patrick.net

But like I said, not even my dog listens to me.

My cats do not listen to me either, they still want me to buy them a cat condo. :)

Some strange shit going down today.
First, Bush makes a speech promising massive LBJ-style federal spending programs to help poor hurricane victims, now David Lereah telling the truth. What's next??

Tomorrow's headlines(?):

Victory Declared in the War on Terror - Osama says "my bad" and turns self/comrades in to U.S. Military

Cats and Dogs Living Together

He's definitely a conservative when it comes to the culture war/family values thing, but as you say, not on spending. Hence the term, "Big-Government Conservative".

Personal disclaimer:
I'm a registered independent. I don't care for PC, knee-jerk neo-liberalism any more than I care for stingy, militaristic neo-conservatism.

"stingy, militaristic neo-conservatism."

Awwwwwww.

_hangs head and starts to walk away_

_kicks cat_

_walks a bit futher_

_kicks a poor person_

_walks a bit further_

_kicks a defenseless puppy_

_walks a bit further_

_starts a preemptive unilateral war_

_walks a bit further_

_holds side while cackling with Karl Rove, exposing razor sharp yellow teeth_

Cheers,
prat

LOL
Ok... now what about "PC, knee-jerk neo-liberalism"??

_hangs head and starts to walk away_

_rescues cat from shelter_

_walks a bit futher_

_gives homeless person his money (homeless person spends it all on booze/drugs)_

_walks a bit further_

_gives illegal immigrant a drivers license_

_walks a bit further_

_goes to Hollywood/George Soros sponsored anti-war rally_

_walks a bit further_

_holds side while cackling with Bill Clinton, exposing self to girls at strip club_

Nice piece. As a guess, I'd say AG's recent reversals are more about 11th hour CYA and preserving the "legacy" before his retirement.

I am sure SactoQT will enjoy that picture also.

You know it!

Isn't it interesting that the Sacto area seems to be leading the BA in the changing of the RE picture. In the past, we've tended to follow. But I think the rampant building out here has changed the picture. It's impossible to sustain BA type price increases without the factors that make the BA unique.

Btw. Love Harm and Prat's take on the politics of the day.

Nice piece. As a guess, I’d say AG’s recent reversals are more about 11th hour CYA and preserving the “legacy” before his retirement.

On his last day, he will say...

"By the way, it is now possible to ascertain the existence of the national housing bubble. It is certain that the bubble will burst and people will be ruined. It is very likely that the slide will start tomorrow when I am on the beach."

Nice piece. As a guess, I’d say AG’s recent reversals are more about 11th hour CYA and preserving the “legacy” before his retirement.

If this thing is a ticking time bomb and it goes off the "legacy" will definitely get shot to Hell.

...It is very likely that the slide will start tomorrow when I am on the beach.”

"And now I'd like to introduce everyone to my successor, the new Fed Chairman: Michael Brown."

Peter P

Do you think he would say it that coherently? I wonder what that would sound like in Greenspeak?

"By the way it is now possible to conjecture that there may be some spilling over of the froth that is now in the housing market. Is is assured that the spill over will occur and people will find their earnings in a state of deterioration. It is likely the overflow will occur after I absent myself to a sandy luminous retreat."

“By the way it is now possible to conjecture that there may be some spilling over of the froth that is now in the housing market. Is is assured that the spill over will occur and people will find their earnings in a state of deterioration. It is likely the overflow will occur after I absent myself to a sandy luminous retreat.”

LOL :lol:

Wow, SactoQt - that was so good, maybe YOU should apply for the job (*not employment advice*). ;-)
G'nite all...

Wow, SactoQt - that was so good, maybe YOU should apply for the job (*not employment advice*).
G’nite all…

Oops. My post got messed up somehow.

I meant to say thanks........ I think.

Nite Harm.

Hymie

You mentioned that you wonder what happens to people who move out of state to afford a house after the market falls. I can give you my personal experience, and I bet it'll be fairly close to what happens to a lot of people.

My parents found themselves priced out of the Ca housing market back in late 70's early 80's. I don't know what the market in Ca was doing at that particular time, but it was my family's situation nonetheless. Anyway. We moved to Oregon and my parents were able to buy a really nice house in a nice area and all was well, for awhile. Turns out, Oregon wasn't really our cup of tea. Or maybe it was just the town. It was really small and everyone was in everyone else's business. My family lasted 5 years.

We moved back to Ca and were able to find a house. Housing must've fallen in the 5 years we were gone in order for my parent's to afford a house, and it definitely fell in Oregon because my parent's couldn't give the house away. They rented the house out for a few years, put it up for sale again and still couldn't get rid of it. My mom's friend worked at the bank and said that people were turning their keys in because no one was buying anything. That's what my parent's ended up doing.

..........zzzzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZ..........._IRQwakeup_ ....

Hi All,
I need some more therapy.
I can almost believe that RE can go up forever.

Ahhh, RE's little conundrums:-
1) Short term rates increasing, long term rates dropping.
(AG's problem, not mine)
2) Median house price increasing, house prices dropping.
(can happen, where different market segments are behaving differently)
3) House owners being equity rich, but being cash poor.
(SEP (Someone Elses Problem))
4) House prices going up, owners being able to redraw less on equity.
(Interest rates going up will limit loan ammounts that can be serviced)

(Not real life advice)

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...........

We should probably organize more get togethers should this Saturday works out.

1) Short term rates increasing, long term rates dropping.
(AG’s problem, not mine)
2) Median house price increasing, house prices dropping.
(can happen, where different market segments are behaving differently)
3) House owners being equity rich, but being cash poor.
(SEP (Someone Elses Problem))
4) House prices going up, owners being able to redraw less on equity.

Looks like we are in the decade of conundrum.

Remember that Star Trek TNG episode of the same name? We will eventually figure it out.

“It’s getting a little bit scary right now,” she said. “I’m not a person of means. I’m a retired nurse and a widow and I don’t have millions to call upon.”

Generas, 64, moved to a condo in Tierrasanta last spring and put a $1.1 million asking price on her 1,879-square-foot, three-bedroom home in Kensington. Since then, it’s been in and out of escrow three times and is listed at $950,000 to $975,000. Her son Tony is house-sitting and helping cover her two mortgage payments, which total $6,000 a month. But she’s not ready to accept lowball offers.

Sorry, but I need to comment.

Which bank in their right mind would lend a retired person this ammount of money. A quick reality check here please.
Did the lender ok the loan on the basis that a retired person has an income stream to make payments, or was this a bridging loan?

It would appear that she was allowed to be in a financially risky position.
Was this her choice, or her incompentant lawyer or banker?

The banks must be sweating for October 17.

GREED IS BAD.

Hi Peter P,
Howzit going.
Been busy watching the cricket. (awwwwwww)

How are the options going?

Which bank in their right mind would lend a retired person this ammount of money. A quick reality check here please.

The entire system is on crack. Too bad.

It would appear that she was allowed to be in a financially risky position.
Was this her choice, or her incompentant lawyer or banker?

It does not matter. A competant lawyer and banker is someone who gets the deal done. Caveat Emptor.

Too much greed. Watch out when that turns into fear.

Hi Peter P,
Howzit going.
Been busy watching the cricket. (awwwwwww)

I am doing fine. How are you doing?

How are the options going?

Only the FNM put is doing okay. Homebuilders are still bullish and I am not going to touch them for a while. Mortgage stocks appear to be weakening.

(Not investment advice)

his her choice, or her incompentant lawyer or banker?

It does not matter. A competant lawyer and banker is someone who gets the deal done. Caveat Emptor.

The point here is that a competant lawyer or banker would be telling the client the risks involved.
It would have then been her decision to take the risk.

The point here is that a competant lawyer or banker would be telling the client the risks involved.
It would have then been her decision to take the risk.

That would be a competent AND ethical lawyer or banker. ;)

Has anybody worked out:-

1) How many jobs are created by Unemployment.
2) How much wealth is created by bankruptcy.
3) How much debt has been created by real estate.
4) How many people that are in debt who think that they are wealthy.

That would be a competent AND ethical lawyer or banker.

Actually, imo lawyers are paid to be immoral.
Consider, in a courtroom, both sides of court have lawyers that are trying to argue counter arguments. Obviously, given the facts of a case, only one side can be morally correct. The other side is trying to argue legal argument why morals should be put aside.

Actually, imo lawyers are paid to be immoral.
Consider, in a courtroom, both sides of court have lawyers that are trying to argue counter arguments. Obviously, given the facts of a case, only one side can be morally correct. The other side is trying to argue legal argument why morals should be put aside.

Worse. Lawyers could be arguing for the sake of generating billable hours.

(Not an accusation)

1) How many jobs are created by Unemployment.
2) How much wealth is created by bankruptcy.
3) How much debt has been created by real estate.
4) How many people that are in debt who think that they are wealthy.

My head is spinning. Good nite. Talk to you tomorrow.

From Yahoo! "bond ticker:"

Mastering the Obvious: Treasury's Snow once stumping at a Home Depot in Atlanta. saying "We believe that economic growth will slow in the last quarter of this year as a result of Katrina, but are optimistic that rebuilding efforts will give GDP, jobs and our overall economy a lift by the first quarter of next year." (Bloomberg.com)

http://bonds.yahoo.com/bt.html

So, anticipation of no interest rate hike....

---3) How much debt has been created by real estate.---

Actually, insofar as mortgage debt, this is well known because of the complex debt tranching that goes on. Debt tranching also diversifies the risk across capital markets, which is why most people's "common sense" about how real-estate debt works is generally wrong. Of course, that doesn't mean there won't be a lot of defaults, but the effect will be less than the worst of the doomsayers hope for--at a macro level.

As to (4), it is quite possible to earn returns with debt. Being in debt doesn't automatically mean you're not wealthy. It all depends upon the relative costs of capital and exposure to risk.

...Jobs created by unemployment? If you're implicating sectoral restructuring, then it is undeniable that net jobs are created. It just sucks for those who are "restructured". (emperical evidence from Solow, et. al).

And again, so I don't get flamed: I am on the record as a BEAR on Bay Area & California general RE.

I know it was the last thread, but IMO the real thing to fear here is INFLATION. This will be the long-term, killer. It has the potential of _both_ helping pop the RE bubble and simultaneously preventing those on the sidelines from profiting from the correction (because of uneven inflation...stagnent incomes, rising energy prices, etc).

It has the potential of _both_ helping pop the RE bubble

Are we talking about general, across-the-board inflation here? If so, I'd like to know how this could prop up the RE bubble. In the absence of factors that propped the bubble sofar, rising inventory, etc, it seems that RE prices could easily drop--to what people are willing to pay, no?

What are your SOURCES for your inventory time Mr. Right? I don't buy that Bay Area inventory is exactly the same as one year ago because it's not - especially in the EAST BAY.

PS Even the DQ article in the Chronicle admitted that SF inventory is up between 10% and 15% from this time last year.

For "Mr. Right" Here's a RECENT article about Tracy. Tracy is about as close as you can get to Silicon Valley and not technically be in the Bay Area.

http://www.tracypress.com/local/2005-09-03-housing.php

BTW, this story of increasing inventory holds true for the Tri-Valley cities of Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore and San Ramon as well.

"That’s true. My numbers are rounded to the nearest 0.5%, so a change from 1.9 months to 2.2 months (a 15% increase) would both show as 2.0 months."

Yes, but you are claiming that 2.0 is the number for the entire Bay Area. ALameda and Contra Costa has gone up much more than 15. More like AT LEAST 30%, if not higher, from this time last year.

Inventory seems to be rising fast though. There were 800 listings in craigslist between 400K and 600K right after July 4. Now there are nearly 1700!

(Well, craigslist is more of a psychological barometer, not a measure of inventory level)

There are LOTS of cities in Alameda & Contra Costa with current inventory levels that are over 100 (pretty much ALL cities except for the small ones) - numbers unthinkable this time last year. Do a search and see for yourself.