patrick.net

ahasuerus99 says

One of the big differences I could see between Phoenix and a place like San Francisco is the number of jobs that were dependent upon the boom. I don’t know what percentage of people worked in construction in each city, but it seemed like a lot of Arizona’s economy was construction driven, and I wonder how much that was the case in San Francisco, or in your area in Utah. I would think that the more a given are was dependent on construction for job growth, the harder it will be for that area to recover.

Construction is/was a huge part of our economy - and the other part is tourism. One is nearly gone, the other crippled. There's a little agriculture, but many people sold to developers.

The Other heavy construction industry has lost the largest amount of employment in terms of percentage, losing 59.3 percent of the jobs from the 2nd quarter of 2005 to 2nd quarter of 2006.

In Washington County, there were a total of 48,777 housing units in the year 2005. This represents a growth in housing units, adding in all 10,335 housing units since the year 2001, or 26.9 percent.
http://www.ecanned.com/UT/Washington_County.shtml

elliemae says

Construction is/was a huge part of our economy - and the other part is tourism. One is nearly gone, the other crippled. There’s a little agriculture, but many people sold to developers.

You better hope its not, else welcome to the third world economy.

It is 110 degrees today in Maricopa County, and will reach 120 deg in July and August.

Anyone wants to buy my house :)

I totally agree price will come down......
GREED IS STILL IN CONTROL
WHAT WE NEED IS 15-YEAR 2% LOANS !!

thomas.wong1986 says

elliemae says

Construction is/was a huge part of our economy - and the other part is tourism. One is nearly gone, the other crippled. There’s a little agriculture, but many people sold to developers.

You better hope its not, else welcome to the third world economy.

I don't have to "hope." It is what it is. I'm not sure what you mean by that...

elliemae says

I don’t have to “hope.” It is what it is. I’m not sure what you mean by that…

Are you gonna just accept that or be a leader in your community and turn things around ?

I'm gonna accept it. As a social worker, I've chosen to save the world, one old person at a time. I doubt that I could change the community doing this. But I'm trying - and I'm damn good at it.

It took 100 years to create and build upon the tourism industry here - it won't be changing any time soon. We're home to a marathon, a triatholon, Huntsman Senior Games, hiking, boating, Mormon history stuff, a college, the regional hospital and associated treatment centers, a low-crime lifestyle for people whose primary homes are in the northern areas of Utah, regional shopping areas, etc. That won't be changing any time soon.

The construction industry tanked along with real estate. That, too, won't be changing any time soon.

Any other suggestions? What have you done to change the economic climate of the area in which you live, and how successful have you been?

Now that corporate America is creating a big push towards amnesty for illegals, no doubt the hidden millionares who've been waiting on the sidelines will rush in to save the day.

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

You’re OBVIOUSLY a RE agent. OR a used car salesperson. Either way, I think I don’t like you.

Hilarious. Anyone who disagrees with you is a RE agent? Or is it just anyone who calls you out for your erroneous statements?

You're the new McCarthy, huh? Finding RE agents posing as regular Americans at every step...

Nomo, you're just making friends everywhere. Did you quit the doctor thing and become a real estate agent? Or have you been in the high-priced, over-valued closet all of this time?

USSA, I mean ray ray, I mean OTS, raise an interesting point. I'm not sure what it is, and it certainly isn't interesting to me...

maybe the border will be closed and the invaders sent home to save California some cash too?

Normograph said:

"...I just don’t buy into the whole meltdown thing just yet. The citizenry of CA is extraordinarily wealthy despite any government budget issues."

Some citizens have money and redistributing that wealth is how they plan on closing the $19 million dollar deficit. If they cannot raise property taxes they will create myriads of other "use" taxes on things for which you already have paid.

Despite a huge budget deficit, they still can find money for $10,000 tax credit for new home buyers. Why? Future tax slaves.

We do not have to believe in the melt down for it to occur.

Nomograph says

You can rant and rave all you want, but it won’t change the facts one bit.

The only people wanting to change Prop 13 are non-Californians. More accurately those who came from the East Coast over the past few years who favor MORE MORE govt spending. Its a dead issue.

I am sure politicians would like to change it too. The Democratic mantra in Sacremento is "we need more revenue not budget cuts."

Here's an idea for the Sac Politicians. Cut the enterprise zone credit.

When downtown San Francisco is considered an enterprise zone and lawyers, bankers and controllers who work within those skyscrapers are considered "eligible" based on where they live like SOMA, something about that credit is terribly wrong. It is extremely lucrative too, not some 1K per employee, it is worth up to 36K per qualified employee.

"The EZ program has been one of the more expensive of the state's many economic development programs, costing the state treasury about a half-billion dollars a year and thus contributing to its chronic budget deficits."

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2010/06/29/2856142/dan-walters-fight-over-californias.html#ixzz0sHvdf0Oq

I personally prefer eliminating rather useless sections of govermment like the the bridge authorities, CAL EPA, and Cal FDA. I am sure there are a hoard of other redundant functions I do not even know about.

I just got a post card in the mail from a Realtor bragging about selling a house up the street in Sunnyvale, CA (94087, Heatherstone St. for those that keep track) for $751,000. Kinda funny though cause the listed price was $980,000 and was on the market for at least three months. I feel sorry for the buyers as you could rent a nearly identical house for less than $2,500 a month. I say less because there is a house for rent three blocks to the north on S. Mary Ave where they are trying to find renters and asking for that amount and it still hasn't been rented out.

I think the sellers made a good decision.

Sell now. Do not look back. Do not try to hold out for some fantasy sales figure. Sell NOW!

Ryan are you talking about this house? Looks like the original list price was 839k

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/972-Heatherstone-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19538727_zpid/

I also noticed that there's hardly anything for sale
some redfin facts about that area:
inventory down 10% vs. April
inventory down 19% vs. last year
sale-to-list at 101%

I wouldn't count on prices falling there unless there's some shock to the system an earthquake may do it.

That's what 700k gets you in California? Wow I don't feel so bad spending $290k

newhomebuyer7 says

That’s what 700k gets you in California? Wow I don’t feel so bad spending $290k

BTW, a house at fox run looks way better than that 700K sunnyvale house.

Toothfairy: Yep, that's the place. I walk around the area and pick up the fliers, it was $980,000 in the beginning. I would hardly say there is no inventory in the area. One went up on S. Mary Ave. (closest cross street is Heatherstone St).I don't know if it is listed on MLS yet, but the asking price is $725,000. (I would say there is a price drop right there.) Not to mention, the other house on S. Mary that is closer to Fremont St. that has a "sale pending", the house on S. Mary close to Remington St. advertising a guest house, the other house on Heatherstone St. less than a block down from the one that just sold. I could go on.

I go check them out cause they are on my walking path and keep track of them. For example, there is another house close by that sold about a year ago for $780,000. The people are trying to sell it now for $789,000 (this one is not on MLS). So far they don't seem to be having any luck.

So, Toothfairy, I would not only count on prices falling further, but I'd say if the people who bought the place on Heatherstone would have waited, they could have got a better deal simply by pointing to the place on S. Mary that had an asking price of $725,000. Not sure how you determined area, but I look specifically at 94087. I measure by taking a walk through the neighborhood and dropping in at the open houses on weekends. Prices will continue go down though the pace of the fall may vary.

toothfairy says

I also noticed that there’s hardly anything for sale
some redfin facts about that area:
inventory down 10% vs. April
inventory down 19% vs. last year
sale-to-list at 101%

I wouldn’t count on prices falling there unless there’s some shock to the system an earthquake may do it.

Let's rewind back one year:

825 Nectarine Ave: October 2009 sale price $851K
967 Heatherstone Way: Much smaller sqft. November 2009 sale price $800K
859 Maranta Ave: September 2009 sale price $890K.
944 Cambridge Ave: July 2009 sale price $815K

Let's rewind back three years:
864 Orange Ave: Only 1040 sqft. September 2007 sale price $848K

Bottomline, 972 Heatherstone Way sold for $751K. Similar properties were sold for more than $800K. Prices are already falling without earthquake.

exactly why/when are you expecting a recovery?

ie. WHAT are you expecting to recover?

Ag is about the strongest player we've got:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/business/media/29nuts.html

but it's hard for 2% of GDP to pull the entire train.

Troy says

exactly why/when are you expecting a recovery?

Well, GDP has been positive for last 3Qs, wages have been rising for 6 of last 7 months. I'd say we are in the midst of a recovery right now. We might double dip and go back into recession, but history shows that to be very rare.

This time might be different, but it usually isn't.

tatupu70 says

wages have been rising for 6 of last 7 months.

How is that exactly a good news? Doesn't high unemployment eventually results in wage growth because the labor pool becomes smaller and smaller, possibly with only skilled workers?

Just an example, the fire department in my city downsized, closed down two fire stations and virtually in hiring freeze. As a result, existing firemen are working overtime and getting paid overtime (and overtime means higher hourly rate). A classic case of wage growth. And it is happening everywhere.

tatupu,

I would not rely upon GDP reports. They are as manipulated as the CPI. Any gains in GDP will be erased by revisions moving forward.

inflection point says

tatupu,
I would not rely upon GDP reports. They are as manipulated as the CPI. Any gains in GDP will be erased by revisions moving forward.

Are you one of the shadowstats crowd? I don't buy into the conspiracy stuff. GDP and CPI are difficult to measure--government probably gets it wrong sometimes, but I don't think it's on purpose. Economists would figure it out pretty quickly...

tatupu70 says

I’d say we are in the midst of a recovery right now.

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/07/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-july.html

"Recovery" consists of returning the the worst of the tech recession!

This time might be different, but it usually isn’t.

Is this one of them there jobless recoveries? Who exactly is recovering?

Silicon Valley Wages Decline 14% Since Dot-Com Boom (Correct)
February 02, 2010, 5:52 PM EST

Even after the declines, Silicon Valley’s technology workers earned about 61 percent more than people in the same industry in the rest of the nation in 2008, according to the report.

So be careful regarding higher salaries, you may loose your job to another state.

Tatupu,

I would suggest the government finds it expediant to shape indices such as employment. I agree that it could be partially error, however them seem to make many errors.

just for the record I fully expect prices to soften going into the fall as they always do.

If prices go up into the fall then there is reason to worry (for the bears).

>If prices go up into the fall then there is reason to worry (for the bears).

wow 4 years of real estate weakness and we still have real estate bulls.
i guess some folks are slower than others.

no one is going to be "priced out forever".

prices aren't going to appreciate significantly any time soon until the economy and employment pick up.
and even then, i suspect, prices will be flat because of the massive glut of distressed properties and oversupply.

i dont think there are any Real Estate bulls left (another bad sign for the bears). Most people are either hardcore bears or slightly less bearish.

keep wishing for those prices to rise because that's the only place it's going to happen.

it doesn't effect me unless Im selling prices can go either way for all I care.
My main reason for wanting prices to rise is because it will lift the entire economy.

But I realize that for some folks here a good economy with low unemployment would probably be considered bad news.

Yes, really backward thinking. In fact the world has changed. Higher home prices will not lift the economy, it has the opposite effect and imped any any real economic growth.

Closer to home... captains of industry state the obvious ...

On The Record / Carl Guardino

Q: So are those really challenges?

A: Unequivocally, yes. Not only to the CEOs in the boardroom, but to any family you talk to in their living room. What we hear time after time from CEOs as well as frontline employees is how incredibly difficult it is to come here and stay here. That truly does have an impact on a company's bottom line when the cost differential is so much higher here than it is in other regions around the state, nation and globe, or the ability to recruit top talent is also impacted.

You mentioned housing. It probably is the top concern we hear about in Silicon Valley from both CEOs and employees in terms of local issues. Does that have an impact? Let me put a finer point on it.

Hewlett-Packard and Dell are the top two computer-makers in the world. Corporate headquarters for HP are located in Palo Alto and Dell is in Round Rock, Texas. Obviously, they both have people and facilities around the globe.

In those two communities where their corporate headquarters are and where a lot of research and development takes place, the median resale price for a home in Palo Alto is about $1.6 million. In Round Rock, Texas, it's about $180,000, except the home and property are bigger.

We hear from HP all the time that a huge deterrent to the ability to recruit and retain people anywhere near Silicon Valley is the housing issue. We don't hear that from Dell, which is also a member company, about their operations in Round Rock. It does continue to plague us and we will continue to sound the alarm.