patrick.net

Flippers buying from other flippers... haha. I remember thomas.wong1986 called this horse-trading :)

Are those phoenix AZ specific data or what's happening thrughout the US?

Could you look up the trend/data for let's say zipcode 22152, where I am keeping my eyes on?

robertoaribas says

some out the cash buyers are out of state, but not as many as years ago. Most are local flippers, many who do multiple flips at a time.

As far back as 2004 published reports called Californians taking equity out of their homes and buying up out of state property, sometimes 2-3 homes. They were called Equity Locusts. Yes we are sure connected across state lines. Certainly may have put owners primary residence in Palo Alto at risk.

Th Wong,

I doubt it. I know a couple of Phoenix investors ("flippers") living here in the Bay Area; they were blue collar types, not exactly Palo Altans.

The Fortress has a different dynamic all about rich immigrants, dowry money, etc. If the Chinese currency really is allowed to go up against the dollar that will probably make Fortress prices even higher, though it'll likely further stress the finances of Walmart shoppers like us, leaving us less money to "invest" in Phoenix real estate.

sybrib, i wasnt thinking of PA exclusively. Yes, there is plenty of others.

Fortress? Oh yes the new term to describe PA. In a historical context not so accurate.

Nomograph says

robertoaribas says

40% of buyers here have been cash buyers. MOST of these are short term investors/flippers.

You are just making this up. You have no idea who the buyers are, or what their time line is. Ever heard of a REIT?
robertoaribas says

I predict the flipped homes will begin to sit on the market in mass. Flippers are notoriously slow to lower prices, and many will chase the market down.

You are making future predictions based on an assumption that is likely faulted. This isn’t 2007 after all.

Normo I don't know about California but the OP described South Florida to the letter.
The problem with Hollywood Fl. is I'm sure all of the "A" stock is already owned by "Realtor/Investor/Flipper" marriages. While houses in the surrounding cities are dropping like the pants on a Prom date, Hollywood is still hiding inventory, and posting the same ridiculous prices that will never, ever sell at those price.

I bet Hollywood is waiting for better financial times, and hundreds of blocks in Hollywood Florida will be leveled and condos and multifamily homes will replace them. That makes since, because that's what the city/developers/planners were trying to do, before the bottom fell. with in a one mile radius of me, there are at least a twenty isolated multi family McCondos, nestled in between single family old Florida style ranch houses.

robertoaribas says

Also, I am showing homes all the time. In the 150K to 250K price range, over half the homes I show are flips. I look up there tax records and see that it was bought at auction, or off the MLS in the past 3 or 4 months. [plus the listing says so]

lol--personal experience is not a fact.

Arizona is a transient state. Always has been.
Also, even retiring seniors who tend to feel cold all the time (no offense to my geezer peeps) refuse to deal with the unbearably horrendous summers, which speaks volumes.
Good lizard watching out there, though. And lots of big rocks. Not to mention a mind numbing amount of convenience stores which add a unique zest to the scorpion infested landscape.

Who generally does better in a stock purchase, Goldman Sachs or blue collar worker?

If flippers are buying, I'm betting they have a better idea of whats happening. It doesn't mean that new home owners aren't buying because they're unsure of when to buy, it could be trouble buying as well. New starts/New homes are also are fairly low rates now too, which means there should be fewer of those homes available and for sale as well.

Which means new homes vs old homes is going to be skewed as well. Far more old homes on the market vs new homes.

The numbers could be viewed very negatively as well, like you're saying they say.

We're in an economic recovery mode, that was started by housing issues, and over building. To state that you're using a lot of historic information to predict the future seems off. The economy in general appears to have shed jobs, but most large companies seem fairly stable now. Housing isn't crashing like crazy either, which could be part of a recovery or government interference. I'm betting it's leaning more towards recovery now. At this point, housing data probably shouldn't come from new homes selling, because there is a glut out there from previous years (or do they count those? maybe they do) and there is a glut of inventory from the banks.

While the data might not be terribly encouraging, I think using for a harsh negative remark doesn't bode well either.

robertoaribas says

taputu and nomograph took snide attacks at my evidence, but except for perhaps being about to lose their a$$es on real estate, what do they have to combat my evidence? hello? hello?

First off-I do own my house, but I understand that no matter what I say on a random message board it will have no effect on the housing market. Housing prices may go back down again this year, they may be flat, or they may continue to rise. I don't know.

We questioned your evidence by showing that it had lots of holes in it. That is what I have to "combat" it. Showing that it's not as strong as you think it is...

There are new reports coming out the health of the housing market almost every day. This was a bad report for sure. But I try not to read too much into 1 data point.

Who generally does better in a stock purchase, Goldman Sachs or blue collar worker?

The answer is same unless Goldman Sachs has illegal insider information.

Can a Golden Sachs employee get 2% stock return per month? Sounds Easy?
The answer is no. Warren Buffett's stock return is just 20% per year (2% per month).
I am sure no one in Golden Sachs can do better than Warren Buffett.

In some TV Ads, some people claimed that they can get 100% return in one month.
Do the math, you will realize that is not possible. Because if he does that 3 years in a row, if he put down $10k. He will have 67 Trillion dollars !!!

robertoaribas says

So, your contention is that there will be fewer new homes for sale? are you kidding? New homes are started WHEN someone shows up to sign a contract. If there were demand, they would be building them, they aren’t built years ahead and then put for sale.

Of course they are. You are 100% wrong about that.

Ok, before you guys show more teech to each other...

Here's the definition of "new home sales" and "existing home sales" by US census bureau.

http://www.census.gov/const/www/existingvsnewsales.html

***

The Census Bureau collects new home sales based upon the following definition: "A sale of the new house occurs with the signing of a sales contract or the acceptance of a deposit." The house can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction, or already completed. Typically about 25% of the houses are sold at the time of completion. The remaining 75% are evenly split between those not yet started and those under construction.

Existing home sales data are provided by the National Association of Realtors®. According to them, "the majority of transactions are reported when the sales contract is closed." Most transactions usually involve a mortgage which takes 30-60 days to close. Therefore an existing home sale (closing) most likely involves a sales contract that was signed a month or two prior.

***

robertoaribas says

seaside: thanks for the exact definitions, and that sort of backs up my point: the new home sales figure shows current buying activity better, and thus backs up the fact that found in the 30% drop in mortgage loan apps: buyer demand is dropping severely.
We will see the

lol--it "sort" of backs up your point. Although it is exactly the opposite of what your previous post said...

For the 3rd time. I'm not saying housing prices are going up. I'm saying your "evidence" that prices will go down is weak at present.

xenogear3 says

Who generally does better in a stock purchase, Goldman Sachs or blue collar worker?

The answer is same unless Goldman Sachs has illegal insider information.

Goldman Sachs has access to far more information than a blue collar worker. Information does not have to be "inside" or illegal to be of value. When you are a market maker, and account manager for a trillion of dollars of assets, you have access to information that nobody else does. How else do you think Goldman Sachs so consistently brings in the billions in it proprietary trades?

Goldman Sachs isn't buying houses. And flippers are not privy to any special knowledge, so just because they're buying doesn't mean they know something.

I think it would be very hard case to make that this is going to be a "good" year for the housing market. The case for a "bad" year is much, much easier to make.

Flippers, professional ones, not blue collars who got into the act, who have been doing this their entire career, understand the in's and out's. They understand the carrying costs and how long they can hold a property and what they need to make it work. The ones who do this year after year know their margins. If they felt the market was so soft that they're going to be screwed holding onto a house with no profit potential, they simply aren't going to do it.

Warren Buffet actually said he would *easily* make 50% returns if he had only a little bit of money to work with, his problem is that he's giant who needs to consume entire companies. For him a fair deal, that will make 20% a year is a very good deal.

I don't believe prices are going up. If they are, it's going to be minimal over the next 3-5 years. Are prices going to drop 22% more? Well what would happen if they did.. A lot of really really really bad things. When there is a big list of really really really bad things that are likely to happen, people do something to prevent them from coming true. Housing crashing isn't good for consumers who own homes, for mortgage borrowers, for companies, for banks, for other countries who rely on the dollar, for the economy, for the state, for the counties, for ...............

Who is it good for? People withe cash in their banks ready to buy up for pennies on the dollar, with their dreams of owning house in palo alto for $50K.

Think that huge list of people about to get destroyed is going to let that happen? No. We've seen that for the last 3 years.

Most of the perma bears on here keep saying there is no way they can save the market!
They say that every few months, and every time their predictions are about to come true, someone steps in and crushes their dreams of buying a house for pennies on the dollar.

22% further drop is just too far for the housing market to go. People are teetering on the edge of strategic foreclosures, with 22% further drop that will essentially move everyone who has a loan to that position. From lots of under water, to nearly everyone under water. The entire country would grind to a halt as every sector took a massive beating.

Do I know how they will do it? No.
Do I know they will do SOMETHING? Yes.
Do I know if they will succeed on the first attempt? No.
Will they keep going until they succeed? Yes.

I agree with pkennedy above. We'll see the Fed printing money for the Treasury to loan at 2.5% before home prices fall another 20%.

Unless the tea party and "teh socialism!" twits take over Congress this year. Then they won't have the tools to do anything but watch the mutherf---er burn.

pkennedy says

Are prices going to drop 22% more? Well what would happen if they did.. A lot of really really really bad things. When there is a big list of really really really bad things that are likely to happen, people do something to prevent them from coming true. Housing crashing isn’t good for consumers who own homes, for mortgage borrowers, for companies, for banks, for other countries who rely on the dollar, for the economy, for the state, for the counties, for ……………

We definately need to see additional price drops. I dont see any problem going cold turkey on the Housing heroine and getting back to building a real economy based on real goods and services which will drive this economy. Do you believe someone in Arizona, Kansas, Wisconsin, Virginia or the many other states have any interest keeping California home prices inflated beyond values unsuppored by real earned incomes? Further drops in prices are great news for our local industries and will help fuel economic growth, else your prolonging any real recovery. Let it burn!

pkennedy says

22% further drop is just too far for the housing market to go. People are teetering on the edge of strategic foreclosures, with 22% further drop that will essentially move everyone who has a loan to that position. From lots of under water, to nearly everyone under water. The entire country would grind to a halt as every sector took a massive beating

We saw 40-50% declines before we will see it again and live through it. So a few people will learn the hard way not to mess with RE speculation. So what no big deal, you will live.

xenogear3 says

Who generally does better in a stock purchase, Goldman Sachs or blue collar worker?

Peter Lynch would say its the blue collar guy! He is pushing extra hours shipping that extra batch of goods out the door by month end because demand is high. He would know first long before Wall Street even gets a clue a month after quarter end results were published. The opposite is also true.

first 20% down? Didn't most people say pennies on the dollar! So yes, they did stop it. And they're watching it carefully now.

7 Million jobs, yes bad. How much has that number grown over the last 6 months to a year? No, it's been terrible, but some jobs have been created. Some haven't. How many more COULD have been lost? That is hard to judge as well.

I'll use this logic.

You're about to rear end a car.
1) You say !@#$ it, and slam on the gas to get there faster
2) Let go of the steering wheel and just yell
3) Slam on the brakes and slide into the car
4) Hit the gas so you can steer around the accident.

How many would go for #1? 0. How about #2. Some really unprepared people who can't deal with anything. That leaves 3 and 4 as the the majority here.

Yeah #1 and #2 are possible. And that's where people are aiming for right now.

Government should get out of the way so we can slam that car in front of us really fast and get this over with! Everyone should just let go and let housing go wherever it wants to!

No one lets their investments, economy and general well being just go like that. People WILL do what it takes to stop it. Just because you can't understand how they'll do it, doesn't mean it won't happen. You didn't see the government stopping the pennies on the dollar house buying spree you envisioned years ago. Because you were hoping for full speed crash.

So I might not know WHAT they are going to do, but I do know they will do SOMETHING. And it will get progressively more aggressive.

robertoaribas says

More evidence:
New home purchases [which are counted when the contract is signed, not when the home closes like existing home sales are counted] dropped 30% in may. they dropped to the lowest number in 47 years of record keeping.
Say that again: Lowest amount on records going back 40 years. Why does this matter to existing home sales? First off, flippers don’t buy new homes, people who want to live in buy them. and second off, this number is forward looking; It backs up the mortgage application number, meaning we are going to see home buying drop off a cliff, at least by people who want to live in the home.
taputu and nomograph took snide attacks at my evidence, but except for perhaps being about to lose their a$$es on real estate, what do they have to combat my evidence? hello? hello?

Obsevrations:

*New home sales of single family homes dropped from 44K in April 2010 to 28K in May 2010. The annualizing thing is confusing. A 4 month average is a better indicator. The mix of housing sold is probably much more completed homes and near completion than in the past. The tax credit has a lot to do with 44K-28K.

* San Francisco rarely builds new single family homes. Ditto for any true prime area in San Francisco Bay area. From that perspectively SFBA is not really part of this data set.

* New home sales is down because new homes available for sales has been down in all classes, un-built, under construction and completed. There is about 214K in supply, about 85K of which is in completed status. I think the peak was around 600K available in a robust market. The supply will go down as well, which will keep inventory to sales ratio under 10 even as new home sales continue to trend lower.

* because of the low level of construction, existing homes sales outnumber new homes sales 10-1 to 15-1 making the impact of this index not as important. It is important in the fact that construction jobs and related are not coming back, and therefore job recovery will not be back.

*May existing dropped 2.3% month-month but up 19% y-y, It will be down significanly in the summer as the tax effect credit takes hold. But that is expected, the real key will be transaction this fall 4Q-2010. At that point, the fundamentals, whatever that is will take over. If you really want to know what is happening right now, go talk to a trusted agent and see what is happening in the trenches right now or go see for yourself what demand is like currently. Mark some properties on the property forum for discussion.

Troy says

I agree with pkennedy above. We’ll see the Fed printing money for the Treasury to loan at 2.5% before home prices fall another 20%.

Japan's now at 2%. And they printed like no other country with a modern currency. That didn't stop prices from falling for 20 years. I seriously doubt the Fed will monetize bad debt. Not in the foreseeable future.

Some people seem to think the Fed and Treasury are all powerful and can just magically make home prices go up, make lending and inflation happen, etc. They have not been paying attention to what's been happening over the last few years. I'm kind of baffled by comments like pkennedy's. Declining assets values would be bad for most people, so the government will stop it? It makes no sense. Asset prices are just what people will pay for them, or credibly promise to pay for them, and you can't force that.

My guess: Nationally we've seen the worst of the fall, now it's just a slow 5 year bottom scrape. This web site will be long gone before people even consider homes as an investment class again.

The logic is that,

1 house price fall
2 less house get build so some people out of job
3 these out-of-job people don't buy house, so house price fall some more
4 more people out of job
5 go back to step 3 and 4

Eventually, everyone will be out of job.

No need to get snarky - nomo & tat have points too. You are posting your opinion, and they're calling you on it because they disagree with the hypothesis based on your evidence.

Nomograph says

You are just making this up.

You respond with:
robertoaribas says

No sir, these are facts. The 40% cash buyers is from the Arizona School of Real Estate. Also, I am showing homes all the time. In the 150K to 250K price range, over half the homes I show are flips. I look up there tax records and see that it was bought at auction, or off the MLS in the past 3 or 4 months. [plus the listing says so]

Wouldn't you agree that you are quoting a private real estate school in an area that is hardest hit by the recession - and that the facts you present may not be applicable in other areas? You are also providing anecdotal evidence - and many wise men have said, "the plural of anectodote is not data." Just sayin'.

tatupu70 says

There are new reports coming out the health of the housing market almost every day. This was a bad report for sure. But I try not to read too much into 1 data point.

You respond with:
robertoaribas says

taputu:Except for calling me wrong with zero knowledge about each of the issues, what is your point? do you have ostrich dna that you try so hard to stick your head in the sand? its ok dude! your home value is going to drop, get used to it before you cause yourself psychological damage from all the mental contortions!

You say:
robertoaribas says

As the flippers have trouble moving their projects, they will slow down their purchases of bank owned properties, and their buying at auctions. So, by fall, I expect the signs of a supply /demand imbalance to be too big to ignore.

So, my question is this: if there is an unforeseeable catastrophic event - something that could never happen in a hundred years - something that could only happen through a comedy of errors of epic proportions that would negatively affect a huge area of the country and multiple industries - and the environment which includes tourism and housing sales in the area - something such as, well, an oil spill in the Gulf that is carried by the currents to far away tourist spots and rendering expensive beachfront mansions unusable and virtually unsellable - if this event WERE to ever occur, would the resulting economic impact upon the housing industry in that area be directly correlated to your theory on flipping and reflipping driving another drop in housing?

I don't agree, or disagree with your hypothesis. I do, however, question your methodology and the ability to apply your conclusion across the board. The people who've posted responses deserve better than

"robertoaribas says

sorry if facts interfere with your pretty picture of the world, but don’t worry, you can bop along as ignorant as ever, and accuse someone who knows what is going on of “making things up”

Troy says

I agree with pkennedy above. We’ll see the Fed printing money for the Treasury to loan at 2.5% before home prices fall another 20%.
Unless the tea party and “teh socialism!” twits take over Congress this year. Then they won’t have the tools to do anything but watch the mutherf—er burn.

That's a big "unless." Right now, unfortunately, we seem to be on a clear path to reverting right back to where we were in 2000 by 2012, Repub controlled Congress and instead of George W. it's gonna be Palin. If that happens, I could completely see them saying no to more spending/printing.

San Francisco rarely builds new single family homes. Ditto for any true prime area in San Francisco Bay area.
This is true; however, condos were constructed during the boom. They are starting to crash in the urban core. For example, here's a building I profiled recently in SF: The Beacon. They also are having their share of building problems (with a lawsuit outstanding against the developer).
They've had quite a few foreclosures already, and this is what's up and coming. You can go here to resolve parcel numbers (APNs) to Unit numbers.
APN 8702012* - NOTS May 27, 2010 (CitiMortgage, May 2, 2007)
APN 8702013 - NOD April 30, 2010 (National City, May 8, 2007)
APN 8702018 - NOD April 20, 2010 (Americorp Funding, July 28, 2006)
APN 8702054 - NOTS Jan. 15, 2010 (CitiMortgage, May 2, 2007)
APN 8702058 - Cancelled NOD on April 26, 2010 (NOTS on March 10, 2010). CitiMortgage, April 16, 2007. Will be interesting to see if the owner stays current.
APN 8702068 - NOTS Dec. 22, 2009 (JPM, June 14, 2007)
APN 8702084* - NOTS Dec. 30, 2009 (JPM, April 30, 2007)
APN 8702113* - NOTS May 25, 2010 (CitiMortgage, Nov. 15, 2006)
APN 8702129 - NOD Feb. 25, 2010 (Wells Fargo, Oct. 16, 2007)
APN 8702141 - NOD April 29, 2010 (Wells Fargo, March 16, 2007)
APN 8702152 - NOTS April 15, 2010 (Astoria Federal Mortgage, Sept. 21, 2007)
APN 8702157 - NOTS July 16, 2009 (Wells Fargo, March 27, 2006)
APN 8702160 - NOD April 12, 2010 (Wells Fargo, April 25, 2007)
APN 8702213 - NOD April 6, 2010 (MortgageIt,Inc., May 23, 2007)
APN 8702242* - Trustee Deed May 14, 2010 (ABN AMRO, May 7, 2007)
APN 8702245 - NOD Feb. 9, 2010 (Beneficial California, Inc., Aug. 20, 2007)
APN 8702264 - NOD May 4, 2010 (America's Wholesale Lender, June 21, 2006)
APN 8702273 - NOD March 3, 2010 (WaMu, July 21, 2006)
APN 8702299 - NOTS March 2, 2010 (WaMu, April 5, 2006)

*Ebrahim Jalili (also owns at The Odeon and One Rincon)

In addition, I ran across several folks not paying their HOAs, which, on occasion, is a prelude to foreclosure. I think we're going to get into a push pull scenario soon, where folks in outer areas begin to find the core more "affordable", this, in turn, will affect the areas that have already been hard hit (which entices folks looking for a SFH out of the core, which in turn lowers core prices -- and so on, for the next 10 years?!)

robertoaribas says

An unforseeable chatestrophic event could effect real estate in one area: You really going to go with this? Looking at macro econmic data is a waste because, somewhere, some town might go counter to the trend? ok, then just don’t think at all! that would make all discussion of real estate trends useless!

Looking at macro data isn't a waste of time at all, but extrapolating from Phoenix data is. Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, CA central valley are the special cases.

EBGuy says

This is true; however, condos were constructed during the boom. They are starting to crash in the urban core. For example, here’s a building I profiled recently in SF: The Beacon. They also are having their share of building problems (with a lawsuit outstanding against the developer).

You can add many more smaller developments that have gone up in and around the city. What was a vacent parking lot we saw 6-8 units go up.

robertoaribas says

tatpatutu: LARGE sections of the Bay area are for more like Phoenix, than they are like the Fortress.

Not really--Phoenix has lots of new housing devlopments. It was very easy to build and as a conseqence, the area became vastly overbuilt. I don't live in the Bay Area, but my feeling is that new housing developments weren't going up at the same rate as in Phoenix.

@tatupu70

Most of the new building in Phoenix wasn't actually in Phoenix. Living in northern Arizona, I have watched the exurbs creep further and further away. Most of the new building done in the last three to five years have been in areas with at least a 45 minute commute from anything resembling a large job site. Anthem is a good example (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthem,_Arizona), and Phoenix has already annexed a number of outlying communities such as Surprise. Phoenix doesn't build up for the most part (some new highrises go in, but nothing compared to the amount of exurbs), just out. So the central similarity between Phoenix and SF would be the ridiculous price increases seen in the surrounding areas with long commutes, and that the communities around SF (Tracy? not really sure of the surrounding towns) grew rapidly just as the communities around Phoenix (Anthem, Surprise) grew rapidly while the city centers themselves remained mostly unchanged. From what I can tell, the large increase in available "housing" in Phoenix itself was the large amount of apartments converted into condos.

New housing developments in the bay area went up in insane areas. Building out Brentwood, Los Banos, Tracy, etc.

Anything with a limited commute isn't going to plunge like those areas, but also new homes weren't built in bulk in those areas, because they were already built out.

SFace has had the best information so far.

It makes sense that housing starts have little to do with established areas in the BA.

The problem is a great many people already living there can't really afford it. Personally I think the next few years will be ugly for them. While I don't expect a 50% drop from the peak, it still wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

Unless we start creating jobs, and high paying ones, housing will continue to decrease.

Man this whole situation is freaking me out. I've saved up 100k and paid off all my debt. I'm currently crammed in a one bed room apartment and really want to purchase a house for a higher standard of living. I'm in the DC area where many of the homes I'm looking at sold for $150k in 2001, sold for 500k in 2006, and are now selling for 300k.
I don't know if the market is going to go down or sideways but it sure can't go up (there are too many short sales and foreclosures). I've looked at three short sales and all of them were completely trashed or needed 30k worth of work to live in (bringing the price up to 300k).
I'm tempted just to buy using an FHA and hold on to the bulk of my cash. That way I can keep the liquidity and if deflation or inflation happens I can quickly make investments to follow the market.
In the DC area I'm unsure if prices will drop. Prices have increased dramatically since the late 90's (200-400%). But the DC area (Maryland and NOVA) have the highes incomes so I think housing will stay high here. Plus with tax rebates I will be paying close to what I'm paying for in rent. I figure is there is a double dip in housing the banks will collapse and our currency will lose it's status as a reserve currency. At which time inflation will probably kick in and owning precious metals will be a safe haven. Well this post is longer than I expected it to be but so be it.

newhomebuyer7 says

Well this post is longer than I expected it to be but so be it.

yup. We all have this same discussion with ourselves. What to do, what to do.

ahasuerus99 says

Most of the new building in Phoenix wasn’t actually in Phoenix. Living in northern Arizona, I have watched the exurbs creep further and further away.

Are they still maricopa county? that's where the data he is quoting comes from - and that's the area that he's using as a model to predict that the country will continue to go to hell in a handbasket.

But many areas are different - I live in Southern Utah, where prices rose almost to Vegas proportions. Then they dropped - not as badly as Vegas, but quite a bit in several areas. Huge developments were stopped overnight, and there are still houses on the golf course near my house that are half built. My friends, who live in Northern Utah, were laughing about the roads to nowhere, partially built overpasses, and subdivisions with walls, roads and a couple of half-built houses with for sale signs out front - the signs referring to the entire development, not just one house.

There are multiple houses with short-sale signs out front within a couple of miles of my house - and all of this was foreign to my friends. My area has been hard hit, theirs has been hardly hit.

If one were to take the numbers here and attempt to apply them across the board, it would certainly skew the numbers.

So let's just agree with the realtor/investor who wrote the op; in Maricopa County, the evidence that he produced shows that prices will drop. But in some other areas, prices will remain stable and in some areas prices may increase. We all try to correlate what's said here to our little corners of the world.

robertoaribas says

By fall, the bulls on these forums will have been proven completely wrong.

I'm just sayin' that's awful strong language - applying maricopa county numbers across the board doesn't work. Not every buyer is a flipper, housing might not drop astronomically as you predict. Congrats on making money. Many people did. Many people didn't.

But the sky isn't falling everywhere like it is in your neck of the woods.

Sky's creaking everywhere tho.

@elliemae

Most of the exurbs are in Maricopa County, though a very small amount are as far north as Yavapai County (the county that I live in). I work with a few people here who have spouses who commute all the way to Phoenix for work everyday (for them it is about an hour and a half) because the housing was so much cheaper in areas like Dewey and Spring Valley, but those are definitely the exceptions.

It was interesting to hear about your area. I had never personally much identified Utah with the housing bubble, thinking it might have more in common with states like Texas, but it sounds like your area is somewhat similar to mine. In Prescott the price of housing significantly more than doubled (some houses that sold for 120k in 1999 topped out at a cool million in 2007, but the average price for a house that sold for 100k in the late 90s was close to 300k at the height of the bubble). Our area was driven by the number of California retirees who moved here, especially after we were featured in a retirement magazine as one of the nicest places to retire. Prescott went from being a tourist town of 25k to a retirement town of 40k with the only jobs being in healthcare for the retired, a diminished amount of tourism, and construction. Now all the people I know in construction have moved back down to Phoenix hoping for work (we had about ten major contractors in Prescott itself during the boom, now we are back down to two; some went bankrupt, a few were caught cutting a few too many corners and moved on to continue their shady dealings in New Orleans after Katrina).

One of the big differences I could see between Phoenix and a place like San Francisco is the number of jobs that were dependent upon the boom. I don't know what percentage of people worked in construction in each city, but it seemed like a lot of Arizona's economy was construction driven, and I wonder how much that was the case in San Francisco, or in your area in Utah. I would think that the more a given are was dependent on construction for job growth, the harder it will be for that area to recover.