patrick.net

TheFinalExam.wmv (1720.3 KB)
Sorry if the link doesn't work but if you haven't seen this is great. Picking a religion is easynow.

damn it didn't work, help

BTW, doesn't hedging implies a lack of faith?

Will the Hell still be a horrible place if it freezes over?

So I am at the local Yamaha dealer attempting to buy tires for Mrs-X's motorcycle. I over hear one of the salespeople talking to Tom McShyster, realtwhore. McShyster said "yeah nothings moving, us experienced agents are still making money but there are too many agents, all the new agents aren't making any money".

Interesting, very interesting. When you over hear a local realtwhore saying that the "new" agents will be purged it is truly over.

@HARM, cat and dogs are currently living together at my pathetic rental.

SeattleStooge,

I hope you'll understand if many of the posters here do not fall all over themselves when you mention "not making the same mistakes twice". As an equity market crash survivor my damn self I think I've milked what little empathy this blog has long ago. (Your observations do not fall on deaf ears).

*astrid did an entire dissertation on why Seattle will fare better than most markets and surprisingly NONE of it for the typical realt-whore BS we are usually spoon fed. None of the "mild winter, openess to innovation, SBUX, MSFT and BA (although no longer) headquartered here" type stuff. More to do w/access to deep water ports and rec. the brunt of the trade growth w/China being the life raft rather than the "Microsoft millionaire receptionist" theory. She can tell it better than I and it actually made sense.

Don't get me wrong, they're still gonna get a spankin' but from a practical standpoint may have a better claim to recovery.

SeattleStooge Says:

> I have been reading this blog for a little over a
> year now and have decided I can’t take it
> anymore, I need some help.

We are always happy to help…

> I’ve been renting for about 1.5 years now.

I’ve been renting for twice as long as you, and probably sold a little early since I waited too long in the early 90’s and lost everything (and I still have a hard time believing that my little Peninsula home sold for over a million) …

> I couldn’t be happier, I live on a beautiful lake in a
> $1.5 million dollar house and I pay $2850/month.

I’m up the hill from a beautiful bay and paying just a little more than you in a flat that would sell for about the same to some TIC idiot.

> How’s that for return on investment for the owner?

Your owner is doing better than the guy that owns my sister’s $1.5mm rental in San Mateo that rents for just over $2K a month…

> I’ve been preaching the housing bubble since
> March of last year when I sold my triplex. I try
> to explain the basics…..housing cost/income
> ratio, rental cost/mortgage cost ratio, etc.etc…

Here is where we can help, you do not want to do this… You will have better luck trying to convince a bunch of Southern Baptists that the Bible is wrong and the world is not 2,500 years old (or was created in 7 days) than you will having trying to convince a typical homedebtor that homes have any chance of dropping in value…

> Even my most educated and intelligent friends think
> I’m an idiot for renting and that you can’t lose $
> in real estate.

All “educated” people are not “intelligent”… There are a lot of super smart guys with PhDs in astrophysics who are part of “creation science” groups who still believe that the earth was created in 7 days…

> Lately I’ve been pointing out what’s happening in
> Fla, Ca, L.V., etc. Seattle is rarely mentioned
> on this blog nor in articles around the country.

Don’t do this socially, people will hate you and not invite you to parties. The only thing worse than a guy talking about the housing bubble at a party is someone talking about how bad things are in Africa (who also hits you up for money)…

> Even though people are seeing the problems in
> other areas I am astounded that the new
> catch phrase in Seattle is that “Seattle is
> different”.

Seattle is different than the Bay Area in that the housing is about half as expensive on average and homes have “lake” and “sound” views rather than “bay” and “ocean” views. The good news is that people in Seattle make more than half as much as Bay Area people on average so you guys are only “way way” out of line with historical valuation multiples and not “way way the f*uck” out if line with historical valuation multiples like we are in the Bay Area…

> A week after a friend said that another close
> friend said “Seattle is Unique”.

Seattle may be unique, since unlike most other cities in the Pacific Northwest it actually has some good looking women, but “unique” will not help the huge number of Seattle people who bought old fixer uppers in places like Ballard with neg am IO loans that will soon reset to above their total take home pay…

Ahem,

On "distress".

How is it that one can have a "moderate level" of distress?

"Captain, the ship is taking on water and the aft generator is out of commission".

But, we still have our forward generator functioning?

Send up our "moderate distress" flair!

People c'mom! Distress is distress. When the bow is about ready to be lost beneath the waves do we have a "I'm totally freaking out" distress flair?

I intend to create a new super pet by genetically splicing a cat and dog. Think of it! An animal with the loyalty of a cat, and the cleanliness of a dog! Who wouldn’t want one?

:lol:

Think of it! An animal with the loyalty of a cat, and the cleanliness of a dog! Who wouldn’t want one?

We do have a dog-like cat. She can fetch small objects like hair ties. She is loyal and is always around us. She is very clean and she smells nice all the time. She is independent and she is a cat.

Her patterns are not symmetrical though. Otherwise she would be a show cat.

Send up our “moderate distress” flair!

LOL

It seems a young medical doctor I used to know has now become a realtor - I just saw his picture and name in the latest edition of the MV Voice. How odd.

I think his wife operated on his wallet when they got divorced. But he's only in his 30's. I wonder if this is a part time gig or if he has left medicine for the cult of RE.

The ship will sink, but we have “some” lifeboats.

LOL :lol:

Ensign: we have received a moderate distress signal from within the delta quadrant.

Starfleet capitain: set a course, minimum warp

I was driving to work this morning going by oh so many for sale signs and the thought came to me "you know, they just are not making any more Baby Boomers, so whose going to buy all these places?"

fyi: There's some asshat going around making spurious posts as "Surfer-X" at Housing Panic, Ben's blog, Calculated Risk. This is NOT our beloved VP of sin and Scourge of Boomerdom, though.

Moderate: Your mast is down, the engine is out, and you've lost your rudder.

Distress: There's also a hole in the boat.

Personally, I think if the labor market stays strong, there is a good chance for a soft landing in most places. Agree or disagree?

I am not an econ person. But if the labor market stays strong, there should be soft landing in the most desirable places.

What is a soft landing anyway?

I soft landing is a landing that is soft.

Soft landing is a marketing term with sufficient feel-good factor.

Don’t do this socially, people will hate you and not invite you to parties. The only thing worse than a guy talking about the housing bubble at a party is someone talking about how bad things are in Africa (who also hits you up for money)…

Seriously. That's why I had to stop inviting Bono over. Man, what a drag.

*unlurks*
@Robert Cote

ROTF

@Peter
I want your cat, allergies not withstanding. If you can't keep her anymore, ship 'er over here!
*relurks*

The good news is that people in Seattle make more than half as much as Bay Area people on average so you guys are only “way way” out of line with historical valuation multiples and not “way way the f*uck” out if line with historical valuation multiples like we are in the Bay Area…

Incomes:
SEATTLE-TACOMA-BELLEVUE, WA: $70800
SAN JOSE-SUNNYVALE-SANTA CLARA, CA: $97100

Home Prices:
Seattle: $394,950
San Jose: $705,000

Ratio:
Seattle: 5.58x
San Jose: 7.26x

But remember, San Jose is much more special...

I want your cat, allergies not withstanding. If you can’t keep her anymore, ship ‘er over here!

Both of my cats have Canadian ancestry. One was born in Calgary.

I am sure you can find dog-like cats there. Just look for Ragdolls or Siberians.

BTW, Siberians are hypoallergenic.

Soft landing = crash

George Carlin had a skit called "Euphemisms" that pointed out as you describe something with more symbols it softens it. Heck, why not even use the word soft! One example was with war veterans. He started with WWI and described "shell shock" then in WWII that condition was called "Battle Fatigue" with Korea it was "Operational Exhaustion" and Vietnam was "Post Traumatic Stress-Disorder"

symbols = syllables

Peter P Says:

Both of my cats have Canadian ancestry.

So, your cats like hockey and curling, eh? How aboot a trip to Tim Hortons?

@Allah, thanks for the foreclosure links.

This Ventura Star article excerpt was already posted over at Ben's, but is worth repeating"

“Mortgage broker Tino Montelongo said ..there are many people who got used to tapping equity in their homes to get cash, but they cannot refinance because their property isn’t worth more today than when it was purchased six months or a year ago.”

“Others, Montelongo said, might have owned for a long time, refinanced several times and cashed out all their equity. ‘They overextended themselves,’ he said.”

So much for the "all those equity-rich homeowners with paid-off homes will prevent a hard-landing" theory.

@HARM fyi: There’s some asshat going around making spurious posts as “Surfer-X” at Housing Panic, Ben’s blog, Calculated Risk. This is NOT our beloved VP of sin and Scourge of Boomerdom, though.

You are correct, not me. I only post here.

@Surfer-X,

Unfortunately, screen name hijacking is pretty much impossible to defeat at sites that don't require registration. The bulls/trolls are obviously quite nervous and have lots of free time these days, or they wouldn't bother.

I watched Foul Play last night and I'm wondering what the Chevy Chase house boat cost in 1978 and what the bubble pricing is today. Any help is appreciated.

Unfortunately, screen name hijacking is pretty much impossible to defeat at sites that don’t require registration.

Not without digital signatures.

surfer-x Says:
@HARM, cat and dogs are currently living together at my pathetic rental.

it's starting already... maybe if everyone gets a dog and a cat, it will bring the crash forward! let's try it. (i understand they get on better if they're introduced while quite young...)

try to convince a bunch of Southern Baptists that the Bible is wrong and the world is not 2,500 years old (or was created in 7 days)

i think it's more like 6,000 years, including adding up the reigns of the judges... let's not forget methuselah et al in our calculations...

it's interesting how archaic middle eastern folk stories can easily substitute for science textbooks and enquiry...

That was an foreclosure rates about foreclosure rates up 319% this year...

San Diego County had 4,069 properties in some stage of foreclosure for the quarter that ended in September, compared with 970 properties for the same quarter in 2005, an increase of 319 percent. Riverside had 4,403 such properties for the most recent quarter, versus 1,297 for the same quarter in 2005, an increase of 239 percent.

Both San Diego and Riverside counties showed much higher rates of increase of properties in a stage of foreclosure than both the state and the nation. From the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2006, the rate of increase was 104 percent in California and 25 percent for the entire country.

Alan Gin, professor of economics at the University of San Diego, said Thursday he was not surprised by the sharp increase in foreclosure activity in the county. He blamed the trend on the region's high cost of housing.

While regional home prices are among the country's highest, wages have not kept pace, Gin said.

"People here had to devote a larger percentage of income to housing payments," he said. "Therefore, they are more stressed and more likely to default."

gosh, it takes a uni professor to learn you that. wait a minute, wasn't david lereah some sort of eminent academic in a former life?

woops, screwed it...
+ 'interesting article about foreclosure rates'
- whatever garbage went in

yes, a very conservative 25%, i'd say... that would be my worst case projection to err on the side of caution...

This is NOT our beloved VP of sin and Scourge of Boomerdom, though.

On the other hand, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery :P

ajh:

http://www.google.com/apis/maps/documentation/

or, if you are using the same cities each time, take a map graphic with city names, and use php or something to add the text to the image.

Oh my...

This will be a September to remember...

For the following cities in Contra Costa County: Alamo, Blackhawk, Clayton, Concord/Clyde, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Pacheco, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, Rosmoo, San Ramon and Walnut Creek:

Detached Pending Sales:
09/05: 392
09/06: 195 (-50%)

Attached Pending Sales:
09/05: 193
09/06: 73 (-62%)

Detached Sales Closed:
09/05: 491
09/06: 322 (-34%)

Attached Sales Closed:
09/05: 208
09/06: 131 (-37%)

Average Sold Price

Detached: -1% (YOY)
Attached: +4% (YOY)

Detached Active listings:
09/05: 980
09/06: 1930 (+97%) YOY

Attached Active Listings:
09/05: 411
09/06: 934 (+127%) YOY

My bullshit analysis which is not investment advice:

First of all, rate of growth for inventory levels is slowing. It was going up in the six months prior around 100 - 250 units per month. Now it's going up very little (0 - 30 units per month). Has inventory peaked? Or are sellers deciding to pull out and wait for the next upswing? What will happen when the rates adjust? Personally, if I see another big upsurge in inventory trends, that means the panic sell-off will have begun. Will it happen? Who knows...

According to these numbers there are about 13 months of condo inventory and 6 months of residential out there. Amazingly, however, condo prices were still positive (4%) YOY and selling for the ridiculous average sale price of 484,022!

Lacking in these numbers is Average Asking Price. That would be nice to know. What are people getting for their money these days? An extra bedroom? Did that condo come with a Jaguar? Or 20k back at closing? Unfortunately, I don't know.

I think if inventory has peaked then it's now up to the other shoes to drop: out of work RE related people, underwater people, loan resets. crap, imagine if we had an earthquake right now!

I will try and call up some RE buddies and see what the man on the ground is seeing.