patrick.net

I don't think TOS is an FB though.

I think the majority of FB's don't own and/or use a computer; This would certainly explain why they got to where they are when all the warnings where all over the internet. My guess is that the only news they read is local news and the local news is the last place that you will hear stuff like this.

Honestly, how many articles on the internet have we read about people getting in over their heads with ARM's, N/A, NINJA, I/O, "teaser rates". These stories have been running for several years, anyone reading a few stories like that should have enough oxygen in their brain cells to avoid them.

I don't think TOS is a he.

Hey are there any FB blogs?

Try Craigslist forums. It's a zoo there.

I don’t think TOS is a he.

Huh?

HK:

tOs is not willing to engage in any earnest discussion. We've wasted over half a year countering her same example, numerous times, only to have her reappear a few threads later with the same old circus act.

The walk-away option is NOT FREE. Or as tOs says, "a built in free call option". Bullshit. It does cost you to abandon any loan in quantifiable future costs. How will your credit score look after defaulting on a loan? All the CA laws protect for some (those who never refinanced mostly, which isn't many) people are their *other* assets. But wait, there's more you say?

a. Almost no people who default have any *other* assets. TOS should believe this, because FAB said it, and he "knows what he's talking about", in her own words.

b. Even if they do have *other* assets, and they are protected because they didn't refinance with another institution, then guess what, hope they like those assets because they're not getting a loan to buy any other ones for some years to come.

c. If they do get a loan, and they'll need one because they don't have money or they wouldn't have defaulted in the first place, they'll pay through the nose because they are a bad credit risk (now with a history of being unsecurable).

Free option indeed. Only if by "free" you mean "fucks up your life".

Here's a simple realistic, practical question that will separate any *earnest* discussion from bullshit:

Do you really think that Joe Homeowner will just "walk away" when he can fight on until there's nothing left? Now who sounds like the unrealistic economist assuming people are hyper-rational robots? (Of course most people have a sense of guilt about defaulting and they'll do everything possible to not default, even if it means painting themselves right into a corner).

hey TOS,
try using 1989 as your starting part. housing tanked for 10 years.

i dont know why people feel sorry for FB’s they ‘ALL’ get 1 year free living and then get to rent for half thier old house payment. SWEEET! where do i sign up! Some of these Aholes steal the applicances from the house too. I can send links if you want from mls.

Peter P Says:

> http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/
> Again, I honestly admire Casey Serin.

So do I…

Scroll down to Casey’s April 3rd entry and take a look at his wife.

You have to hand it to a kid with no job, no degree and no money that has a hotter wife than most of my friends…

http://tinyurl.com/36mnwu

JOHN DVORAK'S SECOND OPINION
Has Silicon Valley lost its edge?
Commentary: It looks like a pretty grim year's ahead

Scroll down to Casey’s April 3rd entry and take a look at his wife.

Perhaps they should take a photography class. The white balance and exposure were all messed up.

lunarpark, I like sentence in the article. :)

Web 2.0 is a catchall term invented to make things seem more exciting then they actually are.

Scroll down to Casey’s April 3rd entry and take a look at his wife.

You have to hand it to a kid with no job, no degree and no money that has a hotter wife than most of my friends…

Yes, but how long before that attractive and obviously very naive young woman catches on to her husband's sociopathic B.S. and dumps his lazy good-for-nothing ass for someone better (i.e., practically anyone)?

Perhaps biotech is the future though.

Should we start a betting pool on how long before Galina Serin dumps Casey? Would that be wrong?

Would that be wrong?

That would be wrong. Marriages are for life.

hey TOS,
try using 1989 as your starting part. housing tanked for 10 years.

HelloKitty,

EXACTLY! I've tried mentioning this to TOS several times - her amateurish calculations start out with a false pretense by comparing appreciation starting from the bottom of the cycle in 1977 vs. appreciation starting from the top of the cycle today.

There is no back and forth with her. She just ignores contradictory information and just reposts the same crap in the next thread.

1- I have never declared that an MBA is worthless…In fact, I think that it is the best degree available out there (in term of length, potential reward and so on…), ahead of a JD and of a MD or FAR ahead a quant. PhD (like mine)…

The world is a collusion of businessmen and lawyers. A JD can be very useful.

That would be wrong. Marriages are for life.

In an ideal world, sure. But in Galina's case, I'd say the sooner she dumps that sleazeball looser, the better for her. He's already dragged her into his financial mess and has even admitted to directly involving her in mortgage fraud. What's next? Pimping her out so he can make his CashCall payments?

Good grief... even devout Catholics sometimes get annulments, when the situation is dire enough.

You don't "walk away" from the house if you are underwater. "You just leave the keys on the counter" bullshit.

Here is how it really works, you borrow 1mil for your McChateau hoping to flip it. McChateau is now worth $750K, you "walk away" Lender sells repo'd McChateau for $600K, lender then reports 400K on 1099, with your name on it to the IRS as your income. The truly humorous part is trying to "walk away" from the IRS.

“You just leave the keys on the counter” bullshit.

Does it matter if the countertop is made of granite? :)

Who is TOS anyway? Is she the mad realtwhore?

jealous bitter assholes,

If you buy low and sell high you always make money.

Or in boomer speak if you buy low and sell while high you don't care if you make money.

Or in boomer speak if you buy low and sell while high you don’t care if you make money.

LOL :lol:

Does it matter if the countertop is made of granite?

By the time the FB is at the point of leaving the keys on the table, that granite countertop is long gone on ebay!

@Surfer-X,

Actually, there is (sort of) a way to "walk away" from taxes owed on mortgage "forgiveness": IRS Offer in Compromise

However, you would have to be: (a) without significant liquidatable assets, and (b) without income sufficient to repay the debt via an installment plan.

For true "NINJAs", this may actually be a viable option.

Here's one now!

lunarpark,

Thanks for the link. It's nice to see some in the MSM who agree that "Web 2.0" is B.S.

theotherside

Thanks for taking a step towards establishing credibility here. Understand that a lot of the hostility you have received from myself and others is because it's very easy for someone to anonymously come by here and agitate. It has been my experience that

a) Anonymity on the internet is really only temporary. Everyone eventually outs themselves to a large degree if they remain engaged. Also unless you are very careful to use a proxy in a foreign country, your IP can be tracked (with great difficulty often).

b) While people assume they are anonymous they have a very high propensity to misbehave. They will say crap that they'd never say if they might be held to account for it.

c) People who are *not* anonymous like Patrick and me are at a distinct disadvantage when trying to argue or debate with someone who is a complete mystery.

And I knew you had IB experience in you somewhere. At least grant me that much. Not a bad guess, eh?

A couple of clarifications about my position:

* I am not a "permabear". I have owned houses in the past, and believe owning a house is a great decision for a large number of people.

* I want another house.

* I did not sell my house because of the bubble. We sold for life commute reasons when my wife got a new job in Marin.

* Our decision was *not to buy*, after already having crossed the expiration of the stay in the old house option.

* Renting sucks. With a house full of 15 years worth of furniture, a garage full of homeowner gas powered things, now all stuffed into a rented McCrapsion along with my extended family including a partially disabled mother, I f-ing hate renting.

* I will buy well before the bottom, because it is worth it to me. What is not worth it to me or my wife is literally throwing away upwards of $0.5m that we may well not have to throw away.

* I grew up relatively poor, in a shitty part of the midwest. Any dollar denomination ending in a 'm' is Xm - (Xm * .99) more than I ever suspected I'd have in my life, so I will fight very hard to not piss it away.

"It’s nice to see some in the MSM who agree that “Web 2.0″ is B.S. "

Honestly, I had never heard the term Web 2.0 until about a month ago when someone mentioned it on this blog. Maybe I am out of touch or it's only talked about by people who work in tech.

My formula should be (Xm * .99) without the minus term.

My formula should be (Xm * .99) without the minus term.

I was wondering about that.

I believe Web 2.0 is a Gen-Y thingie. The spending power of Gen-Y is tied to the wealth of boomers, which in turned is tied to home equity. Go figure.

TOS,
Your reply doesn't prove anything about 1977. If you look at historical charts of price appreciation, for example from the OFHEO for California since 1975:

http://www.ofheo.gov/HPIState.asp?FormMode=Process

you'll see that 1977 was either at the start or in the early phases of a boom with double-digit price growth every Q of every year until the well-known bust of the early 1980s (1982 to be exact, according to the data here).

So, again, 1977 was the start of a boom, 2007 is the start of the bust for this cycle. Doesn't match. Sorry.

"I believe Web 2.0 is a Gen-Y thingie."

Interesting. Being Gen-X is making me feel old now.

oops sorry - here's the link:

http://www.ofheo.gov/HPIState.asp

pick CA for the state (or any other you might be interested in).

Another sign of the times (he he he):

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2007/04/05/BUG7OP2O551.DTL&type=business

This guy needs to be bitch slapped (to death!) with an FB's foreclosure papers packed in a leather satchel

If there is a bailout, this guys name should be at the top of the list of who funds it!

I have made my positions very clear many times here (i.e. buying now is crazy, selling a primary residence bought a long time ago is not smart, 10% nominal drop likely over next 4-5 years, 20% drop in real term likely over next 10 years,

Ok, praytell how exactly you arrived at these precise forecast figures?

The CA median house price has risen 250% since 2000 (tripled in some neighborhoods), while median wages and rents have not even come close to keeping pace. Cap rates are in low single digits for anything bought recently, and inflation (official or otherwise), is just not showing up where it really matters --people's paychecks. We see a current price-income ratio of approx. 11:1, vs. a statewide historic average closer to 5:1.

Is 10-20% anywhere close to filling the gap? Please. I don’t claim to know the future, but, even the early-1990s correction was bigger than that. And this one’s the mother of all housing bubbles.

fucking haters.

"The CA median house price has risen 250% since 2000 (tripled in some neighborhoods), while median wages and rents have not even come close to keeping pace."

Add to that homes went from 200K in 1997 to 500K by 2000.