patrick.net

You know the polls are BS because they go up and down 5 pts every other week - except the LA Times poll, which is run by statisticians whose reputation is on the line for getting it right. They're not calling people on land lines, and they're taking the same sample of voters that represent certain segments and calling them over and over again.

Also, notice the Media isn't discussing Social Media this year. They've done that the last 2-3 elections. "We see Ignatz is getting more positive mentions in social media than Roscoe!" What happened? They know Trump, without putting down a single nickel for posts, is kicking the crap out of the handful of Hillary supporters and her paid CTR trolls. He's got a massive army of Tech Savvy underemployed young people vetting every media hoax and memeing their asses off.

Bill Richardson is a dick. We need a "Catholic Spring". Needy Latinos. We tricked Bernie on Superdelegate "Reform", that sucker, but we got his endorsement.

Imagine if Manafort or Conway or Cohen said these things, the media would scream for blood.

Lets not get all crazy here and start confusing Clinton voters, as Liberals

You cannot support Clinton and be a Liberal. They're polar opposites

errc says

They're polar opposites

Liberals are bipolar baboons, that feel what ever whims the latest social movement tells them.
They have taken us full circle from don't pick on people weaker than you, to victimize everything. While promoting shock politics for the vote.
Let's face it this batch of Liberals breathed life back into the Conservative movement, and brought it back from the dead.

Which is still more Liberal than the Jihad bullshit that the Liberals are trying to import for votes.They are gullible dangerous Bipolar Baboons like that.

Take Cletus sister here for example

http://www.breitbart.com/milo/2016/10/18/clemson-anti-milo-protester-would-donate-bail-to-anyone-who-put-a-bullet-in-milos-head/

She can "Go Fund Me" her way to a better tomorrow, she can donaate a few bucks to some Gullible Bipolar Baboon's million dollar bail.

This picture was taken in Maryland:

So confident don't even need this guy anymore. And they are feeling great about the debate.

Even in Minnesota, Trump wins:
http://www.wctrib.com/news/local/4144816-trump-comes-out-ahead-willmar-high-school-mock-election

WILLMAR — Donald Trump got the most votes in a mock presidential election Tuesday at Willmar Senior High School, but Hillary Clinton was fewer than 30 votes behind.

About 40 percent of the school's 1,200 students participated in the election, part of a first-ever statewide mock election in the state's high schools.

During the school's four lunch periods, 514 students cast ballots. Trump was at the top with 207 votes, to Clinton's 179 votes. Others receiving votes included 41 for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 17 for Dan Vacek, the candidate for the Legal Marijuana Now Party. Thirty-six ballots had write-in votes, and all other candidates on the ballot polled in single digits.

With help of the school's Key Club, sponsored by Kiwanis in Willmar, the polling station was organized to mimic the system adult voters will use Nov. 8.

http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/poll-trump-dominates-with-generation-z/

Poll: Trump Dominates with Generation Z

First-time voters and high schoolers too young to cast ballots overwhelmingly go GOP

The survey of high school students across the country, a joint project of My College Options and the Hispanic Heritage Foundation, indicates that members of the so-called Generation Z have markedly different political views than the slightly older, famously left-leaning millennials.

Among those old enough to vote for the first time in next month’s election, Trump leads Clinton 46 percent to 31 percent. Another 11 percent picked a third-party candidate, while 6 percent said they would write in a candidate. Some 54,000 students in 47 states have filled out paper ballots distributed in schools, and organizers said they expect a total of 100,000 by the time they finish polling.

“Our findings shocked us and clearly state that the Trump effect was not only felt by adults and can have an impact going forward with Generation Z,” Hispanic Heritage Foundation President Jose Antonio Tijerino said in a prepared statement. “It’s also an important message that youth can’t be taken for granted as to how they lean politically by either side of the aisle.”

The first-time voters are an overwhelmingly pessimistic lot — just 11 percent say the country is moving in a positive direction, while 56 percent disagreed. Their top issue is the economy, followed by education, gun rights, and health care.

Trump also was the top choice of the entire group, ages 14 through 18. He won support from 34 percent, compared with 20 percent of Clinton. Third-party and write-in candidates got 13 percent, while nearly a third said they would not vote if they had the chance. While Trump struggles mightily with female voters in the electorate, among high school respondents, Trump leads with both genders.

Broken down by state, Trump was the top choice of youth in 31 states. Clinton was first in only one — Louisiana. In the rest of the states surveyed, the top choice was “I would choose not to vote in this election.”

Young voters 18 to say 22 or so have gotten a lot more wiser, conservative than those 5 or more years older than them.

They don't do as much stupid crap nor did they ever. Those 6 years older or more than they are were malleable reactive fools. They elected Obama twice.

http://archive.is/aRtdC

A New York Times Upshot/Siena poll released Sunday is consistent with that trend: It gives Mr. Trump a four-point lead in Florida, 46 percent to 42 percent.

Fuck Yeah!

Daddy says z'ers see Syrian refugees piling on top of illegal Mexicans to sop up whatever meager jobs exist. They want all of them OUT!
zzyzzx is deplorable says

Young voters 18 to say 22 or so have gotten a lot more wiser, conservative than those 5 or more years older than them.

Trump now up by 2 points in NH:
https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/793102715916316672

New Hampshire, Journal Poll:
Trump 45 (+2)
Clinton 43
Johnson 4
Stein 2

Uh oh..... :)

Trump up by 7 points in NC:
http://www.wral.com/wral-poll-trump-charges-ahead-in-nc/16183780/

Previous result: What is your political affiliation?
Registered Republican
31%
Registered Democrat
35%
Registered other political party
2%
Unaffiliated
31%
Not registered
3%
zzyzzx is deplorable says

Trump up by 7 points in NC:

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Trump up by 7 points in NC:

The new bellweather....... right?

On the ropes or on the pole?

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/793814816313966592

Florida:
Trump 48 (+4)
Clinton 44
Johnson 2

Ohio:
Trump 49% (+5)
Clinton 44%
Johnson 2

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/02/outlier-or-harbinger-pennsylvania-poll-shows-trump-leads-by-one-percent/

Pennsylvania Poll Shows Trump Up by One Percent

Whoa, Trump winning Virginia would mean it's over for real.

https://asweetdoseofreality.com/2016/11/02/hillary-camp-in-full-panic-mode-as-early-black-voter-turnout-plunges-in-key-swing-states/

Well, early voting data out of some key swing states seems to reveal that, in fact, black voter turnout is reverting back to pre-Obama levels, which is a terrible sign for team Hillary. According to Old North State Politics, early voting data out of North Carolina suggests that black voter turnout is down roughly 7 points, as a percent of the overall electorate versus 2012, implying that cumulative black votes are down around 16%.

As a reminder, Mitt Romney won North Carolina in 2012 by slightly over 2 points. Given that black voters usually favor democrats by 80-90%, simple math implies that a 7-point reduction in blacks as a percentage of the overall electorate would hurt Hillary by roughly 6 points versus the 2012 results.

Meanwhile, the outlook is even more telling in Florida as black composition of early votes is down 9.5 points versus 2012.

According to a recent article by Politico, in 2008 and 2012, Obama received 95% of the 1.7mm votes cast by black voters in Florida. Given that, simple math would imply that a 9.5-point reduction in blacks as a percentage of the overall electorate would hurt Hillary by roughly 9 points, versus the 2012 results, which is news for a state that Obama narrowly won by less than 1 point.

Unfortunately for Hillary, a recent poll from Florida Atlantic University provides even more bad news. While Obama received 95% of the black vote in Florida in 2012, Hillary is only polling at 68% among black voters while Trump is polling at 20%. And, at least according to the president of the Democratic African-American Women Caucus, this math has the Clinton campaign in “full panic mode.”.

Can Trump win California and/or NY?

Peter P says

Can Trump win California and/or NY?

Supposedly so in CA and not NY, which makes no sense to me; I would think it would be the other way around since Trump is going to win big in upstate NY, and win in suburban NYC, and most likely Statan Island too.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Trump is going to win big in upstate NY,

My BIL in Red Hook has said all year it's up to you's folks in Florida. While he nad no doubt Trump has the upstate. He said the Liberals in the City will carry the state there is no contest about that.

Polls were already moving in Trump's favor BEFORE the FBI announcement.

Saw video of Hillary asking how many of you voted early. Everyone there yelled.
I thought great everyone there has already voted, Pointless Trump is still ahead in early voting by 17k.

After casting my early vote for Trump.

Trump ahead in New Hampshire:
http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/11/03/trump-clinton-new-hampshire
This new poll (topline, crosstabs) now shows Trump in front, with a razor thin 1-point lead.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_nov3
Republican Donald Trump has a three-point lead in Rasmussen Reports’ White House Watch survey. Among voters who are certain how they will vote, Trump now has over 50% support.

http://www.jpost.com/US-Elections/Exclusive-Trump-beats-Clinton-in-Israeli-absentee-voter-exit-poll-471561
Trump beats Clinton in Israeli absentee-voter exit poll
Trump received 49% of the Israeli-American vote, while Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton got 44%, according to the poll conducted by get-out-the-vote organization iVoteIsrael and KEEVOON Global Research.

http://eagnews.org/elementary-school-cancels-mock-election-after-students-chant-trump-trump-trump/

Elementary school cancels mock election after students chant ‘Trump! Trump! Trump!’

zzyzzx is deplorable says

http://eagnews.org/elementary-school-cancels-mock-election-after-students-chant-trump-trump-trump/

Elementary school cancels mock election after students chant ‘Trump! Trump! Trump!’

Great find... That's in New York too.

Just came back from barbershop 3 Hispanic 2 white barbers mix of clients and everybody pro Trump and want Hillary in jail and this is in LA I thought it would be more polarized. Same with all of my Hispanic and Asian friends, only Hillary supports I know are a few women. Maybe Trump will get a lot more votes in CA than anyone is thinking.

Will Trump win 400+ EV?

No, Hillary is upticking in the average of polls.

marcus is NOT deplorable says

No, Hillary is upticking in the average of polls.

Not quite sure that Hillary going from 1.7 ahead Tuesday night to 1.3 ahead wednesday night back to 1.7 ahead last night while Maine of all places goes to Tossups status constitutes an uptick in the polls.