patrick.net

It's all about utility value. In the end, money is just a means to an end. I'm sure X and Ms X have weighed the balance.

People who've waited the past two years are better off than those who didn't, especially in X's area. They only person here who continually insists he's clairvoyant enough to recognize the *exact* bottom also screamed and yelled (2 years ago) that prices wouldn't and couldn't be sticky, and that only an idiot fool realtor shill could believe otherwise.

My point is, everyone should buy if and when it fits their life. Just try to make sure you can afford it and it's worth the risk. But remember, in the long run, we're all dead.

Congrats X. I'm sure you don't need to be warned that it ain't over until the overweight Austrian sings. Back in 2002 we had a solid purchase offer for a home in Emerald Hills, contingencies removed, done deal fall apart 4 days before closing because the builder/owner/rehaber decided he would rather take an under the table all cash offer. His response to all involved "sue me". No one did (though we got our earnest deposit back with 5x interest).

Saratoga has nice trees though.

Tree is the universal indicator. Companies with good trees will do well. Neighborhoods with good trees will thrive.

"Saratoga has nice trees though"

They were nice 10 years ago as well.
Are they nicer 2-3x more since many are
paying 2-3x more 10 years ago.

"Neighborhoods with good trees will thrive"

LOL! I guess they should have never cut down the
orchards in Sunnyvale and Mountain View.

I do get a kick out of many out of state transplants.
Truly blinded by their own hype.

FAB was looking at the LX570, right?

Space Ace,

I think Peter has a point. Trees in a neighborhood = good.

Not 2x3 times good, but EVERYTHING in the bay area did 2x3 times over the last 10 years. If you can buy the exact same house in two different neighborhoods with the exact same school system, same town, etc... but one had a lot of trees and the other didn't... you could expect a slight premium (say 5%) for the tree lined neighborhood. And you'd see a slight premium in rent there, too. And the poorest people in that city won't pay 5% premium for trees for the most part, so you will end up with a slightly 'nicer' neighborhood as far as being well kept, etc.

It's not a huge influence, but it's definately an influence.

I do get a kick out of many out of state transplants.
Truly blinded by their own hype.

Huh?

Some of the trees in Stanford and along Sand Hill are really beautiful. My theory is that trees reflect the essence of their surroundings.

Peter P - "It is fine to put in bids…

...in fact, this correction requires them.

Imagine what would happen if more lowball, (say, 30% or more below asking) offers were being made?

We're already seeing examples of Buyers being less worried about offending sellers with an offer, 10-20% below asking. If it is truly a buyer's market, and you are dead set on buying now, then its time to cowboy up!

My wife and I are considering a 40% below lowball offer on a place that we see keep popping up on craigslist.

I will pay a 10% premium for trees. But I will not pay any premium for the schools.

Imagine what would happen if more lowball, (say, 30% or more below asking) offers were being made?

Very true.

My wife and I are considering a 40% below lowball offer on a place that we see keep popping up on craigslist.

Ideally, you want something that is just below your range and have them chase the price down. Give them false hope. Then take it down one notch. Repeated until their minds play games with them.

Children of rich parents rarely have the motivation of their poor parents.
Children of Saratoga and Los Gatsos grew up with lots of problems. Plenty I knew from my days in Saratoga had a Coke problem. Even today LGPD
busts on Meth are common. Rich kids with lots of money, not a good mix.
Cupertino was full of pot heads as well.

Is this a California of the 70's specific story?

I knew a lot of rich kids from NY/NJ metro area - they all turned out quite well. Most of them were lawyers, doctors, IB, etc. The high school I went to was in a tony part of the east coast - it had a 80% 4-year college rate.

www.fast-growing-trees.com

Some of these babies grow upwards of 12' a year and cost about $15-$30 per. Windbreak? Shade? Color? Whatever you're looking for they got it! I've used Arbovitaes and they suck! They take forever to grow and when they reach a certain height they take over like a mutant weed.

I wouldn't let a lack of trees keep me from the house I really wanted, and we shouldn't pay a big premium either with all the options that are out there.

Maybe the question some should be asking … Is 800K really gonna stick?
And we all know what the answer is to that. Its real value will go down reall deep and hard.

"deep and hard" are pretty relative terms. But I doubt they're going to go back to $150k of 10 years ago (which isn't true to begin with since in 1997, prices were already at $350+ plus range for a house around here.) Inflation alone would ratchet it up.

BEAR CAPITULATION ALERT!!!:
Surfer-X just put in a bid on a CA POS. Wow 8O.

X-Man,

I hope you're pulling our legs here. If not, I hope you *really* low-balled them. If funding really dries up as you say, what do you think that's going do to future prices and sales? Seriously man, think it over before you close.

If it were me, I'd pray for sellers to reject it and wait a bit longer. Either way, though, I wish you & Mrs. X the best of luck.

“deep and hard” are pretty relative terms. But I doubt they’re going to go back to $150k of 10 years ago (which isn’t true to begin with since in 1997, prices were already at $350+ plus range for a house around here.) Inflation alone would ratchet it up.

eburbed,

I don't think anyone here expects prices to revert back to 1997 levels. That's a page out of TOS's book - build a straw man argument to knock it down.

Ironic, this happens just as I get done with a thread about low-balling:

Evil Buyers Display Extreme Cruelty to Distressed Sellers

HARM,

What does a guy with a 780 FICO care if "funding dries up"? If it does, this person would have almost nothing to worry about as credit will always be extended to folks in this range. IMHO.

DinOR,

No kidding. I think it may be time for an "intervention". May have to stock up on tequila, gather the "team" and head over to $anta Barbara this weekend.

@HARM,

Now that my tax season concludes in about 4 minutes I can clear my desk and get headed south straight away!

I still have my doubts that "is" X or that he isn't pulling our leg? Prices in his area are likely higher than when I first started posting here or are only down slightly from 05's highs. I think the "give away" was mentioning "short form filing" and calfha.

"I don’t think anyone here expects prices to revert back to 1997 levels. That’s a page out of TOS’s book"

When prices decline in 1991, they rolled back to 1986 (Six years). Did we not have higher inflation back then? That was then this is now. There are no hardpressed rules that dictate prices cannot fall down to I say 1998-99 prices. Thats still in the cards.

Do you expect another wave of "6-millionaires a day" as it was back in 1999. No that game is over. You may have caught yesterdays Mercury News regarding top 150 SV employers. I been following it for long time. Do you relize many more companies are being taken out with M&A then new start-up created over even IPOs to the market.

Im still surprised by many of you who think even 600K is normal for Bay Area? If anything we are streaming into a period of deflation, which at the end will be far better off.

"BEAR CAPITULATION ALERT!!!"

LOL! no sin walking into an open house (asking $650K) and saying

I will give you $350K.
Realtor laughs and you show them the zillow chart of last sale at $200K in 1997 and ask,
"Oh! Whats changed in 10 years that warrents 200-300% increase?

LOL! Realtor may even want to sell you his Yahoo he paid $350/share.
Oh "Whats changed?"

600k is kind of a 'trigger' point for me and my wife. If we find a house we like for 600k, we'd buy it. That would require about a 25% cut in housing prices, based on what I see right now.

If prices stick, we'll keep saving for a downpayment until we can make a downpayment large enough that our debt/income is comfortably below 3. I'm willing to sacrifice 'investment opportunities' to have a happy wife in a house we like, can easily pay off in a few years, and wouldn't lose if we wound up on one salary.

Prices in his area are likely higher than when I first started posting here or are only down slightly from 05’s highs.

Ventura has taken quite a sch-lacking lately and it is within our budget now. I just don't know, way back when, in the mid 90's, just out of grad school 1, I was making decent coin but had no down, it just wouldn't work. I do have doubts in that if you don't have the down maybe you shouldn't sign the forms and make the payments. Mrs-X and I have no deductions, I think our only option to avoid the Uncle Sam man love each year is to go into debt. Either than or do the "my business loses money" thing but the stress might not be worth it. I figure if prices drop to 400K or so, this brings it into reach for those making about 80K, which is two earning 40K, which you can do at Trader Joes. It's the TJ metric. Just don't know. With the tax thingy it costs us about 300 more a month to "buy" in Ventura Vs. rent in $anta Barbara. Just don't know. DinOR, can I contact you offline?

SuCkIt

I charted the price from 10 years to now and the price we offered is dead nuts on what it "should" be now.

Space Ace,

I agree that there will be a period of deflation. The law of averages always wins. However, If you truly think prices can roll back to 1997 levels (I'd be delighted), you have to account for that in real, not nominal prices. In that case, the $350K "median" home of 1997 would be in the range of $500k to 550K, depending on the "true" inflation/appreciation rate you use. That's not that far off $350K.

Space_Ace,

There are other "M.O" indicators at play here as well. We've had countless "imposter surfer x's" at times. Typically X doesn't post during the day (1 if at all). Also the complete and utter lack of malice toward the seller is another give away.

hehehehe no, it's me DinOR, but at work I cannot "express" myself as fully as at home.

There is plenty of malice towards the seller and realtor, low ball bid, actually low low ball. Personal issues are forcing the "owners" to sell and there aren't any other offers out there. I too hope that the whole thing fails as the thought of so much debt added to my clean slate scares the crapola outa me.

Authenticate yourself, alleged surfer.

What food item did Robert cote bring to the blog party (with me, last time at your house)?

True deflation ignores any inflation at all.

Im sure we can find shortages of raw materals in Japan (which has none at all), but it never materilized into higher inflation over the past 15 years.

Back to 1997 prices may be a rough call, but 1998 is doable. You also have to consider all factors, the high flying and often crashing nature of local economy. Only 10% of 1980s employers made it into the 90's and now only a few are surviving today.

Whats the point of everone here having a $1M+ McMansion in SouthBay when the economy is tanking.

True deflation ignores any inflation at all.

Im sure we can find shortages of raw materals in Japan (which has none at all), but it never materilized into higher inflation over the past 15 years.

Back to 1997 prices may be a rough call, but 1998 is doable. You also have to consider all factors, the high flying and often crashing nature of local economy. Only 10% of 1980s employers made it into the 90's and now only a few are surviving today.

Whats the point of everone here having a $1M+ McMansion in SouthBay when the economy is tanking.

Now I'm REALLY confused.

ALL businesses lose money for at least the first (3) years. Why wouldn't a guy go the "consulting" route and play it out for at least '07 filing and see what the market brings? "I" don't see "funding drying up" for anyone but the LEAST "qualified" buyers. With a 780 and even a little savings this wouldn't include you. Why the sense of urgency now?

"the range of $500k to 550K"... too much for a home here. Thats what I call a CEO Home... When you are being paid that much your job will be exported. Seen that way too many times already.

Everyone wants to play the Chief and no one wants to be just an Indian.

Peter P,

Hear hear! What exactly did Robert bring?

Well??? We're waiting...

Space Ace,

Speaking of "high flying economy," did you catch the SFGate article on the Web 2.0 expo up in SF?

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/04/17/BUGCQP9MKB1.DTL

How much more smugness can one place have? Everyone's patting themselves on the back over a bunch of smoke and mirrors known as "Web 2.0".

What food item did Robert cote bring to the blog party (with me, last time at your house)?

Hmmm, can't remember what Cote' etal. brought but his wife is pretty hot, (as is Mrs HARM), the Cote'-ette lit off fireworks and painted with Mrs-X.

You brought some interesting Miso, red and blue.

DinOR, just had a list of requirements and a price, found a place that met both. I know that it is going to keep dropping but there has to be a Mexican stand-off somewhere. The current bailout proposals just scream backlash to me, and the way to "assure" that "this doesn't happen again" is to screw the middle class. Plus mini-X is due to arrive in August. I don't like being at the whim of the landlord, I can handle that I have to make the payment, but landlord can at anytime give me a month to get out. Dogs make finding a rental down here a pain in the ass. Landlord is cool, but I'd rather deal with myself.

Thats what I call a CEO Home…

CEO income ranges from $1 to $100M+. I am not sure what you mean.

Outsourcing does not happen overnight. It has a lot of stickiness to it.

BTW, 600K is at the same time a lot and very little depending on how you see it. Wages in India and China are going up like crazy. Perhaps they will catch up to us.

In China, a nice house will still cost you US$ 2M+.

600K gets you nothing more than an old, tiny apartment in many parts of Asia but those people still have jobs.

Peter P,

One could always just search for "blog party" and could have gotten that, right?