patrick.net

The U.S. is going to be as expensive as Europe... without the low cost health care and post-secondary education. Stagnant wages, dropping US dollar (after this current blip up ends), rising cost of oil, food and all things imported. How many people will be able to afford a house at today's prices? House prices will eventually have to come back in line with what people can afford. And best get used to foreigners buying up and renting out the neighborhood as their currencies appreciate versus the USD. Canadians experienced this in the 90s and unfortunately it completely changed the fabric of our cities.

i'm a believer in rising wages.

Recently turned down 2 jobs offers due to salary being too low. Looking at my expenses and rising costs I calculated something like the 1st 2 hours of work each day I would strictly be working for gas money to cover the commute.

Eventually wages will need to go up if companies expect to hire anyone.

Overseas labor will be increasingly more expensive as the US dollar slides with higher inflation.

tts says

Owning a home does not provide a sense of community or roots.

i have to disagree with this. being a renter where you're neighbors are changing every 6 months to a year does not provide the sense of community you get from owning.
In fact not to be rude but to let you know most owners do not like having renters as neighbors.

toothfairy says

tts says

Owning a home does not provide a sense of community or roots.

i have to disagree with this. being a renter where you’re neighbors are changing every 6 months to a year does not provide the sense of community you get from owning.

In fact not to be rude but to let you know most owners do not like having renters as neighbors.

toothfairy says

tts says

Owning a home does not provide a sense of community or roots.

i have to disagree with this. being a renter where you’re neighbors are changing every 6 months to a year does not provide the sense of community you get from owning.

In fact not to be rude but to let you know most owners do not like having renters as neighbors.

Again with the fallacies about renters. Renters don't just up and move every 6-12 months.

And as far as renters being neighbors, you post inaccurate information. Most homeowners don't like some rental situations...multi unit buildings, section 8 tennants, etc.

I highly doubt most people care if the engineer, the teacher, or the cop as their next door neighbor is a renter or debtor or owner.

toothfairy says

Eventually wages will need to go up if companies expect to hire anyone.

In Santa Clara, many HT companies have already moved jobs to lower costs areas. Intel, like HP have many of their jobs outside of Santa Clara County and the State like Oregon and Arizona.
There is no gun pointed to employers head forcing them to increase salaries.

toothfairy says

Overseas labor will be increasingly more expensive as the US dollar slides with higher inflation.

US dollar doesnt have an impact on many foreign subs since they earn and spend in local currencies anyway. The translation of FC to USD is a mear bookkeeping entry. As such FX doesnt impact normal running of foreign subs.

thomas.wong1986 says

There is no gun pointed to employers head forcing them to increase salaries.

Tell that to workers at the Post Office.... Or the random disgruntled employee who comes into work and shoots up the place. EVENTUALLY employers have to raise wages to keep a healthy workforce happy and content.

You treat someone like shit long enough.. they'll snap.

Los Angeles Renter says

thomas.wong1986 says

There is no gun pointed to employers head forcing them to increase salaries.

Tell that to workers at the Post Office…. Or the random disgruntled employee who comes into work and shoots up the place. EVENTUALLY employers have to raise wages to keep a healthy workforce happy and content.
You treat someone like shit long enough.. they’ll snap.

not really.

people that kill people have mental issues. they don't kill because they were paid too low.

thomas.wong1986 says

US dollar doesnt have an impact on many foreign subs since they earn and spend in local currencies anyway.

not sure that I follow. IF im a US company hiring indian workers i need to pay them in local currency. The exchange rate matters.

thomas.wong1986 says

In Santa Clara, many HT companies have already moved jobs to lower costs areas. Intel, like HP have many of their jobs outside of Santa Clara County and the State like Oregon and Arizona.

where's the evidence of jobs actually moving away? I see companies are expanding all across the globe including Silicon Valley. it's not a zero sum game.

1. inflation could push salaries and consequently home prices higher

I don't see wage inflation being likely. As much as we need it, with unemployment so high employers can keep wages low, because if candidate A doesn't take the job there are ten others behind him/her who are willing to take what they can get - even if the salary is mediocre.

2. higher interest rates should be needed to slow inflation

I expect the feds to keep the rates low for the next two + years. As with Greenspan the Feds gut reaction (in terms of recent history) is to keep rates low well beyond the point where a recovery has taken hold. TBTB will keep rates as low as they can for as long as they can.

3. those higher interest rates would make homes more expensive thereby holding prices down
True - but even with low rates homes are selling at a snails pace. Unless there is a rapid shift... a gradual rise in rates wouldn't help, but wouldn't cause a precipitous price drop either... if anything the long slow decline (or stagnation) in house prices will most likely continue.

4. as we continue to devalue our currency our homes become cheaper to foreigners with cash
Small factor... I don't see foreigners flocking at least not in my neighborhood.

Those already on pensions (especially federal pensions) should be forced to give part of their paycheck to women, it is only fair as you benefited from them being discriminated against (never will happen though as your generation currently controls the Congress). There should also be federal investigations into who got married to girls that may have been too young at the time. You should be brought to justice before you can no longer function....

toothfairy says

not sure that I follow. IF im a US company hiring indian workers i need to pay them in local currency. The exchange rate matters.

Take either Apple or Google, their foreign subs in Japan, China, Taiwan, Canada, or where ever, make revenue from local customers in local currency. Each sub is its own entity. The revenue earned pays salaries, rent, opx, taxes. Not funded by parent with USD involved since its already paid from their local customers in local currency. The FX gain and losses are flux and revaluations in BS accounts from currency.
But no impact on running the business.

toothfairy says

where’s the evidence of jobs actually moving away? I see companies are expanding all across the globe including Silicon Valley. it’s not a zero sum game.

Wow! glad im an old fart! You can look up any SV website and see where they are hiring. Cheaper or more expensive to live in Hillsboro, Oregon and Austin Texas ?

thomas.wong1986 says

You can look up any SV website and see where they are hiring.

just for kicks I checked software job openings at Apple. There are 2 jobs in Austin,Tx and 249 pages of jobs in Santa Clara Valley

toothfairy says

just for kicks I checked software job openings at Apple. There are 2 jobs in Austin,Tx and 249 pages of jobs in Santa Clara Valley

Try the rest... Intel, HP, AMD, etc etc. Your parameter should include all jobs not just R&D.

BTW, what ever happened to the Apple/SunMicro mfg which dominated Warm Springs area in Fremont ?

With all the inflation we had over say two-three decades in SV including higher home prices, why is it local companies HAVE NOT increase the prices of goods and services they have been selling ?

If you could simply tack on higher salaries due to inflation, we would still have mfg. in SV today, but that is not the case is it. Like any other industry we would simple increase prices of goods.

In fact even in software, the selling prices of enterprise ERP software likes that of Symantec and Oracle is below that of some 20 years ago. Oracle v1 Financials $100K in 1990 for med size company vs v12.1 at $100K today, excluding discount. No wonder Oracle went on a M&A buying spree.

If anything we have more deflation in SV than inflation. Every CEO in SV will tell you that is the fact or doing business in high tech.

toothfairy says

I see companies are expanding all across the globe including Silicon Valley. it’s not a zero sum game.

Yahoo transplanted 66 SV jobs to Omaha Nebraska.

http://careers.yahoo.com/jsearchresults.php?pagenumber=3&prev=1&next=&crumb=717LQqvGhW8&sortfield=PostingDate&sortorder=desc&sort=&concept=&action=&submit_x=&totalrec=31&resume=&key=&reqid=&jcat=&city=NE-Omaha&proximity=&datecreated=&submit_x=Prev+15

if it were so easy to just move people to Omaha Nebraska and pay them less money.

I dont understand why there are 249 pages of software jobs that Apple hasn't been able to fill.

This stuff we've been talking about is sort of specific to the bay area.
In general my view on inflation is low inflation and low interest rates while the economy recovers.

when are people going to get it through their heads that electronics (iPads, headphones whatever) have nothing to do with inflation. On a whole they will rise over time with the rest, but there are still so many other factors such as Market saturation and EOL shelf clear-outs that will always drive down the price on a particular model. If you want to see how electronics are effected by inflation look at specialty items such as Leica camera.

The only thing about Americas inflation that is unique is that wages will not rise to counter it and as a whole we are all being shoved into the poor house. Only silver lining imho is less SUV and pickups in cities.

toothfairy says

I dont understand why there are 249 pages of software jobs that Apple hasn’t been able to fill.

Are these jobs real?
Anyone applied them?

danaceb says

when are people going to get it through their heads that electronics (iPads, headphones whatever) have nothing to do with inflation.

The gov. uses hedonics to adjust the GDP/inflation though. So right or wrong you're going to see others bring it up if for no other reason than that they don't know any better.

FWIW I think the _concept_ of adjusting GDP and for inflation based on hedonics has some value but I don't think its something that should be allowed because it makes it too easy for corrupt or incompetent gov. to fudge the numbers any way they like.

xenogear3 says

toothfairy says

I dont understand why there are 249 pages of software jobs that Apple hasn’t been able to fill.

Are these jobs real?

Anyone applied them?

Apple it seems is the only exception to what we have seen over the recent years. But it wasnt like that before. Apple bearly survived going into the 90s. Many many others went under.