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Future housing trends


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2005 Oct 5, 2:09pm   14,785 views  179 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

What will the popular post-bubble house look like?

#housing

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100   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 4:30pm  

How do you go from diamond mine slaves to food in one seamless seguay?

But I thought everyone has to eat something...

Oh, now I remember...

diamond -> pearl -> oyster -> seafood -> sushi

101   Zephyr   2005 Oct 6, 4:31pm  

As I recall, the 1987 crash on Monday followed a significant decline on Friday. Stocks had been slipping since August of 1987.

In 1929. The same pattern occurred with stocks slipping since August with a major one-day collapse on a Tuesday.

102   Zephyr   2005 Oct 6, 4:42pm  

Five of the ten worst single-day declines have occurred in the month of October. October 19, 1987 was the largest single-day decline of the DJIA in history.

Black Tuesday October 29, 1929 was the third worst day in history. Monday October 28, 1929 was actually a worse decline, and is the second worst day ever for the Dow.

103   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 6, 4:49pm  

Thanks for thoughts, Peter P & Zeph.
Also, found this from a 1988 "psychology today" article:
"After the October crash, Yale University economist Robert Shiller sent questionaires to 2,000 individual investors-savvy, active traders-to probe their thoughts and feelings during that tumultuous period. Shiller asked the investors to rate the importance of several events that occurred during the previous week, events later suggested by the press as having precipitated the crash: Chemical Bank's raising its prime rate, the announcement of trade deficit figures and the U.S. attack on an Iranian off station.

For the nearly 1,000 investors who responded, however, the crucial event was news concerning the market itself: some sharp drops during the preceding week and a precipitous 200-point drop on the morning of the 19th. In other words, price movements in the market were triggered chiefly by other price movements in the market.

This led to a market panic that fed on itself, the way a few people running for a theater exit and yelling, "Fire!" can stampede a whole crowd."

Shiller's been around a while, huh?
Runaway spontaneity is fascinating (well, unless it makes you miserable, i guess).

104   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 4:49pm  

October is cursed. Must be the stars.

105   quesera   2005 Oct 6, 5:43pm  

SJ_Jim: In other words, price movements in the market were triggered chiefly by other price movements in the market.

The exchanges (NYSE at least) created automatic suspension of trading rules in the wake of the 1987 crash to prevent a reoccurrence of this phenomenon.. I believe the trigger was a raw point decline originally, but was later (in the dot-com runup) changed to a percentage decline (10%?).

I don't know whether trading has ever been suspended by these rules.. A 10% single-day decline would be genuine drama.

106   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 5:54pm  

A 10% single-day decline would be genuine drama.

More 10-sigma events?

107   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 6, 6:20pm  

Heh, found this on fool.com. Sort of a 1987 year in review on Wall Street...leading up to Oct 19, 1987. Might be a trip down memory lane for some.
Here's an excerpt:
"April 26, 1987
Wall Street law firm Davis, Polk & Wardwell reveals that it has discovered a cocaine ring operating in its office. One of the principals was tipped off by a custodian with a beeper who offered to help him sell drugs. "

I had completely forgotten about cocaine & the 80's! (and no, not because I was doing it!)
g'night anyone still reading.

108   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 6, 6:21pm  

derr, forgot the link:

http://tinyurl.com/7c86d

109   Jamie   2005 Oct 7, 2:53am  

Thanks everyone for the thoughts on building. It's becoming clearer and clearer why so few people do it in the BA (aside from land scarcity). I have friends who've built their homes in other states with little trouble...but that's a whole different ballgame.

110   Jamie   2005 Oct 7, 4:31am  

"One Realtor [the other day] called and said, 'I'm just testing my phone; it's been really quiet," Madrid said."

LOL!

111   Jamie   2005 Oct 7, 4:51am  

I'm thinking there is going to be a new trend in Home and Garden TV programming in the coming housing crash.

Extreme Makeover: Home Edition will be replaced by
Extreme Makeover: Cardboard Box Edition

Flip This House will be replaced by
Foreclose This House

House Hunters will be replaced by
Mobile Home Park Hunters

Design Cents, currently with a $500 design budget, will actually live up to its name by switching to a $5 design budget, with themes like, how to dumpster dive for your kitchen redesign

Designers' Challenge will no longer feature spoiled yuppies doing $50K bathroom redesigns, but will instead feature bathroom redesign challenges like how to make your $2 plastic hamper look like a million bucks

Curb Appeal will feature former homeowners who once spent $100K updating their vintage Eichler, now struggling with how to look stylish yet unobtrusive while begging on the street corner in front of their former home.

112   Jamie   2005 Oct 7, 4:58am  

"Extreme Makeover: Cardboard Box Edition"

Why does this sound so familiar? Did we already play this game and I've forgotten? If so, sorry to steal someone else's show idea. :-P

113   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:19am  

Or alternatively the "I'm a little maggot show" starring Marinawannabeya, this show will be popular as it features shallow little assholes spewing shit about respected members of an online community. It will attract all the trend sucking Gen-Y fuckbags and thier drug addled Boomer scum parents. You can even watch it in your Hummer!

114   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:28am  

Hey hows the homeshopping network going? As you are at home right now, using your charter modem.

115   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:29am  

I think there should be a new TV show called, “Desperate Renters” starring Patrick and his wife SactoQT, with their 3 triplet, loser, adult sons, HARM, Peter P and Randy H, who still live with mommy and daddy, lifelong San Francisco renters who are about to retire and have no pot to pee in.

Huh? I have nothing but an inquiring mind. I do not deserve my own show.

116   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:29am  

Nah, the Hummer will already be repossessed, he'll be stuck watching it in his parents basement. Wait, he already does that.

117   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:32am  

marinawannabeya, I mean really, isn't this a waste of your time? Shouldn't you be at yoga limbering up so you and MP can finally do the downward facing dog dirty style in his Prime mansion? Or better yet perhaps you could ride the short bus with him and steal some more milk money.

118   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:32am  

I am now ignoring the troll. Why bother with the mindless blather that he spews.

119   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:34am  

I still think that marinawannabeya is a fake troll.

120   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:35am  

Now this is really odd, you see MP works at Credit Suisse First Boston in SF, and this troll is at home using comcast. Weird that one would choose to emulate another troll, so weak in their personality they can't make up their own troll personality. One thing that might be fun is to go onto the CSFB website and find someones email address or name, say a VP, the format usually goes first_last@csfb.com, or first.last, and then email the person all the profane bullshit comments and ask them if condone this crap from their work environments. Oh and be sure to include the IP.

121   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:35am  

I guess if he's putting wannabe in the name, you're probably right. Either way, ignoring is the way to go.

122   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:36am  

Surfer-X

I like your style.

123   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:37am  

SactoQt, dig your style too! :)

124   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:43am  

I am pretty sure he is the altered ego of a bubblehead.

125   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:43am  

He’s not responding….Seems like you made him a little nervous!

Dare to dream!

126   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:44am  

OK here's the corporate board of CSFB, and here is their online contact link

http://www.credit-suisse.com/en/contact/triage_1.html

Should be fun to inform CSFB what their masters of the universe are doing when they aren't defrauding foreign governments. And it shouldn't be hard to figure out the email format. I think after I get off at wal-mart I'll give it a try. Enjoy your weekend all.

Brady Dougan Chief Executive Officer of CSFB
Paul Calello Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Asia-Pacific Region
Tony Ehinger Co-Head of Equity Division
Brian Finn President
Marc Granetz Co-Head of the Global Corporate and Investment Banking Division
John Harrison Head of Executive Office Administration
James Healy Head of Fixed Income Division
James Kreitman Co-Head of Equity Division
Neil Moskowitz Chief Financial Officer, Head of Global Finance, Administration and Operations
Bayo Ogunlesi Executive Vice Chairman, Chief Client Officer
Michael Philipp Chief Executive Officer of CSFB Europe, Middle East and Africa
Dick Thornburgh Executive Vice Chairman, Vice Chairman of the Executive Board
Eric Varvel Co-Head of the Global Corporate and Investment Banking Division

127   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:44am  

I am pretty sure he is the altered ego of a bubblehead.

I'd much rather hear from Bull$hitter.

128   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:45am  

Surfer-X

I hope I never piss you off!

129   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:47am  

I still like your style, but I don't want to make you angry. We wouldn't like you when you're angry. ;) Actully, you give good rants when you're angry, so I guess I have to take that back.

130   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:47am  

The funny thing is that a company like CSFB would take this crap very seriously, and given the IP address, which I saved, they could easily find this asshole and my guess is that the talking to wouldn't be nice. I call using work servers to spew shit online the mark of someone who wishes to lose quite a bit. So foolish to take such a risk for nothing. Oh well, the mark of the world we live in.

131   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:49am  

I hope I never piss you off!

SactoQT, I'm actually supermellow, but I hate it when someone harshes my mellow. And I abhor bullies.

132   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:49am  

My husband works in the corporate world, and I've heard of guys getting fired for ignoring warnings about objectionable emails. Big companies take this stuff very seriously.

133   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:52am  

Big companies take this stuff very seriously.

Yes, yes they do. And given all the personal information this troll has given out, boastfull ego-filled asshole he is, shouldn't be hard for Credit Suisse to track him down.

Making 400K a year, 400K
Losing your job because you are a shallow ego-filled troll, priceless.

Some moments you can buy for the rest there's patrick.net

134   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:52am  

My husband works in the corporate world, and I’ve heard of guys getting fired for ignoring warnings about objectionable emails. Big companies take this stuff very seriously.

But what is "objectionable" though?

135   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:53am  

Let's not be too hard on MP. That is not our mission.

136   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:58am  

FIRST DRAFT

Dear (Insert name here),

I am an active participant of an online housing bubble blog. There are regular posters to this site and generally we have a wonderful online community developing. One where people’s diverse opinions are welcome, and wanted. We tolerate all sorts of behavior, provided you contribute and are not personal in your attacks or abusive. Most people abide by this simple code. The reason I am writing you is that a Credit Suisse First Boston employee, with the IP address XXX.XX.XXX.XX has been posting rather rude, profanity filled, comments. I feel that it is a huge waist of your corporate resources not to mention a stain on CSFB's good name. Could you kindly wash their mouth out with soap and educate your employees on good manners?

Sincerely,

Surfer-X

137   Jamie   2005 Oct 7, 5:59am  

"I’d much rather hear from Bull$hitter."

Love that guy. We should hear from him more often. ;-)

Surfer-X, I'm never gonna be able to think of downward dog the same way again, LOL. and RE the board of CSFB, you've got great style.

138   surfer-x   2005 Oct 7, 5:59am  

But what is “objectionable” though?

Making a ton of money and still having enough time to offend, insult, and bother people online. Not to mention the quality of character issues.

139   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 6:10am  

But what is “objectionable” though?

My husband's company defines objectionable as lewd, profane, sexist, pornographic-- that kind of stuff. They actually are fairly tolerant as I have seen some emails that poke fun at political figures that are kind of risque. But if they warn an employee, they expect to be listened to. If not, the employee can be fired.

Jaime

I also have to say, your posts are a hoot. I don't think you get enough credit.

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