patrick.net

During the height of the bubble, mortgage rates were double or even triple monthly rents. Betting on appreciation is unwise. It's safe to buy when mortgage payments with 20% down are lower than rents of comparable houses. If you intend to stay for the long term and have a stable job, you have little to worry about as your monthly fees fixed regardless of the price of your house. Forget about buying real estate as an investment, forget about finding the bottom. Just buy what you can comfortably afford and buy only if the mortgage is lower than rents. If you happen to buy a house that appreciates a great deal, that's just a side perk. Remember, you can only see that gain if you sell the house. If you happen to buy a house that depreciates a great deal, that's just a secondary bummer. You'll only experience that loss if you sell and/or if rents decline. But great depreiation is unlikely if mortgage rates with 20% down are lower than rents of comparable units.

BobbyS says

I’d say it has bottomed out in the highly desirable major coastal cities such as SF and NYC. There is global demand for property in those areas and a high number of the younger generation of Americans want to live in such dynamic urban areas that developers can’t replicate

Freaking grow up, and stop spewing such nonsense.

Thomas, even if BobbyS was wrong about what he said, there is another pull to crowded cities, the unsustainable costs associated with commuting from and maintaining large homes on large lots in relatively undensely populated outlying suburbs.

Sybrib, Commute to/from SF city ? its not a big job center in the Bay Area.

If your stuck in the city limits you pretty much missed on many career opportunities outside the city. The suburbs is where things have been happening.

Besides, the fresh air is much better than the stench of the city.

PolishKnight says

OK, back to the financial incentives: The notion that we will be “very sad” if we don’t buy now because the market will bounce back and go to 10 to 20% increases annually requires another bubble since any such market will require that the entire economy go back to solely servicing real estate… again.

Its just the vested interest and crap they make up. There are 1 Million little Gordon Gekko's in California all calling themself realtors, and each one of them needs your money today.

Back to the original thread. I think the following makes valid points in stating the bottom won't hit until 2014 followed by a decade of stagnation.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept10/housing-bottom09-10.html?source=patrick.net

RayAmerica says

Back to the original thread. I think the following makes valid points in stating the bottom won’t hit until 2014 followed by a decade of stagnation.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept10/housing-bottom09-10.html?source=patrick.net

Let's just assume for the sake of bulls, that the housing has already bottomed, can the bulls give a few reasons why prices should appreciate in near future?

bubblesitter says

Let’s just assume for the sake of bulls, that the housing has already bottomed, can the bulls give a few reasons why prices should appreciate in near future?

no one can justify any increases going forward, and I doubt you can justify the artifically imposed bottom which will not last.

thomas.wong1986 says

bubblesitter says

Let’s just assume for the sake of bulls, that the housing has already bottomed, can the bulls give a few reasons why prices should appreciate in near future?

no one can justify any increases going forward, and I doubt you can justify the artifically imposed bottom which will not last.

I am assuming rock bottom historical interest rate would be the only argument to come up with.

thomas.wong1986 says

no one can justify any increases going forward, and I doubt you can justify the artifically imposed bottom which will not last.

I'd have to disagree with that one. The best argument would be that the economy will recover and people will go back to work.

Look--if you guys think that $8K (the buyers credit) caused the recent rise in prices, then how can you think we are that far from a bottom? $8K is really not a whole lot of money--if it caused that much buying, then clearly people are close to buying already.

tatupu70 says

thomas.wong1986 says

no one can justify any increases going forward, and I doubt you can justify the artifically imposed bottom which will not last.

I’d have to disagree with that one. The best argument would be that the economy will recover and people will go back to work.
Look–if you guys think that $8K (the buyers credit) caused the recent rise in prices, then how can you think we are that far from a bottom? $8K is really not a whole lot of money–if it caused that much buying, then clearly people are close to buying already.

Or it caused that much buying by people who hadn't yet figured out just how bad things are going to get.

More bad news for housing prices:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/09/more-foreclose-sales-will-drive-down-prices/63862/?source=patrick.net#toolsTop

bubblesitter says

RayAmerica says

Back to the original thread. I think the following makes valid points in stating the bottom won’t hit until 2014 followed by a decade of stagnation.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept10/housing-bottom09-10.html?source=patrick.net

Let’s just assume for the sake of bulls, that the housing has already bottomed, can the bulls give a few reasons why prices should appreciate in near future?

Uh, "They aren't making any more land."

"All real estate is local."

"It's different this time."

"Real estate is your best investment."

Zlxr says

China says they will not buy our batteries unless we ship the manufacturing to China and also give them access to all the technology behind the making of the batteries.

This is precisely what happens when the borrower (the U.S. Government) attempts to deal with the lender (China). Our huge deficits do have a price to pay. China dictates to us trade policies that benefit them and are a detriment to us. "The borrower shall be SLAVE to the lender." When is this country ever going to wake up?

RayAmerica says

This is precisely what happens when the borrower (the U.S. Government)

it's the TRADE deficit that is giving the Chinese our money, not our gummint deficits.

China, Mainland July 2009: $939.9B
China, Mainland July 2010: $846.7B

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

So much for THAT thesis.

China, Mainland July 2010: $846.7B
Approximately 10% of the publicly held US debt, by my count. Less than 50% of publicly held debt is in foreign hands.

I don't see the bottom yet. This is one dropped from whopping 559K to 429K in a week.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/5591-Newman-St-90630/home/3991345

bubblesitter says

I don’t see the bottom yet. This is one dropped from whopping 559K to 429K in a week.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/5591-Newman-St-90630/home/3991345

If this was in my area, I suspect the winning bid will be $595k or something ridiculous that tops the original list price. Agents have that much influence.

bubblesitter says

I don’t see the bottom yet. This is one dropped from whopping 559K to 429K in a week.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/5591-Newman-St-90630/home/3991345

Am I missing something? This one was sold last november for $300k...
And Zillow estimate for it is only around $330k

warblah says

bubblesitter says

I don’t see the bottom yet. This is one dropped from whopping 559K to 429K in a week.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/5591-Newman-St-90630/home/3991345

Am I missing something? This one was sold last november for $300k…
And Zillow estimate for it is only around $330k

Since the year built is 2010, I suspect that the sale last November may have been the land only; or maybe unfinished construction.

Vain says

bubblesitter says

I don’t see the bottom yet. This is one dropped from whopping 559K to 429K in a week.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/5591-Newman-St-90630/home/3991345

If this was in my area, I suspect the winning bid will be $595k or something ridiculous that tops the original list price. Agents have that much influence.

I suspect that too. Multiple bid strategy by the seller. I'd be watching to see what price does it sell for.

Troy says

it’s the TRADE deficit that is giving the Chinese our money, not our gummint deficits.

How much in U.S. securities do the Chinese hold? Do you even know? Here's some help in case you're stumbling for an answer:

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Troy says

So much for THAT thesis.

Also, note that Japan is right up there at #2 in the amount they hold in U.S. securities. I wonder if that has anything at all with the unbalanced trade policies they FORCE on us?

RayAmerica says

Do you even know?

Since I posted THAT EXACT FUCKING LINK in my original above, yes.

Now go back to that link and compare China's holdings YOY, and you will find my point.

RayAmerica says

I wonder if that has anything at all with the unbalanced trade policies they FORCE on us?

They don't force shit on us. We're just being sold down the river.

Troy says

RayAmerica says

Do you even know?

Since I posted THAT EXACT FUCKING LINK in my original above, yes.
Now go back to that link and compare China’s holdings YOY, and you will find my point.

As Peter Schiff explains in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkEtArDFNYA :
"Of Course We're Not Going To Pay Back The Chinese" (Greatest Schiff Clip Of All Time).

Troy says

RayAmerica says

I wonder if that has anything at all with the unbalanced trade policies they FORCE on us?

They don’t force shit on us. We’re just being sold down the river.

No way are we that stupid, we'll just run the printing presses at the Fed full steam 24x7 until inflation takes care of all of our problems. Who cares if we owe 900+ billion to the Chinese, in Zimbabwe, everyone's a billionaire: http://reynaelena.com/2009/02/13/in-zimbabwe-everybody-is-a-billionaire/

We'll hire this little boy to pay back Hu Jintao his 900+ billion, but in U.S. Dollars:

That'll show them not to try to pull a fast one on us in the future by trying to make us their debt slaves! That's the beauty and the power we hold by the U.S. Dollar being the world's primary reserve currency.

I'm partial to the SNL skit:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d9c_1258865433

Troy says

I’m partial to the SNL skit:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d9c_1258865433

Oh yes, paying them back with those clunkers the government bought a short while ago is always an option!

Mark_LA says

Peter Schiff explains

While I like Schiff, seeing a room full of rich white guys cackle about middle America's fuckedness is not that pleasant.

This nation is so broken we can't even put the upper brackets back to Clinton levels without a drag-out battle.

We have serious income and outgo problems, I don't want to minimize the spending challenge we face. Non-pension gummint spending is allegedly going to be $5.7T next year. Divided by $50,000 per year that's 114M jobs, about the number of households in this country. Something's rotten in the State of Denmark with these numbers.

Pete--

You forgot the part about planting potatoes.

I have been following House Hunters on HGTV as another poster indicated and there are so many idiots in this country that I suspect housing will collapse further. Why does a family of three need a 5000 square foot home at a 750k price?

Our own excessive consumption will be our ruin. I wish I could do a show that shows the results of these home purchases after the housing collapse.

And it is so funny watching the realtors totally f with and play on the buyers stupid ideals. I bet this family in Richmond VA cannot even furnish their home.

They bought a colonial with a pool and they have two toddlers.

Stupid idea

More proof the bottom is nowhere in sight:

http://housingstory.net/2010/10/03/a-mammoth-one-in-five-borrowers-will-default/?source=patrick.net#post-4519

Why is it every time I read anything written by Nat'l Assoc. of Realtors economist Lawrence Yun .... I always picture a Duck?

Another account proving the Duck Dude is all wet:

http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-house-prices?source=patrick.net#yui-main

RayAmerica says

Why is it every time I read anything written by Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors economist Lawrence Yun …. I always picture a Duck?

Its getting to be very common.

thomas.wong1986 says

Its getting to be very common.

You know the old saying; if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck ......

Clearly you havent been in FLA recently...

Of course there's always a market with homes...provided that the seller and buyer agree on a price ...AND they both have a means.

The baby boomer were the largest generation in the USA...now it's all scattered. Everything these days is made smaller and lighter so the idea that someone MUST have a house is laughable at best.

Heck look at the home shows on TLC and HGTV and you see a few funny things

1) some of the shows are filmed in canada. Canada's currency is nearly equal to the dollar but the housing market is in better shape...

2) some of the show are reruns from five or so years ago....pretty shady

A house is not freedom. How much sense does it logically make to get a house given that businesses can be free to move here and there but yet with a house you are stuck...houses are not liquid assets. You rent an apartment here's first and last months rent and you can leave...I've seen properties on the market for years and years. Let's not also forget the amount of maintenance.

If you can afford it and you know you'll have your same job with same pay for 30+ years ok then it might be a good market. But for everyone else...

Okay, that is kinda funny.

Oh no! More bad news for Larry the Duck. Let's see how he spins this one:

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/110931/the-housing-market-stumbles-again?mod=patrick.net#yfi_pf_main