patrick.net

late 1990's

1999

I'll guess 2013 - 2014, and that prices are back to 2000 level.

But I hope to buy before then.

marcus says

History shows that during the 70s when the cost of many consumer items doubled, and inflation was very high, housing was barely going up because of increasing interest rates. Housing was pretty flat during this time

Only in inflation adjusted terms. The actual price of a house went up significantly...

Troy says

Clearly we’re at some sort of equilibrium now as prices are at 2003 levels.

??

Looking at Troy's chart above. Why is that clear ? I thought it was clear that extreme measures by the government stopped the free fall. (ie. tax credits and support of mortgage market (availability of credit and purchases keeping rates lower than they otherwise would be).

So that's equilibrium, and it will take terrible news to take things lower. Really ?

I would say, maybe we are just past the inflection point. And the rate of decrease going forward will be nothing like it was in 2007 to 2009.

marcus says

Yes, I guess in some regions, but then not in others. But you are right. Although there were a couple 3 to 5 year periods of nice downswings (flat to decreasing in real terms).

I just meant that the chart you posted was in real prices (inflation adjusted). So for the US in general, prices rose significantly in the 70s.

tatupu70 says

I just meant

I understood what you meant, and I said you were right.

My best guess of the next several years. (just a worthless guess).

See Troy's chart above.

marcus says

tatupu70 says

I just meant

I understood what you meant, and I said you were right.

ok--my apologies

marcus says

So that’s equilibrium, and it will take terrible news to take things lower. Really ?

I would say, maybe we are just past the inflection point. And the rate of decrease going forward will be nothing like it was in 2007 to 2009

I generally agree with your future estimate above.

Unknowns are how many QEs the Fed has in them. QE2 is getting demagogued all to hell and it hasn't even started yet.

But we are by any means out of the woods yet. No jobs, no inflation, no recovery.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS/

and

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART

and

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USGOVT

and

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USEHS

are pretty ugly in their confluence. If the Republicans start walking their talk, they're going to want spending cuts -- which have to hit health and education since military spending is holy -- when they take over next year.

Hello 1937.

Or if that was just their usual BS and they just want tax cuts, then the debt pileup is going to be interesting. China has already stopped buying treasuries I guess.

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Hello $10 gas and $5 hamburger.