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Press exaggerates rent increases


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2006 Oct 19, 1:10pm   12,269 views  183 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (60)   💰tip   ignore  

Lately there has been a rash of articles about Bay Area rents going up. This is odd, because there was a big surge in rents in May and June, but not now. Two years ago I started monitoring and making graphs of Bay Area rents on the home page at http://patrick.net/ so I have plotted a huge amount of data, and I'm sure that the rental news lately is pretty boring.

So why the sudden burst of articles? Random noise in the press, or an attempt to encourage whatever few people who may still be thinking of buying a house?

Patrick

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45   Randy H   2006 Oct 20, 3:29am  

One thing I notice regarding rents - it seems like the apartment complexes are asking a lot compared to private owners. My friend is renting a 1br condo in MV for $1150. I saw an ad for Park Place one bedroom for $2081. WTF? Good luck with that.

Renting from a complex carries a premium for stability and maintenance expectations. You are much more likely to be displaced from an individual owner. In most Bay Area cities/counties, renters have few rights and little recourse if the place is sold out from under you and you are promptly kicked out. It has happened to more than a couple friends and colleagues, most of which tried their damnedest to fight with lawyers (one couple were actually lawyers themselves). And good luck getting some absent 100% equity SFH owner from spending more than $50 on a new dishwasher for the pathetic renters to enjoy.

46   chuckleby   2006 Oct 20, 3:37am  

i think it's still possible to find relatively cheap places to rent ( i can vouch for this in the east bay). part of the problem is everyone is getting their info off craigslist or other internet-derived sources, and i think they tend to track higher. If you do your leg work and use pre-internet sources and rent from an owner, you'll probably get a better deal.

47   lunarpark   2006 Oct 20, 3:42am  

Randy,

In most cases you are probably right. Our owner lives out of state and we have a property management company. We've had very few issues, but when we have, the management company has attended to them immediately. Like I said, I think we are pretty lucky. Our luck may run out if he decides to sell, but so be it. It's been a good situation for the last three+ years so I cannot complain. :) We want to buy in 2008-2009, here or someplace else, so if we can just squeeze through a little longer...

48   Phil   2006 Oct 20, 3:43am  

@DifferentSean
Thanks for your prespective on Doctors from the land of Aussie. I guess it is time for people like Skibum to pull their heads out of their ass and admit that they are in the field to make money not to serve the people, no matter what they say. And please, dont tell me their job is any important than anybody else. Nurses and Doctors are in that field to make money period.
I dont want to give you N number of examples to prove that everybody thinks that their job is the most important in the world.

49   EBGuy   2006 Oct 20, 3:44am  

HARM, yes , the BA is different :-)
DinOR, I believe the house julie was renting was sold out from under her and she was forced to find another rental ( or not ? Maybe she can clarify the situation.)
Others: Folks, the BA in not West Palm Beach. For all the people who preach fundamentals, quite a few seem to be willing to bury their heads and deny the rent vs. own metric. The only place we are overbuilt in the BA is out in the boonies where there does seem to have been some flipper activity (see CL postings). At some point, effects may trickles over the hills, but I don't think many prospective Marin buyers want to move to Antioch.
I have (or should I say had) what I thought were two overpriced rentals on either side of me. They have both have been rented. Housing prices and rents will find an "equilibrium" (hopefully with one going up and the other going down). Lets hope the "fear factor" doesn't drive everything up like in the dotcom days :-(
Also, FYI, CL is a Bay Area institution. Almost all rental business in this area is transacted via its classifieds. Yes you do get some flaky postings like "I wish my junk was worth this"... but it is a good proxy for "market rate" in the BA.

50   Ed S   2006 Oct 20, 3:53am  

Another rent report from Mid-Peninsula (Foster City).

Rented 2/2 with a garage last year (7/05) for $1805. Large complex, pools, etc. About 20 yrs old. Renewed rent (7/06)-- mgmt wanted 10%; offered 5% ($90/month) and they jumped at it. For 10% increase, probably would have moved.

Mgmt is asking probably 15-20% more than when I rented (5/05), but there are MANY empty units. Population is also very transient -- constant moves in and out.

Big mgmt company so they probably have a good yield mgmt model (much like the airlines), but it seems that they maximize s/t yield (i.e. -- high prices, people move after a short period). FAB may be able to comment

However, every complex I pass has "Apt Available" signs out. So the big increases may just be a "wishing" price - you can ask any price that you want; the question is what can people pay.

BTW, I also look at C/L from time to time; I don't really notice that rents are up substantially. With apartments, the comparable market is condo's. Given that a comparable 2/2 condo is still north of $500k (monthly nut ex-tax effect of about $3800+), rent or rent + 10% still looks cheap.

51   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 4:05am  

EBGuy,

Uh, o.k so you were right. Usually anytime someone comes here to post about selling above asking IT'S A TROLL o.k? My bad (insert blushing Walmart smiley face here).

My beef with Julie then is why didn't she trash the place!

52   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:06am  

I will only rent from an apartment complex. It is not difficult to screen good landlords but it is tricky to predict if he will sell the place.

53   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:09am  

My complex is fully leased, but they do not have a lot of units.

54   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:16am  

In most Bay Area cities/counties, renters have few rights and little recourse if the place is sold out from under you and you are promptly kicked out.

I do not care about renters rights, because much of them actually hurt renters in the long run.

However, the lease is a contract and it should be fulfilled. I do not understand how people can be kicked-out if a lease is in effect.

55   skibum   2006 Oct 20, 4:20am  

I guess it is time for people like Skibum to pull their heads out of their ass and admit that they are in the field to make money not to serve the people, no matter what they say. And please, dont tell me their job is any important than anybody else. Nurses and Doctors are in that field to make money period.

Phil, Go screw yourself, asshole.

56   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 4:29am  

skibum,

You were kind of "wishy washy" on that last post. Could you be a little more specific?

57   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:31am  

I guess it is time for people like Skibum to pull their heads out of their ass and admit that they are in the field to make money not to serve the people, no matter what they say.

Phil has no clue. Name me a few doctors on Forbes 400! Engineers are probably in the field for the money.

Noone really suffers if the Internet disappears. But if doctors go on strike...

58   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 4:35am  

Ahem,

Firstly, my apologies to Julie. My bad however; I can't blame her if she was unaware that HARM-X Industries has a subsidiary that handles these issues free of charge to Patrick regulars.

Simply provide the greedy "fat stacks of cash" boomer owner address and invite us over for a little "going away party"! If they've already cut the electricity off not to worry! We have a battery powered blender and the keg works manually!

59   Phil   2006 Oct 20, 4:35am  

@SFGuy,
Yeah after your open heart sugery with the best surgeon, and they put in a pace maker and someone screwed up the software in it, you will be very happy i guess. The ABS system in your car didnt work because of a faulty part and you run yourself of the cliff because the brakes didnt work, I am sure you will be more than thankful. Get the drift.

@Skibum,
Name calling is what people resort to when they are cant come up with anything better to say.

60   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:35am  

I dont want to give you N number of examples to prove that everybody thinks that their job is the most important in the world.

I do think that my job is trivial and if I disappear now no more than 3 people in this world will miss me 3 years down the road.

61   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:37am  

If you disappear now how many people will miss you 3 years down the road? Be truthful to yourself.

This is how I rank importance.

62   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:41am  

Software development is a joke compared to medicine. Just compare the moral implications of each job.

63   skibum   2006 Oct 20, 4:42am  

@Phil,

It's hypocritical to call me on name calling when YOU started this by telling me to get my head out of my ass.

Clearly you have had some kind of bad experience with the medical system. Don't go blaming random people for it. You have NO idea who the hell I am - you don't know why I went in to medicine, where I work, how much I make, ANYTHING.

And you are the one who started disparging specific professions. I certainly did not trash engineers or tech people. The only professions I've trashed are the REIC-related ones (sorry George).

Take your anger somewhere else if you have nothing constructive or useful to add.

64   e   2006 Oct 20, 4:43am  

I saw an ad for Park Place one bedroom for $2081. WTF? Good luck with that.

it was probably for Park Place South - the complex above Amici's. That place is super super super nice. Like... super super super nice. Concrete everywhere - super quiet, awesome AC, great w/d in unit. Super super nice.

The cheaper units are in Park Place, down the street. No AC, very thin walls, not so nice parking. Those are still pretty expensive though.

65   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:44am  

I certainly did not trash engineers or tech people.

BTW, I can trash engineers or tech people because I am one. I am entitled to self-hatred.

66   HeadSet   2006 Oct 20, 4:45am  

Skibum,

Just prescribe Phil some painful shots!

67   Phil   2006 Oct 20, 4:46am  

Peter, Do not contradict yourself. Please read what you just wrote.

Does it look like I am looking for sympathy - on an online forum?

Surgeons are born with open heart sugery skills I presume. They dont have to practice at all.

68   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:46am  

I saw an ad for Park Place one bedroom for $2081. WTF? Good luck with that.

We almost rented a $2600 one bedroom from Avalon Towers. It is very nice with excellent view. Only one bathroom though.

We soon realized the silliness of it. Well, even that would be much cheaper than buying.

69   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:48am  

Surgeons are born with open heart sugery skills I presume. They dont have to practice at all.

I feel bad that I called tham sturgeons a few times. I have really bad Freudian slips. ;)

70   skibum   2006 Oct 20, 4:53am  

Surgeons are born with open heart sugery skills I presume. They dont have to practice at all.

Yes, I'll admit it, Phil. I was born able to do what I do. I am god's gift to humanity. And I deserve lots of Ha Ha's for being born that way.

You have misinterpreted Peter P's argument. (I think) what he is trying to argue is that the final engineering product of a computerized ABS system or pacemaker programming is the end result of years of development and fine-tuning. Of course surgeons and other MD's need to learn their trade, but it's done in a controlled environment, and specifically, when they perform an operation on a particular individual, that specific procedure needs to be basically error free. Every single time. You (the generic engineer) do not need to design a new pacemaker for every pacemaker that is implanted each time. Your argument is flawed.

71   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 5:00am  

Ahem,

Regarding rent increases/having rental sold out from under you:

On my list of "Bad things that can happen to me today"

1. NASD investigation

2. Diagnosed with cancer

3. Mrs. DinOR reveals she's a lesbian

_
_
_

39. Rental gets sold out from underneath me.

Seriously guys, if that's the WORST thing that happens to me that day, I'm gonna be fine. AND it's Friday so the "Low Beer Warning Indicator" is fully illuminated!

72   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 5:04am  

(it took 3 years to get all the plans and approvals done, though again, that’s just ancedotal… ymmv…)

This is madness. Landowners should be able to do anything to their land unless public health and safety would be materially impacted.

If neighbors do not like what is happening next door, they can buy the land and keep it vacant. If they cannot afford that, TOUGH.

73   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 5:12am  

SQT,

Please to notice having cancer "not quite" as serious as NASD "cavity search".

I guess it's easier for you and I to have a hardy yuck on this b/c rentals are so plentiful in PDX/SAC! I saw a "Contractor's Own Home" listed for weeks on C/L and now the putz wants to "rent it out" to the tune of $3,900 a month? In Portland? Dude...... Can't wait to refine search by adding "Motivated" and see that one come up!

74   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 5:18am  

I saw a “Contractor’s Own Home” listed for weeks on C/L and now the putz wants to “rent it out” to the tune of $3,900 a month?

Looks like people do not know what a market is.

75   surfer-x   2006 Oct 20, 5:23am  

DinOR, I love you, can we cuddle? ;)

76   Randy H   2006 Oct 20, 5:26am  

I do not care about renters rights, because much of them actually hurt renters in the long run.

However, the lease is a contract and it should be fulfilled. I do not understand how people can be kicked-out if a lease is in effect.

Agreed. I was not intending to make any kind of statement in support of "tenants rights". Like you, I believe that *everyone* should be obligated to perform duties under contracts they've agreed to.

There's the problem. As a practical matter, the process of assignment by the landlord when the property is sold can be used as a loophole for the new owners to legally cancel the contract without damages. The only upside is that, with a letter from a competent lawyer, the tenant can often cancel those contracts and demand refund of deposit without damages also -- but it will cost you your deposit in legal fees.

77   Randy H   2006 Oct 20, 5:31am  

Nurses and Doctors are in that field to make money period.

For an engineer you're surprisingly ignorant. Nurses? Yes, they are so overpaid it is disgusting. And the damned public school teachers too, bunch of greedy bums. In fact, those sneering Starbuck$ workers, with their cushy tips and fancy green aprons...."you think you're better than me, huh?"

For the record, many doctors earn less in salary than many CPAs, MBAs, CFAs, and all the others who sacrifice so hard every day to breathe life back into dead presidents.

78   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 5:40am  

Surfer X,

Yeah sure. Seriously though it's a shame *Julie hadn't informed us earlier so we could have had the "Neighbor from HELL" going away party! You been hearing about the "ghost towns" sprouting up all over Phoenix and Vegas? 80% vacant? Can you say "over estimated demand a little".

Yeah, we're partying 24/7 whatcha gonna do 'bout it? Oh, you're gonna call the cops? In case you haven't heard we've been "UN-incorporated" and are no longer under their jurisdiction! Hey @sshole! I guess they didn't tell you when the realt-whore said "gated community" they might have neglected to mention the gate is there to keep you in!

79   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 5:48am  

Sometimes, they have town-hall meetings on community TV. Oh buy it is difficult to watch.

In short, it is all about residents trying to exercise every right to make things difficult. I compare this to bureaucracy.

The "shareholder of the city" concept is looking more promising.

80   Randy H   2006 Oct 20, 5:50am  

The “shareholder of the city” concept is looking more promising.

So long as it's a real *share*holder model and not some fluffy, anti-capitalist *stake*holder model.

The only way I'll be a stakeholder of anything is if the stake is wooden and I'm holding it piercing the heart of CSR.

81   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 5:52am  

For instance, I was listening to this guy who tried to present a case against building four homes. He said the traffic impact would be too much.

Give me a freaking break.

82   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 5:53am  

The only way I’ll be a stakeholder of anything is if the stake is wooden and I’m holding it piercing the heart of CSR.

Would it be similar to Vlad the Impaler?

83   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 6:02am  

Julie,

I said I was SORRY! It's just that typically when people post about how this or that home sold for "X" above asking (they're usually a troll). When it comes to ALL of the truly awful things that can happen to us in life, this isn't so bad.

84   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 6:13am  

SFGuy,

I was over at Ben's blog and txchick57 had a great link called "maxedoutmovie" complete w/parody of the MasterCard Logo? Most of it was just plain funny like the gal owing CitiBank that rec'd a bump in her credit limit when she was actually no longer even making payments! That's how crazy things have become.

What is really shocking is that the movie stars and pols are on a "special list" where they are given "special treatment"! Anyone with a high profile and access to the media is treated w/kid gloves so any time the topic comes up they're like "What problem?" My credit report is just fine!

Sick ain't it.

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