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Why Aren't You Talking About Real Estate?
2007 May 29, 4:19am 4,825 views 14 comments
by astrid follow (0)
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Randy, yes, that's my point exactly. If you look hard enough, you definitely see bargains at the micro-level. At the macro-level, it's murkier. But I'm now very confident that the slide is happening. (Check out this post on craigslist: http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/rfs/338727108.html)
It's been fascinating to watch things fall apart first in Phoenix and Sacramento (maybe 1.5 years ago), then in Napa/Sonoma (about a year ago), then in East Bay (starting last year) and then in pockets of Marin/SF/Peninsula (now).
The craigslist post is pretty telling. We all saw developers giving away swimming pools and granite counters in Sacramento in 2005-2006. Yesterday there was an article about a house selling at auction for 50% off it's original selling price.
When you see SOMA developers giving away cars, you know that it can't be that long before the train hits. Plenty of people are still standing around on the tracks though...
I do think it'll take a few more years before it's common knowledge. Still cheap (dumb) money floating around. Stocks still climbing. LBOs still happening. China still lending....
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Since we're experiencing a slow time at this blog, I thought it might be a good time to put up a thread to answer the occasional complaints about this blog's tendency to go off topic.
This way, whenever the complaint pops up, someone can simply link to this thread and then we can go on talking about the kind of knife to use with horse sashimi or the risk of terrorism in the greater Buffalo area.
astrid
#housing