patrick.net

Dan8267 says

And it won't have anything to do with the fraudulent "telepaths" or psychics scamming for money today or yesterday.

A true psychic will be an elite prop trader, not a 900 number.

The fact that there are traders who choose one Fibonacci number/level vs another, whereas the vast majority lose money 60% to 80% of the time, perhaps implies that some folks do have some intuitive ability over others.

I can already see that with our own in-house props, who basically, only use our software to get their setups in order. Whenever they pull the proverbial trigger for real, it's their own instincts which make the final call. More often than not, they're right.

Rin says

The fact that there are traders who choose one Fibonacci number/level vs another, whereas the vast majority lose money 60% to 80% of the time, perhaps implies that some folks do have some intuitive ability over others.

Intuition is very important in trading. Even if you are "100%" quant, you still need to "know" if your model is broken.

Rin says

I can already see that with our own in-house props, who basically, only use our software to get their setups in order. Whenever they pull the proverbial trigger for real, it's their own instincts which make the final call. More often than not, they're right.

Some people are really in tune with order flow and price action. Intuition beats all junk technical indicators, which are really a lagged view of the same price action anyway.

We are all quite intuitive. Some just choose to tune it out more so than others.

Fibonacci numbers (or whatever crap "idiot" waves) can still work if you can intuit the right perspective. But instinct is still the main P&L driver.

Peter P says

Fibonacci numbers (or whatever crap "idiot" waves) can still work if you can intuit the right perspective. But instinct is still the main P&L driver.

All these tools, at least from my firm's perspective is simply to assigned some risk coefficient. Ultimately, we knew that we needed some talented prop traders, to bring home the actual bacon.

The real-time risk assessment model is more a part of our sales/BS artistry motif for portfolio managers and such.

Of course, for a while there, it was also assigning successful trades but that's was a short lived phenomena. We were aware of that fact, ahead of time.

zzyzzx says

Two people are thinking "Obama sucks" at the same time and it's considered a telepathy experiment now?

Double telepathy! I knew you were gunna say that.

Rin says

The real-time risk assessment model is more a part of our sales/BS artistry motif for portfolio managers and such.

Do you guys use metrics like Sharpe-ratio or Sortino-ratio?

Peter P says

Rin says

The real-time risk assessment model is more a part of our sales/BS artistry motif for portfolio managers and such.

Do you guys use metrics like Sharpe-ratio or Sortino-ratio?

Not for real-time stuff. Those are reports for portfolio managers, after the fact.

The real-time stuff is a type of trade secret which mixes some phase boundary notions (out of applied chemistry) and fuzzy controller theory.

The props use that, mainly to split up their order sizes and so-forth. Ultimately, they only rely on themselves for trading.

Rin says

The real-time stuff is a type of trade secret which mixes some phase boundary notions (out of applied chemistry) and fuzzy controller theory.

I see. Order-sizing is just as important anyway. :-)

Peter P says

Rin says

The real-time stuff is a type of trade secret which mixes some phase boundary notions (out of applied chemistry) and fuzzy controller theory.

I see. Order-sizing is just as important anyway. :-)

Sometimes, it can be used to determine an exact sort of trade but as time went by, it was better to limit its use for risk assessment. Of course, when this company first started, it was very successful in giving good trading signals. Today, it's been parred back a lot.

Rin says

Of course, when this company first started, it was very successful in giving good trading signals. Today, it's been parred back a lot.

Almost all mechanical trading systems break over time. The market is very good at finding relative efficiency.

In the end, it still takes an intuitive trader to make money.

The Original Bankster says

New Renter says

I hate to break it to you but those voices in your head is not telepathy.

I would have guessed you would have used this comment to establish that I was insane or mentally deficient somehow.

The fact is there's a lot more to who we are than is accepted by science. I've witnessed telepathy many times.

I thin we're all witnessing something here:

The Original Bankster says

The fact is there's a lot more to who we are than is accepted by science. I've witnessed telepathy many times.

You should drive over to Sedona. That environment is very conducive to new experiences.

Peter P says

The Original Bankster says

The fact is there's a lot more to who we are than is accepted by science. I've witnessed telepathy many times.

You should drive over to Sedona. That environment is very conducive to new experiences.

Don't forget to pack your "telepathy" kit:

Rin says

A true psychic will be an elite prop trader, not a 900 number.

A true psychic would not waste his times on stock when lottery tickets offer a 1,000,000,000% return.

Dan8267 says

Rin says

A true psychic will be an elite prop trader, not a 900 number.

A true psychic would not waste his times on stock when lottery tickets offer a 1,000,000,000% return.

Numbers are not intuitive to psychics because abstract concepts have little significance in the collective unconscious.

hah, now im a hippy.

anyone who lived a more natural lifestyle not filled with perversion and pursuit of money knows this. it's these unnatural modes of existence that blot out our natural abilities.

what's interesting is the internet has somewhat atrophied our basic abilities in this dept. the more people rely on it for information, the more insane we will become.

Peter P says

Dan8267 says

Rin says

A true psychic will be an elite prop trader, not a 900 number.

A true psychic would not waste his times on stock when lottery tickets offer a 1,000,000,000% return.

Numbers are not intuitive to psychics because abstract concepts have little significance in the collective unconscious.

I believe that with each passing number, the hit ratio goes down, till the point that a 6 digit lotto becomes nearly impossible.

With trading systems, what's more important are the false positives (or conversely, the negatives). A good psychic "simply" needs to find those and then, he'll be on the winning side more frequently than the losing one and thus, be in the positive for the long run.

Statistically speaking, this phenomena is quite rare but the fact that some traders have it, gives me some idea that some sort of intuitive phenomena is going on. Perhaps this can be explained by their unconscious mind, picking up on not-so-obvious cues over time but it's strange to see that a certain number of traders have this talent, regardless of the so-called time in the pit, whereas others, are always depended upon some insider information (which is basically illegal)

The Original Bankster says

hah, now im a hippy.

Get a haircut! And a bath!

The Original Bankster says

anyone who lived a more natural lifestyle not filled with perversion and pursuit of money knows this. it's these unnatural modes of existence that blot out our natural abilities.

I think he's talking to you Rin.

The Original Bankster says

what's interesting is the internet has somewhat atrophied our basic abilities in this dept. the more people rely on it for information, the more insane we will become.

I'm sure your ancestors were complaining about how the newfangled abacus was causing the atrophy of people's natural ability to do math too.

New Renter says

The Original Bankster says

anyone who lived a more natural lifestyle not filled with perversion and pursuit of money knows this. it's these unnatural modes of existence that blot out our natural abilities.

I think he's talking to you Rin.

He's talking about my future lifestyle. At present, I can't spend 100% of my time in downtown Montreal.

I've been beaming out mental messages for many years now. Nothing happening. Take my sample size of 1 as proof that telepathy don't work. Cash does though.

Howdy There says

Take my sample size of 1 as proof that telepathy don't work. Cash does though

Cash always works.

Here's my observation of so-called psychic phenomena ... a trader asks us to run the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) through our software kit, which is a big correlation machine.

When it's done, his response is simply ... 'Still, too much noise and he stops the trade or *ok*, it's clear, let's take this one.' This person is right about 70% of the time. When I'd factored out the trend analysis, his ratio is still over 60%. At best, by chance, he shouldn't be higher than 48% to 52%

'Still, too much noise and he stops the trade or *ok*, it's clear, let's take this one.'

I have a coin too. Shall I flip it?

Howdy There says

'Still, too much noise and he stops the trade or *ok*, it's clear, let's take this one.'

I have a coin too. Shall I flip it?

If it gets you from 60% to 70% of accurate results, then sure, why not?

I suspect that like the rest of us, you'll be converging upon 50% in no time.

If someone has a track record over 50% predicting the future, then odds are they have over 50% of being wrong going forward. I anticipate a 50% chance of being proven wrong on this one, with a +or- of 10%.

Howdy There says

If someone has a track record over 50% predicting the future, then odds are they have over 50% of being wrong going forward. I anticipate a 50% chance of being proven wrong on this one, with a +or- of 10%.

Considering that he's been paid 8 figures for two years, tells me that his hit ratio is pretty solid.

Rin says

Considering that he's been paid 8 figures for two years, tells me that his hit ratio is pretty solid.

All past tense stuff. Going forward, he won't give a shit because he's made over 20 mil. His ratio is destined to crash due to righteous apathy.

Howdy There says

Rin says

Considering that he's been paid 8 figures for two years, tells me that his hit ratio is pretty solid.

All past tense stuff. Going forward, he won't give a shit because he's made over 20 mil. His ratio is destined to crash due to righteous apathy.

Well ... I think he wants to get out with $100M+ and the current partners in this firm will make sure that that happens, with equity sharing. I'll be out by then.

its like this, ever meet those people who are always reading health literature? every month they have some food item that they must consume mass quantities of. Like, Coconut Oil, they must consume 4 pounds of coconut oil a day or they will die. But they didnt require it before, suddenly- they do.

so what does this say? people believe science even though it is continually revising itself, often completely REVERSING it's claims, and this happens so quickly these days science is becoming less believable on the whole. For instance eating a low fat diet was thought to be great for your heart, later we found out it's not good for your health at all.

so back to things like telepathy, everyone does it all the time, some people just have a cleaner system and can pick it up easier. There's more to it, much I don't even know at all, but I know it's real, and people have known it's real for a long time. Only recently did we decide this was nonsense simply because our latest devices can't measure it successfully. So if you want to eat three gallons of coconut oil because these people say so, go for it.

I am glad there is no telepathy. Otherwise, I would be beaten and imprisoned on a daily basis.

New Renter says

Don't forget to pack your "telepathy" kit:

ive used psychedelics before but dont do any drugs at all anymore.

psychedelics are interesting because they activate parts of your mind that normally arent activated. if you do them too much it can be very damaging, in the same way that alcohol effects your liver, psychedelics will have similar effects except much worse.

of course they are popular in a place like San Francisco where the people are so screwed up they can't reach those parts of their mind naturally.

Ceffer says

I am glad there is no telepathy. Otherwise, I would be beaten and imprisoned on a daily basis.

Did you just confess to the thought police?

Ceffer says

I am glad there is no telepathy. Otherwise, I would be beaten and imprisoned on a daily basis.

ppl can pick up your crazy negative thoughts, they just pretend they didn't, or subconsciously block it. We get this all the time, some people just creep you out- this is why.

The Original Bankster says

Ceffer says

I am glad there is no telepathy. Otherwise, I would be beaten and imprisoned on a daily basis.

ppl can pick up your crazy negative thoughts, they just pretend they didn't, or subconsciously block it. We get this all the time, some people just creep you out- this is why.

Well said. Some call it aura or chakra but it is all intuitive.

Peter P says

Well said. Some call it aura or chakra but it is all intuitive.

chakras are a real thing, but ppl contort this knowledge quite a bit. To get to the level where this knowledge is useful you need to do a lot of work.

The Original Bankster says

Peter P says

Well said. Some call it aura or chakra but it is all intuitive.

chakras are a real thing, but ppl contort this knowledge quite a bit. To get to the level where this knowledge is useful you need to do a lot of work.

Of course it takes work, although one can see quick results just from listening to his inner voice. Emotions like greed and fear are real enemies to this process.

Peter P says

Emotions like greed and fear are real enemies to this process.

this is why the yogis always say that its dangerous to do certain things at certain stages. the first thing required is removing those sorts of emotions. there's enormous energy in every person, so you have to make sure the machine is in working order before you turn on the power. i believe mostly in what yogis teach, reincarnation, etc.

most ppl are not at the stage where this information is useful so they will ignore it or block it, doesn't matter to me.

its important not to get carried away with career and money otherwise you ignore the important things.

The Original Bankster says

its important not to get carried away with career and money otherwise you ignore the important things.

Very true. In fact, both career and money may even suffer.

The Original Bankster says

Peter P says

Well said. Some call it aura or chakra but it is all intuitive.

chakras are a real thing, but ppl contort this knowledge quite a bit. To get to the level where this knowledge is useful you need to do a lot of work.

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With the Flaska bottle, we bring the vibrational structure of water closer to the structure of spring water, i.e. water in its natural environment - this is called water structuring. Using TPS (technology of programming silicon), a vibrational programme consisting of various kinds of information from nature is imprinted into the glass.

And if you believe this I have a bridge to sell you too!

what does that have to do with chakras?

The Original Bankster says

i believe mostly in what yogis teach, reincarnation, etc.

TOB's website link communicates what he is destined to be reincarnated as. It's a telepathic warning from his future self, but he Ignores the message.