patrick.net

“a lot less consumer spending in the next few years.”
“drop in spending will cut earnings”
“escalating health care costs”

People dump their homes and mortgages and start to rent thus saving more because in SF BA rent is 1/2 of owning.. With more disposal income availble, consumer spending is still robust. LOL! No doom and gloom
after the RE bust.

After a 55% haircut... those of us with cash (and great credit) on the side lines pick up homes dirt cheap. Only after 55% haircut... and merry way!

Speedos and capes...talk about shock and awe!!

Huh?

Patrick, the FDIC won't fail. If it did, your money wouldn't be worth anything anyway and we would all probably be pointing rifles at eachother's houses waiting for some threatening move. Some readers may want to remind themselves that unless something has changed, I believe the insurance is only up to 100K per account.

My view is that gold is overpriced right now. I've pretty much sold off all of mine. The reason I say this is because gold is a great hedge against inflation, but is a dog during deflation, especially given the speculative runup. Most people on this board I would think aren't expecting a huge jump in inflation though I do think you should keep an eye on interest rates as a guage of what the government predicts inflation will do. Another thing I don't like is that even if it were to go up it needs to go up a lot for it to even be worth the opportunity costs and the spreads of selling and buying. The best I was able to do is sell at 2.5% below spot. You can sell it on Ebay, but the fees make it disadvantageous. That's just my opinion.

When the standing ARMY is no longer able or willing to operate
than yes! Its been defeated It a a miltary power no longer exists.
After two weeks, the Iraqi army ceased to be ...

The Iraq-Iran war lasted 10 years ... no victory for either side.

Diwakar Says:

"It’s starting to freak me out...Where do I put my money now?..."

"Where do you guys think my money will be safe in next coming years?. I’m very skeptical about stock markets/bonds. As I think its going to be taken down by housing and credit expansion."
_____

Michael Holliday scratches his head, ponders the situtation for a second, then reaches his hand across the table, into a bag of Chips Ahoy chocolate chip cookies, pulls one out, and hungrily takes a big bite.

As usual, a crunching sound is heard as half the cookie crumbles onto his shirt, some tumbling in a flurry onto the floor.

He greedily takes a gulp of his midday elixer, Hi-C fruit punch, wipes off the red mustache residue onto his shirt sleeve, snuffles twice, walks over to the window and cautiously pulls back the blinds to take a gander at his broke-ass neighors.

Once again they are arguing incessantly, chattering like squirrels, going at it on the driveway with gusto and verve...Accusations of infidelity now and then punctuate the "F YOUs," and "NO, YOU'RE THE CHEAP ASS."

He turns away in ennui and disgust, just as a wine glass crash sound can be heard smashing against dude's leased BMW as it tears out of the driveway.

Michael ponders his neighbors' domestic catastrophe for a second, sits down wearily, surveys the crumbs scattered on the table, chair and floor, and thinks to himself, "looks like a general state of freakout is preponderant around here now. Is this localized or is someting larger, bigger looming on the horizon? Perhaps the 'fearful symmetry' of a frightful new financial Zeitgeist is taking shape?"

Knock...knock...knock...

Michael's negative contemplative state is suddenly broken with a rap, rap, rap on his front door.

Michael gets up, the crunching sound of cookie crumbs can be heard under his feet, as he follows the trail of crumbs to his front door. But not before sneaking one last chocolate chip cookie for the road.

He cracks open the door a sliver, peers out, then asks, "what's up?" Scarcely waiting for the reply, he munches into the chocolate chip disk.

Diwakar stands there with his frazzled hair sticking up like Einstein. Sporting a grizzled mug and with a quizzical look on his face he pronounces to a bewhiskered Michael Holliday, "I'm scared dude. Where should I put my cold, hard cash?"

Holliday cracks the door open a few more inches, looks Diwakar up and down, as if to size him up, and says, "You're skinny and weak looking. Wait right here, I'll be right back."

After what seems like an interminable length of time, Diwakar stares in bewilderment as a hand bearing two Chips Ahoy chocolate chip cookies emerges from the crack in the door with the solemn pronouncement, "take two cookies and call me in the morning."

Urgently, the bemused neighbor grasps the cookies greedily--with an almost prehensile grip--a muffled crunching sound can be heard as crumbs tumble like marbles onto Michael's porch.

A slight sniffle sound can be heard as Michael quickly shuts the door...

Diwakar lingers like a song on Michael's porch for a few seconds. He stares blankly down at the valuable stash of cookies in his hand, those pearls of great price.

...TO BE CONTINUED

TOS -
Heck anyone can debate after the shoting war ended.

As someone once said back in late 1980's regarding
the US war with Japan in WWII...
"... we won the military war in 1945
... but we lost the economic war by 1989"

we could say the same regarding Communism
"... we won the cold war which was dominated by Russia in 1990
... but we lossing the economic war dominated by China today"

Perverse statement...

How cheap are a few more electrons for the Fed to ship out overnight to a few more of these banks?

Randy and others in Marin will be happy that even after the death threat the Marin Real Estate Bubble Blog is back:

http://marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/

Dont' know if OPCAX is risky, but it seems outrageously expensive.
Expense ratio is .92%, 12B1 fees .24%, front end sales load is 4.75%. Yield is approximately 4.78%

Compare that with Vanguard's California Muni Market fund VCTXX - only expense is .13%. Yield is 3.48%

I'd seen marinite was back a couple days ago. I'm glad too because that blog is often where I point people when referring to Marin's hyper-corrupt real estate practices. Like we were talking about a couple days ago. Marin is one of those places where the law is merely a set of suggested guidelines when it comes to real estate transactions.

Anonymous Cowards are apt to issue various threats to people spreading a message they don't want heard. I just had another round on my blog again recently too, though thankfully nothing like death threats. I hope everyone knows that reasonably credible death threats delivered via email are taken seriously by the FBI, and they will respond to requests for investigation.

Danville Woman,

I have a chunk in VCTXX.

I hope everyone knows that reasonably credible death threats delivered via email are taken seriously by the FBI, and they will respond to requests for investigation.

Randy, you need to apply for a CCW permit. Or do they issue such a thing to regular folks who are not anti-gun politicians in Marin? :)

Jon, I always see the market as a zero-sum game. Randy would strongly disagree though.

Elliott Wave folks are also predicting a big crash, I am not too sure about that though.

Danville woman,

I have a managed brokerage account, where I pay 1% annually and get sales fees waved for most funds. Otherwise, you are right, it would not make sense. I actually should probably switch back to the "per trade" model, since I am pretty much where I want to be. Vanguard probably makes more sense for most people.

Peter - I don’t disagree, necessarily, but if that’s true, then where do you see the average retirement account going?

The numbers are growing. Does that mean that each and every retiree will have increase purchasing power? Or does that mean that early retirees (those who cash out first) will have better deals?

OT: Is WordPerfect any good? Or should I buy Office from MSFT?

The reason I don't worry about the FDIC making good on my deposit is because I don't use CD's. I just use the bank for paying bills and miscellaneous cash.

If I want a CD-type vehicle, I use the Ibonds instead.

I-bonds are not FDIC insured. They are better than that: they are direct Treasury debt. Of course, the Treasury could default some day, probably will some day, so that's why its good to also have a big chunk of your capital into some other store of value besides USD. (Like, home equity for example).

The interest rate right now is 4.5%, federal tax deferred, always exempt from state and local tax. So for most Californians that means tax equivalent yield of about 4.9%. Not as good as the highest yielding CD's, but then there is the tax deferral and SIT exemption.

There is forfeiture of 90-d worth of interest if they are redeemed early, not really much different from the CD penalties. The minimum purchase amount is $50. The max is $30,000 per year. So it's not really an option for the wealthy elites on this website, but it is for the blue collar types like me.

I used and supported WordPerfect last quite a few years ago. I never liked it, as it still used those formatting codes which you toggled on and off. And it was pretty clunky in general with its formatting concepts. We had a hybrid 'best of breed' office solution at the time rather than using suites such as MS-Office, not that WordPerfect was really best of breed, it was just a management-speak cop-out for saying they bought the wrong product, and hadn't thought about the benefits of interoperating. I now do a lot of development and data analysis work in Access, including heavy ODBC querying, and port the results out to Excel for pivot tables or emailing, etc depending on need. I also embed Word docs in Access reports for mailshots and so on. So there's efficiency and capability dividends in interoperating...

Peter P,

Download Open Office and try that first.

I downloaded something called Star Office once, never installed it... :|

hmm, just read about the openoffice-staroffice link. They have a built-in PDF writer, I had to get some flaky freeware thing called PrimoPDF to do that...

As Sun said, it was cheaper to buy another office suite company than it was to buy 42,000 MS-Office licenses for its employees...

There's a lot of mess in MS-Office, lack of consistency of interfaces and some funny dialogs and so forth, and MS-Access uses a mess of ADO and DAO technologies etc. However, I use VBA across all apps, especially in Access to automate a lot of stuff for our business, such as processing e-mail attachments and reading them into tables, and automation into our ERP, including producing a whole alternative front-end...

I use Open Office on my new laptop. The interface can be a little clunky for new users, but all the functionality is there. It's good if you're not a heavy Office user at home.

"More than 40% of Newark homeowners spend more than half their income on housing" (NYT)

Uh... that's "normal" right? Sheesh.

Jimbo,

I figured as much. Many times an "investor class" share is offered without ANY load but often reps quote the "A" share b/c it has the longest track record. They rec'd NASD approval as the new share class (while identical) had zip historic data.

1% is actually pretty low in terms of overall transactions expenses, mgmt. and service. Merrill is about 2% and most are in between. My guess is the rep probably feels you are well established in your field, know everybody that's worth knowing and is at least attempting to leverage your referral base. Throw the guy/gal a few bones and see if s/he will negotiate down even a little further?

What is the deal with the death threats!?!

First John at forsakencraft, the Marin site and I think Mr. Overvaluedblogspot was coerced or given "hush money" to cease and desist! HIM, I could see. He had his "Realtwhore of the Week Spotlight" that identified actual realtwhores and the link to their web-site etc.

Mr. Flippersintrouble doesn't name names (but gets the rest of the dirt to a "t"). C'mon perma-bulls, it's only money! Besides it's not like we were insulting your religion, right? :)

Greg Shrock,

Can you source that? My understanding is that the payout process comes after a long drawn out auditing process, and that it could take months or years before a check is cut to the depositor. I know this was the case in the 70s and 80s, but the policy may have changed since then.

Against this backdrop, Sen. Charles Schumer (news, bio, voting record), D-N.Y., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, and some other lawmakers said the Fed should be open to cutting interest rates.

"Another reason to be open to an easing of monetary policy is the concern that the housing market adjustment is far from over," Schumer said. "Recent housing data has offered little encouragement that the market might be stabilizing. So it is still too early to tell if the worst is over for the housing market," he added ...

The market is eventually stabilizing (prices going back to the mean) and this asshole wants to pump it further???

That's it DinOR! I've had it with you! If I ever find you...

...I'm going to buy you a Leinenkugel.

astrid:

When Hamilton Bank in Miami failed in 2002 more than $46mm in 3300 accounts were uninsured. Since then the FDIC has been selling Hamilton assets to cover the uninsured deposits. They've restored about 85% to each of them to date.

I don't know how promptly insured deposits were addressed, but the time it takes them to address uninsured deposits may be behind reports of audits and delays.

Politicians bug me almost as much as Realtors.

Leinenkugel? They still make those? Outstanding!

I remember "Little Kings Cream Ale" (those were extree good)

I realize Michelle (Malkin) isn't exactly pop pop popular here but her message is to 1) Report threats to law enforcement, and 2) Keep' on blogging! Refuse to be bullied by anonymous cowards. I think we can all agree on that.

Lex,

A few posts back I kind of dramatized the issue but I think there's little denying that "most" in America just "want this behind them". Personally I'm a little ashamed for them? They've had a decade long run of nothing but flipper profits and MEW extraction yet STILL seem to be against the ropes?

Now durn'it I can see if we had ten years of ever DECLINING values and seeking some form of "relief" but this is ridiculous! What's the msg. here?

Save us from ourselves?

When a bank fails, the FDIC usually taps a healthy bank to step in and take over the insured deposits. Depositors have access to their insured funds the next business day.

Loan terms cannot be changed by a bank failure.

Sarasota Herald Tribune, March 28, 2007

Bruce,

Thanks, so only the uninsured funds are affected, right?

astrid:

Please note they describe the simplest possible case - a healthy bank.

But AFAIK it's only uninsured funds subject to these particular delays.

How was the sourdough?

Just as Randy predicted, we now have a noticeable peppering from goldbugs and a sense of paranoia creeping into this thread...

Same article outlines strategies and pitfalls of expanding FDIC coverege for married couples. Loners are pretty much SOL:

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070305/BUSINESS/703050572/-1/140154

I must look into tinyurl.

Buying T-Bills through a broker like Schwab or ETRADE or TD Ameritrade is the safest way to park your money, safer and more convenient than buying CDs.

I have a chunk in T-Bills as well, but I bought directly through the Treasury. It's actually pretty easy to set up an account and use it, and you can buy multiple product types, including bonds, bills, and TIPS.

"directly through the Treasury"

As a matter of fact I believe it's called "Treasury Direct". :)