patrick.net

Flippers buying from other flippers... haha. I remember thomas.wong1986 called this horse-trading :)

Are those phoenix AZ specific data or what's happening thrughout the US?

Could you look up the trend/data for let's say zipcode 22152, where I am keeping my eyes on?

robertoaribas says

some out the cash buyers are out of state, but not as many as years ago. Most are local flippers, many who do multiple flips at a time.

As far back as 2004 published reports called Californians taking equity out of their homes and buying up out of state property, sometimes 2-3 homes. They were called Equity Locusts. Yes we are sure connected across state lines. Certainly may have put owners primary residence in Palo Alto at risk.

Th Wong,

I doubt it. I know a couple of Phoenix investors ("flippers") living here in the Bay Area; they were blue collar types, not exactly Palo Altans.

The Fortress has a different dynamic all about rich immigrants, dowry money, etc. If the Chinese currency really is allowed to go up against the dollar that will probably make Fortress prices even higher, though it'll likely further stress the finances of Walmart shoppers like us, leaving us less money to "invest" in Phoenix real estate.

sybrib, i wasnt thinking of PA exclusively. Yes, there is plenty of others.

Fortress? Oh yes the new term to describe PA. In a historical context not so accurate.

Nomograph says

robertoaribas says

40% of buyers here have been cash buyers. MOST of these are short term investors/flippers.

You are just making this up. You have no idea who the buyers are, or what their time line is. Ever heard of a REIT?
robertoaribas says

I predict the flipped homes will begin to sit on the market in mass. Flippers are notoriously slow to lower prices, and many will chase the market down.

You are making future predictions based on an assumption that is likely faulted. This isn’t 2007 after all.

Normo I don't know about California but the OP described South Florida to the letter.
The problem with Hollywood Fl. is I'm sure all of the "A" stock is already owned by "Realtor/Investor/Flipper" marriages. While houses in the surrounding cities are dropping like the pants on a Prom date, Hollywood is still hiding inventory, and posting the same ridiculous prices that will never, ever sell at those price.

I bet Hollywood is waiting for better financial times, and hundreds of blocks in Hollywood Florida will be leveled and condos and multifamily homes will replace them. That makes since, because that's what the city/developers/planners were trying to do, before the bottom fell. with in a one mile radius of me, there are at least a twenty isolated multi family McCondos, nestled in between single family old Florida style ranch houses.

robertoaribas says

Also, I am showing homes all the time. In the 150K to 250K price range, over half the homes I show are flips. I look up there tax records and see that it was bought at auction, or off the MLS in the past 3 or 4 months. [plus the listing says so]

lol--personal experience is not a fact.

Arizona is a transient state. Always has been.
Also, even retiring seniors who tend to feel cold all the time (no offense to my geezer peeps) refuse to deal with the unbearably horrendous summers, which speaks volumes.
Good lizard watching out there, though. And lots of big rocks. Not to mention a mind numbing amount of convenience stores which add a unique zest to the scorpion infested landscape.

Who generally does better in a stock purchase, Goldman Sachs or blue collar worker?

If flippers are buying, I'm betting they have a better idea of whats happening. It doesn't mean that new home owners aren't buying because they're unsure of when to buy, it could be trouble buying as well. New starts/New homes are also are fairly low rates now too, which means there should be fewer of those homes available and for sale as well.

Which means new homes vs old homes is going to be skewed as well. Far more old homes on the market vs new homes.

The numbers could be viewed very negatively as well, like you're saying they say.

We're in an economic recovery mode, that was started by housing issues, and over building. To state that you're using a lot of historic information to predict the future seems off. The economy in general appears to have shed jobs, but most large companies seem fairly stable now. Housing isn't crashing like crazy either, which could be part of a recovery or government interference. I'm betting it's leaning more towards recovery now. At this point, housing data probably shouldn't come from new homes selling, because there is a glut out there from previous years (or do they count those? maybe they do) and there is a glut of inventory from the banks.

While the data might not be terribly encouraging, I think using for a harsh negative remark doesn't bode well either.

robertoaribas says

taputu and nomograph took snide attacks at my evidence, but except for perhaps being about to lose their a$$es on real estate, what do they have to combat my evidence? hello? hello?

First off-I do own my house, but I understand that no matter what I say on a random message board it will have no effect on the housing market. Housing prices may go back down again this year, they may be flat, or they may continue to rise. I don't know.

We questioned your evidence by showing that it had lots of holes in it. That is what I have to "combat" it. Showing that it's not as strong as you think it is...

There are new reports coming out the health of the housing market almost every day. This was a bad report for sure. But I try not to read too much into 1 data point.

Who generally does better in a stock purchase, Goldman Sachs or blue collar worker?

The answer is same unless Goldman Sachs has illegal insider information.

Can a Golden Sachs employee get 2% stock return per month? Sounds Easy?
The answer is no. Warren Buffett's stock return is just 20% per year (2% per month).
I am sure no one in Golden Sachs can do better than Warren Buffett.

In some TV Ads, some people claimed that they can get 100% return in one month.
Do the math, you will realize that is not possible. Because if he does that 3 years in a row, if he put down $10k. He will have 67 Trillion dollars !!!

robertoaribas says

So, your contention is that there will be fewer new homes for sale? are you kidding? New homes are started WHEN someone shows up to sign a contract. If there were demand, they would be building them, they aren’t built years ahead and then put for sale.

Of course they are. You are 100% wrong about that.

Ok, before you guys show more teech to each other...

Here's the definition of "new home sales" and "existing home sales" by US census bureau.

http://www.census.gov/const/www/existingvsnewsales.html

***

The Census Bureau collects new home sales based upon the following definition: "A sale of the new house occurs with the signing of a sales contract or the acceptance of a deposit." The house can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction, or already completed. Typically about 25% of the houses are sold at the time of completion. The remaining 75% are evenly split between those not yet started and those under construction.

Existing home sales data are provided by the National Association of Realtors®. According to them, "the majority of transactions are reported when the sales contract is closed." Most transactions usually involve a mortgage which takes 30-60 days to close. Therefore an existing home sale (closing) most likely involves a sales contract that was signed a month or two prior.

***

robertoaribas says

seaside: thanks for the exact definitions, and that sort of backs up my point: the new home sales figure shows current buying activity better, and thus backs up the fact that found in the 30% drop in mortgage loan apps: buyer demand is dropping severely.
We will see the

lol--it "sort" of backs up your point. Although it is exactly the opposite of what your previous post said...

For the 3rd time. I'm not saying housing prices are going up. I'm saying your "evidence" that prices will go down is weak at present.

xenogear3 says

Who generally does better in a stock purchase, Goldman Sachs or blue collar worker?

The answer is same unless Goldman Sachs has illegal insider information.

Goldman Sachs has access to far more information than a blue collar worker. Information does not have to be "inside" or illegal to be of value. When you are a market maker, and account manager for a trillion of dollars of assets, you have access to information that nobody else does. How else do you think Goldman Sachs so consistently brings in the billions in it proprietary trades?

Goldman Sachs isn't buying houses. And flippers are not privy to any special knowledge, so just because they're buying doesn't mean they know something.