patrick.net

Women don't actually work for any less than men do, for the same job with the same experience. In fact, they get paid significantly more than men in their 20's at least. So they are not competing on wages.

Also, in countries with a high level of female participation in the workforce, real wages are substantially higher than in countries where women do not work.

Gary Anderson says

Only problem is, wages must decline for us to be competative

Or our currency could decline for the same effect, without local wages declining. China is a master at that game.

rando says

At least you admit that globalization is part of the problem

Admit ?

Globalization exists. How much of a problem it is, I don't know. I guess we can fight it. But maybe if we go with it, we move towards figuring out how to live in a world that's quickly going to get to a population of 10 billion. That is, in a sustainable way. SOme "problems" are just facts, and not problems to be solved.

I see logical conundrums.

What does the long game look like ? Will there be a world government that oversees things like pollution, terrorism, nuclear proliferation and fair use of resources ?

OR will we isolate ourselves and let the rest of the world figure out their own problems ?

MAybe we can continue consuming a majority of the worlds resources, at a rate that is totally unsustainable, but minding our own business while other countries continue to develop, with many eventually having nukes. THen where do we find ourselves 50 years from now ? What do the countries that lose out decade after decade do ?

Are you just figuring that maybe civilization doesn't go on that long, so it doesn't matter ? Or perhaps you figure that maybe nuclear winter will be what saves us from global warming ?

I know that Trump has been hanging out for decades with people that think way more about this kind of stuff than where their next income is going to come from. So maybe you're right to want Trump as President.

Gary Anderson says

Only problem is, wages must decline for us to be competative

That is a myth. Wages are created by production. The US has more people working now than at any time in history, despite having lost a ton of jobs to China, and we have very low unemployment.

The US is only slightly behind China in manufacturing.

The best way to create economic growth is to slow the growth of regulations and taxes and laws.

marcus is NOT deplorable says

Will there be a world government

Sounds like an exceptionally bad idea to me. Where do you go when the one world government goes bad?

marcus is NOT deplorable says

MAybe we can continue consuming a majority of the worlds resources, at a rate that is totally unsustainable

Don't worry, China will quickly pass us in consuming resources. Already beat us more than 10 years ago in many aspects of consumption. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4272577.stm

If Trump becomes President, I predict he will spend his entire first term getting over himself - that he's President - that he's actually that good of a salesman. That and adoring his own image in the media. There will be a lot of bullshit. So much fun for all the assholes that just want to fuck everyone else (and themselves) over.

Patrick is pretty close to completely illiterate on economics...

1. jobs will come back to the US. Bullshit. factories are moving out of china to other countries like vietnam, malaysia, cambodia as I write this, for two reasons: China's aging population is actually making labor more expensive then its neighbors, and the TPP if it passes makes it better to have your company in TPP countries. Tarriffs on china will simply move things faster; Your cheap crap will never be made in the US again, close down china, and it moves to somewhere else with cheap labor.

2. Hillary will export jobs. Sure, we are up 40 million jobs since her husband came into office; millions a year under Obama. Your writing style is better than ironvagina, but sadly, you aren't much ahead of him in your conclusions.

3. people will feel free to support traditional gender roles, marriage. Seriously wtf? nothing is more supported than traditional gender roles in this country. literally, nothing. Nobody is out there encouraging anyone to turn gay, and stopping discrimination against one group does literally nothing against the dominant group. other than your own bigotry, what could possibly make you think anyone is not supporting your or my traditional marriages?

Patrick says

If Trump wins (very much like the Brexit), the dollar will drop, and therefore US exports will surge. There will be tariffs against China, and US manufacturing will in fact revive. Some form of the wall with Mexico will be built, and millions of illegals will leave or be deported (so the cost of vegetables, maids, and construction work will go up).

Earth to patrick. These things are not dictated by the president no matter how much trump believes it to be true. Tarrifs and walls are all things that must be passed by congress. The congress trump has been at war with for the entire campaign. The trump anti establishment presidency is a joke. He isn't bringing in an anti establishment congress on his coat tails.

Patrick says

Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses, while the super-wealthy find their wealth stagnating because they depended so much on Hillary's policies. So the gap between rich and poor will decline.

You do realize that a cheaper dollar and import tarrifs means that all imports become more expensive don't you? Many of the top import categories will not be replaced by domestic sources. For those products that are replaced domestically there will not be any surge in wages, production is being automated too fast for that. Robots are getting cheaper by the day, don't call in sick or take vacations. So the masses won't be seeing any increase (or will see a decrease) in their standard of living. The super wealthy have the ability to arbitrage the dollar flow either direction no matter who's policies are implemented. Assuming trump can get any polices implemented at all.

40c8 says

nothing is more supported than traditional gender roles in this country

Try suggesting that motherhood is actually a worthy and noble use of 20 years of a young woman's life on any college campus. You'll be tied up, doused with gasoline, and burned alive, while being kicked to death.

I'm so glad that D & R voters had nothing to do with the fubar america is in today.
So continually voting R & D will certainly do no harm to america.

If ignorance is bliss,
All the Democrats & Republicans have a shit eating smile.

I predict that at the swearing in ceremony, Obama will pop out of the IHLlary fat suit for another four years.

rando says

Try suggesting that motherhood is actually a worthy and noble use of 20 years of a young woman's life on any college campus.

People are being over-educated. They are learning negative knowledge. Ignorance of one's own ignorance is worse than simple ignorance.

freespeechforever says

Gary, don't look now, but you are advocating the benefits of asset-deflation, which is the #1 boogy-man of the most liberal economists such as (hack) Paul Krugman and others of his smelly, bearded ilk.

Market monetarists, who are libertarian and opposed to fiscal stimulus, often, also advocate asset inflation just like Krugman. Lambert opposes it and so do I. It was ok to get us off the mat in 2009. It really hurt mainstreet because it continued too long. The divide between rich and poor is simply too great.

indigenous says

That is a myth. Wages are created by production. The US has more people working now than at any time in history, despite having lost a ton of jobs to China, and we have very low unemployment.

Wages have to decline for certain industries. But you are correct, wages are too low compared to the allocation of capital which is Lambert's argument. So, wages need to go up in order for GDP to grow. That is fact, or the cost of living has to come way down. Speculation in real estate is destroying that option.

Slow the growth of regulations, but not give banks free checking to blow another bubble with bad paper.

rando says

Or our currency could decline for the same effect, without local wages declining. China is a master at that game.

Only problem is that the cost of living is too high. So, in certain industries that need a financial break, rents and house prices are just too high. Lambert's argument is that labor is not getting enough of the profits which is slowing GDP growth. So, we have a problem, the need to compete against the need to pay better wages. Globalization sure has made this difficult. Real estate speculation will force any gains by labor to go to Wall Street, which undermines the GDP. Many businesses are just hanging on because of low interest rates, but rates need to be raised as I said above, or pensions, insurance companies, and elderly will not participate properly in the economy.

However, the likelihood of the next world war being the last is very high...

Peter P says

I can pretty much guarantee that we have NOT seen the last world war.

With the advent of Boston Market drive-through, the "dinner ready at 6 oclock" meme is dated...

Gary Anderson says

Have dinner ready at 6 oclock or else.

As a result of their middle class jobs being exported. They are too smart for garbage picking, and so are being told the path to success is to educate yourself further and further generating a lifelong mortgage on intelligence...however they wind up at mcdonalds anyway.

Peter P says

People are being over-educated. They are learning negative knowledge

Patrick says

I think he has a better chance than polls predict, because the majority of Americans have been strongly conditioned not to speak their actual views through decades of threats of job loss or expulsion from school, and this probably carries over when speaking with pollsters.

I keep thinking about this and the effect it is having on the polls up to now. There are a lot of people out there that won't advertise their support for Trump publicly due to backlash within any social, professional, or education system circle they run in.

And @Patrick, you sure do believe that a huge amount of change will take place depending on the elected candidate. I'm not as optimistic on that.

BayArea says

I keep thinking about this and the effect it is having on the polls up to now. There are a lot of people out there that won't advertise their support for Trump publicly due to backlash within any social, professional, or education system circle they run in.

THen again, how many people like the idea of being a rabble rouser and sturring things up, but when it comes time to vote, they wake up and realize this guy is saying some compelling stuff, but he's a con artist and it's too risky, so last minute they change their mind and decide not to blow up the world.

Also, polls say nothing about percentage of people that will vote. Maybe a lot of people that normally wouldn't bother, will come out to stop this clown.

You don't realize how many people see the guy for who he is.

marcus is NOT deplorable says

You don't realize how many people see the guy for who he is.

I do because I'm one of those people.

But if a "silent majority" does exist, it's surely predominantly pro Trump. Hillary has little silent majority because libs run their mouth to anyone who will listen.

BayArea says

But if a "silent majority" does exist, it's surely predominantly pro Trump. Hillary has no silent majority

Not talking silent majority.

When they poll people, it doesn't capture people that don't vote. PEople that don't vote aren't a silent majoirty, they are people that have a preference but just don't bother voting, becasue they're lazy, they're busy, becasue they don't think their one vote matters or because of some combination of those reasons or others. 57% voted in 2012.

What I'm saying is that people that might otherwise not vote may be voting this time becasue of how much they don't want the other person President. Yes this works on both sides, but I believe it might surprise people what percentage show up for Hillary.

Let's not forget how much better her ground game is where it matters.

BayArea says

But if a "silent majority" does exist, it's surely predominantly pro Trump.

Not sure. A lot of conservative women are scandalized by Trump. Look at Utah. Mormon women don't want Trump.

I think Clinton in a landslide, because you cannot offend women, blacks, Hispanics, disabled and everyone under the sun and hope white men vote for you.

There's way more dishonesty, stupidity, ego and hate out there than we ever imagined.

If Hillary wins, I predict that Trump's movement against establishment politicians will continue to grow, because the conditions which gave rise to Trump will continue. Hillary will continue to aggressively export US jobs, import foreign labor to depress wages, restrict free speech, attack traditional values, and start additional wars around the world. That would make the next election unfortunately even more interesting.

There's not much of a problem with free speech. Those overhypes stories from college campuses are insignificant. Immigrants may push down wages for some workers, but they don't push down the average wage. Your grandparents or great-grandparents must have pushed down wages for someone whenever they came over, if that's a real issue.

40c8 says

1. jobs will come back to the US. Bullshit. factories are moving out of china to other countries like vietnam, malaysia, cambodia as I write this, for two reasons: China's aging population is actually making labor more expensive then its neighbors, and the TPP if it passes makes it better to have your company in TPP countries. Tarriffs on china will simply move things faster; Your cheap crap will never be made in the US again, close down china, and it moves to somewhere else with cheap labor.

Then we will put tariffs on those countries too. Duh.

I'm going to predict that Gary Anderson will never be heard from again here, since he is only here for the election anyway.

Patrick says

Patrick's Predictions

Here's my prediction. PatNeters will spend all day looking at preliminary polling results, and when it's all over, half of PatNeters will bitch about the results and call the election rigged. Oh, and this prediction also applies to the general population.

marcus is NOT deplorable says

You don't realize how many people see the woman for who she is.

Fixed.

Gary Anderson says

I think Clinton in a landslide, because you cannot offend women, blacks, Hispanics, disabled and everyone under the sun and hope white men vote for you.

Clinton has made very similar offensive remarks.

What's your point?

Does it really say one of the sources is the Daily Mail? FFS!

Gary Anderson says

Not sure. A lot of conservative women are scandalized by Trump. Look at Utah. Mormon women don't want Trump

Maybe true... But when you look at the alternative you realize that it's not Mother Teresa standing there hoping for your vote

More generally about the election: Don't forget that there are all kinds of other elections today than for president.

The composition of the US house and senate is going to be hugely important, as it always is. Same at the state level. Voting in those elections also matters.

Patrick says

Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses, while the super-wealthy find their wealth stagnating because they depended so much on Hillary's policies. So the gap between rich and poor will decline.

Patrick,

Agree with nearly all of what you said. However:
- We have outsourced so many key jobs, and have a large slide in Technology graduates in the US. Some of the very key technologies such as advanced high density circuit boards, HiTech TV components will not easily come back on shore. Much as we did in the 1940s-1970s, US citizens are going to have to work very hard to pick up our slack on Science and Engineering and Manufacturing. I hope I am wrong about this.
- Trump will have to break through loads of Beauracrasy and Legal hurdles that have multipled since WJ Clinton. With those B-crats doing all they can to preserve their job, it may take a nearly revolutionary like push to restore fairness in contracting, make the private sector free-er and bring the Small and Medium business out of the wrath of Politicians and B-crats.

That said going the way of Hillary pushes us towards what the French were in the late 1790s - High Ranking Administrators controlling the Judiciary. (Read DeTocqueville Ancienne Regime Chapt 2-7)

Trade with China was 110% human-designed by Big Business, think tanks underwrote Economics Chairs at Universities, produced amazing Brochures and Lectures, paid politicians billions of dollars in speeches, donations, PAC donations, etc.

It is not a natural force like a hurricane or earthquake. It is 110% big business in politics. It can be 110% reversed by politics.

Outsourcing to China and Mexico is completely a result of rewriting laws and signing treaties.

People seem to think before the early 90s, nobody owned TVs, Phones, Cars, or Fax Machines because they were all made in the USA and it cost $10,000 to have a touch tone phone or that a Ford Econoline Van cost $250,000 because it was made expensively in the USA, and only the very rich had touch tone phones or cars until we outsourced everything..

I noticed in my neighborhood there are lots of signs out for local and state candidates, NONE for presidential candidate. People either hate them too much to support them, or are afraid of their free speech being violated, as well as their lawn, property, and possibly personage.

My predication, one communist is as bad as another, nothing changes.

Ranina ranina says

However, the likelihood of the next world war being the last is very high...

Not really. You will be surprised.

For me this election has shown the media to be too powerful and corrupt. I can't find a news source that doesn't have a built in bias. Staying in touch with what's going on is a massive day to day slog. I have some shows that I like on YouTube, but I never watch main stream news anymore.

What worries me is the media was so successful this election and I'm sure big business sat up and took notice. So I only expect it to get worse.

Yeah, because Youtube channels sure have the resources to do quality investigative journalism.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

It is not a natural force like a hurricane or earthquake. It is 110% big business in politics. It can be 110% reversed by politics.

That's not true, comparative advantage is known and accepted natural law.

China is guilty of mercantilism. OTOH the US is guilty of exploiting the reserve currency status.