patrick.net

Fuck you and your verbose wall of text.

Bellingham Bill says

Population still keeps on increasing, giving greater and greater utility to the land, and more and more wealth to its owner. The town has grown into a city — a St. Louis, a Chicago or a San Francisco — and still it grows.

Funny, you could easily be describing Detroit in the first half of the last century. In 1950 the population of the CITY of Detroit was the same as the entire COUNTY of Santa Clara today, 1.8M. Detroit however has a land area of only 138 square miles while SCC is 1290 square miles, nearly 10x the size.

Yet somehow they made the rents work

Detroit had a lot going for it too, a uber-modern city with manufacturing, tourism, access for seagoing vessels to the Atlantic via the St Lawrence Seaway, and of course its directly adjacent to our still largest trading partner Canada. It was called the Paris of the Midwest.

And look at it now...

Comparing Detroit with SV is mistake . Rather than
Manufacturing we are based in innovation . We in here are disrupting everything and making things better

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2282823

cloud15 says

Comparing Detroit with SV is mistake. than
Manufacturing we are based in innovation . We in here are disrupting everything and making things better

Manufacturing we are based in innovation . We in here are disrupting everything and making things better

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2282823

According to Kevin Boyle, a Northwestern University professor who has written extensively about his hometown, “It (Detroit in the 20s & 30s) was the Silicon Valley of America. It was home to the most innovative, cutting-edge and dominant industry in the world. The money here at that time was just staggering.”

And yet...

cloud15 says

Comparing Detroit with SV is mistake . Rather than

Manufacturing we are based in innovation . We in here are disrupting everything and making things better

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2282823

You're not disrupting anything, shithead. Writing code for apps that deliver coffee or allow you to post images of your dick to other teenagers isn't the same as building cars, ships, infrastructure or oil/energy facilities.

Facebooksux says

cloud15 says

Comparing Detroit with SV is mistake . Rather than

Manufacturing we are based in innovation . We in here are disrupting everything and making things better

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2282823

You're not disrupting anything, shithead. Writing code for apps that deliver coffee or allow you to post images of your dick to other teenagers isn't the same as building cars, ships, infrastructure or oil/energy facilities.

Investors disagree with you

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_24526510/silicon-valley-continues-outstrip-rest-country-tech-investing

cloud15 says

Investors disagree with you

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_24526510/silicon-valley-continues-outstrip-rest-country-tech-investing

They did in 1999 and 2007 as well.

Until they didn't

Also do remember that while everyone is becoming jobless by automation /new technology but we in SV are employed in the same technology. Someone is disrupting quest and labcorps model

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2282823-bloody-disruption-new-threat-to-quest-labcorp

JP Morgan's CEO thinks that big banks would be disrupted by someone in SV. we here are out to steal everyone's else's existing business models and are trying to make the world better.

There is this nice guy who did rental data analysis from craigslist data . Interesting read and you would notice that there are very few rentals available

http:/s.redfin.com/t5/Bay-Area/Southbay-rentals-Data-Analysis-from-Craigslist/td-p/492534

I'm visiting the peninsula for the first time ever in a couple weeks. I'll let you all know if I think its worth it or not.

I can tell you I was enamored with New York City(helps that my job pays nearly double there) and I would have zero issue living in New York on Manhattan....

I suspect SF will not seem worth it based on what I know and what my assumptions are.

LA isn't even in the same league. Theres still ok houses in the $350-500K price range in multiple LA communities that are nice enough(Lakewood, Gardena, Whittier, Covina, West Covina), and one bedrooms in nice areas as low as $900/mo.

Well see what I think of SF. I was in the Bay Area a couple times in the late 90's and was not impressed by SJ or Hayward(where I was staying). Berkley was ok, but insanely priced for what it was. Oakland was an absolute craphole.

cloud15 says

but the world has been , is and shall continue to do fine

You need to read some history, youngblood.
Or even some world news.

Prices in the Bay Area can never fall, because it is such a center of creativity - we all know that coders and founders of yet another mobile app to track bacterial infections or tire tread wear are absolutely the best people, who do so much to enrich our lives, being so very, very creative and special, as their parents and teachers told them over and over.

What could go wrong?

HydroCabron says

What could go wrong?

Ever heard of dot com bust?

Idiotic to compare dotcom with mobile which we hijacked fr
The rest of the world. Most of today's startups are already profitable by series-b.

Robert Sproul says

cloud15 says

but the world has been , is and shall continue to do fine

You need to read some history, youngblood.

Or even some world news.

You need to take faith that as human race evolves
We are inviting lesser and lesser self -inflicted troubles ( wars , world wars , recessions , pandemics etc )

And since we are so connected globally that we come out of these ditches sooner than before . Have faith on the systems of the world , the status quo will never change

BEG FOR SCRAPS OR STARVE!

OBEY. SUBMIT. CONFESS.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Where everyone is reduced to wet chunks by automatic weapons fire and no one gives a fuck.

Precisely what the founders had in mind at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia.

cloud15 says

Have faith on the systems of the world , the status quo will never change

The status quo is mechanized, industrial scale, murder for profit and power.
Yes, it is being made much more efficient by technology.
The self guided bullet promises to be very "disruptive tech".

cloud15 says

We are inviting lesser and lesser self -inflicted troubles ( wars , world wars , recessions , pandemics etc )

Didn't we just go through the greatest recession since 1929?

No pandemics? Ever hears if HIV?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_HIV/AIDS

No Wars? Did we not JUST spend $4-6T on Afghanistan and Iraq!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/study-iraq-afghan-war-costs-to-top-4-trillion/2013/03/28/b82a5dce-97ed-11e2-814b-063623d80a60_story.html

http://costsofwar.org/article/civilians-killed-and-wounded

http://time.com/45160/zero-us-fatalities-iraq-afghanistan-11-years/

New Renter says

Paris of the Midwest.

And look at it now...

Paris lost????

mmmarvel says

New Renter says

Paris of the Midwest.

And look at it now...

Paris lost????

Paris nuked!

@NewRenter .

Afghanistan and Iraq could be world wars in previous century but the exit was nuch softer .

This recession could have been apocalepytic but we came out with much less damage .

Try to see world positively .life is Good. To cheer you for the weekend try your income/net worth here

http://www.globalrichlist.com

cloud15 says

Afghanistan and Iraq could be world wars in previous century but the exit was nuch softer .

At least in the world wars there was an end and an obvious benefit. The most we can say about Afghanistan is we took out Osama Bin Laden -Several trillion dollars spent just to deliver one$.40 bullet.

We also came out on the moral high ground, not so much this time. The world perception of this country had been badly damaged.

cloud15 says

This recession could have been apocalepytic but we came out with much less damage .

To who? The 1% have done well enough but what of the rest of us?

cloud15 says

Try to see world positively .life is Good. To cheer you for the weekend try your income/net worth here

http://www.globalrichlist.com

WOW I'm richer than a Namibian bushman! That makes it all better!

New Renter says

but what of the rest of us?

It's a question of politics more than economics.

I was wondering about this:

can't we just outlaw automation?

or would the SCOTUS overturn for the city over-reaching its police powers, unfairly burdening the freedom of business owners to operate their businesses as they will.

Oh boy , why are you guys so much hopelessly pessimistic.
Everything is gluing to be all right. We'll have a 10-20% correction in couple of years in rents and prices . Everyone will win both bulls and bears

Bellingham Bill says

New Renter says

but what of the rest of us?

It's a question of politics more than economics.

I was wondering about this:

can't we just outlaw automation?

or would the SCOTUS overturn for the city over-reaching its police powers, unfairly burdening the freedom of business owners to operate their businesses as they will.

There would be no problem at all if the Fed and the government hadn't been actively destroying the purchasing power by counterfeiting and handing out the money to their wealthy shills. The ones who suffer most from QE are always the poorest that have no money to put in investments and that see their net cost (rent, food etc, not tax-deductible) going up rapidly until they have to go on the government dole. 2008 was the last time prices were somewhat reasonable and you all know it. There is no shortage of anything, only ZIRP which makes rolling over LARGE debt free and invites financial parasites with purchasing power and connections to invade every essential market.

^ now that's a pretty good non-sequitur

what has destroyed "purchasing power" more than anything is the rising cost of housing

commercial real estate has also been skyrocketing, so consumers are paying the idle parasitical rich on that end, too.

this goes beyond monetary policy, all economies evidence this trend of real estate choking the middle class and below. Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, Spain, etc. etc.

Japan back in the 1980s. Vietnam, China now.

What's amazing is my long Henry George quote above was written in the 1870s. Not much from that era is more applicable today!

"QE are always the poorest that have no money to put in investments and that see their net cost (rent, food etc, not tax-deductible) going up rapidly"

investment or the Fed boogeyman doesn't drive these costs up. The mere fact that we HAVE the money to buy them drives up the cost of housing, health care, food, etc.

Supply/Demand 101

laissez faire ain't going to fix things here, though of course "We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them”

Bellingham Bill says

commercial real estate has also been skyrocketing, so consumers are paying the idle parasitical rich on that end, too.

So why don't you support 2008 prices then, I remember negotiating rent back then and it was great. And it's not that those places would not have been filled eventually, just not by the richest person with the best credit score who got stick-saved by the Fed from being broke on their "investments", but by teachers and lower income service workers.

mell says

So why don't you support 2008 prices then

magical times, LOL

just not by the richest person with the best credit score who got stick-saved by the Fed

these people do not have a measurable footprint of occupancy in the SCV. They exist in the very nice areas of course, but in scarce proportion to all the IT zillionaires that have been created since 1995.

I don't oppose liquidating the rentiers, but not at the cost of everyone else, too, like how 1Q09 was shaping up to be until the Fed arrested the cascading collapse.

FIRE-sector BS certainly gave us the good times of 2004-2007, for what they were, but that was when the true big-ass mistakes were made.

We can both agree that "the System" has been running as a con-job since the 1990s and earlier.

Real estate is just one part of the machine, perhaps the biggest, perhaps not. Health care profits, deficit spending (deferred tax increases), and our persistent trade deficit are the other horsemen of course.

Bellingham Bill says

We can both agree that "the System" has been running as a con-job since the 1990s and earlier.

Real estate is just one part of the machine, perhaps the biggest, perhaps not. Health care profits, deficit spending (deferred tax increases), and our persistent trade deficit are the other horsemen of course.

Agreed.

Agreed

BadIdeaCA?

Yeah there's a website for that!

Probably has a whole team working around the clock to update it in real time.

dodgerfanjohn says

I'm visiting the peninsula for the first time ever in a couple weeks. I'll let you all know if I think its worth it or not.

I can tell you I was enamored with New York City(helps that my job pays nearly double there) and I would have zero issue living in New York on Manhattan....

I suspect SF will not seem worth it based on what I know and what my assumptions are.

LA isn't even in the same league. Theres still ok houses in the $350-500K price range in multiple LA communities that are nice enough(Lakewood, Gardena, Whittier, Covina, West Covina), and one bedrooms in nice areas as low as $900/mo.

Let me give you a primer then: the Peninsula is boring as hell. In fact quite a bit of the area is built on top of fill right next to a series of shallow marshes. The entire area is exceptionally hoity-toity and fake feeling. All of the "cute" little cities within are overly gentrified and probably more Southern Californian than Southern Californian. BTW, I've worked in the valley for almost 10 years.

The rest of the Bay Area is great. I don't live anywhere near the valley.

As far as LA, I've never understood why the tech biz didn't take off there. Its got better weather and plenty of young people too.

edvard2 says

The rest of the Bay Area is great.

Is it? I've lived here all my life and have never felt it to be astronomically more expensive than it is now.

One more company from Palo Alto shines

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-goldman-group-set-buy-050419532.html

Rent continue relentless rise? Says who? My AAPL tenant is moving out soon after 2.5 years. I'm going to jack up the rent 12% to 15% this time to bring it closer to the fair market. Gotta love renting to an "A" class tenant. They keep the place practically brand new.

E-man says

Rent continue relentless rise? Says who? My AAPL tenant is moving out soon after 2.5 years. I'm going to jack up the rent 12% to 15% this time to bring it closer to the fair market. Gotta love renting to an "A" class tenant. They keep the place practically brand new.

Tell us after you've a tenant. Fair market rent is lower than 2 months ago. Why is he moving out?

E-man says

Why sale...ever?

It would only make sense to sell when you can make bigger profit in bonds which for bay area is not going to happen for a while. For Arizona, last fall summer was a good opportunity to switch out of real estate into bond funds. Now the bond yields are too low.

Wishful thinking by NewRenter.

Bay area has a history of creating millionaires as evident from the house prices. And it has history of creating new products or disrupting existing business models , so what makes you think that it won't continue to do so. We here in SV are in the business of stealing everyone else's lunch and like honey bees we are all hanging out here. This place is going to be like Manhattan , where lucky few will rent to others

cloud15 says

This place is going to be like Manhattan

Manhattan is just 23 square miles and has an efficient public transportation system. Only SF and maybe Oakland is anywhere near that.

The rest of the SFBA is to be take your pick of Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Harlem.