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Social effects of the bubble


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2005 Sep 21, 3:01am   51,415 views  583 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Per Jamie's request

What kind of social impact do you think there has been by the bubble? Are people any different because of the wealth effect? What about the social impact on people who have not bought into the RE market? Do you think what we are seeing is predictable human behavior that will occur again in the next bubble?

Is there a social impact we haven't discussed yet?

#bubbles

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229   Jamie   2005 Sep 22, 12:45pm  

"Oh, and Jamie, please don’t assume too much when you read my posts."

Escape, I'm sorry I read more into your post than you meant. :-)

230   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 2:36pm  

Central Cali,

I don't have any fast stats on how many migrant workers are still employed in CA agriculture, but I doubt it's zero (the UFWs still in business, I gather ;-) ). You may be right about mechanization eliminating many of those jobs, but last time I travelled up the I-5 I saw plenty of 'em working the fields.

Mr Left-Right-Wrong,

Hispanic tax-paying, legal workers: no problemo! The more skilled & educated, the better for everyone. Illegal, easily exploited, wage-depressing anything: not so good.

231   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 2:46pm  

Mr Left-Right-Wrong,

I find it a little hard to believe your comments were deleted from Ben's blog --they're a more high-strung bunch, yes, but not intolerant. You're way too low key and, as you say, don't anger easily. I wonder, are your posts being mistaken for a certain troll known to pollute such RE blogs? Just curious...

232   tsusiat   2005 Sep 22, 2:59pm  

OwnerOccupier,

Vancouver is a funnel for Chinese money into North America, there is as much industry in Vancouver as in any city in California. There was a big crash in prices in 97 after Hong Kong reverted to China and that money temporarily dried up. Prices in Vancouver are still not as high as in California, and so now in the last three years a lot of American money has flowed north. Of course, this is now slowing as markets in the US get shaky, and the Canadian dollar has risen from .62 to .85 in just over a year on the back of sound federal finances and strong commodity prices, and now record oil prices as well.

We are heading back to a Canadian dollar on par with the US dollar, a flood of American "immigrants" (like the Chinese before them), and wholesale advantages for local industry (can you say, BC Hydro?).

But of course, our real estate markets are still overextended and heading for a correction as well, usually trailing yours by a year, all else being equal.

Risky financing is not nearly as prevalent here, but absentee investor landlords are common.

Personally, if rich americans could please stay in America for another year or so to let our prices drop a bit, it would be appreciated by all canadians who can't afford houses right now.

In Victoria, a family earning over the median household income is unable to qualify for any kind of townhouse or house without at least $100,000 down. How ridiculous is that?

That means prices here are also now completely disconnected from incomes.

233   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 3:01pm  

I find the deleting of Mr. Right-Left-Wrong's post's surprising too. I hope it isn't because of a bullish slant, that would be very wrong. I certainly have never thought of you as a troll.

Escape from the District.................with Kurt Russel

Thanks for the post. I have liked a lot of what you have had to say and I think your imput is valuable. I guess a lot of us got a tad angry, and like Surfer-X said, maybe there should be a post asking why we're all so angry about a housing market?

234   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 3:10pm  

Btw, I’m getting very busy these days. We need more threadmaster’s. Anyone anyone??? I’m going to keep pestering until someone steps up.

So far no one's stepped up to the plate on SactoQt's request...

C'mon, how hard is it to register and create ONE MEASLY THREAD! Some of the posts I've read here are so long they should be broken down into chapters. You're telling me you can spend an hour writing a doctoral disseration on macroeconomics, but can't spend ONE MINUTE creating a new thread??

Who are you trying to kid here :???:
I have a little "homework" assignment for the following regulars:

Kurt S
Jack (and I don't want to hear another lame "I don't have time" excuse!)
Surfer-X
primetroll
Mr. Right
Praetorian
Van Kouver
Stanman
Randy H
Jamie
Karrie
SJ_Jim
dipanjan
AntiTroll from Oz
Escaped from DC
pop!
CentralCali
Owneroccupier
pbass
jbunniii

Register (if you haven't already done so) email Patrick asking for moderation rights (p@patrick.net) and start ONE THREAD. That's all I'm asking. If you decide you don't ever want to moderate again, no problem --I'll never bug you again, I promise :-).

235   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 3:13pm  

I have noticed a change in tone when I talk to people about the housing market. I mean, it's really noticeable. For the last couple of years whenever I told anyone that I was a renter, I usually heard comments like "Oh, why don't you buy?" And of course, everyone's favorite "You really should buy in or you're going to get priced out."

Now, whenever I say I am renting and waiting the market out for another 2-3 years, every person I talk to now says "Oh, that's smart in this market." And I'm also hearing a lot of comments like "My cousin/in law's/brother is doing the same thing."

Maybe the tone has changed more dramatically here because our market is likely to go down before the BA, at least I think that is going to be the case. Actually, I'm seeing anecdotal evidence (like the story I posted earlier) that prices are already declining here. And there isn't any sentiment among people I'm talking to that the market is going to rebound in the near future.

236   OO   2005 Sep 22, 3:13pm  

Fellow Canadian/psuedo Americans up there (aka tsusiat, primetroll, ..)

While I like the Pacific Northwest in general, I am a bit concerned over your infrastructure standard in the earthquake-prone zone. As far as I can tell, most of your structure built up there (including Seattle) cannot stand well in a >5.0 earthquake. It is not unlikely that you guys will see a BIG one in the near future, some scientists pointed out that you are long overdue.

Apart from that, Pacific Northwest rocks.

237   Zephyr   2005 Sep 22, 3:15pm  

Ben definately does delete posts that he disagrees with. I was just deleted a while ago.

238   Zephyr   2005 Sep 22, 3:20pm  

I just reposted there. He will probably delete it again.

239   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 3:20pm  

Zephyr - can you post the offending comment here? I'm curious to see what it takes to get deleted there.

240   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 3:25pm  

Zephyr, I read your post.
It's a little combative in tone and the argument's a little straw-man-ish perhaps, but hardly troll-worthy material. I can't see why it got deleted.

241   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 3:27pm  

Ok, I've registered, and would like to post a new thread,

"why you so bitter, bro"

242   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 3:28pm  

how do I do so?

243   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 3:29pm  

Btw, I posted an almost identical thread to Ben's latest ("How Would You Fix This Housing Bubble?") called "Bubble Reform" back on August 10th.

244   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 3:31pm  

I really can't think of a single time when I've thought Zephyr ought to be deleted. I can handle argumentative. It's outright insults that one has to draw the line at, simply for the sake of sane discussions. But to delete when you disagree with someone is wrong.

245   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 3:33pm  

Bravo, Surfer-X!

Just email Patrick (p@patrick.net), asking for thread creating/moderating rights. Once he's granted you rights, log on then click on the 'Site Admin' link under 'Meta' on the main page. Click on "Write" and there you are...

246   Zephyr   2005 Sep 22, 3:35pm  

I just checked, and Ben deleted it again. No surprise.

247   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 3:36pm  

Zephyr, your comment got deted again. Your name must be on his "spam" list for some reason --no way Ben can be actively moderating 24/7.

248   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 3:36pm  

I LOVE the idea of Surfer-X creating a thread!

249   Zephyr   2005 Sep 22, 3:37pm  

BTW, I rarely post there. So it is very unlikely that I have any kind of reputation there.

250   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 3:41pm  

Zephyr

Well, you know we value your insights and no one here (I think) objects to thoughtful opinions whether we agree or not. I for one think you are a great resource and I'm glad you'll spend time with us.

Ok I'm done with the love fest. But I think it needs to be said.

251   Zephyr   2005 Sep 22, 3:41pm  

HARM,

I don't think he has me listed as spam. A post that I made last night is still there.

252   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 3:50pm  

Wow, talk about thin-skinned. We put up with MP's crap for over a month (and still are) before we booted his masturbatory flame-provoking ass. As long as it doesn't get excessivly personal, crude or spammy, I'd prefer not to block.

253   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 3:54pm  

Well, you know we value your insights and no one here (I think) objects to thoughtful opinions whether we agree or not. I for one think you are a great resource and I’m glad you’ll spend time with us.

Ditto - debating in the absence of contrary viewpoints is like clapping with one hand.

254   Zephyr   2005 Sep 22, 4:02pm  

Thanks, I am not shy about expressing my opinion, and I can be strong in my views. But, the appropriate response is a counter argument, not deletion.

255   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 4:05pm  

But, the appropriate response is a counter argument, not deletion.

Absolutely.

256   praetorian   2005 Sep 22, 4:09pm  

OMFG.

Longest. Thread. Ever.

Who is this Randy H kid, and why does he seem to think that informed, rational argument is any way to discuss things?

@Harm: heh

@Peter: head down, tempo, back and through on plane

@sqt: Holy crap! *ahem* How's sac?

@SurferX: Sometimes, the dude... Well. He's the dude.

@Jack: Could you do your ascii art in a more classical style? Since ascii artists threw out concepts such as symmetry, proportion and humanism, it's no wonder that the public audience has faded. It is not the public that has failed ascii art, but rather ascii art that has failed the public.

Cheers,
prat

257   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 4:31pm  

Welcome, back, Prat!

You're right --this is the longest thread ever. This is exactly why we need solid bloggers like you to put a stop to it by registering and starting new ones ;-).

258   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 4:38pm  

Well, dudeareno if you're not into the whole brevity thing....:)

259   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 4:41pm  

Regarding immigrants, each time I drive through King City and see all those mofo's picking whatever, I yell out the window "you sons o'bitches how dare you take jobs from amerikans". Or alternatively "hola pendehos"

260   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 4:43pm  

I kid, I kid. :) *

*disclaimer -- I'm 1/2 mexican

261   praetorian   2005 Sep 22, 4:52pm  

I emailed patrick. I'll chip in.

We've got a piper down. I repeat, the piper is DOWN.

What?

Cheers,
prat

262   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 5:05pm  

A320 pilot to cabin "what the fuck did you expect, we're French"

263   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 5:05pm  

BTW, never ever consider a Boston Terrier, they snore something terrible.

264   Peter P   2005 Sep 22, 5:18pm  

Ben definately does delete posts that he disagrees with. I was just deleted a while ago.

Well, when I was posting as an anon in Ben's blog, someone thought I was a troll. And I was not possessed by Bull$hitter at that time.

265   Peter P   2005 Sep 22, 5:27pm  

Well, I don't don't why Zephyr and Mr.Right/Wrong/Left would be deleted there. I thought we are already deleting more than we would like to. :roll:

266   Peter P   2005 Sep 22, 5:38pm  

Anyway, Zephyr and Mr.Right/Wrong/Left, I am really glad that you guys are here. You add new dimensions to the discussions.

267   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 5:45pm  

@Prat & Surfer-X,

Thanks for chipping in, guys --really appreciate it. I'm going to be away for a month, so Peter, SactoQt will really need the help.

G'nite all...

268   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 5:54pm  

Nite Harm

Glad to hear from Prat (Yaaaa!)

Regarding immigrants, each time I drive through King City and see all those mofo’s picking whatever, I yell out the window “you sons o’bitches how dare you take jobs from amerikans”. Or alternatively “hola pendehos”

LMAO. It's good to have some humor amidst all these discussions about immigration. I think a lot of the comments are meant seriously, but sometimes it's hard to tell if there is veiled racism or if too much is being read into the remarks. Either way, we've all begun to take too many of the comments waaaaaaaaaaay to seriously. Thanks for lightening things up.

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