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Hedging against rapid market corrections (upward) in housing
2010 Nov 22, 1:40pm 5,109 views 16 comments
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roberto - the real estate market traditionally was a 25 year cycle and i would go way out on a limb and state that just maybe we hit a top in 2007.....so i wouldnt worry about home prices going up any time soon.
..and as far as worrying about your money in the bank...i would be more worried about 'getting that money out of the bank' seeing as the FDIC failed in 2008.........
Roberto
Sorry I don't see how to email you??
Back from the holiday so sorry to bump this up again. Maybe I am noting seasonal lack of new listings coming to market. How solid are these shadow inventory stats they throw around. I am curious if there is a way of seeing houses that have been foreclosed but have not yet resold by zip code.
thanks
elliemae
2010 Nov 28, 5:00am
I wouldn't buy yet. If RE goes down (as forecasts indicate), you'll lose $ - and if you buy a place that you can afford now, something nicer will come up for the same price or less, and you'll find yourself wishing that you'd waited.
In the end, we’ll all be ripping up floor boards to burn to keep from freezing and to beat starving cannibal anarchists to death. Plant potatoes, arm yourselves, spouses and kids and learn how to kill with your hands and feet for the moment when you and yours run out of ammo.
On the other hand, you should buy a place with wooden floors (oak burns slower) and you can plant potatoes in the crawl space underneath. Don't forget to buy guns in case you can't kill with your hands & feet. And save a bit of money to buy a tinfoil hat and use your seatbelt so that the aliens can't suck you out the windows into their ship.
Cvoc13
2010 Nov 28, 10:51am
I think the costs of building them will come way way down, as labor costs come down with wages under-pressure, and land costs and all related costs that you are basing COST on now will all come down. Why do others pre existing homes have to come up? Why not as I am suggesting costs coming down.
Interest rates must be higher by 2012 but I hope to pay cash (125k or so) or maybe buy a bigger home and finance only 25-50% of the house. Essentially I'm looking for a 3/2 plus den in the 2000-2400 sqft range. From what I have seen properties in the mid to high 100s range seem to languish on the mls, despite being priced well below peak values.
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Hello
I am planning to buy a house in Phoenix in summer 2012 when I return to the city. I fear the local market is way undervalued with houses selling for below building cost and that these deals may be gone come summer 2012. I was curious if there was a way to invest in specific city Case-Shiller indexes (in this case Phoenix) as a hedge against a rapid turnaround. The thought is that if the market declines the value of that index declines and my investment values declines in like fashion. To the contrary, if the market rebounds 20% by 2012 I am protected somewhat from this.
Given how local real estate markets are I doubt an general inflation tracking index would work. I also need to maintain liquidity since theoretically I'd be pulling all of this money out to buy the house. Stocks and commodities are just too volatile and risky, money markets/CDs too worthless, yet I fear inflation will eat away at the money just sitting in an account.
Thanks in advance.
#housing