patrick.net

indigenous says

Isn't Fidel long in the tooth? Admittedly they are both from the same party.

Castro Sec. of the HUD

Democrats for once thinking long term here with the VP pick

Clinton is aged no need for experience pick and their isn't a Dem out there that could push a state for them.

Castro is young and Hispanic. 90% of the labor force growth and future new voting block are going to be Hispanic.

It would be a brilliant long term pay and will make it harder for Bernie to run against Clinton in 2020 which I expect to happen.

Ironman says

I can't believe a smart guy like you who understands numbers would actually make a statement like that

Trump Popular Vote Total - 10,644,396

Clinton Popular Vote Total 12,432,259

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Logan Mohtashami says

Trump Popular Vote Total - 10,644,396

Clinton Popular Vote Total 12,432,259

Trump - 3,5,7 way race until after last night's primary.
Clinton - 2 way race against a backbencher Socialist from one of the most rural and least populated states, who just beat her in another surprise victory.

If it had just been Trump vs. Cruz since March's Super Tuesday, Trump would probably surpass Hillary in votes.

thunderlips11 says

Trump would probably surpass Hillary in votes.

That is a variable that isn't part of the equation, the thesis was that Clinton has more votes than Trump.

What you can say, is that in the Primary, Republicans came out more to vote than Democrats

In either case, Primary voting is 100-120 million less votes.

The general is a much bigger platform that favors Dems

Mind that

Republicans have lost 5 out of the last 6 even with a favorable demographic profile and now they have a candidate that the party since I have been following can't fully get 100% behind

So, the only other thesis that gives Trump any kind of remote chance is...

Bernie Sanders, if Bernie's peeps don't come out to vote for Clinton, that levels the general election play ground

If the Dems are full force against a fractured Republican Party... that's not a winning ticket

Have to remember, Trump isn't a conservative, he is running as Republican. Many Americans who are conservative, can never vote for Trump.

I am giving you guys the number data runs, it's early, but if you want to win the general election, there are rules, mathematical rules that can bend but not break

:-)

Logan Mohtashami says

That is a variable that isn't part of the equation, the thesis was that Clinton has more votes than Trump.

She does. But if Biden or Warren or anybody else ran and it was a 3-way, she'd have way less than 12+M votes herself.

BTW, the very low democratic turnout, even with the kids coming out for Sanders, does not bode well for the Democrats.

Polls are polls, but they don't measure enthusiasm. As I said, somebody might say they hate Trump and love Hillary b/c all their Admin pals in the School Office agree.

Whether that somebody actually votes instead of buying Hagen Daas on the way home for another night with Sex in the City reruns with Fluffy the Cat at her side, that's another thing altogether.

The biggest trend right now is two-term altering party Presidencies, since 1992 and actually, with only a couple of exceptions (Carter, Bush the Elder) since 1952.

Hillary is going down. Any other dem candidate would have had an easier time, but she has way too dirty of a past to leave anything but the taste of shit in voters mouths when it's bought to light.
A few catchy memes about the Clinton foundation should do it.
Like the one I saw today: the only Clinton I'd want for president is George!

The orange colostomy bag couldn't pull higher numbers running against Ted Cruz, John "Charisma" Kasich, and Lil' Marco.

It's testament to Trump's distinctly pungent olfactory signature that Cruz - a man with the mass appeal of a box of fresh bug parts - lasted as far as Indiana.

Hillary pulled more votes running against stronger competition.

Quigley says

Like the one I saw today: the only Clinton I'd want for president is George!

Yup sort of like I would rather be ruled by the 1st 2000 names in the Boston phone book than 2000 names from Harvard.

Unfortunately I'm not sure the democrats share your opinion?

HydroCabron says

The orange colostomy bag couldn't pull higher numbers running against Ted Cruz, John "Charisma" Kasich, and Lil' Marco.

Right, because winning 3-way races, nevermind 5,6,7+ way races by more than 2-3% isn't considered a big win under any other circumstances... Nobody said Clinton didn't win big when he beat Bush the Elder by 6% in a three way race - the opposite, it was called a great victory.

New Hampshire with 35%+ of the vote in an 8 way race, more than double the nearest competitor (Kasich).
South Carolina by 10% in a 6 way race, about half again more than his nearest competitor (Cruz).
Nevada by 46% of the vote in a 5 way race, again more than double the nearest competitor (Cruz).
Deep South Alabama and Mississippi by 20% and 10% respectively.

I won't even get into the Northeast.

Other than the Midwest and Cruz' own Texas, Trump has won by greater than 3-4%, usually by double digits, in most of the 3-5 person races. Even beat a Senator in his own State (Rubio, Florida) by almost 20 pts.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_republican_nomination_map.html

All this, I might ad, in the face of record spending on Negative Ads, half of it directed at one candidate alone.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/12/us/politics/donald-trump-negative-ads.html

Only when Trump wins 3-5-7 way races by more than a few points, is it so blithely dismissed.

thunderlips11 says

BTW, the very low democratic turnout, even with the kids coming out for Sanders, does not bode well for the Democrats.

As long as Bernie's people come out for Clinton she should win barring anything major happening.

I am telling you guys this, I have never seen a Republican candidate where so many Republicans would never vote for ever in their life because of what Trump has said.

A basic rule of thumb of general, you have to united the base. Trump pulled off a Bill the Butcher run on Republicans which is a solid move for the Tea Party but with that style comes consequences.

First and most important task is to try somehow to unite the base because in a general election, you need the full backing of your entire party. All I saw on T.V. yesterday were many Republicans come on national T.V. and say no way they will support Trump.

Logan Mohtashami says

All I saw on T.V. yesterday were many Republicans come on national T.V. and say no way they will support Trump.

In the case of Bush that is probably a good thing.

No doubt he is going to have to come more to the center which will piss off some of the Pat netters.

Anecdotally I hear Bernie supporters are more likely to go with Clinton as the lesser of two evils.

indigenous says

In the case of Bush that is probably a good thing.

Trump can't be any more popular with the Tea Party Base but that's not going to work in a general election

Too many Republicans that won't vote because they're old school conservatives and his campaign is an abomination to the world conservative.

Irony of this is that this race is against Clinton, and even that won't matter because of how Trump has representative himself.

It will be interesting to see what Cruz does because he still has a decent Tea Party following.

However, Trump called his wife ugly basically and said his dad was part of the crew that killed Kennedy. If someone came after my family that way, no way under any circumstance I am backing that guy up into anything.

So, while Trumps tactic worked in primary.

KEY:---> He needs to unite the party or else it won't happen, it will be a landslide to the point they loose senate seats. Also, if he doesn't get the backing of people he can't go off on them either.

You're out of the fighting pits and into the arena

Similar things could be said about Hillary by the democrats.

Conservatives may not support Trump, but he is the lesser of two evils in their mind and will vote for him. IOW the bible thumpers will pick Trump over Hillary.

indigenous says

Similar things could be said about Hillary by the democrats

Clinton has issues with the far left progressives ( White Liberals) who are educated but don't really like capitalism even though they live in their cushy homes because of it.

That's a different problem than what Trump has.

However, to your point. If Bernie's people don't back Clinton up, then Trump is in play for the White House for sure

Logan Mohtashami says

If Bernie's people don't back Clinton up, then Trump is in play for the White House for sure

That appears to be the case to me.

And I hope I'm wrong.

OTOH how much could Trump really change the establishment? Clinton will continue the rot increasing the rate of the decline and probably creating more war.

indigenous says

Trump really change the establishment

As a Republican, I see a Trump costing the Republican Senate Seats.

Again, lets see how he acts from now until the convention in terms of trying to get the party to be united.

When you spill blood, you can't put that back in.

Win many battles but lose the war... my contention with my own party for years is that they almost act like they know they can't win a general election anymore but want congressional power. That kind of makes sense if you think about it.

However, Trump can even derail that, that right there is why I think some Republicans are scared and want to distance away from him.

The demographic map looks good for democrats going out for the next 50 years.

What is clear to me

No place for a Non Religious Middle Eastern Republican with a Scottish name :-)

In any case we will be fine because this is America! :-)

Lincoln was no conservative.

Logan Mohtashami says

In any case we will be fine because this is America! :-)

You mean this is the home of the reserve currency of the world. With better demographics than the others.

Clinton has issues with the far left progressives ( White Liberals) who are educated but don't really like capitalism even though they live in their cushy homes because of it.

------------

Now thats fucking funny. You're in lala land

indigenous says

You mean this is the home of the reserve currency of the world. With better demographics than the others.

Yes, Yes and still... We are Americans.. Americans don't beg.... we don't cry like little babies, we fight... that will always give us the edge... No Country for sissy people..

Of course they're cry babies of the left and right ... but they're still a small portion of the populous

But yes Demographics, the main thing that gave us a growth rut in this cycle will change soon and the entire world will be envious of our economics, dollar and demographics.

We own this world not the other way around!

errc says

Now thats fucking funny. You're in lala land

Bernie can't get the Black vote for a reason, outside of young kids and they should vote for Bernie, it's healthy to have a progressive out there for the kids to vote on

Registered Voters are usually homeowners 78% in 2012 election

But the real left people I deal with MMT and that group... Just cry every day about capitalism and how evil Corporations are ... Oh wait.. that's Bernie s line as well

When you want to be a real man, then you know crying like a little baby make you look soft... not what men do... what babies do

This is why Bernie can't get a revolution, we still have many men in this country who know what it is to be a man.

Like I have said, big place in my heart for Bernie... but... that act gets old... He is no socialist, if anything the real hard left where mad that he was actually paying for stuff.

That's why I like Bernie.. he rejected the MMT ....

Clap
Clap
Clap

Logan Mohtashami says

we fight... that will always give us the edge

So you are a neocon then?

Logan Mohtashami says

But the real left people I deal with MMT and that group

MMT is left? since when?

Trump has a terrible image problem with the liberal progressives who control the media, the PC police, and the militant SJW crowd. This means that to openly support him is hazardous to ones own image both socially and perhaps professionally. This means that the people for whom his message resonates aren't bring vocal about it, at least not openly. People who are tired of liberal policies, ObamaCare, the increasingly insane LGBT agenda, importing Muslims (and putting them in charge of national security), letting illegals stream in to ruin neighborhoods, cause crime, displace American workers, and screw up our social programs...the people who are against these things and also want an end to the ruinous free trade policies of the Clintons, these people are going to vote Trump.

What about the republicans who say never trump? Excepting the true elites, they will get to that voting booth and know they can't vote for the Hildabitch and her silly stupid policies. And then there are the gun owners: Hillary would be the most anti-second ammendment POTUS ever! Gun owners will be voting for Trump.

The GOP politicians, celebrities, and figureheads coming out now against Trump are just playing politics. You don't want to be for anything controversial as a politician, and Trump defines controversy. These politicians aren't representative of the Republican Party as a whole; they're just making some political hay. It means nothing.

When voters get into that private little booth, they will be pulling the orange handle, not the blue one.

Like I said, you are in lala land

Real men,,, lol. Who are your real men voting for?

indigenous says

So you are a neocon then?

Being a neocon has nothing to do with what I said. Men, get up and the work to raise their families, that's what Men do.

They don't spend their time social media crying about how entitled they're or how awful life is

Men push forward... Now America has a great educated female class as well

My Lord we kick ass in this country... All those America Empire is about to fall people... they HATE US... as they should because they beg and cry everyday. Not what Americans do...

errc says

Real men,,, lol. Who are your real men voting for?

The question should be ... is there anyone that is out there for the Cry baby nation people to vote for....

No one, Not Sanders, Not Clinton, Not Trump, Not Cruz....

They all believe you have to earn it...

As long as we have that in our country, we will be fine...

Logan Mohtashami says

Being a neocon has nothing to do with what I said. Men, get up and the work to raise their families, that's what Men do.

They don't spend their time social media crying about how entitled they're or how awful life is

Men push forward... Now America has a great educated female class as well

My Lord we kick ass in this country... All those America Empire is about to fall people... they HATE US... as they should because they beg and cry everyday. Not what Americans do...

Talk like that will not get you a ticket to Hillary's inaugural ball. Who are you to speak against years of government trope?

indigenous says

Talk like that will not get you a ticket to Hillary's inaugural ball

It's not about Clinton, Sanders, Trump, Cruz or anyone else

This is a American story, and we kick ass a country! Because we don't beg

Logan Mohtashami says

This is a American story, and we kick ass a country! Because we don't beg

Ok, it would just be a lot easier to believe if we not have SJWs and Sharptons and entitled Millennials and and and.

indigenous says

entitled Millennials

They're kids, they will learn once they grow up and yes those in college, my lord they were raised a bit too soft for my taste.

However, unless you're Peter Pan... you're going to grow up.... They will be fine :-)

Nice cop out Nancy mushmoshmati

Real men vote for Bernie Sanders, because we want to unleash the real power of our market economy. Sissies like you in suits just talk nonsense about real men lmao.

Real men understand that Bernie is offering to knock down the barriers that are hampering our economy, the dumb ass jackboots harassing people for The State, the health insurance leeches feasting on the government forced rent tap, and the rest of the rotten rentier economy. We want to put money back where it belongs, in the hands of the people that do the labor that produces all the wealth, so that they can expand our customer base

Logan Mohtashami says

However, unless you're Peter Pan... you're going to grow up.... They will be fine :-)

IMO the demographics you speak of are going to be Mexican. Because they are willing to work, no worries.

errc says

Real men understand that Bernie is offering to knock down the barriers that are hampering our economy, the dumb ass jackboots harassing people for The State, the health insurance leeches feasting on the government forced rent tap, and the rest of the rotten rentier economy. We want to put money back where it belongs, in the hands of the people that do the labor that produces all the wealth, so that they can expand our customer base

indigenous says

IMO the demographics you speak of are going to be Mexican. Because they are willing to work, no worries.

90% of the labor force growth in America in the future come from Hispanics if it wasn't for them we would look like Japan.

As always Demographics is key.... we have it better than any major economy

Japan and Germany are old

So all you have is troll tactics. Too scared a/o stupid to reply so you post a picture. What is this 2nd grade "how to act like a succesful person". We succesful folk dont need an infographic to tell us how to be succesful. Thats for failed LOSERS!

errc says

Real men vote for Bernie Sanders, because we want to unleash the real power of our market economy.

See that right there... you're not in the sissy cry baby nation camp. You believe people have to earn it too.
You have gradutate high school, if you can, go to college to educated yourself, if you can't go to college, then get a skill set that can make money

You're not in the basic income, federal debt provided state and city jobs to pick up trash group...

You're in the... you have to earn it camp

:-)

That extreme MMT camp is very very small, because most Americans left and right believe still in the thesis that you have to work... this is why we kick ass a country and why even high school drop outs can get jobs here

Why we have Job opening over 5.4 million, higher than total population of other countries

errc says

So all you have is troll tactics. Too scared a/o stupid to reply so you post a picture. What is this 2nd grade "how to act like a succesful person". We succesful folk dont need an infographic to tell us how to be succesful. Thats for failed LOSERS!

Your passion is admirable

Logan Mohtashami says

As a Republican, I see a Trump costing the Republican Senate Seats.

That's a great thing.

I don't think it has really sank in yet, that they some 38% or so of the American voting public that has been disenfranchised and didn't have a single voice.
I what the Republican party will become. Gone are the days of the Left lamenting and bemoaning about how the Republicans are religious right-wing zealots, and gone are the days where republicans are the party of greed and corporate corruption. The Democrats already took that away from them anyway. Trump wasn't even Republican, he's always ran or considered running on an Independent ticket. The Republicans brought this upon them selves by meddling with his intentional bid in 2012, but bribing him not to run. They offered him a spot on 2016 ticket.
Trump knew what a yyyyyyyyyyyyyuge opportunity that was. And he did his homework on populist issues(And I for one, I'm glad that somebody did) and he slayed them for his effort he put his upfront effort.

The typical Republicans you guys normally think of. Are the butt hurt Cruz supporters, who were Rubio supporters before, that and Rand Paul supporters before that, and Jeb Supporters since the day they were born. Those folks will now be the lunatic Independent fringe. The Republicans are going to be the sensible party.
That is centered Right skewed just a little to the Left, don't have a stance on any issue until they've heard all of the facts.
That's what the Republican party has become.

I've said all along, that there are going to be some new faces, by next mid term elections. There's going to be a mass exit from Congress, those crooks, and thieves didn't sign up to be no goddamned Public servant. We're going to start seeing more Sarah Palins and Donald Trump on the republican side getting elected. People that just came out of no where, if not for Trump would have never been on the radar of laughed off. We're going to be seeing less CPAC money spent on trying to destroy candidates. We're going to see less media manipulations of the elections. This has costed them tens of millions of viewers and cable subscribers. We're going to need new Actors in Hollywood when this is over. Most proved them selves to be fascist commie propaganda film Actorvists.

And don't kid your self. Clinton is going to kill the Democrat party stealing delegates and the election from Sanders before this is over. Just like trying to stop Trump killed the Republican party.
The Democrat convention is the one that is going to have a bloody riot. The Liberals have proved them selves to be the violent rabble. They are going the burn the S#it down, if Hillary get's nominated.

This has been a thrill ride, the best thing on TV in decades. I tell ya!

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/05/05/paul-nehlen-paul-ryan-sold-his-vote-i-absolutely-believe-that/

House Speaker Paul Ryans Wisconsin primary opponent Paul Nehlen tells Breitbart News Daily SiriusXM host Stephen K. Bannon today that he absolutely believes Paul Ryan “sold his vote” to support so called trade deals that Nehlen says are damaging to America.

Tenpoundbass says

This has been a thrill ride, the best thing on TV in decades. I tell ya!

Once the General Starts, Obama will back up Clinton, He is very popular and the Bernie people will have to make a choice between Clinton and Trump.

See, I don't have to vote for Trump because my non vote just means I am voting for Clinton over Trump.

However, Bernie people, they would have to make a choice at some point,

Is this Nader 2 on steroids .... Some won't and some will vote for Clinton

So far that is the biggest variable that I can't get a real number on yet

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
Happy #CincoDeMayo! The best taco bowls are made in Trump Tower Grill. I love Hispanics! https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/posts/10157008375200725:0 …

I will give Trump this, he is a entertainer with products

In a primary, no support from Bush 41 & 43 doesn't matter.

Here is where Trump has a point in ripping apart the IRAQ war and the fear of debt for growth... about the 2 things I do agree with him