patrick.net

Michael Holliday - I agree.

That is why I do expect a much faster decline than the one in 1991-96. We wont need a recession to 'deflate' the bubble this time around.

My 2 cents: I expect prices in SF Bay Area to decline by 50% and "Never see peak prices in my life time". Just like it will take many decades to see NAS hit 5000.

The NAR numbers have always been a lot like the “Dealer Retail”

All we need is to have an Enron style accounting scandel from the NAR and that will change in months, thanks to Congress. But NAR is hooked into
our goverment. Really need to flush NAR out of Washington out of politics and destroy them as any kind of entity.

What is MySpace anyway?

Peter P,

The biggest waste of bandwidth ever.

It's a way to acquire hundreds of *friends* without ever leaving your house.

NARB,allah,

Thanks for the link. It's so blatantly obvious that this is an industry where bullying, fibbing and outright lies are not only tolerated but openly encouraged. Anthems like "let's all stick together" or "stand your ground" should translate to "don't mess up my good thing".

I agree with Space Ace that a little accounting "irregularities" would go a long way right now. If we have to dismantle the REIC Cartel (TM) by starting with the Mortgage Brokers Association then well... whatever. I happen to feel that subprime lending was a symptom *not a cause but if it means gaining some traction then I can villify with the best of them!

If it weren't for subprime lenders there would have never been a housing bubble! There. I said it. Can we move on now? :)

Anthems like “let’s all stick together” or “stand your ground” should translate to “don’t mess up my good thing”.

I'm not a lawyer, but isn't that collusion and racketeering prosecutable under RICO?

The employment numbers came out good today. Very interesting. I keep getting fascinated by the completely contradictory signals. I pity the economists who have to make predictions !

So what does it mean ? Is the economy slowing or not ? This report definitely agrees with my perception of BA economy. The job market here is indeed strong right now.

It also means a good Monday on Wall Str, and definitely reduces the chance of a rate cut. So I guess I was wrong on both stock market and rate cut. But I will take it. Thankfully I was way under-weighted in bonds :-) A better job market is preferable to a crashing housing market.

Although, this may actually put more downward pressure on house prices. Rates can increase faster than wages. No matter how strong the job market is, at current prices in BA, rates over 7% would completely kill the spring-summer season.

Need to learn chaos theory.

I pity the economists who have to make predictions!

Why? In two days, nobody remembers what these guys said. Especially if they were wrong. Predicting the economy is like forecasting the weather!

skibum,

No lawyer here either but it certainly flirts with price fixing. About a year ago there was a gal in OH that started a local version of ZIP Realty (or basically a discounted commission business model) and was given more grief than you can shake a stick at. Her For Sale signs were uprooted w/regularity, her site was hacked constantly AND she rec'd threatening phone calls. Hmm.

I'll have to follow up and see if she woke up with her horse's head in bed beside her.

I pity the economists who have to make predictions!

Why? In two days, nobody remembers what these guys said. Especially if they were wrong. Predicting the economy is like forecasting the weather!

Exactly! If they were all right, we'd only need one of them.

It’s a way to acquire hundreds of *friends* without ever leaving your house.

I thought that was patrick.net.

Michael Holliday Says:

> Why work for salaries that aren’t keeping pace
> with the cost of housing, when you can just buy
> and sell houses that only perpetually increase in
> value; thereby, living like the proverbial King
> of Avalon?

A guy who decided that working was a waste of time and living off home appreciation was the way to go has set up a BLOG in case anyone is thinking about quitting their job.

http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/

FAB,

I think I can speak for everyone when I say we appreciate that "nugget of knowledge". I'll check it out straight away! :)

Galina (Mrs. Serin) IS cute but really only in a Rachael Ray kind of way. Like streetcars there's always another one just around the corner!

Like streetcars there’s always another one just around the corner!

Not when you are actually waiting for one.

I would be more inclined to listen to millionaire economists. If they're so darn good at predicting the economy, why aren't they all rich beyond reason?

I would be more inclined to listen to millionaire economists. If they’re so darn good at predicting the economy, why aren’t they all rich beyond reason?

You own money is a 2nd House matter. OPM (other people's money) is an 8th House matter. It is very possible that someone who sucks at trading his own money can be a great money manager.

(Non-astrological answer: trading is mostly about your own psychology and many traders blow up their accounts by succumbing to their own greed and fear.)

Hey Kitty,

Just out of curiosity, what is the fair market rate for a contract web developer (ajax, java, ruby on rails, etc) with a couple years of experience, in silly valley?

Peter Schiff in Time Magazine; I dig the picture! :evil:

Is warren buffet considered a ‘millionaire economist’?

Of course Warren Buffer is not a millionaire economist?

George Soros is not one either.

Millionaires do not use astrology, billionaires do.
-- J P Morgan

He sold his CA beach house in summer 05 (absolute peak!)

Ah, yes! I remember that.

Calling Warren Buffett a millionaire is an insult to him!

Hello Kitty,

Classic WB move. I guess he simply didn't understand the new paradigm and permanently high plateau?

The "parable" we should all be taking away from that great story is that just b/c you're not currently a billionaire doesn't mean we shouldn't have faith in our convictions! Warren wasn't always a billionaire, but his strength of character and belief in himself (and common sense) lead him there.

All we need to do now is a follow up piece on the poor dumb bastard that bought it from him! (Or did he find an even greater fool?)

In the land of the endless summer I can't expect people to necessarily appreciate that the article was dated 10 May 2005. Which means he probably sold in March or April at the latest. In Oregon this would be the "dead of winter".

The OC Register found Warren, he didn't contact them to do a "publicity piece". He doesn't need to.

Someone said:

> Is warren buffet considered a ‘millionaire economist’?

HelloKitty Says:

> He sold his CA beach house in summer 05 (absolute peak!)

Buffett also sold his late wife’s Pacific Heights duplex at the end of 2003 (absolute peak for SF). The SF agent that listed the place for Buffett is Mayor Newsom’s Sister’s Mother in Law…

Let’s not forget that Sam Zell recently sold $39 Billion in real estate (and will have so much cash that he will probably move in to the top 25 on next years Forbes 400)…

Galina (Mrs. Serin) IS cute but really only in a Rachael Ray kind of way. Like streetcars there’s always another one just around the corner!

But with streetcars, a whole lot of other people have gotten a ride. I don't know about Galina, but with Rachael Ray at least that seems to fit the bill.

And think how much he'll have once he sells the Cubs!

Buffett sold the SF duplex in 2005 not 2003 (I heard about the deal from Gavin's Brother in Law Geoff who said his Mom was excited that Buffett picked her as the listing agent)...

Just some anecdotal examples.

Opinions/MP/FR/CR:

I'm glad you've been able to add a new word to your vocabulary from your last "stay" with us:

an·ec·do·tal
–adjective

def: based on personal observation, case study reports, or random investigations rather than systematic scientific evaluation: anecdotal evidence.

We should construct a graphical timeline of what has happened so far.

How about this?

I believe we are in the fear stage right now.

Randy H Says:

> it’s quite possible that MySpace itself will mature, and
> morph around its users as they age instead of those
> users migrating to Facebook, LinkedIn.

I’ve logged in to MySpace before and some of the most pathetic people in the world are people over 30 with a MySpace page…

The pain of his pathetic liberal drivel is usually so bad that I can’t complete reading a Mark Morford column but today (even though it pains me to give him a complement) he is right on:

“It is this: After scanning your 125th profile of yet another pale, spazzy Good Charlotte fan from Minneapolis, after seeing 257 pictures of Jenny from Orlando's drunk, giggly friends at hookup parties and reading about her love of dolphin tattoos and her desire to get her eyebrow pierced, oh my God my mom will kill me lol, it hits you: Sweet Jesus with a bottle of Tanqueray and a polysyllabic thought, these are the most boring people I have ever seen in my entire life.
It is like watching ferrets finger-paint. It is like watching kittens with ADD chase flashlight beams. It is like reading only US Weekly and eating chocolate Pop-Tarts and masturbating with a brown Microsoft Zune. Interesting for a few minutes, then it's all oh my God my brain is seeping through my toes and everything hurts and please make it stop.”

http://www.sfgate.com/columnists/morford/

I believe we are in the fear stage right now.

BA is still in the denial stage. Fear is building up though. I love fear. :twisted:

"at the end of 2003 (absolute peak for SF)"

I can see calling a top in SD, LV and PHX at some point in 2004 and coast to coast by '05 but '03 for SF? Did I read that right?

Well, over here it's a little different; I'd say that they are in denial of being fearful, thus they say they are experiencing anxiety. Can't you just sense the fear in them? and maybe a little denial.

I’d say that they are in denial of being fearful, thus they say they are experiencing anxiety. Can’t you just sense the fear in them?

Of course I sense fear. Perhaps we should invest in antidepressants.

Not investment advice

LOL :lol:

http://www.nbc10.com/news/11551375/detail.html

Soon enough, people will blame the housing bubble on "global warming."

Looks like the world has a large market for fear-mongers.

allah,

Interesting to note that the review of the "Armageddon Gang" glossed over the fact that while some of these doom and gloom bestsellers never fully came to fruition doesn't mean we're on solid ground.

Our inability to weather the slightest discomfort has created a financial system that sometimes looks more like band-aids and bailing wire. I do however find some comfort in the fact that it looks like CH has already lost the fervor for a bail-out. Thanks to all of you! :)

Here is my favorite quote from the OC Register article:
Buffett added a recap of his sale in Laguna Beach: "It was on about 2,000 square feet of land, maybe a twentieth of an acre, and the house might cost about $500,000 if you wanted to replace it. So the land sold for something like $60 million an acre."
Certainly puts things in perspective.

Dinor,
What do you have against the REIC and Mortgage Brokers. I mean, really, I'm sure you add miscellaneous fees and costs to your financial documents every time your client signs on the line.
Seriously, though, I trust my mortgage broker and would go into battle with him (if he was, ya know, in front of me). But even with this stellar relationship, I was holding my breath going into the title company to sign, hoping that there wouldn't be any mysterious charges on the docs. Of the three times I've gone into sign, I felt like I probably only could have walked out of one if needed. When there is a deposit on the line there is definitely a gun to the head... and all the $%@! paperwork. Yes, I made sure of the loan terms (fixed, check; no prepayment, check), but have no other recollections of what else I may have signed. I do feel for some of the folks that got "preyed" upon. Someone I know once called Ameriquest when the were looking at homes. From his experience, I can say those folks sounded like complete slime balls (btw, he did connect with a much better broker through his agent).

Skibum (I think),
Great link to the Shiller rant blog a couple of days ago... love the stuff about the economist who tracked home prices along the Dutch canal for 500 years. Housing keeps pace with inflation for 500 years (well, .2% appreciation when it is factored out) -- and someone thinks its different this time?

Of course I sense fear. Perhaps we should invest in antidepressants.

Not investment advice

How about changing the look of a prozac pill to look like a bubble with a house in the center and market it as "bubble-ease" for those who will be depressed as they see their biggest financial asset drop in value?