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More on price stabilization bye the Fed (pun intended)


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2010 Aug 1, 1:15pm   24,618 views  184 comments

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Aug. 1, 2010

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Coming Currency Crisis

By Pat McGeehan

Freedom lies at its darkest hour not by threat of sword, but by threat of poverty. And our country’s impoverished condition continues. The American Republic is dying. Our nation is bankrupt. This is no longer a Republican or Democrat “issue”—it’s just a “math” issue. Tomorrow, if the entire federal government was eliminated—including the US Military—we could still not afford to pay for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. We would still run a budget deficit. These three bloated programs and we can’t foot the bill. For anyone not yet paying attention, this sobering predicament is your wake up call.

Furthermore, despite what you may hear to the contrary, the economic depression still lingers. It will get worse. To examine what this means to your future, we must examine the cause of our economic downturns and how it is bankrupting our society.

The source does not rest with “Wall Street greed” or a shortage of consumer spending. The real cause of our economic roller coaster ride stems from an opaque institution known as the Federal Reserve. This quasi-government creature not only orchestrates the “booms” and “busts” we are familiar with, but it also makes possible our colossal national debt. While our country’s central bank may not seem very significant to your daily life, it’s crucial Americans begin to pay more attention.

All of our past economic depressions or “busts” are caused because the Federal Reserve increases the nation’s supply of money. Though hidden through complex bureaucratic terminology, the process is really quite simple. To “stimulate” the economy, the Federal Reserve utilizes its money printing tools to artificially lower interest rates. IOU checks are written by the Fed to the nation’s largest and most politically-connected banks, and with a few keystrokes of the computer, money is created out of thin air. These big banks gain more cash on hand, profiting by having the privilege of being the first lender. Remember though, all this newly granted cash is counterfeit. These reserves represent zero new resources produced and saved from economic growth. However, by printing more money, the Federal Reserve gives the appearance that more resources are now available for investment, and so begins the boom. It should be noted, this counterfeiting bank cartel is purely a product of government. There is nothing “free market” about it.

When something is more plentiful or abundant, the price tends to fall. This is also true of the interest rate, which plummets as the supply of paper money increases. After the Fed injects counterfeit reserves into the vaults of its member banks, the price of this diluted capital now appears cheaper. But remember, all of the genuine resources in the economy have now been watered-down by the government counterfeit. The interest rate does not fall because of an increase in voluntary savings; but through government intervention. The Federal Reserve is simply price fixing.

The new counterfeit money now makes its way into our economy from the banking system, typically first appearing through the loan market. The Fed deceives businessmen and entrepreneurs, who because of the lower interest rates, are falsely signaled more resources are available to invest in long term projects. These artificially cheap rates cause banks to make more business loans, and more credit is granted. As a result, more projects are started, and more investments are made. Politicians in office are praised for healthy economic prosperity. But it’s simply an illusion—all of it pure fantasy. The government’s counterfeit merely diluted scarce resources, causing real capital to become misallocated, squandered, and ultimately wasted. The situation just outlined has been the plague of our American economy.

Thus, it is important to note that the boom phase is the unhealthy stage where the economy grows sick. All of these new investment projects cannot be sustained, as consumers never actually demanded any of them. Once the money-printing scheme ceases, the bust phase sets in. All of these businesses or projects are now realized to be, in fact “malinvestments” and they must be liquidated (i.e. an overabundance of houses for which no one demanded be constructed). Businesses close. Mass unemployment is created—all at once. These recessions are painful but necessary for true healthy economic growth to resume in the country. Trying to sustain the boom is equal to trying to keep the economy sick.

Our primary illness now is that we have tried to deny that our economy has been sick. By doing so, we have merely prolonged the recession. Through trillion dollar stimulus plans and even lower interest rates, we have aggravated our economic woes. The Federal Reserve has now maintained 0% interest rates for 21 months straight, a reckless and unprecedented government maneuver. But the denial can only last so long.

Our denial has exchanged short term pain for long term misery. Our spending and money printing has prompted a coming currency crisis. The US dollar is losing its value and the country faces possible hyperinflation, or even the collapse of our paper money system. Prices will rise higher and higher, robbing the poor and driving middle class families into poverty, as they are forced to eat away at their savings to compensate for higher food and energy costs. Interest rates at the national level will begin to rise, and no trick left in the Fed’s playbook will be able to stop this. As our national debt mounts, we will face insurmountable payments on our annual interest alone (likely exceeding 65% of all federal tax receipts within the next 3 years).

If history is a benchmark, we will attempt to “print-up” even more money to pay for it, throwing more and more worthless paper into circulation. Unless we do something soon, this is the end game. Prolonged economic depression, rising unemployment, and 20 dollars for a loaf of bread—15 bucks for a gallon of milk. This is a real possibility—and this is what it could look like for you and your family.

http://www.huntingtonnews.net/columns/100801-mcgeehan-columnscrisis.html

#politics

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109   marcus   2010 Aug 14, 6:23am  

Honest Abe says

I’ll repeat - the Fed is a fraud. It’s allowed to “price fix” interest rates.

The fed sets the fed funds rate and the discount rate. Other short term rates are "discovered" in a market and depend on what investors will pay for T-Bills. Yes these rates are very correlated and fed can impact them, but not control them.

Then there are medium term and long term interest rates which are (usually) less dependent on fed action and more dependent on the market for these securities ( see the "yield curve") That is the market sets the price and therefore the interest rates. Mortgage rates are then tied to these interest rates. You may recall a time under Fed chairman Volker when short term interest rates were being raised in an effort to get the market to lower long term rates (that is the market's perception of future inflation).

I say usually, because only during this crisis has the Fed actually become involved in the mortgage market, and that is part of the intervention that I assume we were debating above.

If only I was able to see the forest more clearly than all the trees, then I could have the kind of "I feel it in my gut" intelligence that you and GW Bush had.

I still say it's very complicated. But maybe you're right. Since I can't (or won't) understand it, I should just believe what I want to believe. That would definitely be easier, and maybe more emotionally pleasing. (no that wouldn't work, because I know when I am lying to myself).

110   marcus   2010 Aug 14, 6:52am  

Honest Abe says

Artifically low rates (price fixing) cause production to be based on a level of demand that doesn’t exist.

What about all the money being generated by expanding economies, especially China, and their demand for dollar denominated securities ? Do you think that might have effected interest rates ? Yes when real interest rates (the difference between inflation and interest rates) get too low, it can if we're not careful cause "malinvestment." Maybe the fed was in error for not spotting the situation, or of (a guess) being too concerned about a "buy the rumor sell the fact" crash in the new millennium. I'm not defending the Fed to the point of saying they are perfect or that they don't make mistakes. But you oversimplify things and put to much blame on them. And the fed doesn't control interest rates as much as you think.

111   scottporter1212   2010 Aug 14, 7:58am  

Here's an excellent article written about the money supply debate during the 20s, if you care to read it. Marcus--I liked the article post from the Mises Institute. Solid.

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/money-and-gold-in-the-1920s-and-1930s-an-austrian-view/#

112   scottporter1212   2010 Aug 14, 8:09am  

And for nomo-homo...nice picture of Forest Gump...you must share his IQ.

Inflation is the increase in the supply of money. This definition was widely accepted up through the early parts of the 20th century...the British Currency School was a large proponent of this definition, as well as of course the early Austrians (Carl Menger, Bohm Bawerk) and later Mises and Hayek (who is also a Nobel Prize winner I might add, before they started de-basing this award). It wasn't until central banking began to predominate the political landscape in the 1920s that you began to see a shift away from this definition to the focus on the symptoms (prices)...to the point that we now have such a massaged and manipulated indicator for inflation in the CPI.

113   marcus   2010 Aug 14, 8:38am  

scottporter1212 says

Marcus–I liked the article post from the Mises Institute. Solid

I had major problems with it. Just wanted you to know that I do consider the austrian point of view, before rejecting it.

Have you learned anything today about how interest rates are determined ? Or what causes inflation ?

114   scottporter1212   2010 Aug 14, 9:16am  

How the rate of interest is determined? The natural rate of interest is determined by consumer time-preferences...individual valuations of future goods over present. See my earlier posts about inflation. A higher time-preference places more emphasis on present goods...and vice-versa. Future media of exchange always commands a premium. Interference...or as Honest Abe points out..."price-fixing" causes the chaotic fall out we so often see. Even without the Fed price-fixing, any inflation in the supply of money, via fiduiciary media--unbacked by voluntary savings--causes rates of interest to appear lower than what it actually is. This help?

115   marcus   2010 Aug 14, 10:44am  

Abe and Scott, not only do you two not know what you don't know, you don't read my comments. But Scott at least you are aware of your ignorance enough to cut and paste your answers. Abe would do the same, but only if there was an extreme right wing source. Maybe the extreme right wing should come up with it's own special version of Wikipedia for you guys.

116   scottporter1212   2010 Aug 14, 11:38am  

By the way....in regards to the drug comment...the Austrian school offers good analysis on the failures of the so-called drug war and prohibition...hardly "right wing".

117   scottporter1212   2010 Aug 14, 11:42am  

And from most of the comments on here against: It doesn't look like too many of the nays have a broad background throughout these aformentioned economic works...

118   PeopleUnited   2010 Aug 14, 8:19pm  

marcus says

I often wonder whether the fundamentalist branch of the republican party actually think that if Jesus was here today that he would be a republican ?

They probably do. Just like Moslems believe that God is on their side. But when it comes to Jesus, if he were here today I would expect he would be hated by both the religious leaders and the government because he routinely broke man's rules to follow God's. The people who would hate him the most though would be the pastors and other religious types who think they are the moral authorities.

marcus says

Maybe most people start with what they want to believe, and come up with their best arguments to support those beliefs.

Sounds like climate "science."

119   marcus   2010 Aug 15, 1:13am  

What is your answer Scott, the Fed ?

120   marcus   2010 Aug 15, 1:41am  

I agree about the lack of regulation. I thought this was one of the most interesting looks at the financial crisis, probably it was a link that Patrick shared.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2009/09/a-grand-unified-theory-of-the-financial-crash/26939/

read this Scott , if you want a peek at the "shadow banking system." The question is, how did sub-prime junk get transformed in to securities that could somehow be sold to conservative investors ?

121   Honest Abe   2010 Aug 15, 3:40am  

And what is the benefit to society of fiscal irresponsibility?

I can't help but notice all you progressive, liberal, moderate, socialist leaning, leftie's continue to duck and dodge this question. What are you waiting for?

122   marcus   2010 Aug 15, 3:59am  

I don't know Abe, why can't you tell me what the benefit to society is of Fascism ? Get it ? I'm implying you want fascism sort of like you are implying liberals want fiscal irresponsibility.

See what I did there ?

123   tatupu70   2010 Aug 15, 10:13am  

bob2356 says

Yes, that was my point exactly. Banks didn’t care what they wrote since it was passed on to the unregulated market.

That's mostly true--but remember banks lost a LOT of money too. They were more than just middlemen.

124   Honest Abe   2010 Aug 15, 11:16am  

Oh darn, I keep forgetting, I'm debating people with psychopathological "issues". That explains a lot about the abusrdity of your responses. Now I understand.

125   marcus   2010 Aug 15, 11:25am  

Is that what they call irony ?

126   Honest Abe   2010 Aug 15, 11:48am  

Marcus, with all due respect, did you read the insane post by Nomo, above @ 5:27pm? If you don't agree that his post is psychopathlogical, then you may be suffering from the same affliction.

127   marcus   2010 Aug 15, 12:51pm  

Abe, I even walked you through it.

marcus says

I don’t know Abe, why can’t you tell me what the benefit to society is of Fascism ? Get it ? I’m implying you want fascism sort of like you are implying liberals want fiscal irresponsibility.

See what I did there ?

Nomo was just doing a more extreme version, and my guess is good chance he didn't see that I did the same thing earlier. The fact that he had the same impulse, might tell you something. I think we are trying to teach you something as much as anything. You don't get to just make up what it is we think, based on some 30 year old exaggerated notion of "tax and spend liberals" as opposed to "borrow and spend" republicans.

128   marcus   2010 Aug 15, 12:54pm  

And besides, it's a relatively undisputed fact that the most fiscally responsible president of the last 20 years was Bill Clinton.

129   marcus   2010 Aug 15, 1:03pm  

Abe, why can't you just say, hey, I'm selfish, I want lower taxes and I don't want my government spending a lot of my hard earned tax dollars helping people who aren't me !

Instead you have to come up with all of these convoluted arguments against "liberal policies." Liberals have a mental problems,....liberals want to spend irresponsibly, liberals want to spoil our culture, ..., liberals are for totalitarianism, ...liberals live in a fantasy world,...etc., etc.,....

130   elliemae   2010 Aug 15, 3:47pm  

New motto for Nomo:
Nomograph: progressive, liberal, moderate, socialist leaning, leftie who's been psychopathologically insane since 2009.

131   Bap33   2010 Aug 15, 4:32pm  

AdHominem says

marcus says


I often wonder whether the fundamentalist branch of the republican party actually think that if Jesus was here today that he would be a republican ?

They probably do. Just like Moslems believe that God is on their side. But when it comes to Jesus, if he were here today I would expect he would be hated by both the religious leaders and the government because he routinely broke man’s rules to follow God’s. The people who would hate him the most though would be the pastors and other religious types who think they are the moral authorities.
marcus says

Maybe most people start with what they want to believe, and come up with their best arguments to support those beliefs.

Sounds like climate “science.”

excellant post

132   tatupu70   2010 Aug 16, 12:28am  

Honest Abe says

You’re so happy attempting to provide everything to everybody, trying to create an imaginary Utopia, that you and your kind “feel good” about spending money you don’t have. That concept is so basic and simple, yet it sailed 20 miles BELOW your uneducated head’s.

Abe--who feels this way? I know you didn't understand Marcus and Nomo, so let's spell it out. I don't know anyone who thinks this. It's definitely not in the liberal playbook...

133   marcus   2010 Aug 16, 6:41am  

Nomograph says

Honest Abe says
And what is the benefit to society of fiscal irresponsibility?
I can’t help but notice all you progressive, liberal, moderate, socialist leaning, leftie’s continue to duck and dodge this question. What are you waiting for?

Nomograph says

And what is the benefit to society of child molestation?
I can’t help but notice all you conservative, fascist, racist nazis continue to duck and dodge this question. What are you waiting for?

Regarding psychological well being and mental health:

Nomograph didn't mean that he thinks Abe is any of the above. (nor did I in a similar post) The only point was the "straw man" idea. Okay, so Abe refuses to understand that. But I think he knows that people don't really think he is any of the above.

and yet Abe does means it (wants to believe) when he uses these descriptions:

retarded . . . fiscal irresponsibility . . . drownding . . .You’re all to stupid . . . you’re in denial . . . an imaginary Utopia . . . “feel good” . . . spending money . . . uneducated head’s . . . pity-party . . . pathetic. . . CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH, . . . emotions . . . control and manipulate . . . lack of comprehension . . . the most retarted . . . ignorant group . . . liberals . . . mental defects . . . Madness

Hmmmm. Emotions ?

134   simchaland   2010 Aug 16, 6:41am  

Maybe they'll create a drug for us to combat our particular form of insanity. I could suggest some names for both sides of the aisle:

Liberals:
Delibertol
Unleftique

Conservatives:
Exconservitol
Unrightussin

135   marcus   2010 Aug 16, 9:50am  

The more emotion you put behind your political beliefs, the more correct they are. Glenn Beck sheds tears on TV over how he feels about America's direction. Some teabaggers bring guns to Senator's town hall meetings or yell over them, when they try to explain policy.

Do you really think that people would feel this strongly if it wasn't because they care or if they weren't right (correct that is) ?

136   elliemae   2010 Aug 16, 1:11pm  

abeabe says

so retarded . . . fiscal irresponsibility . . . drownding . . .You’re all to stupid . . . you’re in denial . . . an imaginary Utopia . . . “feel good” . . . spending money . . . uneducated head’s . . . pity-party . . . pathetic. . . CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH, . . . emotions . . . control and manipulate . . . lack of comprehension . . . the most retarted . . . ignorant group . . . liberals . . . mental defects . . . Madness

Well, perhaps we're some of those things, but we can spell, formulate a cohesive argument, and know a pun when we see one.

Still waiting for the pun of which you speak in your title. I'm wondering if you meant "More on price stabilization buy the Fed," which would have been a pun, rather than what you actually wrote. Instead of a pun, you gave us a window into your soul.

It needs washing, btw. Your window, that is.

137   marcus   2010 Aug 16, 3:19pm  

Wrong guy. Abe didn't post this, it was AdHominem.

138   elliemae   2010 Aug 16, 3:42pm  

marcus says

Wrong guy. Abe didn’t post this, it was AdHominem.

it was a quote from nomo - by the time I went to quote, it was gone. But I do believe that it was Abe. My apologies if I was wrong, but I don't believe that I was.

139   marcus   2010 Aug 16, 11:15pm  

Not that it matters,...

elliemae says

But I do believe that it was Abe.

It was this that is not from Abe:

elliemae says

Still waiting for the pun of which you speak in your title. I’m wondering if you meant “More on price stabilization buy the Fed,”

But then maybe you were addressing Adhominem in that paragraph, in which case my bad.

140   Honest Abe   2010 Aug 17, 5:25am  

Fiscal conservatives do not support political "leaders" who are a dimwitted, sleazy, pandering, corrupt group of deficit spenders. Liberal politicians are an arrogant, self serving, self righteous group of income redistributers. They exploit others under the guise of "helping" them - except you group of idiots are too smart to understand whats going on. Haha.

You people who support this political nightmare are needy and envious of others. You suffer form spoiled child syndrome and chronic resentment. You display an entitlement, collectivist, "its not fair" mentality. You suffer from distortions in the present due to trauma in the past. You have a mistrust in the goodness of people and of life itself. This results in the use of force or manipulation by government to "make things right" or to "level the playing field".

You and your kind have an overriding neediness to "Obtain a sense of power, control and superiority over others that the Nanny State can provide. The power of the state can do to others which would be morally wrong or illegal to do on your own. To coerce them, take wealth from them and to regulate them". Dr. Lyle Rossiter

Are you people out of your minds? Short answer: YES !

141   Honest Abe   2010 Aug 17, 6:01am  

My opinion is that our military budget should be no more than 10% more than the next biggest spender, which I think is China. I don't think it should be multiple times that of France, Germany, Russia, China, etc, combined, as you stated.

PS - I read our military budget was larger than the next 16 largest military budgets combined, not "as much as the world combined"...although I'm not positive if you are right - or if what I read was right. Either way, its way too large (IMHO).

142   marcus   2010 Aug 17, 10:47am  

He can't even understand the question.

Taxes were so much higher back then. Eisenhower was a communist redistributionist, beyond any modern day liberal's wildest dreams.

143   elliemae   2010 Aug 17, 12:27pm  

hypocritical...Corporatist Oligarchy...mandatory...institutions...discretionary spending...redistribution...technologies...subsidies...entitlement mentality...manipulated tool of the aristocracy...Military Industrial Complex lobbyist...Fiscal Conservatives...

Guys - if he can't spell and formulate a sentence, do you really think he understands these words?

144   elliemae   2010 Aug 17, 12:33pm  

Seriously, abe - attacking us because we don't share your views makes you look like an idiot.

145   PeopleUnited   2010 Aug 17, 3:43pm  

elliemae says

Seriously, abe - attacking us because we don’t share your views makes you look like an idiot.

irony from the queen of the flame

Abe, you might as well ignore the people who libel you because you tell the truth, a major sport and pastime on this site. Take away the flames and the number of posts would probably drop in half. Of course, you don't help any by flaming back.

liberalism isn't a disease but pride, arrogance and self-righteous superiority is. live and let live. That is what we need more of.

146   elliemae   2010 Aug 17, 11:17pm  

AdHominem says

live and let live. That is what we need more of.

I'd like to build the world a home
and furnish it with love...

Kumbayah.

147   RayAmerica   2010 Aug 17, 11:55pm  

elliemae says

Seriously, abe - attacking us because we don’t share your views makes you look like an idiot.

Remember, abe, she's being "serioius." That should cause you to take her comments to heart and reflect on yourself. LOL !!!

148   marcus   2010 Aug 17, 11:57pm  

AdHominem says

liberalism isn’t a disease but pride, arrogance and self-righteous superiority is. live and let live. That is what we need more of.

I agree. Then we could actually have conversations, and find compromises (or the government could), just like back in the day.

I could be wrong, but I think this part:

AdHominem says

but pride, arrogance and self-righteous superiority is

will be lost on Abe.

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