patrick.net

WordPress is quite impressive. There are expansion pack for just about everything. You could run a tolerably function (if bare boned) website with just WordPress.

Randy H Says:

> There is real $ being made in web 2.0. Unlike “our”
> bubble (us old timers from the late 90s, lol),

Is most of the money coming from click through ads?

> Take this as an anecdote. Recently a well publicized
> study canvassed young adolescents about internet
> usage. Something stunning like 70% had MySpace

I can’t think of a single adolescent kid that does not have a MySpace account, but I bet if surveyed my friends the number would be about 60% (kids and their friends tell the “cool uncle” a lot of things they don’t tell their parents)…

> Also, most had never even heard of any of the MySpace
> competitors (like Face Book or Friendster).

That is because kids don’t get a Face Book account (and abandon MySpace) until college (if they are Pilipino they will get a Face Book and Friendster account). In the year after college most young analysts check their Face Book page every day, but after two years in the work world most have moved on to LinkedIn (and abandoned their friends on Face Book).

> When you can grab 70% of any demographic, especially
> one with disposable income, there’s a business model there.

I read this BLOG (and others) every day and I’m a member of a lot of social networking sites, but I have never clicked a banner ad (sorry Patrick) and can’t see how the sites make any money from me (or my nephews and their friends that log on to look at posts from friends that include blurry camera photo photos)…

Does anyone else who already bought a home....

get anxiety that you lost $$$$ in the last year on the house? I do...

Free entertainment courtesy of Allah!

Wow, I totally missed out on the "social networking" experience. As far as I know, none of my friends has a MySpace or Friendster page of any consequence.

Good blogs are much more addicting.

There is a person in my family that was working in the mortgage industry for about 5 years. She got preggo & married a guy she worked with. They bought a very average house in a desirable area with $$$ taxes at the height of the market & they were under pressure because she was very pregnant. Her DH is not from LI & is horrified at what they pay to live here. She has never lived anywhere else & her DH tells her she lives in a bubble. She has been complaining that although her DH is a great salesman, lately he can't close any of the deals on his desk because the banks won't write them. She doesn't work since having the baby.
So they just came back from a trip to N.C. & TN.
Low & behold she can't believe what 300k can buy down there. They are thinking of moving.
Problem is there are at least ten homes for sale in their tiny neighborhood, most of them have been listed for 6 months plus. Some of them are much bigger/newer/better but all are listed at 60k-100k less then what she paid & they still aren't selling. Oh and they have an 100% financed IO, and they have started paying down principle yet.

Nothing like real life entertainment, they just keep getting better. Enjoy!

Peter P

Blogging is Web 2.0 (transitional), IMO. There are a lot of things about blogging that are very 2.0 and different than the newsgroup 1.0 phenomenon. Blogging is more adaptive and dynamic. Things like trackbacks, the way blogs aggregate through things like Technorati and Digg, and the emerging blog community add ons like MyBlogLog are more 2.0.

I'd say Gen X are probably about 50% Web2.0 compatible, and Boomers are about 20% Web2.0 compatible.

I think Web 2.0 may be itself just a short lived transition to Web 3.d, which will be more accessible to more people if done right because it will function in easily conceptualized familiar terms and metaphors. The hang ups there are mostly technical, which may make it easier or harder depending upon who you ask.

Space Ace Says:

“The CA median house price has risen 250% since 2000 (tripled in some neighborhoods), while median wages and rents have not even come close to keeping pace.”
_____

Exactly.

So what's the moral of the story?

Well, it's obvious: It's a new economy.

Why work for salaries that aren't keeping pace with the cost of housing, when you can just buy and sell houses that only perpetually increase in value; thereby, living like the proverbial King of Avalon?

And it doesn't take a genius to figure out what you must do. Now go do it!

Ha, ha!

Youtube will be useless once Google or Yahoo seals a deal with big media to do searchable videos. The site is 95% chaff.

I found this little gem on the craigslist orange county housing forum.

CLOWN SAYS:

What most realtors NEED to know. 04/06 07:45:18

I've been a realtor for over 20 yrs. Owned a mortgage company. Taught sales classes. Worked as a manager for a sales office.

I can tell you that the industry has changed drastically. These agents today have no education nor any desire to better themselves. They refuse to work on sales skills and know nothing about what they are selling.
I hate the high pressure sales crap these kids use today. The discounts and rebates being offered by agents today are destroying the industry. If you are in the industry and are having tough times go find another job. Stop making a whore out of yourself as it reflects poorly on the business. We are in times where we should be raising fees not reducing them as there are fewer sales.

Here are a few sales tips that I give:

If people are having a hard time deciding whether or not to buy, walk away - dont sell them too hard or they will smell the desperation. Let them think you have other clients to work with.

I urge all my agents to put FOR SALE signs with SOLD placards in their own front yards to let others see that the market is selling homes. Also it is a good way to generate leads.

Always instill confidence in your customers by speaking positively about the market. If we all stick together in this people will believe it.

Never acknowledge news or data sources that dont support a positive impression of the housing market.

Get your listing clients to list at the lowest possible price. Never list high and reduce the price. Reducing prices scares buyers. If you have to lie to get a listing and reduce the price later, dont advertise the price reduction.

Remember to stick together, stand your ground on fees and discourage other agents from discounting their services.

@NARB,

Was it signed Gen. George Custer? :)

NARB,

Do you have the link?

FAB

The largest source of ad revenues is not from "click-through" ads, but from targeted advertising. In that regard it's more synonymous with old-media advertising revenues. The advertisers often don't so much rely upon clicks, just having their message seen or recognized.

I agree with your assessment of which groups use which social networking sites. However, I think you're observing the current breakdown and extrapolating that as people mature they will shift from one network to the next. In fact, this isn't yet known because all these networks are relatively new and haven't gone through a full "cycle" yet. There's some evidence that networks tend to have a very long demographic tail, so it's quite possible that MySpace itself will mature, and morph around its users as they age instead of those users migrating to Facebook, LinkedIn. There's precedent for such in television demographics, but no one will know for sure for about another 5-10 years.

"If you have to lie to get the listing"

"If you have to lie"

"If you have to lie to get the listing and reduce the price later, dont advertise the price reduction"

"Never acknowledge news or data sources that dont support a positive impression of the housing market."

"Never acknowledge"

What is this? The f@cking Yakuza Code of Honor or some sh!t? NARB, it's not that I doubt you but I gotta see this for myself!

link:

http:/s.orangecounty.craigslist.org/?act=Q&ID=61232297

lot's of housing hype on the news. apparently the slump is over. These prices will look small compared to a few years from now.
Can you believe that? They had a bay area economist say that. He was supposed to be independant of the industry. I wonder if he has his fortune at stake.
The real estate PR machine is cranking up to full tilt.

It's a lesson in capitalism that reaches all of us. Let's see how this plays out. I find it amazing.

http:/s.orangecounty.craigslist.org/?act=Q&ID=61232297

That is a perfect example of a Realtwhore! Nice guy! Doesn't this idiot know that there are buyers (sheeple) that are also reading this?

" MySpace itself will mature, and morph around its users as they age instead of those users migrating to Facebook, LinkedIn."

In the mean time the employees will eat ramen for years. Where is your net profit in all of this? These companies will have to set up shop in North Dekota to reduce costs to show any profits. Margins are very slim.

Michael Holliday - I agree.

That is why I do expect a much faster decline than the one in 1991-96. We wont need a recession to 'deflate' the bubble this time around.

My 2 cents: I expect prices in SF Bay Area to decline by 50% and "Never see peak prices in my life time". Just like it will take many decades to see NAS hit 5000.

The NAR numbers have always been a lot like the “Dealer Retail”

All we need is to have an Enron style accounting scandel from the NAR and that will change in months, thanks to Congress. But NAR is hooked into
our goverment. Really need to flush NAR out of Washington out of politics and destroy them as any kind of entity.

What is MySpace anyway?

Peter P,

The biggest waste of bandwidth ever.

It's a way to acquire hundreds of *friends* without ever leaving your house.

NARB,allah,

Thanks for the link. It's so blatantly obvious that this is an industry where bullying, fibbing and outright lies are not only tolerated but openly encouraged. Anthems like "let's all stick together" or "stand your ground" should translate to "don't mess up my good thing".

I agree with Space Ace that a little accounting "irregularities" would go a long way right now. If we have to dismantle the REIC Cartel (TM) by starting with the Mortgage Brokers Association then well... whatever. I happen to feel that subprime lending was a symptom *not a cause but if it means gaining some traction then I can villify with the best of them!

If it weren't for subprime lenders there would have never been a housing bubble! There. I said it. Can we move on now? :)

Anthems like “let’s all stick together” or “stand your ground” should translate to “don’t mess up my good thing”.

I'm not a lawyer, but isn't that collusion and racketeering prosecutable under RICO?

The employment numbers came out good today. Very interesting. I keep getting fascinated by the completely contradictory signals. I pity the economists who have to make predictions !

So what does it mean ? Is the economy slowing or not ? This report definitely agrees with my perception of BA economy. The job market here is indeed strong right now.

It also means a good Monday on Wall Str, and definitely reduces the chance of a rate cut. So I guess I was wrong on both stock market and rate cut. But I will take it. Thankfully I was way under-weighted in bonds :-) A better job market is preferable to a crashing housing market.

Although, this may actually put more downward pressure on house prices. Rates can increase faster than wages. No matter how strong the job market is, at current prices in BA, rates over 7% would completely kill the spring-summer season.

Need to learn chaos theory.

I pity the economists who have to make predictions!

Why? In two days, nobody remembers what these guys said. Especially if they were wrong. Predicting the economy is like forecasting the weather!

skibum,

No lawyer here either but it certainly flirts with price fixing. About a year ago there was a gal in OH that started a local version of ZIP Realty (or basically a discounted commission business model) and was given more grief than you can shake a stick at. Her For Sale signs were uprooted w/regularity, her site was hacked constantly AND she rec'd threatening phone calls. Hmm.

I'll have to follow up and see if she woke up with her horse's head in bed beside her.

I pity the economists who have to make predictions!

Why? In two days, nobody remembers what these guys said. Especially if they were wrong. Predicting the economy is like forecasting the weather!

Exactly! If they were all right, we'd only need one of them.

It’s a way to acquire hundreds of *friends* without ever leaving your house.

I thought that was patrick.net.

Michael Holliday Says:

> Why work for salaries that aren’t keeping pace
> with the cost of housing, when you can just buy
> and sell houses that only perpetually increase in
> value; thereby, living like the proverbial King
> of Avalon?

A guy who decided that working was a waste of time and living off home appreciation was the way to go has set up a BLOG in case anyone is thinking about quitting their job.

http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/

FAB,

I think I can speak for everyone when I say we appreciate that "nugget of knowledge". I'll check it out straight away! :)

Galina (Mrs. Serin) IS cute but really only in a Rachael Ray kind of way. Like streetcars there's always another one just around the corner!

Like streetcars there’s always another one just around the corner!

Not when you are actually waiting for one.

I would be more inclined to listen to millionaire economists. If they're so darn good at predicting the economy, why aren't they all rich beyond reason?

I would be more inclined to listen to millionaire economists. If they’re so darn good at predicting the economy, why aren’t they all rich beyond reason?

You own money is a 2nd House matter. OPM (other people's money) is an 8th House matter. It is very possible that someone who sucks at trading his own money can be a great money manager.

(Non-astrological answer: trading is mostly about your own psychology and many traders blow up their accounts by succumbing to their own greed and fear.)

Hey Kitty,

Just out of curiosity, what is the fair market rate for a contract web developer (ajax, java, ruby on rails, etc) with a couple years of experience, in silly valley?

Peter Schiff in Time Magazine; I dig the picture! :evil:

Is warren buffet considered a ‘millionaire economist’?

Of course Warren Buffer is not a millionaire economist?

George Soros is not one either.

Millionaires do not use astrology, billionaires do.
-- J P Morgan

He sold his CA beach house in summer 05 (absolute peak!)

Ah, yes! I remember that.

Calling Warren Buffett a millionaire is an insult to him!

Hello Kitty,

Classic WB move. I guess he simply didn't understand the new paradigm and permanently high plateau?

The "parable" we should all be taking away from that great story is that just b/c you're not currently a billionaire doesn't mean we shouldn't have faith in our convictions! Warren wasn't always a billionaire, but his strength of character and belief in himself (and common sense) lead him there.

All we need to do now is a follow up piece on the poor dumb bastard that bought it from him! (Or did he find an even greater fool?)