now or be priced out for ever, would have been a hard sale, with 4 million Americans with hammers and saws in their hands.

I'm thinking at this point, the cheaper houses get, then the harder it will be for Commoners to buy them.
I had to crawl through barbed wire and cross mine fields to get my FHA loan. I'm glad I bought when I did.

And I hope the value falls another 10-20% "For now", so I can do about 50K in sweat equity renovations, with out bumping up my Tax roll, more than I'm paying now.

Now's not only the time to buy, but now's the time to Renovate, don't wait for a Market turn around, Cities will call that 50K in sweat equity 100K in improvements.
But while prices are inherently falling, 50K in renovations, adds Jack Squat to the assessed value, no matter how desperately you tried to make it so. You might get back 60% of your time and money you put into those renovations and additions, if anything.

So even though I'll be doing major improvements, my tax bill will actually be going down, every time I petition my assessed value, to reflect the market value.

So in ten, or fifteen years, when comparable houses in my neighborhood are going for 250-300K, not even 350-500K they were fetching, in '07. I'll be paying taxes on 110K.

Make no mistake we are going to over correct hard, don't time it, or you'll miss out on great opportunities. But do take advantage of those falling values, even after you buy.
Falling values aren't only great for buyers, it's great for owners that aren't hung up on what values are today, and are looking more at a long term values. And just generally want a nice place to live in, with out pulling your hair out following the stupidity in politics going on with RE and the Mortgage industry right now.
Sanity has got to be worth something.

AdHominem says

camping says
What’s the point? There is no “national” house. If nationwide prices hit bottom, but in your local market prices have already gone up 20% or are still falling, why do you care about what the nation as a whole is doing?
The bean counters do this thing, they take a look at the actual selling price of houses. Then they add these all up and average them together. It gives us an average sale price of a home in a given area. Lets call this area “The United States of America.” Then they can record these average sale prices over a period of time and make a chart or graph depicting trend lines. The trend goes up and down. Following a housing bubble there is usually a “bottom.”
Unless I am mistaken Ray asked a simple question.

A bean counter would not look at only aggregate data, but do further slicing and dicing of data down to individual components, individual local markets.

Further analysis down to cities/MSA needs to be done becuase national prices are altogether meaningless and has no worth to any end user of data. Such data is only twisted for political purposes by idiotic journalists, not bean counters.

Published data down to local markets has meaning and is usefull to end users in each market.

National it should be around 2023 or so,

US homes lost to foreclosure up 25 pct on year

US home repossessions spike in August to highest level since start of mortgage crisis

Alex Veiga, AP Real Estate Writer, On Thursday September 16, 2010, 12:04 am EDT
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Lenders took back more homes in August than in any month since the start of the U.S. mortgage crisis.

The increase in home repossessions came even as the number of properties entering the foreclosure process slowed for the seventh month in a row, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

In all, banks repossessed 95,364 properties last month, up 3 percent from July and an increase of 25 percent from August 2009, RealtyTrac said.

August makes the ninth month in a row that the pace of homes lost to foreclosure has increased on an annual basis. The previous high was in May.

Part of the problem we're facing is that the last 10 years of inflation has been built upon sheer debt accrual, both Federal, State, and household.

If that is backed out (by eg the light purple line graphing 30 year mortgage rates moving back up to mid-90s levels) then we may see incomes and home prices fall back to the mid-90s plateau.

I don't see that as likely, but it's certainly possible. That's the maximum stress case going forward, high rates not due to inflation but a buyer's strike on government debt, or the Tea Party twits taking over gov't and walking their talk.

A more likely scenario is the dark blue nominal price line doing another 50% swoon to bring us back fo $125,000 level in 2020. This is the Japan experience.

EBGuy says

Winter solstice, 2012.

This is the BEST ONE as I re read them, LOL Oh god that is just freaking Funny... I like that one Ebguy... lol

Cvoc13 says

You are laughing or at least making fun of my 2023

I see nothing wrong with 2023 as the bottom. Japan ran up 1985-89 and then tanked 1990-2003 as the bad debts were slowly beaten out of the system.

What people don't understand here is that most of the wealth we got in the previous decade was pure bubble wealth. It was fake, and it did not make us stronger as a nation, just the opposite, and just like Japan's experience in over-consumption and under-investment.

Like Japan in 1990, we're a 350lb fatso who needs to get on a tough exercise and diet program. The results to get back into shape will take a long time, longer if we're not serious or take breaks from the regimen. We shoulda started this regimen in 2001, but the powers that be fed us such that we packed on another 50lbs instead.

Japan's recent semi-recovery of the previous decade was largely driven by more exports to us, btw. Our imports were paid for by the bubble machine.

The bubble machine is broken now.

Troy says

the powers that be fed us

Troy, a great "double entendre"

what portion of Japan's recovery was fueled by our bubble, and will that tie-in cause any extra hardship for them?

Bap33 says

what portion of Japan’s recovery was fueled by our bubble, and will that tie-in cause any extra hardship for them?

Tough to know without a rigorous study. The yen is kinda killing their exports, plus they've offshored much of their ongoing production to Chinese partners so 2000 is a lot different from 2009.

Imports from Japan in billions $:

2000 146,479.4
2001 126,473.1
2002 121,428.6
2003 118,036.6
2004 129,805.2
2005 138,003.7
2006 148,180.8
2007 145,463.3
2008 139,262.2
2009 95,803.7

Going with $100B as a baseline, there was ~$40B/yr of bubble money that made it to Japan 2004-2008. At $50,000 per job that's 800,000 export-driven jobs supported in Japan, not insignificant.

Ms. Nikkei is tightly couple to Mr S&P at any rate:

Spring/Summer of 2013 for alot of reasons, but I think the following two are the most interesting and amusing.

Please put on your tin foil hats. You too, yes you, the guy the on the interwebs still running Win3.11 with Trumpet Winsock. Ok, now that we all have our tin foil hats on. I am not too sure that we will see a significant lift from the bottom of housing until two psychological factors have past and they have nothing directly to do with housing.

1. The 2012 Presidential Elections
2. New Year’s Eve 2012.

Once both those psychological events have past people will be ready to believe that unicorns are real, the President will be willing to do what it takes to bring about real change, and that the “New World” is starting out better than the old world that ended on December 21, 2012.

Laugh if you will, but even if you did not believe in Y2K you still psyched yourself up for it one way or another. It was the talk of town even for those that did not believe in it. Everyone knew when the elephant was to arrive. We all survived its arrival and the world was a better place for a few more years. Well a few more months.

For the next two years the President good or bad will be doing nothing that will not help him get reelected. This has nothing to do with current politics. Every President is a victim of the election cycles. No President even one that stands for change has the power to change that. We will be listening to people talking about what should be done about housing markets or what was done in the past right or wrong, but no one will do anything new until after the Presidential elections.

No one uses Mayan calendars anymore. No one really cares that they stop issuing updates for the calendars sometime before the 900’s and the EOL for the product was set for 1441 about 50yrs before they discovered Columbus trespassing on their beach front property. What no one knows is Microsoft Exchange and Outlook was built on a linear time engine that uses mathematical units that are oddly similar to kins, unials, tuns, katuns, and baktuns. Try setting an Exchange Server to the date Aug. 12, 3114 BCE and see what happens. One day before the beginning of the Long Calendar.

All joking aside everyone knows some old calendar said the “world would end” (Although this miss-interpretation is only supported by those that want to discredit the Mayan calendar) sometime in December of 2012. (Those that support the Mayan calendar firmly promote and state that the ending of the Long Calendar does not signify the end of the world and the Mayan did not believe in an end of the world event. They more accurately believe in a changing of the worlds. Sort of like believing the Great Depression was a different world than say the current world of our Great Recession.)

The point here is that next year is 2011 and everyone that went to ground because of Y2K will start getting ready to go to ground before 2012 starts. No one is going to buy a house unless it is in a nice residential area in the underground facilities under the Denver Airport. To my understanding it’s the only local housing market that is Realtor free; for now. The will eventually find it and inflate a great big housing bubble there too. You have to be able to understand all the extra unexplained underground construction and the codes hidden all over the airport concourse in plain sight to even get to bid on property there.

And Finally…

1. I have never seen a real unicorn in person, but yet I know I could identify one in the wild.
2. I do not believe in Presidential elections anymore, but yet I will still vote and wait up for Santa.
3. I do not believe in end of the world scenarios, but I do believe the Mayan Calendars’ used a base 20 system for counting.
4. I do not want to believe that anyone really believes the Long Calendar predicts the end of the world, yet I know I am as wrong as they are.
5. I have all but said I will never buy a house, yet I sill watch for “houses” (not mortgages and interest rates) to become affordable.

The year 2012 will have a psychological effect on housing even though all logic says it should not. Only investors will be buying; waiting to sale to everyone that survives into 2013. We all know its going to be a tough Presidential race and if the world was really going to end no one would even bother running for President as you would never get to serve.

tatupu70 says

Camping is correct. There is no national real estate market–all real estate is local.

Perhaps, but it's also important to remember that employment is local as well and if local economy isn't doing well then chances are your local housing market isn't doing well. I would look closely at the employment numbers for your local region to get an idea when housing in your area will stabilize and then increase in price.

Housing "bottom" 2013-14? IMO, that's optimistic. This slide is continuing and foreclosures are rising. I don't see "bottom" until about 2015 (estimated time it will take to work through all the excess inventory of foreclosures, etc.). From that point, I think the overall market (with exceptions of various local markets) will stagnate and remain flat for at least another 5 years.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/real-estate/housing-bottom-years-2013-14/19636711/?source=patrick.net#articleHeader

I'd say it has bottomed out in the highly desirable major coastal cities such as SF and NYC. There is global demand for property in those areas and a high number of the younger generation of Americans want to live in such dynamic urban areas that developers can't replicate.