patrick.net

MCM,

Check this sidebar feature from a posting on the main Patrick news page today. http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-MORTGAGE0807.html Go to the median price tab. You will see that the three "fortress" cities in the US apparently are Seattle, Boise, and Salt Lake City.

Getting votes to repeal Prop 13 is trivial if someone has the energy to do the obvious thing:

Publish all property taxes by address in an easy to search way.

Once recent buyers see how much they're being screwed by their older neighbors, Prop 13 will end in a hurry.

Interesting thought Patrick. Income tax amounts are confidential. However I believe property taxes are not. Places like Propertyshark.com already publish the tax basis for property tax. It would be simple to just multiply in the 1% + special assessments to yield the actual property tax bill.

MCM,

Point taken. Even at today's prices though I believe that only drives the median in Boise slightly above 200k. Lord, what were homes in ID selling for in 2001?

It just doesn't make sense - a day of reckoning has to come:

Boise - median income ~58k - median house price ~212k = 3.7 times median income.

SLC - median income ~60k - median house price ~220k = 3.7 times median income.

Seattle - median income ~71k - median house price ~425k = 5.9 times median income.

Middle class debt slave cannot continue to roll debt from one loan to another and increase total debt load indefinitely.

Malcom,

It might make sense for you to have some sort of consulting, side-job gig to show "some" earned income. I agree it's a mess and outside of Patrick.net regulars I doubt a lot of Americans will take advantage of any sort of IRA Direct Deposit program?

MCM,

Hence the term: Peak Debt

(we're there!)

Once recent buyers see how much they’re being screwed by their older neighbors, Prop 13 will end in a hurry.

Prop 13 is just a small part of the generation warfare.

Based on the demographics, it is a war Gen-Xers can't win. We can only find a way to join them.

Part of the problem with that WSJ map is it compares all prices to an arbitrary "peak in Q4 2005" value. That may have been the peak in many places but the peak here in Boise came about a year later, which skews the figures. Boise prices are now soft and somewhat down over Q2 2007, but you would miss this fact from the WSJ map. The out-of-state speculators have all fled, leaving an over-supply of new houses.

DinOR Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 10:01 am
"Malcom,
It might make sense for you to have some sort of consulting, side-job gig to show “some” earned income. I agree it’s a mess and outside of Patrick.net regulars I doubt a lot of Americans will take advantage of any sort of IRA Direct Deposit program?"

Good advice, and I've actually done a small test for that. I put a Criaigslist ad out advertising MBA business coach for startups. I actually got a client. She is dirt poor but onto something in my opinion so I've invested quite a bit of time. I helped her out last week and actually did give her a small bill. I would love to just find some fun part time job, or something really serious full time to devote my life to. Otherwise I'm just sitting back waiting for prices to make sense and then I'm going to do environmental rehabs on homes including solar installations. It seems no one can afford to pay cash for solar and when you have to finance it, it doesn't make sense so I'm going to buy houses, install solar and either resell them or rent them out for eventual resale.

And speaking of haircuts, anyone see the action on GOOG today?

What happened?

Maybe they read this piece:

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/2/2008/2/google_disaster__comscore_reports_awful_january

Or maybe this one:

"Google Very Exposed to US Recession--Expert"

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/2/google_very_exposed_to_us_recession__expert

Administrator Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 9:40 am
"Getting votes to repeal Prop 13 is trivial if someone has the energy to do the obvious thing:
Publish all property taxes by address in an easy to search way.
Once recent buyers see how much they’re being screwed by their older neighbors, Prop 13 will end in a hurry."

Sorry to disagree, once you're in you don't worry about the ones before you, you feel very stable knowing that is one cost that is somewhat contained. In my case it just went hand in hand knowing I had paid 113K for my first house where my neighbor had paid something like $25K for the same house in the 50s. People are more wowed by the price difference over the disparity in property taxes.

DennisN,

I noticed that "line in the sand" as well. Given it's a national article, 4th qtr. 2005 probably makes the most sense. As far as PDX is concerned you could almost put that out to 1st qtr. 2007?

All and all Boise probably has a lot less to worry about than Bend.

Malcom,

My wife and I pretty much agreed that over the next few years she'll likely retire (at around 50) but it is my lot in life to continue working. I feel one of the reasons that's important is to keep your contacts current.

A lot of guys go into retirement/semi and really fall of the radar. Everyone assumes you're content and out of the loop. They don't include you in their plans and quickly fill your place in line. When they try to re-engage they find it frustrating. So for me it's worth it to "soldier on". IMHO

“Google Very Exposed to US Recession–Expert”

Well, I don't invest in "growth" companies.

Let's focus on food and blue gold :)

Is it too late to short GOOG?

"blue gold"

Water?

Yes. H2O. Amazing substance.

I was reading that at one time (back in the day) Walker Lake (south of Reno) covered much of the Western U.S. Better get the boat in before it's gone altogether!

You've got me pegged. That happened to me. I've done well but at a cost to a career. I didn't think I wanted one but now I feel somewhat useless. Funny thing is, I look around and people who stuck with it seem to be falling out of their career paths as well. In my neighborhood there are tons of men who seem to stay home all the time with their wives out working in offices. It is such a dynamic marketplace that particular skills are getting obsoleted making learning them a bit of a waste. I don't know what to do, I can easily find "a job" but I'm trying to do something meaningful. It is amazing how valuable the skillset I have now would have been just 5 years ago but now anyone can make a website, everyone can be a middle manager, and there are very few interesting manufacturing companies close by that aren't just giant corporate headquarters. I've got a resume in with www.aptera.com they build that car that I'm so excited to buy. They are in Carlsbad, and I am hoping maybe I can get in there. I would do just about any job they needed me for, short of answering the phone :)
I don't even mind physical work, I like building and assembling things.

Water is more golden then oil.

I think the best China play is food; the best energy play is water.

Forget technology.

Not investment advice.

And if you love technology, look into water technology.

Not investment advice.

It's funny when people ask me, what's the minimum I would work for and I say $0. Then they say, huh? I reply that my salary requirement depends on the kind of job, company, ...etc. I would be an astronaut for free, but a production planner for a company making silk flowers I want $60K per year plus benefits.

Hell Peter, let's just take some tap water, run it through a filter, bottle it, add a touch of sugar, throw a label on it, and fill the landfills with more plastic bottles. We'll make millions.

Forget the filter, my water will be promoted as having extra calcium for stronger bones.

Lord, what were homes in ID selling for in 2001?

Exactly what they should have been selling for - less than 2.5 to 3 times median incomes.

In 2001, Idaho median income was ~38k, so median house price would have been ~114k.

So now median income has went up by 20k, but median house price has went up about 100k. Factor in inflation, and there really is no way logically that Joe median middle class can actually afford a house.

and fill the landfills with more plastic bottles

Only if we get to build homes on the landfills. :)

But seriously, access to fresh water will be a hot topic in the near future. I will not be surprised if major wars are fought over blue gold.

Malcom,

I don't feel it's a matter of having anyone "pegged" it just seems the natural order of things these days. Employment doesn't seem to last until either we have the desire (or assets) to transition into full retirement.

I got started on the notion of an "encore career" after reading about it perhaps a year back. In fact, I've seen so much of this just enabling others to preserve assets and gracefully move on to the next phase will become a specialty in itself.

I would be an astronaut for free, but a production planner for a company making silk flowers I want $60K per year plus benefits.

I will NOT be an astronaut for any price. But I will consider being a Michelin food taster for free. :)

I wouldn't mind an encore career myself. The reason I am glad to be out of the "Silicon Valley" job market is that there you get a talking from the boss as a "slacker" if you punch less than 50 hours a week.

Oh and not that it's too late by any means it's just been my experience that the transition goes much smoother when you script your "encore" while still very much an active member of the workforce.

People are funny that way. If you're still shoulder to shoulder in the trenches w/ them and share that you're thinking about bailing and working on an idea (you'll get all the support in the world)

Mention the very same idea the Monday after your leaving and the response is.... "lucky you"....

The reason I am glad to be out of the “Silicon Valley” job market is that there you get a talking from the boss as a “slacker” if you punch less than 50 hours a week.

Really? I never "punched" more than 40 hours a week.

Right, 50 hrs. (not counting the commute!)

Here's what I've found:

Most guys that either get pink-slipped or burnt-out or are looking for a change (and don't have adequate resources) burn through their roll-overs just keeping up appearances. I think there's study after study that show many 401k's go into funding current lifestyle after a lay-off.

What I do is wake people TFU and tell them to SCREW "appearances". Up until now that's been difficult (especially w/ "MEW Dads") but now people are listening.

Let’s focus on food and blue gold

These thoughts were very much in my mind when I decided where in the US to bail out of Silicon Valley. The southwest is going to have a long slow period of troubles due to lack of water. This includes LA, Lost Wages, Phoenix, and many other currently overpopulated places. I decided upon Idaho for three reasons: libertarian politics, major producer of food of all kinds, and lots of water from the Snake and other rivers.

This includes LA, Lost Wages, Phoenix, and many other currently overpopulated places.

I repeat my laugh at Phoenix-area speculators. :lol:

I think everyone in the workforce should firstly (work like you could be fired any minute) that way you'll always have a job, and secondly work off the assumption that you WILL ultimately be let go.

That way there's no tears or surprises. Could we as a country actually be reverting back to the gentleman farmer? Seems everyone I know has their own vineyard, B&B, lodge/guide service (or in my particular instance) shows them how to make that happen.

OR.... you can blow your rollover making sure you maintain that enviable freakin' FICO score!!??

My personal SWOT

Strengths:
Strong FICO score
Clean background
MBA
Real experience
Long time resident
Good skillset
Thanks to buying right and Prop 13 I can undercut on salary if needed.

Weaknesses:
No real work for over a year
Last job was only for 6 months, prior to that longer periods of stable employment
Currently not working (inline with what you say, when you are working everyone wants you. Kind of like how girls are attracted to commited men, they know they're OK)

Opportunities:
Don't seem to quite line up with my goals

Threats:
Biggest threat to me is that I feel like I am a perishable commodity.
Being idle careerwise has definitely hurt me.

The bad thing in my case is that my strengths would normally put me ahead of others but EEO laws don't allow employers to consider strong credit, geography, youth, or criminal background as characteristics in selection because they favor whites and amount to indirect discrimination. So basically some schmuk with a DUI, lousey credit, who just arrived here but had a decent job somewhere less competitive than here seems to get by me. If they are female and a minority they will usually get picked over me.