patrick.net

Sure was...but seems to be priced in IMO..AHH the beauty of the markets

The figures are MUCH worse (over 100% worse, actually) than what was expected by the analysts.

I still can't stand that they insist on using the word "unexpected." If you're a clueless moron with no logical prognostication ability, isn't EVERYTHING "unexpected?"

It's a Buyers Market, sans the buyers.

Daily SPX with Trend Line from 666 low to years low at 1011.

Ther's a line in the sand if I ever saw one. And with the rally from 2009 lows it broke thru a bunch :)

thunderlips11 says

Meanwhile, NPR on the morning drive was all about how a realtor/developer with 30 employees has sold only 2 apartments in the past month in China. Chinese Utilities estimate 200M vacant apartments. That’s 1/5th of the entire population. All those factory workers at Foxconn live in Corporate Slave Barracks, not apartments; their parents are back home in a rural Yunnan or Sinkiang village. Who is going to buy all these vacant apts?

Sad but true. In some of the major cities in China OVER HALF the apartments are vacant. It's like Miami but on steroids AND growth hormone AND insulin. The housing bubbles in China, Australia and Canada are even worse than ours previously was. Don't worry, though, as THEIR bubbles are special and different and unique and based 100% on the fundamentals. Smile.

thunderlips11 says

Nice death cross appeared a little while back too, from what I can see on your chart there, Goatkick.

Yes indeed ..oddly enough the homebuliders didnt take out julys low yet on the days news..
Wondering if Cramer still thinks he called the low in housing or not?

Please don't use curse language/words on the forum. The name of the individual you just mentioned in your post above qualifies as it makes my ears burn and stomach churn.

Did you watch the show right after QE II was announced? He said BUY. His accuracy rate is almost as good as Ben's.

schmitz_kris says

Please don’t use curse language/words on the forum. The name of the individual you just mentioned in your post above qualifies as it makes my ears burn and stomach churn.
Did you watch the show right after QE II was announced? He said BUY. His accuracy rate is almost as good as Ben’s.

Sorry about that :) He's not there to make friends just to ENTERTAIN and make u money LOL!!
He's great TV if ur in College or over 65 IMO..

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/texas-july-home-sales-collapse-lowest.html

Things are getting bad in Texas. A local Realtor I know tells me that everything is wonderful, but he is trying to sell me a new house. Talking with other Realtors in the area, I sense that they are disparate.

Now all the housing market needs is a 1 to 2% interest rate hike for a sound recovery. :)

robertoaribas says

Ok, where are the usual suspect to tell me that:

1. Its only one month.

2. the bay area is different.

3. prices aren’t falling… (yet)
Inventory going up, sales down, foreclosures continuing… Prices fall from here, case closed!

The usual suspects are not interested in facts or real data and proper analysis. Give it a few months, and there will eventually be some statistic, meaningful or not, that they can crow about. They'll be back.

This is earily similar to the San Francisco BA home sales drop for July posted recently.

This is essentially the same headline as the May pending home sales down 30%. That headline is just translating into closed sales for July. May and June was not the time to sign any contract and any realtor would tell there was no interest in May and June, no surprise.

June pending sales was down 2.3% but essentially flat in the West so August closed sales will be flat vs. July in August. The most important forward indicator will be the Pending sales for July (most likely flat again based on mortgage application indicator), August and September, that will give some insights for sales in September, October and November which will determine how far home prices will fall.

No doubt about it, summer 2010 sales will be soft and home prices will be approaching March 2009 lows.

schmitz_kris says

thunderlips11 says

Meanwhile, NPR on the morning drive was all about how a realtor/developer with 30 employees has sold only 2 apartments in the past month in China. Chinese Utilities estimate 200M vacant apartments. That’s 1/5th of the entire population. All those factory workers at Foxconn live in Corporate Slave Barracks, not apartments; their parents are back home in a rural Yunnan or Sinkiang village. Who is going to buy all these vacant apts?

Sad but true. In some of the major cities in China OVER HALF the apartments are vacant. It’s like Miami but on steroids AND growth hormone AND insulin. The housing bubbles in China, Australia and Canada are even worse than ours previously was. Don’t worry, though, as THEIR bubbles are special and different and unique and based 100% on the fundamentals. Smile.

Every time I've been to Australia the last couple years people there have told me that there is a shortage of land which is why housing prices are so high and price increases will be sustainable. Yes, they were serious. Amazing.

I dont think the "lowest since 1995" is that big of a deal in the long view of things. Wow, 1995 was a bottom - Watch for spin on this one. This just shows - based on the way it is presented, that we are not in unprecedented territory and that is just a cycle after all. ( Now 'dem is just bull fightin' words )

bob2356 says

schmitz_kris says

thunderlips11 says

Meanwhile, NPR on the morning drive was all about how a realtor/developer with 30 employees has sold only 2 apartments in the past month in China. Chinese Utilities estimate 200M vacant apartments. That’s 1/5th of the entire population. All those factory workers at Foxconn live in Corporate Slave Barracks, not apartments; their parents are back home in a rural Yunnan or Sinkiang village. Who is going to buy all these vacant apts?

Sad but true. In some of the major cities in China OVER HALF the apartments are vacant. It’s like Miami but on steroids AND growth hormone AND insulin. The housing bubbles in China, Australia and Canada are even worse than ours previously was. Don’t worry, though, as THEIR bubbles are special and different and unique and based 100% on the fundamentals. Smile.

Every time I’ve been to Australia the last couple years people there have told me that there is a shortage of land which is why housing prices are so high and price increases will be sustainable. Yes, they were serious. Amazing.

Well maybe they have seen what happened when we built houses in our outback so they dont even consider it ( ? ) Maybe they are smarter than we think.

robertoaribas says

marko: we have 10 times as many foreclosures occurring today then we had in 1995. Have a good look around for polyps while you’re head is there, if you see any get them removed.

No need to get rude and crude dude - the statement that it is the lowest since 1995 does not say much, whatever the reason may be. I see you are claiming to be from Arizona. Arizona is a whole different story. There is a reason early settlers didnt settle there. It would not surprise me to see many ghost towns emerge from there. You cant even measure that to 1995

robertoaribas says

marko: we have 10 times as many foreclosures occurring today then we had in 1995. Have a good look around for polyps while you’re head is there, if you see any get them removed.

I read a news clip from Business Week where back in early 90s the write down on loans for wells fargo alone were a pretty dinky $150-200M... small fries compared to the multi billions todays. Prices did get ahead of incomes back then, but nothing like in more recent years.
Hammer Time!

roberto,
I will say it. "The Bay Area is different." You seem to think so too because you are spending a lot of your time posting/commenting thinking about it.

sybrib says

roberto,

I will say it. “The Bay Area is different.” You seem to think so too because you are spending a lot of your time posting/commenting thinking about it.

Time will tell sybrib, time will tell.......................

roberto,
not everyone here is a realtwhore. There's a lot of workaday folks here, and many of them/us did not buy into the Coolaid and did not really consider the phoney skyrocketed "equity" as a reality. All over the region, and especially in The Fortress, where most homes just sit un-traded for years and years and years, keep the prop-13 basis.
The places getting hammered are not really part of the Bay Area, not really. There's not much difference between a Bay Arean who moved to Phoenix to buy a bigger house and the Bay Arean who moved to Tracy or Brentwood or Fairfield to do it.

marko says

I dont think the “lowest since 1995″ is that big of a deal in the long view of things.

The July drop was a RECORD-BREAKER.

roberto,

You can define the region of Bay Area whatever you want.

I always figured it was the counties that border the San Francisco Bay, which means it does not include Santa Cruz County.

If it makes you feel better, you can include Phoenix as a lower cost part of the Bay Area.

marko says

There is a reason early settlers didnt settle there.

Funny stuff. I really like that quip........I'm going to use it from now on because it says it all about that area. I have never cared for Phoenix myself or other HOT, sandy desert areas. The last time I was there was about 5 years ago visiting friends and they wanted us to move there because of the low cost of housing. I know there are people that love AZ, but the state would have to pay me to live there. When folks bring up Phoenix for one reason or another I tell them that when I was there 5 years ago I didn't leave anything there so there is no reason to go back.

Its a market with a 4 - 6 year inventory backlog at what is going to become normal sales rate IE: all part of the "New Normal" sales pace (including the 'shadow AKA Held-back market.) I am thinking that the NEW NORMAL is a GDP that will bounce around +1 1/2% 2% and minus 1-2%. I know these are radical and highly debated. But what do you think?

I dunno about Phoenix prices and don't have an opinion about the prices there in the short term. In the long term its difficult to see how they can sustain 10 million people without a sustainable water supply.

Whole southern corner of the West/mid-West has that (water) problem.

Too many goddamn people out there but that is where the jobs/weather are so whatyagonnado?

tts says

Whole southern corner of the West/mid-West has that (water) problem.
Too many goddamn people out there but that is where the jobs/weather are so whatyagonnado?

Waddagonnado? - Rent.

robertoaribas says

Are you being intellectually dishonest, or are you just a simpleton

That's a lot of the problem. I read some of these posts and think, "Damn it, my 11-year old neice has better grammar and spelling than this dolt!" This same individual then mutters something about an 800K loan he/she took out, and I just shiver. Amazing, isn't it, that a bank will give a fool who doesn't know the difference between "your" and "you're" a loan for nearly a million dollars. My grandfather, who went to a one-room schoolhouse for all of 8 grades, writes and communicates far better.

We have become a nation of moronic boobs.

3 years ago my family moved in with me. 2 houses and 1 apt collapsed into a single home. I was ahead of the curve, and friends looked at me like I was crazy to WANT to be with my family. It was seen as an excuse because my parents were broke (they're not) or I needed help with the mortgage (I could've paid cash for the house). Now I'm hearing about friends and family doing the same thing as us, as the kids don't even bother trying to get their own place as the new reality is move back in and save. My Aunt+Uncle had a beach house in FL, one in NH, and an in-law with their daughter. Two beach houses sold (not under duress) and now they rent a place for cheap for 1 month in FL, one month in NH, and travel. My other aunt moved in with her daughter to watch her kids and retire 3 years early.

It isn't just forclosure and loss of jobs. People are diggin in, because no one believes the stock market is going to save them. Its a massive shift in the way we LIVE, just like the way $4.00 gas changed the way we drove/bought cars. BANG! 5 years from now we're going to see a multi-ethnic version of the Waltons on TV, but this time it will be in the suburbs and funny.

robertoaribas says

However, existing homes, already exist see? so when demand drops off, they sit there, and later prices drop.
Are you being intellectually dishonest, or are you just a simpleton?

Well--why don't you do a little legwork and post a graph that proves your theory then?

Add to this new home sales drop of 12.4%. Perfect recipe for price rebounding.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Instant-View-New-home-sales-rb-1932018602.html;_ylt=AoHhpg4IKvg.3AGiww1J2cm7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1N2ZkcnZxBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNuZXdob21lc2FsZXM-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

robertoaribas says

Do you need a graph to show the sun rises in the east?

OK smart ass. Do you think the relation between sales price and sales/mo. is as well established as the rotation of the earth?

Just because you think something doesn't mean it's true. I almost guarantee that there are many things that seem logical in your head but turn out to be completely wrong. Such as low interest rates lead to higher home prices. Seems logical, right? Unfortunately it turns out to not be true historically.

If you want to make a point, it's always best to have data to show. Otherwise skeptical people such as myself will dismiss it.

schmitz_kris says

marko says

I dont think the “lowest since 1995″ is that big of a deal in the long view of things.

The July drop was a RECORD-BREAKER.

Yes , now today's news does say it was record-breaking and I will agree that is much more significant of a statement as it points to being unprececedented rather than yesterday's news which says it was as low as 1995. Of course the news has been changing on a daily basis - the weather reports are the only reliable news items

Potter's not selling he's buying...

robertoaribas says

Yeah, I just drove through the bayarea: Narrow dilapidated freeways, crowded as hell, and crappy looking homes and buildings. Enjoy. Now I see why you pay a dollar more for a gallon of gas, and more than my mortgage on property taxes!
The redwoods? nice. California north of the bay area? very nice looking, Heck Oregon coast looks much nicer, I’d take it over the bay area too!
When I left Berkeley, I didn’t leave anything there either, so I’m not going back.
Now, if your reasoning is that “phoenix home prices are falling because its hot there”… or some such, well, whatever… 27% drop in sales nationwide, doesn’t seem to be discriminating against any one area these days… But with your prices, the upcoming slide in price will be much more painful. Hard to lose too much if you buy in Phoenix, and your mortgage with taxes and insurance is only 900 a month…

when you were in the Bay Area had they built huge housing tracts out in places like Lathrop or El Grove yet ? Those areas have crashed big time.That is not the Bay Area like the news media says. but they can easily include those pricedrops in the bay area median which does skew the whole picture. As far as the Bay Area, sure there is downside but the nicer areas near the employment areas are still not going to crash as hard as the crappy areas. The condo market will probably crash thruout the Bay Area - at least in the East Bay they continue to build Condos during all this mess. Entire condo projects are heading for auction soon since they cant sell them via FHA since FHA only allows loans if more than half the condos are owner-occupied. Now if we consider the condo market as part of our median calcs then we will definately have lower median sales prices hitting the news soon.

robertoaribas says

Examining a contrary interpretation of events, to test a hypothesis makes sense. Sticking your head up your tail and claiming all data doesn’t matter doesn’t make sense.

Agreed. Not sure who is doing that... Seems to me that most people here tend to highlight data that agrees with their view of the world and discount data that doesn't.

And then call people who disagree with them idiots.

robertoaribas says

taputu, you seize on the miniscule each time, rather than ever sticking to a point. Its like talking with a little child who can’t think.

Really? You completely misrepresented my point. Of course I know that the general economy-specifically wage inflation--has a much greater impact on house prices than interest rates. That was my point. Many, many posters here continue to write that lower interest rates will lead to higher prices when history has shown that not to be the case.
You then posted that I thought higher interest rates lead to higher prices. How is that miniscule? That is just a complete lie.

Tenouncetrout says

It’s a Buyers Market, sans the buyers.

NOT! Its a Collapsing Market.

While I am at it, time to pre-empt a faulty argument that will likely pop-up soon. Again it is about time lag.

This is from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/more-negative-news-flow-coming.html

CR has the following to say about time-lag.

First, as I noted in the existing home inventory post, the months-of-supply will probably stay in double digits for some time and anything over 7 or 8 months of supply will put downward pressure on house prices. However it will take some time for reported house prices to start declining. The Case-Shiller house price index for June will be reported next week (really a 3 month average of April, May and June). And prices probably didn't start falling until July. The July numbers will not be reported until the end of September, and that will be a 3 month average of May, June and July. So it might take until the end of October to see the price declines in the Case-Shiller indexes.