patrick.net

FAB,

I think I can speak for everyone when I say we appreciate that "nugget of knowledge". I'll check it out straight away! :)

Galina (Mrs. Serin) IS cute but really only in a Rachael Ray kind of way. Like streetcars there's always another one just around the corner!

Like streetcars there’s always another one just around the corner!

Not when you are actually waiting for one.

I would be more inclined to listen to millionaire economists. If they're so darn good at predicting the economy, why aren't they all rich beyond reason?

I would be more inclined to listen to millionaire economists. If they’re so darn good at predicting the economy, why aren’t they all rich beyond reason?

You own money is a 2nd House matter. OPM (other people's money) is an 8th House matter. It is very possible that someone who sucks at trading his own money can be a great money manager.

(Non-astrological answer: trading is mostly about your own psychology and many traders blow up their accounts by succumbing to their own greed and fear.)

Hey Kitty,

Just out of curiosity, what is the fair market rate for a contract web developer (ajax, java, ruby on rails, etc) with a couple years of experience, in silly valley?

Peter Schiff in Time Magazine; I dig the picture! :evil:

Is warren buffet considered a ‘millionaire economist’?

Of course Warren Buffer is not a millionaire economist?

George Soros is not one either.

Millionaires do not use astrology, billionaires do.
-- J P Morgan

He sold his CA beach house in summer 05 (absolute peak!)

Ah, yes! I remember that.

Calling Warren Buffett a millionaire is an insult to him!

Hello Kitty,

Classic WB move. I guess he simply didn't understand the new paradigm and permanently high plateau?

The "parable" we should all be taking away from that great story is that just b/c you're not currently a billionaire doesn't mean we shouldn't have faith in our convictions! Warren wasn't always a billionaire, but his strength of character and belief in himself (and common sense) lead him there.

All we need to do now is a follow up piece on the poor dumb bastard that bought it from him! (Or did he find an even greater fool?)

In the land of the endless summer I can't expect people to necessarily appreciate that the article was dated 10 May 2005. Which means he probably sold in March or April at the latest. In Oregon this would be the "dead of winter".

The OC Register found Warren, he didn't contact them to do a "publicity piece". He doesn't need to.

Someone said:

> Is warren buffet considered a ‘millionaire economist’?

HelloKitty Says:

> He sold his CA beach house in summer 05 (absolute peak!)

Buffett also sold his late wife’s Pacific Heights duplex at the end of 2003 (absolute peak for SF). The SF agent that listed the place for Buffett is Mayor Newsom’s Sister’s Mother in Law…

Let’s not forget that Sam Zell recently sold $39 Billion in real estate (and will have so much cash that he will probably move in to the top 25 on next years Forbes 400)…

Galina (Mrs. Serin) IS cute but really only in a Rachael Ray kind of way. Like streetcars there’s always another one just around the corner!

But with streetcars, a whole lot of other people have gotten a ride. I don't know about Galina, but with Rachael Ray at least that seems to fit the bill.

And think how much he'll have once he sells the Cubs!

Buffett sold the SF duplex in 2005 not 2003 (I heard about the deal from Gavin's Brother in Law Geoff who said his Mom was excited that Buffett picked her as the listing agent)...

Just some anecdotal examples.

Opinions/MP/FR/CR:

I'm glad you've been able to add a new word to your vocabulary from your last "stay" with us:

an·ec·do·tal
–adjective

def: based on personal observation, case study reports, or random investigations rather than systematic scientific evaluation: anecdotal evidence.

We should construct a graphical timeline of what has happened so far.

How about this?

I believe we are in the fear stage right now.

Randy H Says:

> it’s quite possible that MySpace itself will mature, and
> morph around its users as they age instead of those
> users migrating to Facebook, LinkedIn.

I’ve logged in to MySpace before and some of the most pathetic people in the world are people over 30 with a MySpace page…

The pain of his pathetic liberal drivel is usually so bad that I can’t complete reading a Mark Morford column but today (even though it pains me to give him a complement) he is right on:

“It is this: After scanning your 125th profile of yet another pale, spazzy Good Charlotte fan from Minneapolis, after seeing 257 pictures of Jenny from Orlando's drunk, giggly friends at hookup parties and reading about her love of dolphin tattoos and her desire to get her eyebrow pierced, oh my God my mom will kill me lol, it hits you: Sweet Jesus with a bottle of Tanqueray and a polysyllabic thought, these are the most boring people I have ever seen in my entire life.
It is like watching ferrets finger-paint. It is like watching kittens with ADD chase flashlight beams. It is like reading only US Weekly and eating chocolate Pop-Tarts and masturbating with a brown Microsoft Zune. Interesting for a few minutes, then it's all oh my God my brain is seeping through my toes and everything hurts and please make it stop.”

http://www.sfgate.com/columnists/morford/

I believe we are in the fear stage right now.

BA is still in the denial stage. Fear is building up though. I love fear. :twisted:

"at the end of 2003 (absolute peak for SF)"

I can see calling a top in SD, LV and PHX at some point in 2004 and coast to coast by '05 but '03 for SF? Did I read that right?

Well, over here it's a little different; I'd say that they are in denial of being fearful, thus they say they are experiencing anxiety. Can't you just sense the fear in them? and maybe a little denial.

I’d say that they are in denial of being fearful, thus they say they are experiencing anxiety. Can’t you just sense the fear in them?

Of course I sense fear. Perhaps we should invest in antidepressants.

Not investment advice

LOL :lol:

http://www.nbc10.com/news/11551375/detail.html

Soon enough, people will blame the housing bubble on "global warming."

Looks like the world has a large market for fear-mongers.

allah,

Interesting to note that the review of the "Armageddon Gang" glossed over the fact that while some of these doom and gloom bestsellers never fully came to fruition doesn't mean we're on solid ground.

Our inability to weather the slightest discomfort has created a financial system that sometimes looks more like band-aids and bailing wire. I do however find some comfort in the fact that it looks like CH has already lost the fervor for a bail-out. Thanks to all of you! :)

Here is my favorite quote from the OC Register article:
Buffett added a recap of his sale in Laguna Beach: "It was on about 2,000 square feet of land, maybe a twentieth of an acre, and the house might cost about $500,000 if you wanted to replace it. So the land sold for something like $60 million an acre."
Certainly puts things in perspective.

Dinor,
What do you have against the REIC and Mortgage Brokers. I mean, really, I'm sure you add miscellaneous fees and costs to your financial documents every time your client signs on the line.
Seriously, though, I trust my mortgage broker and would go into battle with him (if he was, ya know, in front of me). But even with this stellar relationship, I was holding my breath going into the title company to sign, hoping that there wouldn't be any mysterious charges on the docs. Of the three times I've gone into sign, I felt like I probably only could have walked out of one if needed. When there is a deposit on the line there is definitely a gun to the head... and all the $%@! paperwork. Yes, I made sure of the loan terms (fixed, check; no prepayment, check), but have no other recollections of what else I may have signed. I do feel for some of the folks that got "preyed" upon. Someone I know once called Ameriquest when the were looking at homes. From his experience, I can say those folks sounded like complete slime balls (btw, he did connect with a much better broker through his agent).

Skibum (I think),
Great link to the Shiller rant blog a couple of days ago... love the stuff about the economist who tracked home prices along the Dutch canal for 500 years. Housing keeps pace with inflation for 500 years (well, .2% appreciation when it is factored out) -- and someone thinks its different this time?

Of course I sense fear. Perhaps we should invest in antidepressants.

Not investment advice

How about changing the look of a prozac pill to look like a bubble with a house in the center and market it as "bubble-ease" for those who will be depressed as they see their biggest financial asset drop in value?

Here's an only mildly interesting piece from our (sometimes) RE bear at the Chronicle, Carol Lloyd about TICs in SF:

http://www.sfgate.com/columnists/lloyd/

I say "whatever" with regards to the TICs (couldn't care less), but the funniest line in the article is this:

"The buyer profile has changed dramatically," Brown says. "It used to be all first-time buyers. But I can't believe what we're seeing in the last six months -- people buying TICs as second homes and pied-à-terres." Brown added that he's also seeing a lot more cash, a side effect of a more affluent demographic. "In a recent six-unit building, three buyers paid cash, one paid 50 percent, one paid 30 percent and one paid 25 percent.

Since when is 25% down considered "cash"? Is a down payment of any significance so rare these days that 25% might as well be "cash?" This just says to me how screwed up the situation is today.

I smell a GREAT reality show here. “Lifestyles of the F*kked and Cluel3ss”.

Take some of these stories, hire some photogenic actors, ‘re-enact’ the happy heloc party-times: Hummers, Excrelades, jetskis, vacations, etc. and then cut to how it ends: tears, repos, ridicule and divorce.

I have thought about that myself; It could make a nice soap opera too:

"As the Bubble Inflates"

Followed by the sequel

"As the Bubble Deflates"

I wonder how many "cash" buyers are really HELOC-ers.

skibum,

What that would tend to indicate to me is that the market is coming to it's senses and folks that would've been previously looking at trophy property are coming down to earth? To a certain degree we're seeing it here as well.

And yes, we are that screwed up.

Many believes that there is a lot of money out there. The truth is that there is a lot of liquidity out there. More specifically, the house-of-cards type of liquidity.

We are in interesting times.

Interesting to note that the review of the “Armageddon Gang” glossed over the fact that while some of these doom and gloom bestsellers never fully came to fruition doesn’t mean we’re on solid ground.

DinOR,

People don't like bad news; The mass media will always deny anything bad is going to happen. People refer to "doom and gloomers" as very paranoid people. I say it's better to wise up to the facts and be paranoid, then to wake up one day and be right smack in the middle of it.

How about changing the look of a prozac pill to look like a bubble with a house in the center and market it as “bubble-ease” for those who will be depressed as they see their biggest financial asset drop in value?

That would be wrong. :lol:

EBGuy,

No, no I don't have anything against guys that were selling aluminum siding on Friday and were MB's on Monday. No nothing at all!

I've really been waiting for MountainViewRenter to chime in b/c there has been one helluva stink in the securities arena this week! An e-mail was sent out Monday and said that "managed accounts" are in a state of absolute chaos. Seems the Investor Advisor Act of 1940 is being brought into question. The long and short of it is, if you're not an RIA you may have to convert your "managed" accts. over to comm. base b/c there apparently have been abuses. Primarily guys charging 1-2% AND offering ETF IPO's w/an underwriting spread (syndicate business). So 4-5% which is clearly NOT what the client agreed to. I know it would hardly make a ripple here but believe me the industry is shaking in it's boots right now.

This IS the train wreck scenario for Chas. Schwab b/c after years of raising bil's (and then not being able to figure out a way to get paid on it) they felt they'd finally found their revenue stream in managed accts. Oops.

Not that I'm some kind of freaking altar boy but I've been saying this was coming for years. And I'm glad.

allah,

What people fail to realize is that guys like Peter Schiff would infinitely prefer there had never been a subprime meltdown. Do any of us really think he "enjoys" being that crabby?

If we have no restraints on the way up, that's fine. Just don't look for me to accomodate FB's and their "Lifestyles of the F#cked and Cluel3ss" on the way down. We just have to suck this one up.

Skibum,
I did find this tidbit in Carol Llyod's column to be quite interesting...
Already, lending guidelines have grown far more favorable since their inception -- in some cases lowering the down-payment requirement from 25 percent to 10 percent.
Don't get me wrong, I am a big fan of TICs (as this is how I bought within my means -- way back in 2000. None of this sissy "lets all have a different loan stuff" either... everybody signed on the dotted line together). But if condos ever get overbuilt in the City, TICs are going to be the first to take a real hit. If I was a bank, I don't think I'd want to be holding a bag that can only weather a 10% downturn in the market (no matter what the risk premium). That said, I think by 2037 the last "tenant" in SF will be Ellised out of their apartment and all the rental stock will have been converted to TICs. The market will always find a way around the Board of Supes.

EBGuy,

On the other hand, a 10% down payment is still 10% (or more) over what a lot of FBs have on their properties. At least there are some minimum requirements.

Let’s not forget that Sam Zell recently sold $39 Billion in real estate (and will have so much cash that he will probably move in to the top 25 on next years Forbes 400)…

Zell is buying Tribune Co. Maybe it is time for an old-line media comeback? Seems like a smart move to me. In the long run, I doubt Google can continue to poach such a large share of ad revenues from content providers.

Glen,

That and the Cubs are a cash cow. Low salaries (comparatively) great national exposure and televising rights plus a fan base that only needs an occasional win to keep the seats filled! A dream come true.