patrick.net

I'm pretty sure his stance is that the bottom was in 2009 - and that we may bounce along the bottom for a while.

We'll probably see about 20% off of the 2009 lows before the next bottom is in. The bottom after that may be even lower!

I'm finding it hard to go by the published numbers anyway.
They keep saying South Florida prices fell like 3 or 5% in 2010 by the end of the fourth quarter. Bull Shit I was there.
January of last year the average house I was looking at was going for 225-240K.
By mid July when I made the offer on my house. Those same houses were going for 160-175K.
By my calculations it was closer to a 40% reduction, by the end of the second quarter.

Now I'm starting to see those houses that were listed for 300k-400k down to around 200K.
We're going to over correct across the board by a lot. There wont be anything anyone can do about it.
Most wanting financing wont be able to buy them. And those with money to pay cash will continue to want fire sales.

If our monetary policy was there, we probably would have seen the bottom by now.

The FL market got nailed. I know a couple moving out there next month from CA, and they are thrilled at the cost of real estate out there.

Mr.Fantastic says

FL, Texas, any Southern State, buying a home is like buying a car literally. The prices are trashed.

TX has always been cheap, they didn't have a ton of appreciation, and they probably won't have a lot of depreciation.... Not only are property taxes high but the weather sucks.

Mr.Fantastic says

Yeah I’ve heard Texas has some extreme weather. It still amazes me that people can buy acres of property with a 4 bedroom home out there for less than $500,000 in a “nice” area.

I lived in Fort Worth. Paid $117,000 for a 2 year old, all brick, 3/2 with modest upgrades, in a non-ghetto area.

We had a tornado rip through our area once or twice, but that was about it. I'd never move back because:

a) it routinely gets 110 + degrees for days at a time
b) my psycho path mother in law lives in Dallas (my wife and I don't claim her)

joshuatrio says

I’m pretty sure his stance is that the bottom was in 2009 - and that we may bounce along the bottom for a while.

How are you "pretty sure" that is the case?

Why are you people crowing about information that doesn’t even exist yet?

Home sales volume and prices slip in January

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-housing-prices-20110218,0,265603.story

People who even bought in 2006 in some neighbourhoods are much better off than now.....what's the point ?

Are you posting in the right thread, cloud13?

CNN is running a story on how the double dip is officially in. We've hit new lows!

sfbubblebuyer says

CNN is running a story on how the double dip is officially in. We’ve hit new lows!

Great job CNN, way to catch up to the past. Yet their man Ali Velshi has been out there pimping for NAR the past two years. Whenever that dude talks housing, he's in the "go out and buy" mode.

Per Case-Shiller, we're almost exactly tied with the post-bubble lows. Of course, they'll revise their data, and past revisions indicate that this new point will be the lowest point from the peak (until perhaps the next month's report:).

sfbubblebuyer says

CNN is running a story on how the double dip is officially in. We’ve hit new lows!

How many times CNN has said we are in the recovery?

That's kind of my point. If CNN's is saying we're in a double dip, how much longer before MSNBC finally admits it as well?

SubOink says

I am actually jealous of the fame

there's always room for another retarded kid for us to pick on.

Shawn says

What’s the point of personal attacks?

It's not a personal attack. Keep in mind you're talking about a guy who goes so far to argue his ridiculous points that he'll insultingly throw an "early winter doldrums market" excuse for falling prices.... for AUGUST. I like debates that are challenging. To his credit, he can sometimes offer something resembling that. Not most of the time though.

VanillaSky says

SubOink says

I am actually jealous of the fame

there’s always room for another retarded kid for us to pick on.

Perfect! Thanks!!

EBGuy says

My crystal ball says SF Bay Area C/S Index goes positive in April with a new low come next year (see 1995 for similar action).

I'm curious what your reasoning is. Is it just seasonal?

I had kind of written off the housing tax credit as very minor factor in the bay area, but the circumstantial evidence points to it actually being a powerful motivator. Now I'm wondering about the expiration of higher loan limits for Fannie, Freddie, and FHA loans in the fall.

How do you think one makes money in financial markets? You MUST prognosticate accurately. Your treat is profit and/or an avoidance of a loss.

No "rare gift" is required. We are being sustained in a pitiful state by unprecedented money printing and accounting trickery - it's a complete scam, and the real economy, what is left of it, is ill. It doesn't take a wizard, telepath or anything esoteric to realize RE values are going to keep going down. I suppose we could do a flat-out currency revaluation manipulating a zero or two - would that make you happy?

schmitz_kris says

How do you think one makes money in financial markets? You MUST prognosticate accurately. Your treat is profit and/or an avoidance of a loss.

I think you missed the point. Saying I told you so isn't prognosticating...

tatupu70 says

Yes, you can say I told you so even BEFORE you are right.

Implication that we're not in an official double dip, or that prices aren't falling?

klarek says

tatupu70 says

Yes, you can say I told you so even BEFORE you are right.

Implication that we’re not in an official double dip, or that prices aren’t falling?

I'd just have thought that you'd wait until prices actually fall below the earlier minimum...

tatupu70 says

I’d just have thought that you’d wait until prices actually fall below the earlier minimum…

Off by 0.01 according to Case-Shiller, below previous false bottom by Core Logic's measures. But we sure don't want to be splitting hairs, or would we?

klarek says

tatupu70 says

I’d just have thought that you’d wait until prices actually fall below the earlier minimum…

Off by 0.01 according to Case-Shiller, below previous false bottom by Core Logic’s measures. But we sure don’t want to be splitting hairs, or would we?

Klarek,

Hold your guns for 0.01 decline on the next CS report.

Shockingly, I didn't see this posted anywhere...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1

I know, I know. Most of these sales won't make it to closing, right?

"In other evidence that housing market woes may be settling, home builder Pulte Group Inc (PHM.N) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. The nation's second largest home builder said order cancellations had fallen and that it did not need to offer more incentives to lure customers"

Oops. I guess they are making it to closing.

tatupu70 says

“In other evidence that housing market woes may be settling, home builder Pulte Group Inc (PHM.N) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. The nation’s second largest home builder said order cancellations had fallen and that it did not need to offer more incentives to lure customers”

Oops. I guess they are making it to closing.

That's quite a high bar there, lower losses than expected. I wonder which other builders are having less losses than were expected. I also wonder how new home sales in general compare to the past.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search/label/New%20Home%20Sales

Wow, lowest level ever.

tatupu70 says

Shockingly, I didn’t see this posted anywhere…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1
I know, I know. Most of these sales won’t make it to closing, right?
“In other evidence that housing market woes may be settling, home builder Pulte Group Inc (PHM.N) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. The nation’s second largest home builder said order cancellations had fallen and that it did not need to offer more incentives to lure customers”
Oops. I guess they are making it to closing.

Tatupu - pending home sales can be "up" and prices can fall at the same time.

The title of this thread is that "prices are falling" - which they are.

joshuatrio says

Tatupu - pending home sales can be “up” and prices can fall at the same time.

Typically falling prices will increase demand, hence sales increases. Always been an inverse correlation between the two. But when you shake up the demand side, sales can fall while prices are falling as well, as we've seen during the past eight months. That's the impact of the tax credit.

tatupu70 says

Shockingly, I didn’t see this posted anywhere…

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1

LOL. Home sales always pick up after the winter.

The referred to NAR pending home sales index is down 11.5% from last March, so sales volumes are down from a year ago.

MarkInSF says

tatupu70 says

Shockingly, I didn’t see this posted anywhere…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1

LOL. Home sales always pick up after the winter.
The referred to NAR pending home sales index is down 11.5% from last March, so sales volumes are down from a year ago.

Agreed, but last March was a good month--right before the end of the tax credit.

cooljohn says

talks like he is some kind insider

Of course he is an insider, running the day to day in and outs of a personal bankruptcy company; buying distressed properties and renting them out to working class folks who need a place to live. Exploitation on the way out, exploitation on the way in, and exploitation in between; and boasting about it throughout.

He could be a pizza delivery boy during the daytime.
Then become a lawyer, a stock analyst and a rich investor on the internet in the evening.

Geico is more like it. Both animals are annoying.

.."he's a transpondster!!!" - Rachael Green

I guess bankruptcy lawyers make great finance/econ experts.

Sybrib, I wish I could have the 30 seconds back I spent reading that post.

gameisrigged says

Sybrib, I wish I could have the 30 seconds back I spent reading that post.

I'll second that. LOL

sybrib says

More collapsing prices, more misery, more distressed homes, more misery, more distressed families, more misery, more bankruptcy clients (and fees) for his firm

The vast majority of homeowners, like myself, bought long ago. Prices are mearly going back to long term sustainable levels. The distressed home owners mearly experiences the 'charlie sheen effect' of soberity. All the hupla they believed why prices of homes were sustainable is vanishing.
Soberity is a bitch!

klarek says

He’s abandoned the housing market forum in order to make political arguments in Misc. He’ll probably resurface if we have a month of increasing prices.

He'll be abandoning Misc. soon as well because his political views are in a down market (just like his housing views). Everybody picks on the Duck. The Duck just can't win. No matter where he goes, it's open season on daffy Ducks.

RayAmerica says

it’s open season on daffy Ducks.

Is it an early or delayed season? :)