patrick.net

I speculated that as the U.S. dollar weakens, all sorts of stuff will come back onshore. Or at least, the rate of offshoring will decrease markedly. I think many outsourcing and manufacturing trends will show themselves to be terribly short-sighted in the coming years. Consider that after WW-II, Europe embraced cheaper U.S. manufacturing, only to see the benefits decrease as the U.S. economy boomed.

In another decade, I think we will regret disbanding manufacturing here, especially of higher-end products. The Chinese and Indian economies have a lot of U.S. dollars floating around, and as their standard of living climbs they will want to spend that money. Some of that money would come back here, except that we create less and less every year...

SpaceAce: I think that semiconductors and electronics are a special industry with regards to manufacturing. Companies like TSMC aren't relying on cheap labor to compete. I have worked with TSMC, and they benefit from economy of scale and excellent process control. Although I would also point out that they get government subsidies and often a much improved tax rate over U.S. corporations.

What we see in semiconductors is that profitable threshold to own your own fab has risen with falling geometries. In the 80's there were a lot of small fabs, but in a few years none of them could move to 0.25 micron tech or bigger wafers because the equipment and infrastructure was too expensive. In the 90's we saw the same thing with 0.18 and 0.13 micron, but now even bigger companies were closing their personal fabs. Now there is a huge falloff with 300 mm wafers and 90 nm process technology (0.09 micron). The equipment is so outrageously expensive that almost everyone would rather go to TSMC or another professional foundry because it minimizes risk. Foundries have enough customers to amortize the equipment, and they run enough wafers to truly tune the process. Only huge companies like Intel, AMD, Philips, Siemens, ST Micro, Texas Instruments, LSI Logic, etc. have the sheer scale to justify developing and owning their fabs.

My prediction: as 65 nm goes mainstream, you will see fab closures within even the biggest companies. They close old fabs all the time, but you will see fewer revamps to the next process node and fewer builds of new fabs. The same will happen at 45 nm, and then at 32 nm. Companies need the cost decreases that smaller geometries and larger wafers can provide, but the equipment required to fab that stuff is completely out of their reach.

Pretty much anything in this observation can be applied to printed circuit boards and IC packages as well. Asia has simply become a foundry for the world. Excellent foresight on their part, and probably not much dependent on cheap labor.

Hi. Just seeing why my posts aren't appearing.

My posts aren't showing up for some reason.

OK, working now I guess. Must have been something in the content.

This ties in a little with what I posted a few weeks ago. The blog is most interesting when there are heated debates about whether or not there is a bubble, and when it will pop, and how much it will drop etc...

There are a very few people left who try to stir things up, but overall the debate is pretty much dead. I'm sure we will monitor DQ's property to see what it actually closes for. That will be a fun conversation when we get the numbers. I'd like to see thread content morph into where do we go from here? Do we collectively share ideas on real estate? How are current events effecting the generally accepted scenario? What are the up and coming areas to invest in? The answers to requests for advice I find the most fun. I enjoy not just point counterpoint in a black and white debate but I also enjoy the subtle differences in stategic moves as well.

There's still a lot to talk about. I for one am really noticing overall deflationary pressures everywhere I look. The WalMart effect on our general economy is very good in the short term, but long term I see stagflation with even higher deficits, more sliding in our currency, continued abysmal interest rates, and a horrible deskilling effect on the country.

Is the word D-airyQu--n blocked? My post worked when I changed it to DQ.

affecting ~

Malcom:

Care to enumerate some deflationary pressures? I believe the buying power of the U.S. dollar is falling relative to other countries. That is an inflationary scenario, considering the size of our trade deficits. I'm having a hard time envisioning a situation where the buying power of the U.S. dollar is increasing daily within the country itself. I do believe that deflation might happen as a local phenomenon in specific markets like bubble area housing, but that's not really deflation so much as a rational market correction.

A falling U.S. dollar doesn't necessarily concern me from an economic standpoint. If our goods become less expensive to the rest of the world (again), then that will have a positive effect on U.S. jobs and trade output. At some point China and Japan will have to start doing something with all the U.S. dollars they've stockpiled over the years. I expect that China at least might buy oil and hard resources (steel, copper, uranium, lumber, etc.), which will drive up energy costs in the U.S.

You can sell me on unpleasant but bearable inflation for the next couple of years. I doubt the stagflation scenario, and as Randy and others have often pointed out, no dominant military power has ever really suffered deflation in the last couple hundred years (at least, not until they were defeated).

China is actually entering into pact with the US to support our dollar while getting a cut of some financial asset of the US. The blackstone deal is a way for them to test water.

Not a smart IMHO, they'd be much better off buying hard assets. But if someone wishes to hold USD the bag a bit longer, I am all for it. After all, the last time I checked I am still paid in USD.

China is actually entering into pact with the US to support our dollar while getting a cut of some financial asset of the US. The blackstone deal is a way for them to test water.

Not a smart move IMHO, they'd be much better off buying hard assets outright. However, they need to worry about engineering a soft landing internally with the twin housing and stock market bubble so there are not that many comfortable choices to choose from. But if someone wishes to hold USD the bag a bit longer, I am all for it. After all, the last time I checked I am still paid in USD.

"Thanks lunarpark - can you elaborate?"

It's just always been sort of trashy - thinking back to the 80's. I don't get over there very often these days, but it doesn't seem to have improved. I could be wrong though. Maybe a Mtn View resident would be able to give you more insight.

A falling dollar scenario as you point out would be a good thing in my opinion as well. I'd like to be wrong on that point, but it just doesn't seem to be happening, although logically it should. I've thought the same thing, what will Japan and China do with the dollars. It is a nice surplus to them, but it is a depreciating asset if they just sit on it. The problem is that we just print more money, it is not like the money they have is backed by anything. The value add in our economy is now done overseas, and those sorts of ramifications are some things I'd like to talk about. I like to throw a thought like that out there to get some feedback. I'm definitely flexible and not fully decided on some of the macro short to long term outlook. We have discussed some outsourcing issues on the blog before, but I am curious what happens as it moves not only from the tangible value ad, but into the engineering and scientific fields as well. I guess my point is that all of this deskilling going on wll have a net negative impact on real economic growth.

Then again, Japan, and China loan us back our own trade deficit to supplement the annual budget deficit. It is my understanding that they are also propping up the mortgage fund bonds which are currently losing value. Basically they are misspending their surplus by reinvesting in our economy.

theotherside,

The article you quoted puts median middle class household income at $63,000. An income this low does not even begin to quailify for a homeloan on a median priced home in the Los Angeles area. My wife and I earn more than twice that amount and we also can't realisticaly qualify for a loan that will get us into a home here in L.A. even with over $100,000 saved as a down payment. Both of us have good credit scores. If we accept the definition of upper class as stated in the article ($91,000 and above)in the current housing market here it takes a very solid upper class income to be able to afford a small starter home. Does this really seem normal or right to you? I won't attempt to speak for the rest of the country but here in the Los Angeles I do believe that the middle class is struggling. If I, with my so called upper class income, am unable to afford a decent home in the working class neighborhood I grew up in, how hard must things be for those in the middle class.

MrPerfect,

I love my job, and under normal circumstances my pay would be considered excellent. The problem is the massive housing bubble has created abnormal circumstances in which all but the very wealthy are shut out of the housing market. As I said, I supposedly have an upper class income and yet can't even begin to afford a decent home in the L.A. area. Something that at one time was well within the means of most middle class wage earners. I am not optimistic about my economic prospects in this region and that is entirely due to the high cost of housing here. I would, however, describe my feelings about the situation as disappointed rather than "bitter". This is the area that I have lived in my entire life and as a result the vast majority of my family and friends are here, so Ill stick around for a couple more years at least to see if the much needed correction takes place while I continue to build up my downpayment. If thing don't change I'll have no choice but to leave.

I honestly don't understand how anyone can say that everything is fine and the economy is wonderful when the only way for most of us to afford a home is through a gun to the head suicide loan. Interst only serves only the banks interest and option arms ultimately leave you with no option but forclosure.

Malcom says: I agree with you that if buying power falls on imports that is inflationary, however the biggest trade partner is China and they are forcing their currency down giving us increasing buying power.

Hence why China is diversifying away from U.S. Treasuries. They are buying select companies and equity portfolios (higher returns, possible inflation hedges), as well as establishing diversified currency positions with Euros. The Euro has really changed the economic landscape in the last few years. Prior to the Euro, only the Soviet Union really had a universal currency to rival the U.S. dollar. And of course, the USSR's money wasn't accepted in the majority of the world's wealthy areas. Nobody in the first world could muster the same throw weight as the United States. You could argue for the GBP, but I don't think there's enough of them out there, at least not for the level of foreign ownership that Japan and China have in the USD.

Anyway, China is going to unpeg their currency eventually. First they have to get diversified, otherwise they would just devalue the USD overnight and torpedo their biggest foreign investment. The Chinese aren't ones to cut off their nose to spite their face.

I often think that this could be a really a brilliant strategy on China's part. Their government is buying U.S. Treasuries. This funds our demand for their products, producing a positive feedback cycle. Instead of forcing payback and hyperinflation, the Chinese could simply start buying up more of U.S. firms. Or they can purchase excellent U.S. equipment for things like power plants, coal mines, oil rigs and other heavy industry, thus securing their own energy and financial future. Right now they're funding their own space program.

Point being, since most of the world takes U.S. dollars, you can do a lot as a cash-positive government earning a lot of interest every year.

I have wondered this, though. Is currency like energy? The rules say that it is neither created nor destroyed, save by the government itself. Which means that if the Chinese are buying U.S. Treasuries in USD, they must be exchanging their own currency somewhere. Are there huge piles of Chinese money somewhere in the first world? Maybe buying Chinese currency would be a good hedge, because if they ever unpeg, it's going to surge like crazy.

Oh, and how can they remain pegged, and still have such superheated economic growth relative to the rest of the world. Is it internally driven or what?

One more point for you to think about if I may. There would also be an effect if our economy goes to pot. I believe that the rest of the world has benefitted from our illusionary prosperity. I would venture a speculation that there is a multiplier effect as our national value (things you describe: corporate stocks, the US dollar, equipment) drops. Like you said, a lot of that money finds its way back here in the form of investments which lose value as we become recessionary. Great article a couple of days ago about all the English investors losing money in FL condos.

My crystal ball says in 6 months we will officially be in recession with two consecutive periods of declining GNP. The latest figure is 1/3 of what was forecast putting us a .6%. That basically means our economy is stagnant.

Brand Says:
June 3rd, 2007 at 9:48 pm
"Oh, and how can they remain pegged, and still have such superheated economic growth relative to the rest of the world. Is it internally driven or what? "

It is externally driven by our Walmart model of using the currency difference as a way of getting cheap labor in relation to our currency value. They peg it because on the flip side of what you said earlier, lower currency value makes your goods more desireable for export because they are so cheap for someone to import.

Now, the free market is a very powerful force. As their workers who turn consumers gain more wealth and power, in theory they then want products of their own. So, do they buy from themselves or do they buy from us. We do have some things uniquely American, such as arts and entertainment, great tourism places to visit, and of course raw materials. China pays $200 a ton for cardboard and paper. It is only worth $50 a ton here.