patrick.net

Space Ace,

I agree that there will be a period of deflation. The law of averages always wins. However, If you truly think prices can roll back to 1997 levels (I'd be delighted), you have to account for that in real, not nominal prices. In that case, the $350K "median" home of 1997 would be in the range of $500k to 550K, depending on the "true" inflation/appreciation rate you use. That's not that far off $350K.

Space_Ace,

There are other "M.O" indicators at play here as well. We've had countless "imposter surfer x's" at times. Typically X doesn't post during the day (1 if at all). Also the complete and utter lack of malice toward the seller is another give away.

hehehehe no, it's me DinOR, but at work I cannot "express" myself as fully as at home.

There is plenty of malice towards the seller and realtor, low ball bid, actually low low ball. Personal issues are forcing the "owners" to sell and there aren't any other offers out there. I too hope that the whole thing fails as the thought of so much debt added to my clean slate scares the crapola outa me.

Authenticate yourself, alleged surfer.

What food item did Robert cote bring to the blog party (with me, last time at your house)?

True deflation ignores any inflation at all.

Im sure we can find shortages of raw materals in Japan (which has none at all), but it never materilized into higher inflation over the past 15 years.

Back to 1997 prices may be a rough call, but 1998 is doable. You also have to consider all factors, the high flying and often crashing nature of local economy. Only 10% of 1980s employers made it into the 90's and now only a few are surviving today.

Whats the point of everone here having a $1M+ McMansion in SouthBay when the economy is tanking.

True deflation ignores any inflation at all.

Im sure we can find shortages of raw materals in Japan (which has none at all), but it never materilized into higher inflation over the past 15 years.

Back to 1997 prices may be a rough call, but 1998 is doable. You also have to consider all factors, the high flying and often crashing nature of local economy. Only 10% of 1980s employers made it into the 90's and now only a few are surviving today.

Whats the point of everone here having a $1M+ McMansion in SouthBay when the economy is tanking.

Now I'm REALLY confused.

ALL businesses lose money for at least the first (3) years. Why wouldn't a guy go the "consulting" route and play it out for at least '07 filing and see what the market brings? "I" don't see "funding drying up" for anyone but the LEAST "qualified" buyers. With a 780 and even a little savings this wouldn't include you. Why the sense of urgency now?

"the range of $500k to 550K"... too much for a home here. Thats what I call a CEO Home... When you are being paid that much your job will be exported. Seen that way too many times already.

Everyone wants to play the Chief and no one wants to be just an Indian.

Peter P,

Hear hear! What exactly did Robert bring?

Well??? We're waiting...

Space Ace,

Speaking of "high flying economy," did you catch the SFGate article on the Web 2.0 expo up in SF?

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/04/17/BUGCQP9MKB1.DTL

How much more smugness can one place have? Everyone's patting themselves on the back over a bunch of smoke and mirrors known as "Web 2.0".

What food item did Robert cote bring to the blog party (with me, last time at your house)?

Hmmm, can't remember what Cote' etal. brought but his wife is pretty hot, (as is Mrs HARM), the Cote'-ette lit off fireworks and painted with Mrs-X.

You brought some interesting Miso, red and blue.

DinOR, just had a list of requirements and a price, found a place that met both. I know that it is going to keep dropping but there has to be a Mexican stand-off somewhere. The current bailout proposals just scream backlash to me, and the way to "assure" that "this doesn't happen again" is to screw the middle class. Plus mini-X is due to arrive in August. I don't like being at the whim of the landlord, I can handle that I have to make the payment, but landlord can at anytime give me a month to get out. Dogs make finding a rental down here a pain in the ass. Landlord is cool, but I'd rather deal with myself.

Thats what I call a CEO Home…

CEO income ranges from $1 to $100M+. I am not sure what you mean.

Outsourcing does not happen overnight. It has a lot of stickiness to it.

BTW, 600K is at the same time a lot and very little depending on how you see it. Wages in India and China are going up like crazy. Perhaps they will catch up to us.

In China, a nice house will still cost you US$ 2M+.

600K gets you nothing more than an old, tiny apartment in many parts of Asia but those people still have jobs.

Peter P,

One could always just search for "blog party" and could have gotten that, right?

One could always just search for “blog party” and could have gotten that, right?

Nope, Peter P's wife (who is also hot) went to the Mission with her friend. Peter P, your miso was interesting, I can't for the life of me figure out how they keep the clams alive.

Bush II is the President, the Cubs won the world series, and Boston is the capital of New York. Sorry, watching too many WWII movies. (authentication of German spies)

I can’t for the life of me figure out how they keep the clams alive.

I now believe the clams where vacuum-packed and then COOKED. That was how they kept them "alive." :)

One could always just search for “blog party” and could have gotten that, right?

I never mentioned the miso though. :)

DinOR, I am not a money guy, the best I can gleen out of the data is that you should only pay ~2.3-3.8x your income on housing. The coast has always been a little more expensive, so I am willing to go about 4x, that's my comfort zone. What did it for me was the calhfa program including 6 months of payments in the deal. 5.625% seems pretty close to free money for me, just from reading you guys, and what I know the inflation to actually be. There is a huge fear factor in the increased monthly nut but not as big as trying to find a new rental with 2 dogs, Mrs-X and Lil-X. Everyone I have interviewed says the same thing, they were scared shitless when the "bought" their first house. We waited and waited and are not willing to do the it's your first house thing, it's supposed to be a crapbox, this place is nice and needs nothing. So screw it.

DinOR, Peter P,

I'm afraid we must conclude that this is the *real* Surfer-X.

X-man, if you were able to get anything liveable (never mind turnkey) in Ventura for 4X non-CEO income, then I guess you really did power-lowball them. Congratulations! You are the first (hopefully among many) on this blog to successfully crack seller's mental accounting and get a truly "fair market" price.

Perhaps Mr. Randall H is next...?

Surfer-X, you have my karmic support. We will manifest your success!

El HARM-O, I have full faith that the realtor/seller's greed will negate any chance of them accepting the fair market value for this one. I had originally predicted 3rd/4th quarter 07 as the point to catch the falling knife. We'll see. Regardless we should start preparing for the summer blog party.

Another bonus of Ventura is Kaiser is available. Dude, the freaking hell we are going through with UnitedHealthCare.

What is this, "6 months of payments included in the deal" deal?

Dude, the freaking hell we are going through with UnitedHealthCare.

UNH? I sold too early. :(

What is this, “6 months of payments included in the deal” deal?

That depends what the definition of is is.

Re: blog party. I agree.
Am willing to host it at my own pathetic rental, though my place isn't big. LILLL and Athena also mentioned hosting --we'll have to talk offline.

DinOR, calhfa makes the payments if you lose you job, up to 6 months, which from experience is about what it takes to find another decent job.

Well... as long as the seller was utterly financially decimated and sent to the closing with their tail between their legs and has to deal with X's former LL then I guess I can get onboard! :)

Don't forget to add stipulations and reservations all throughout the entire process with statements like "We just assumed the appliances were staying"! Threaten to "back out" at the slightest hint of compromise and just be a general PITA every step of the way! When you're done w/them the LAST thing they'll ever want to do is to flip another house!

OH.... o.k.

I wasn't sure if it was one of those Vegas "cash back deals" or NO payments for the first year! It's about time they have some "PMI" for the buyer! Any other states have similar programs?

Another bonus of Ventura is Kaiser is available. Dude, the freaking hell we are going through with UnitedHealthCare.

Kaiser has their issues, too. There's a reason it's the cheapest HMO out there.

skibum, I have had good luck with Kaiser and I understand their billing, Shot? $15.00, got a cold? $15.00, mauled by a Grizzly? $15.00, bee sting? $15.00

Last Dec Mrs-X had an Asthma attack, Mrs-X is 4 months pregnant, I called UHC's advice nurse, the work advice nurse and the hospital, all 3 said "go to the emergency room" we go to emergency room, UHC pays this as a non-emergency emergency, and pays the attending Dr. the network rate, Dr is not in the network. Cost me $1200 out of pocket and I have spent 4 months trying to fix it. None of this crap happened at Kaiser.

Cost me $1200 out of pocket and I have spent 4 months trying to fix it. None of this crap happened at Kaiser.

Geez, that bites.

I'll admit that sounds worse than Kaiser. Kaiser's issues are:

good: cheap coverage, decent care *in general*.

bad: cost-cutting means, occasionally, you will be denied care for things they consider "cutting edge."

For most young, generally healthy people, Kaiser is great. Really sick people I think get less than optimal care there.

(Not healthcare advice).

skibum,

Kaiser now has a PPO plan available for when you need/want to go out of network. Typically pays 80%, with 20% out-of-pocket after deductible is met.

I had Kaiser for awhile. They're great until you get REALLY hurt/sick. Then... not so much.

I had Kaiser for awhile. They’re great until you get REALLY hurt/sick. Then… not so much.

SFBB, Exactly.

Kaiser now has a PPO plan available for when you need/want to go out of network. Typically pays 80%, with 20% out-of-pocket after deductible is met.

HARM, 20% out-of-pocket is fine until you need a bone marrow transplant ($100k or so), coronary bypass operation (same price range), or other major intervention, if there happens to be some tweak on it that Kaiser deems "outside of the standard of medical care."

Maybe you're right - we should talk about healthcare sometime - how does it relate to housing? FB's forgoing basic healthcare to cover housing payments? Aging boomers and their effect on healthcare vs. housing?

Hello all!

I really love this blog and I'm looking to find doom bloggers who know something about the Valencia/Santa Clarita area of Los Angeles.

I've been sitting out the market for two years hoping sanity would come back to prices, but I've lost patience and decided to buy. I can't put my family's life on hold any longer.

Anyone got tips or info about buying in the Valencia area? I've pretty much identified the neighborhood, fired up my Foreclosure.com account, and started working the area with a buyer/rebate agent.

Thoughts?

smarter jukubots, please!

Surfer-X,

Mazel tov!

Hey, I'm not a bot! I guess my post does sound very botish though.

Seriously, any Valencia area info would be great.

astrid tanks!

And just to add to the conversation, yes UnitedHealthcare blows. Kaiser has been great.