patrick.net

so you’ re fine with Paris Hilton / Sergey Brin / David Hasselhoff having millions more votes than you?

Extreme stylized examples aside, yes, I'm completely fine with it.

Senor Cote', dude you should have stopped by!

Yeah fuck $anta Barbara, but hey, it could be worse, we could be in Pittsburgh.

DinOR, that's the one thing people forget about, if the landlord gets twitchy take a chainsaw to the walls and floors, pour concrete in the toilet and leave. Keep the fucking deposit asshole. I say scorched earth. "Not one step back" J. Stalin, Stalingrad 1942

surfer-x Says:
DinOR, I love you, can we cuddle?

I think I might be feeling jealous. Is that wrong... gay...?

@Randy H, etc.

Based on the way some here have complained about BA rent control in the past, I pretty much assumed it was rampant. The fact it's not (outside SF proper & Berkeley) makes the reported rent hikes that much more mystifying. Is rental inventory really THAT scarce that LLs can hike 15-20% at will and get it? Things are pretty tight here in L.A., but even so, increases above 10% are still pretty rare.

HARM

Keep in mind the reports of rent increases, my own included, are purely anecdotal. It could well be more a reflection of the demographic of folks who visit and post here more than the overall rent trend of the BA. The BA is pretty big, and not everyone here works for Google, Apple or Oracle, despite the common perception.

"scorched earth" LOL!

"Uh, roger ONE-FIVE we're fixing ta' f@ck with it"

"Uh, that's a roger, bring in all your ships wing abreast and get your people back and heads down......this is gonna be a big one"

Some of the greatest nights of my life were "We're not getting our deposit money back anyway" parties! You know, one need not even "rent" some of these places in the very near future. With all of the abandoned McAlbatrosses and all the parties goin' on they can't bust all of us!

And I don’t really give a shit what the market is like in Florida or any other awful backwater where nobody wants to live. I’m talking San Francisco, where rents are up, and there’s no inventory.

@julie,
Sorry about your situation. However, it's not that constructive to trash places where many posters (and probably readers) live. Doesn't win you many friends.

This probably doesn't make you feel any better, but unless the buyer has a huge down payment, he/she will be paying significantly more than the $1800/mo you mentioned. More like $3K/month+ in PITI.

And I don’t really give a shit what the market is like in Florida or any other awful backwater where nobody wants to live. I’m talking San Francisco, where rents are up, and there’s no inventory.

allah beat me to it, but, yes, San Francisco really is "special". Aside from shitty, cramped, unaffordable housing, the architecture sucks: The San Francisco Paradox
When good cities have bad architecture

@HARM,
Interesting but shallow article. I basically agree with their thesis - SF has remarkably little distinctive architecture. The "painted ladies" are overexposed, and there are victorians in many US cities. Aside from the high end stuff like upper Pac Heights, Presidio, and a few other neighborhoods, there are a lot of really depressing looking homes. Lots of boxes slapped together in the 60's or 70's shoehorned together. What's worse is that a lot of neighborhoods have no trees and are criss-crossed by electrical and Muni wires. You can walk/drive for blocks and blocks in the Sunset or Richmond without seeing more than a couple of trees on any given block. But then again, every city has its architecturally "ugly" side. Boston has the triple deckers, NYC has those weird looking duplexes in the outer boroughs, etc.

Allah,

I can't even get ramen (Top or otherwise) past my nose! It smells like cat pee (to me anyway) but when you're the only "non-asian" in your own home you kind of get used to it? I hate when they don't finish it and leave it on the counter!

Oh, they've made me an "Honorary Filipino"!

(you do know SF is #1 most desirable for travelers/tourists right? It’s not because it’s ugly)

Really? I thought it was the abundant recreational drugs and live sex shows that attracted tourists. My bad... ;-)

I guess alot of people would rather eat top raman in CA than filet-mignon in GA.

The cuisine in Atlanta is slightly better than Columbus OH or Indianapolis IN; I'll give it that. And Stone Mountain. Woot. Who needs the Golden Gate National Recreation Area?

The cuisine in Atlanta is slightly better than Columbus OH or Indianapolis IN;

Great fried chicken and ribs in Georgia. Not too good for you, but once in a while... mmmmm.

Vita Says:

> One conspicuous rent increase on the Peninsula resulted
> from a change in ownership and the desire to start
> recovering the costs of the purchase. In San Mateo the
> Hillsdale Garden Apartments, almost 700 units under
> one owner for 40+ years, was sold to a company this year.

The Hillsdale Gardens was built in San Mateo by Bohannon Development just after WWII when there was nothing in the middle of town (the Hillsdale Mall and Hillsdale High did not open until the mid 50’s).

Essex Property Trust the Palo Alto REIT controlled by George Marcus (who personally gave $15mm to the De Young Museum last year) bought Hillsdale Gardens and is doing a MAJOR re-hab of all the units (many that really need it after 60 years).

In the past few years’ lots of REITs (and other investment firms like Hanover Property Corp. also controlled by George Marcus) have been buying many well located apartments and renovating units as people move.

Remember when you see rents going up by $500 at a property rents may be rising across the board or it may be due to a complete renovation of a unit that added a second bath to the unit and granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances…

come on now! Rat infested (human and otherwise) it may be, but it IS beautifull no matter what this guy says. And that includes its architecture (if you exclude most of the western, southwestern, and southeastern parts) .

San Francisco has a huge homeless population. Palo Alto has the same problem too. Sometimes, I really feel threatened.

SF is actually too cold for me, I prefer Oakland, but I work in SSF, so SF it is.

Is it really that cold? I doubt it dips into the 30s too often.

I cannot stand temperatures north of 75.

@allah,

Just substitute "any city in the South" for "GA" and "most cities in the Northeast or coastal CA", and you are onto something. You definitely get a lot for your money relatively speaking. This was the mantra of nomadtoons/ww2. If that's worth moving when you weigh in all the other factors, I'd say go for it.

On the other hand, living in the "White House" or "Dracula's Castle" doesn't do it for me. especially the dracula's castle part...

Apartment rental and house rental are two different markets. It also depends on the price point.

The closer you get to $3K rent, the bigger the apparent drop in BA. The 1b, 2b places are most subject to increases. I posted a couple of days about friends finding house rental in Saratoga and San Mateo, finding far more choices with their 2.5-3K house rental.

You also need to look at the quality of the stock. These houses come fully remodeled with wooden floor throughout, appliances, and yeah baby, granite countertop. Originally these inventory never came on the market for rental, they went straight from one seller to another buyer. The fact that these newly renovated houses come on rental market already says a lot.

If you spend most of your time outside (day laborer) than that can be a problem, but if you work in a nice air conditioned office, then it is redundant. On the weekends and days off you can just spend more time in the pool!

I just prefer fresh air. That said, cool air is more important.

I do not swim.

I actually think that cooler weather is more productive. Many of the world's economic centers are far away from the equator.

Cold weather is also a natural defense against homelessness.

It looks to me that the future economy there will get progressively while here on LI it will get progressively worse.

Uh, was there ever really an economy on Long Island? Other than Roosevelt Field Mall, real estate, potato farming, and fighting Shoreham?

You should learn, it can keep you from drowning.

I can swim. I just hate swimming.

So is affordable housing.

Homelessness is not about housing.

I can tolerate the heat if it is super dry like Vegas.

It is if you can’t afford to put a roof over your head!

They should really find something to do. I am not against social programs that re-educates homeless people. (At least those who can be educated.)

NYC had plenty of that. Now it doesn’t.

I see that as an argument against global warming. :)

SF has plenty of “homeless” even in August when it’s “freezing” here.

True. Perhaps homelessness is just an artifact of urbanism.

If "aid" continues to be available, the problem will not stop. It is really not in the society's best interest to encourage homelessness. What does this imply?

I’m not talking about social programs, I’m talking about your take home pay being enough to be able to pay the rent on your apartment or mortgage.

I do not think the homeless has the concept of "take home pay". I heard that many cash panhandlers evade tax.

I agree that affordable housing is important. I contend that it can be achieved only with a free-to-build policy. NIMBYism created the misfortune you described.

I’m not talking about social programs, I’m talking about your take home pay being enough to be able to pay the rent on your apartment or mortgage. Over here on LI it is becoming very difficult to hire a cashier because the pay could barely pay the rent…..and if you want to be able to eat (anything at all), you can forget it! Everything is out of wack over here and there are many people who have illegal apartments in their houses because they couldn’t afford to live in them without the extra income.

Rent on LI is strangely high. It's kind of weird because the price of rent tends to be inline or more than mortgages.

Unlike the BA where the price of rent is sometimes the 50% that of mortgages.

Which one is out of whack is open to interpretation.

Maybe but I don’t think so. See NYC.

NYC had one good mayor after another good mayor.

No, there never was, but shhhhhhhhhhhh! Don’t ruin it for them, they think it has a really strong economy!

That's kind of what I thought. I'm from LI - and I'd love to move back. The schools are so much better and safer than here in the BA. It's unbelievable.

(The catch is that the prop tax is like 40% more.)

The point I was trying to make is that I would rather live in a new, big, beautiful, affordable house

So move to NE Indiana. You'll get a hundred acres to grow your own food to boot. You can send us a postcard.

I normally don't like to cross-post other people's stuff from other blogs, but once in a while someone comes up with something so brilliant or clever, it deserves repeating:

From the "Update: State Nontraditional Mortgage Guidance" thread at CalculatedRisk:

"I'm not sure about the definition of 'soon.'"

I hope that clears it up.
Tanta | 10.20.06 - 7:51 am | #

Who said anything about Indiana? I have researched Indiana and it is not a place I would want to live.

I know. Why would anyone want to live somewhere they can get lots of land, a huge vintage home, and good authentic indigenous cooking for less than half the price of GA? I guess some people will just pay a huge premium to live in overpriced places elsewhere.

Bay Area does not actually carry much of a premium. Even in the city most homes are still selling for less than $1000/sqft.

The price/rent ratio is more alarming.

I took a look of the GA homes posted above, they look very prefabish to me.

Most of the tract homes of today are prefab anyway, but there is a quality difference, some better than the others. You can sort of tell from the appearance.

I don't find any of the homes above attractive, they look very much the same, and rather cheap (yes, I have had quotes from prefab builders before, and these styles are among the cheapest).

I've been to GA in summer. Thanks but no thanks.

If I am targeting $350K for a decent house, in a couple of years, I can easily find such a deal in outlying places of BA, like Hollister, Tracy, etc. You pretty much get the same weather, still commutable to the major employment center of North America, and good cultural spots with excellent food.

One lesson I learnt from Great Depression in UK was, those suffering areas are mostly likely to sink further in the upcoming depression, while the booming areas may very well maintain their edge. SE UK never lost its appeal throughout the hardship. Depression is a means to make the current regional stratifcation even more skewed, and that's why I will absolutely avoid places with no jobs nor geographical advantages.

RE: Hollister

Hwy 25 is a 2-lane road.

There is a big difference between cheap and affordable, I thought that you would know the difference.

There is a difference between ironic sarcasm and critique. I thought you would know the difference. As someone who was born in Indiana, and grew up in the rural Ohio/Indiana farmland area, I think I'm entitled to find as much wrong with some New Yorker dismissing my Heimat as "cheap" as you do with anyone who might disagree with your pronouncements.

But that's just me.

But you are comparing Santa Monica, one of the most expensive suburbs of CA to GA, how much is the GDP of GA excuse me? If GA just disappears overnight, what kind of dent will it make on America?

GA is a place that I cannot even fancy for retirement, it is so humid in the summer that you can hardly take a stroll outside. There is a lot of plantation and civil war history for sure, but if I were a history buff, I'd have a better time in the old Europe or China.

@allah,
Those homes just aren't my cup of tea. I agree with OO, they look very prefab and mass-produced. Plus, that colonial brick, multiple gables, double columns at the entryway, no trees nearby the house all say McAlbatross to me. Yes, that's all personal preference and doesn't speak to your argument, but there it is. If you happen to like that stuff, and it's aplenty in the place you are considering moving to, then you're in luck. It's a tough nut if you want a California ranch in the Northeast or a brownstone in California, rather than the other way around.

The only new(ish) stock in her neighborhood is for seniors (a hotel being converted to apartments), She is not a senior, so that won’t benefit her.

Try Metropolitan Apartments in San Mateo. It is quite new.

I'm a little late to this thread but I can't resist the temptation to throw in my two cents. One of Patricks main points in the article about fundamentals is the disconect between rental value vs sales value. This is a well known cornerstone of realistic housing prices. As a result the temptation for those with a vested interest to hail any rent increase as proof that all will soon be right in the world of residential real estate is very strong. But it's all nonsense. Things are to far out of wack to be fixed by rent increases alone. A rent increase that large would require significant wage increases on a broad scale to support it and that hasen't happened. Nor is it likely to happen as wage increases are slow in coming and to a large degree being held in check by cheap foreign labor and the loss of many high paying jobs to outsourcing.
Rising rents may contribute a little towards getting the fundamentals back into balance but the majority of the rebalancing act will have to come from price decreases. At this point prices are so high in many areas that even lower interest rates can't help. There simply are'nt enough people left that are either willing or able to buy into the current market to keep prices at this level. The show is over! The only poeple left in the audience (market) now are the ones that won't leave the theater until the credits stop rolling.

If rents increase is that a reason to buy? No, it’s a reason to move! Why finance some homedebtors overpriced POS!

Well, soon you will find yourself in the Philippines. :)

If rent doubles while price remains, it may be a good time to buy.

Oh come on people -- don't you understand; we have intangibles here! I mean, where else can you get a cable car ride?
Oakland, high crime? Must you believe everything you hear about in the media -- I mean they can't even get the rents right :-)

Randy H. - love your "no counteroffer" bid strategy. Now that would make a great reality TV show. Would like to be a fly on the wall when the RE Agent presents to the client; they may as well just dowse them with a cup of cold water.

The Sierra Club does make some good points regarding where you live and how you spend your income (although it does assume lending standards that seem to have already been uhhh... bent). They recommend a loosening of standards in urban areas.
"Most homeowners devote about 55 percent of their income to housing and transportation costs combined. Families in suburban areas spend 30 percent on their homes and 25 percent or more on their cars. Those in urban neighborhoods with good transit spend a mere 10 percent getting around but 45 percent on their homes."
http://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/200509/lol.asp