patrick.net

"Proposition 13 allows for an upward adjustment in the base assessment value each year for inflation, however it caps this annual adjustment at 2% of base value."

HelloKitty, yes, the next sentence clarifies it. The base amount is set at the 75-76 level "for ever" but is adjusted upwards a maximum of 2% per year. There's no freeze for the older transactions, it was passed in 78 and rolled all the prices back to the 76 level. You're correct in principle, if there are no transfers or significant rennovations the base assessment is the 76 value plus a max of 2% per year.

Oh... "Suckers"!

Thanks SP. (Also notice they didn't even leave in a "fudge factor" to cover the commish)

There's one other angle that gets left out of the P13 debate. property tax is not 1% of the assessed value. P13 allows additional taxes, like school bonds, to be added in addition to the 1%. Here in San Diego there is another 10th of a percent that was set to expire but was added on for another 30 years with prop MM. The tax bills are closer to 1.2% of the assessed + 2% annually adjusted values. Voters can always add to the tax rate, but it requires what is called a super majority which is an election where 2/3rds have to vote in favor. The logic for that is that it wouldn't be fair to have a simple majority vote for the increase when not everyone would be paying it directly. I use the word directly because I've said before that owners occupying their homes pay directly and renters pay indirectly since the tax is built into the price of the monthly rent.

In Anaheim, for example, the Walt Disney Co. pays on average 5 cents a square foot for some of the Disneyland property it has owned since the 1950s. By contrast, a person who just bought a home at the median Orange County price of $428,000 pays $1.71 a square foot in property taxes.

This is the prime example of how Prop 13 was "overbroad" to use some lawyer speak....

Established corporate giants such as Lockheed, HP, Intel, Disney, Warner Bros., Gallo Vineyards, and their brethern pay pennies on the dollar for property taxes when compared to new innovative companies. This is a huge disincentive for start-ups contemplating doing business in California. It may be easier to get VC funding in Silicon Valley, but the flipside is that you are going to be taxed at a higher rate. A start-up competing with, say, Apple Computer or HP will pay an order of magnitude greater property tax.

DinOR Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 7:55 am
"OT but the IRS has now made arrangements for those wanting to deposit their “rebate” directly into their IRA! Use IRS Form 8888 (must be REALLY lucky) or begin on line 73 (Form 1040) to have it deposited directly."

God dammit this tax code is a cluster f-ck. That's so not right, here I am having to withdraw excess contributions because of penalties because up until this minute you could only deposit "earned income" into an IRA. I couldn't sleep last night because on top of that nonsense the Feds without any notice "corrected" my taxes for 2006 by adding back in my state refund (normally right) but because I had AMT in 2005 which replaced the normal itemized deductions my tax preparer correctly did not add it back in. Yesterday I was on the phone with the state going "How in the world can you have a different figure here when I filed electronically and you are telling me up and down that there were no changes made?" Then come to find out they made changes :(

The OFHEO House Price Index is out for 4Q 2007:

http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/4q07hpi.pdf

One nugget is that starting in March, they are going to release monthly reports in addition to quarterly reports.

Since this is a DennisN thread with Idaho based comments...

I am beginning to think Boise, Idaho is more of a fortress than the Bay area, since it's 5 year appreciation (65%) blew away the Bay area (46%), yet it is still appreciating over the past year (1.74%) while the Bay area has declined (-0.86%).

* Definitely *not* an invite for specuvestors. Or maybe it is. ;)

Dennis, I almost buy into that argument. I've been wanting to put together a business plan for an amusement park in Anaheim but it just isn't feasible because I can't compete with Disneyland's property tax rate.....kidding.
Actually the property values today compared to then would be the major stumbling block but I agree with you that one could make the argument that the tax rate does favor one business over another and creates an unreasoanble barrier to entry.

And speaking of haircuts, anyone see the action on GOOG today?

What happened?

MCM,

Check this sidebar feature from a posting on the main Patrick news page today. http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-MORTGAGE0807.html Go to the median price tab. You will see that the three "fortress" cities in the US apparently are Seattle, Boise, and Salt Lake City.

Getting votes to repeal Prop 13 is trivial if someone has the energy to do the obvious thing:

Publish all property taxes by address in an easy to search way.

Once recent buyers see how much they're being screwed by their older neighbors, Prop 13 will end in a hurry.

Interesting thought Patrick. Income tax amounts are confidential. However I believe property taxes are not. Places like Propertyshark.com already publish the tax basis for property tax. It would be simple to just multiply in the 1% + special assessments to yield the actual property tax bill.

MCM,

Point taken. Even at today's prices though I believe that only drives the median in Boise slightly above 200k. Lord, what were homes in ID selling for in 2001?

It just doesn't make sense - a day of reckoning has to come:

Boise - median income ~58k - median house price ~212k = 3.7 times median income.

SLC - median income ~60k - median house price ~220k = 3.7 times median income.

Seattle - median income ~71k - median house price ~425k = 5.9 times median income.

Middle class debt slave cannot continue to roll debt from one loan to another and increase total debt load indefinitely.

Malcom,

It might make sense for you to have some sort of consulting, side-job gig to show "some" earned income. I agree it's a mess and outside of Patrick.net regulars I doubt a lot of Americans will take advantage of any sort of IRA Direct Deposit program?

MCM,

Hence the term: Peak Debt

(we're there!)

Once recent buyers see how much they’re being screwed by their older neighbors, Prop 13 will end in a hurry.

Prop 13 is just a small part of the generation warfare.

Based on the demographics, it is a war Gen-Xers can't win. We can only find a way to join them.

Part of the problem with that WSJ map is it compares all prices to an arbitrary "peak in Q4 2005" value. That may have been the peak in many places but the peak here in Boise came about a year later, which skews the figures. Boise prices are now soft and somewhat down over Q2 2007, but you would miss this fact from the WSJ map. The out-of-state speculators have all fled, leaving an over-supply of new houses.

DinOR Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 10:01 am
"Malcom,
It might make sense for you to have some sort of consulting, side-job gig to show “some” earned income. I agree it’s a mess and outside of Patrick.net regulars I doubt a lot of Americans will take advantage of any sort of IRA Direct Deposit program?"

Good advice, and I've actually done a small test for that. I put a Criaigslist ad out advertising MBA business coach for startups. I actually got a client. She is dirt poor but onto something in my opinion so I've invested quite a bit of time. I helped her out last week and actually did give her a small bill. I would love to just find some fun part time job, or something really serious full time to devote my life to. Otherwise I'm just sitting back waiting for prices to make sense and then I'm going to do environmental rehabs on homes including solar installations. It seems no one can afford to pay cash for solar and when you have to finance it, it doesn't make sense so I'm going to buy houses, install solar and either resell them or rent them out for eventual resale.

And speaking of haircuts, anyone see the action on GOOG today?

What happened?

Maybe they read this piece:

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/2/2008/2/google_disaster__comscore_reports_awful_january

Or maybe this one:

"Google Very Exposed to US Recession--Expert"

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/2/google_very_exposed_to_us_recession__expert

Administrator Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 9:40 am
"Getting votes to repeal Prop 13 is trivial if someone has the energy to do the obvious thing:
Publish all property taxes by address in an easy to search way.
Once recent buyers see how much they’re being screwed by their older neighbors, Prop 13 will end in a hurry."

Sorry to disagree, once you're in you don't worry about the ones before you, you feel very stable knowing that is one cost that is somewhat contained. In my case it just went hand in hand knowing I had paid 113K for my first house where my neighbor had paid something like $25K for the same house in the 50s. People are more wowed by the price difference over the disparity in property taxes.

DennisN,

I noticed that "line in the sand" as well. Given it's a national article, 4th qtr. 2005 probably makes the most sense. As far as PDX is concerned you could almost put that out to 1st qtr. 2007?

All and all Boise probably has a lot less to worry about than Bend.

Malcom,

My wife and I pretty much agreed that over the next few years she'll likely retire (at around 50) but it is my lot in life to continue working. I feel one of the reasons that's important is to keep your contacts current.

A lot of guys go into retirement/semi and really fall of the radar. Everyone assumes you're content and out of the loop. They don't include you in their plans and quickly fill your place in line. When they try to re-engage they find it frustrating. So for me it's worth it to "soldier on". IMHO

“Google Very Exposed to US Recession–Expert”

Well, I don't invest in "growth" companies.

Let's focus on food and blue gold :)

Is it too late to short GOOG?

"blue gold"

Water?

Yes. H2O. Amazing substance.

I was reading that at one time (back in the day) Walker Lake (south of Reno) covered much of the Western U.S. Better get the boat in before it's gone altogether!

You've got me pegged. That happened to me. I've done well but at a cost to a career. I didn't think I wanted one but now I feel somewhat useless. Funny thing is, I look around and people who stuck with it seem to be falling out of their career paths as well. In my neighborhood there are tons of men who seem to stay home all the time with their wives out working in offices. It is such a dynamic marketplace that particular skills are getting obsoleted making learning them a bit of a waste. I don't know what to do, I can easily find "a job" but I'm trying to do something meaningful. It is amazing how valuable the skillset I have now would have been just 5 years ago but now anyone can make a website, everyone can be a middle manager, and there are very few interesting manufacturing companies close by that aren't just giant corporate headquarters. I've got a resume in with www.aptera.com they build that car that I'm so excited to buy. They are in Carlsbad, and I am hoping maybe I can get in there. I would do just about any job they needed me for, short of answering the phone :)
I don't even mind physical work, I like building and assembling things.

Water is more golden then oil.

I think the best China play is food; the best energy play is water.

Forget technology.

Not investment advice.

And if you love technology, look into water technology.

Not investment advice.

It's funny when people ask me, what's the minimum I would work for and I say $0. Then they say, huh? I reply that my salary requirement depends on the kind of job, company, ...etc. I would be an astronaut for free, but a production planner for a company making silk flowers I want $60K per year plus benefits.

Hell Peter, let's just take some tap water, run it through a filter, bottle it, add a touch of sugar, throw a label on it, and fill the landfills with more plastic bottles. We'll make millions.

Forget the filter, my water will be promoted as having extra calcium for stronger bones.

Lord, what were homes in ID selling for in 2001?

Exactly what they should have been selling for - less than 2.5 to 3 times median incomes.

In 2001, Idaho median income was ~38k, so median house price would have been ~114k.

So now median income has went up by 20k, but median house price has went up about 100k. Factor in inflation, and there really is no way logically that Joe median middle class can actually afford a house.

and fill the landfills with more plastic bottles

Only if we get to build homes on the landfills. :)

But seriously, access to fresh water will be a hot topic in the near future. I will not be surprised if major wars are fought over blue gold.

Malcom,

I don't feel it's a matter of having anyone "pegged" it just seems the natural order of things these days. Employment doesn't seem to last until either we have the desire (or assets) to transition into full retirement.

I got started on the notion of an "encore career" after reading about it perhaps a year back. In fact, I've seen so much of this just enabling others to preserve assets and gracefully move on to the next phase will become a specialty in itself.

I would be an astronaut for free, but a production planner for a company making silk flowers I want $60K per year plus benefits.

I will NOT be an astronaut for any price. But I will consider being a Michelin food taster for free. :)

I wouldn't mind an encore career myself. The reason I am glad to be out of the "Silicon Valley" job market is that there you get a talking from the boss as a "slacker" if you punch less than 50 hours a week.