patrick.net

I’ll start. House bought 2000 for 436k. Peaked at 950k, now it’s down to 750k. Still in the black.

So housing in your area is still ~300K overpriced.

Good to know.

CrazyMan says

I’ll start. House bought 2000 for 436k. Peaked at 950k, now it’s down to 750k. Still in the black.

So housing in your area is still ~300K overpriced.
Good to know.

Personally, I'd love to see prices come back to 2000 levels. I'd love to buy rentals where I live.

To add to the thread I think folks should add their city and even 'hood to the comment, IMHO.

And also how you came about your current value of your property.

Mine's dropped about 200k at the bottom but prices have come up some since then.

toothfairy says

Mine’s dropped about 200k at the bottom but prices have come up some since then.

I have a friend who also lives in the town of Fantasy Land.

My house has dropped about 15% since the peak. I'm in the northeast so we have not seen as large of declines as CA has. And no, I am not underwater.

"Bought one in 2005 for ~500k, went to ~900k, now about $750k."

So you also own a house in Fantasy Land? Can you explain how your house is worth $250k more today than it was in 05?

HousingWatcher says

“Bought one in 2005 for ~500k, went to ~900k, now about $750k.”
So you also own a house in Fantasy Land? Can you explain how your house is worth $250k more today than it was in 05?

I think the $750k must be quoted in BayAryan Dollars which by definition must be waaaay better than any dollars anywhere else. *wink*

Southern Utah. Bought for 140k, went to get a loan in 2006 and the value was a little over $300k at that time. Zillow says in the area of $205k, but I think $160k is closer to reason. I'm not upside down, but am surrounded by alot of people who are.

SE Wisconsin. Value has dropped 13-15% from peak. Peak here was late 2006/ early 2007.

Zillow is useless here. Their prices have never been realistic. My estimated value is based on sales records of similar homes in my neighborhood. I am running a spreadsheet of comps, preparing for our property tax assessment, in case I need to appeal it.

Purchased in 1991. I have about 89% equity. Will have 100% equity late next year.

Leigh says

To add to the thread I think folks should add their city and even ‘hood to the comment, IMHO.
And also how you came about your current value of your property.

Good point. I'm in Ventura County, CA. In my development of approx. 100 homes, 3 have sold in the last 6 months. 2 that have sold are the same models as mine. Both sold for $750k. The house across the street from me which is 500 sq ft smaller closed last week for 700k. There are some people in my development who are still listing their house at 2008 prices. Those won't ever sell.

I bought in June of 2007 and refinanced last Spring. According to our appraisal our house has gained in value approx 25-30k. Because of the in-law apt we've ot a ton of sqft, but could still only be compared to homes much smaller than ours (-1500sqft) Now that 800k homes in the area are selling for 550-600k, they're considered comps and my house compares favorably to some of them (baths, beds, land, sqft, pool, garage ect) I'm so happy I was thinking about getting a boat! Yeah, that's right. Its different where I live.

I'm thinking of starting an appraisal biz and calling Therappraisals: " We make you feel better about the biggest mistake of your life."

elliemae says

. I’m not upside down, but am surrounded by alot of people who are.

Keep you eyes peeled for all the change falling out of their pockets.

Southern NH. Depending on where you are things are bad. Not Florida bad, but EVERYTHING is down a little and some high-tax towns are down a lot.

CrazyMan says

I’ll start. House bought 2000 for 436k. Peaked at 950k, now it’s down to 750k. Still in the black.

So housing in your area is still ~300K overpriced.
Good to know.

More like $150K over priced. $1 in 2000 does not equal 1$ in 2010

chrisw says

CrazyMan says

I’ll start. House bought 2000 for 436k. Peaked at 950k, now it’s down to 750k. Still in the black.

So housing in your area is still ~300K overpriced.

Good to know.

More like $150K over priced. $1 in 2000 does not equal 1$ in 2010

2000 was 3 years after the bubble started and prices already had gone up 100+%. At least in the Bay Area.

By saying 300K overpriced, I was actually being incredibly generous.

Many houses appreciated 100% to 150% from 1997 - 1998/1999

That is not normal. That is a bubble.

1997 is when the funny money from tech stocks started getting dumped into housing.

~2000 prices appear to be where historical appreciation comes in line again.

CrazyMan says

2000 was 3 years after the bubble started and prices already had gone up 100+%. At least in the Bay Area.
By saying 300K overpriced, I was actually being incredibly generous.

Do you really think we will see 1997 prices? It might, in my area that is another 35% drop -- inflation adjusted. We would have to see similar rentals drop 25-35% off their price to keep up....

Housing prices have not behaved rationally over the past 10 years. So to assume that it will all of a sudden behave rationally and return to its "historical affordability" would be a huge mistake. If housing was not rational on the way up, why would it be rational on the way down?

chrisw says

Do you really think we will see 1997 prices? It might, in my area that is another 35% drop — inflation adjusted. We would have to see similar rentals drop 25-35% off their price to keep up….

No, not at all. Where did I say that?

If I found a home I liked today at the 2000 price, I'd probably buy it.

CrazyMan is right.. there was plenty of non repeat influences during the late 90s...
(1) we had nearly $150B of venture capitall fueling job growth from 1998-2000. The funding came from domestic and international investors. See Historical Trend data on the Top Left of PWCMoneyTree.com Currently we down to nickels and dimes in comparison.
(2) we had highly inflated tech stock, of which many during the IPOs of late 98-99 were cashed out and sold at nosebleed valuations only later to crash by 90%. Ariba was $600/share later to crash to $6/share. Much of the "new wealth" were used to buy homes at what ever prices the seller wanted.
Some paid $1M on what would otherwise have sold for less than half. Crazy indeed, but true. Not to mention Stock Options are expensed to corporate earnings, which deters companys from issuing stock options in mass. I doubt you will see the heft valuations ever again, Prices 100-200x earnings.
(3) only after 1 and 2 above we saw 60% of purchases of homes using ARM loans from 2000-2007. You pretty much know this one.

For what its worth, we corrected for (3) above, but (1) and (2) are still pending correction.
So yes, it makes complete sense that we get back to some prior base of healty buying and borrowing. Had prices realigned with reality of actual incomes many post 2000 would not have resorted to ARM loans, but rather the traditional 30yr fixed. If you had to go out and use a ARM loan in 2003, that kind of tells you that not even 2003 were afordable under traditional borrowing.

Eventually all prices will fall back to long term trends... http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NorCal.html

HousingWatcher says

If housing was not rational on the way up, why would it be rational on the way down?

Lack of money for the stupid actors to play with.

chrisw says

$1 in 2000 does not equal 1$ in 2010

Salary-wise it does, LOL. Home buying power now is just juiced by lower tax rates and lower interest rates.

Though the very presence of GOOG and AAPL are kinda skewing things in the PA -> LG corridor.

knewbetter says

I have a friend who also lives in the town of Fantasy Land.

There has been some price appreciation in some areas in the last 4-6 months, but this is all artificial due to the gov. trying to prop prices and allowing the banks to hide inventory and ignore losses.

None of this is sustainable though and when they stop or reduce their efforts to blow another bubble you'll see prices start to slide significantly again. AFAIK they've been trending down in the last few months even after adjusted for seasonal changes and you should see some programs end in April/end of March. So we'll have to see what happens in a few months.

"Lack of money for the stupid actors to play with."

Really? Think again:

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/speculators-house-flipping-are-back-has-the-market-finally-bottomed

From the article:

"This is the magic bottom"

Maybe for the low end, and that's a huge maybe. Mid-high, it's not even close.

Anyone who thinks otherwise will learn the hard way IMO.