patrick.net

but but but I thought the bottom was 2009 ?

"Under the spreading chestnut tree I sold you and you sold me:
There lie they, and here lie we
Under the spreading chestnut tree."

More specifically...."The number of Bay Area homeowners who entered the first stage of foreclosure in January spiked by almost 40 percent from a year ago as banks once again gear up the foreclosure machine after hitting the pause button."

However...."In the Bay Area, 1,364 foreclosed homes were taken back by banks last month, a 21.5 percent increase from December, but a 12.1 percent decline from a year ago."

This does not mean prices will decline another 40%... prices look to be slowly declining but possibly still close to the last bottom. We shall see what happens

It's a shame the article provides no information about Santa Clara County and lumps San Mateo County in with Alameda and Contra Costa.

Maybe this is why they left off specifics:
http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/ca/santa+clara+county-trend.html
http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/ca/san+mateo+county-trend.html

Houses in foreclosure:
Cupertino: 1 in 3500
Sunnyvale: 1 in 900
Saratoga: 1 in 900
MV: 1 in 1200
Los Altos: 1 in 2700
PA: 1 in 750

Yes F&F are going to make less loans. I think we all know that means FHA will make exactly that many more loans.....and FHA is the subprime lender with weaker standards.

bubblesitter says

but but but I thought the bottom was 2009 ?

Hey that's my line!

yep that would line up with my SF /Bay area friends finally starting to verbally poop themselves this month.

antman says

However….”In the Bay Area, 1,364 foreclosed homes were taken back by banks last month, a 21.5 percent increase from December, but a 12.1 percent decline from a year ago.”
This does not mean prices will decline another 40%… prices look to be slowly declining but possibly still close to the last bottom. We shall see what happens

Wonder how many were bought not that long ago, after the first leg of the price declined happened ? Not the homes that were purchased back in 2002 to 2006

pkowen says

bubblesitter says

but but but I thought the bottom was 2009 ?

Hey that’s my line!

That's right. I liked it so I posted it.

We still have a long way to go... looking ONLY at post 2000 graph doesnt disclose the entire situation in the housing market. If we do go flat from here, it would be the first time prices and incomes become permanently disconnected. That is not sustainable in the long run.

Troy, how dare you inject foreign data into this thread? You can't possibly know what is really going on here. See, the Bay Area is the most special place ever. And the "fortress," aka the True Bay Areaâ„¢, is the most specialest place ever anywhere on Earth. Prices never really go down here. Everyone wants to live here. If you claim you don't, you are just in denial. That means that demand is always highest here and prices go up forever. They aren't making any more land. Silicon Valley is the world's most innovative area in the world and never ever has any decline in economic activity so everyone there makes over $100,000 per year minimum guaranteed. Therefore the fortress is especially immune to any macro-economic forces. If you don't buy now you'll be priced out forever. Listen to the duck. He'll tell you all you need to know.

well, the fortress is in fact different, partially if not largely thanks to the stupendous successes of goog and aapl.

Truth be told, I'd rather live in Los Altos than Bellingham, but damn if that place is not a fortress.

Duck, that's a great hatchet job of editing my post which is only somewhat tongue in cheek. Really take a look at that last graph that you posted and look past the peak. What do you see? Draw a line from the peak to the end of the graph averaging data points after the peak and you get (clutch the pearls and gasp) a decline? Say it ain't so, Ducky.

Nice commentary Dunross - very creative :)

Yes, in fact the results of this graph's technical analysis point to data which confirms all other predictions, including those based on fundamental and historical analysis:

Low Tier Target Price = 0 (Low Tier houses & land is pretty much worthless in a Depression - even in the Bay Area - see Detroit)
Middle Tier Target Price = 40
High Tier Target Price = 70

dunnross says

Yes, in fact the results of this graph’s technical analysis point to data which confirms all other predictions, including those based on fundamental and historical analysis:
Low Tier Target Price = 0 (Low Tier houses & land is pretty much worthless in a Depression - even in the Bay Area - see Detroit)

Middle Tier Target Price = 40

High Tier Target Price = 70

Nice work - I believe more colors, especially neons would really help get your point across to those who don't understand the "head and shoulders" action we have going on.

The H&S action hasn't quite yet been confirmed, because the index didn't break below the neckline. However, we are pretty close to it, and if it does break down, prices are going down to their respective target levels. That's an 80% drop from the peak for the middle tear, which equates to prices going back to the 1975 levels (in nominal terms).

TA gets a bad wrap. but it's pretty useful if, and that's a big if, you know what to look for when trading stocks(don't know how well it applies to a housing index).

claiming that list prices are increasing, so that must mean sale prices will increase is a form of technical analysis (ie chart reading).