Comments 1 - 17 of 17 Search these comments
The thing about record highs that makes them record highs, are the crashes that always follow.
There is truth in thatAPOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says
LONG:
YAMS!
BULLETS!
Anything BELT!-FED!
Here is an article showing the levels of pessimism building, and highlights two very divided economic Americas ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/05/business/economy/economy-global-pew-survey.html
The divisions in politics, and personal earnings, are also reflected in the two big bets right now : stocks versus bonds.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-06/bofa-if-bonds-are-right-stocks-will-drop-20
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4077421-face-stocks-vs-bonds-economic-outlook
In this article you can hear Logan chanting something about demographics and ... "USA! USA! USa usa .... usa .......... usa ....."
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/upshot/we-may-be-closer-to-full-employment-than-it-seemed-thats-bad-news.html
The big business story today is mega giant Amazon trying to capture the low end of the consumer market ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-com-prime-idUSKBN18X1MH
... and I think that might be the most pessimistic stance of everything I just linked.
Essentially, yuck. I'm sure the market will stay irrational for as long as it can though. It always does.
I have the same feeling. That's why I'm staying in. I tend to be right when I do the opposite of what I feel.
We're going higher. Much higher before we crash
I've covered what I'm not willing to lose already, and will let the rest ride.
I'm selling my rental property this month and have already started moving equities into bonds and metals.
It's just too high for comfort imho
I thought the amrket peaked almost two years ago-LOL! timing, timing, considering the job numbers and the GDP growth, I am surprised at the market.
I don't see any reason for market to collapse. Not that I haven't been wrong in the past, because I have been plenty. Just I don't see an event that will cause it to crash.
Recession though, yes that's happening.
I thought the amrket peaked almost two years ago-LOL! timing, timing, considering the job numbers and the GDP growth, I am surprised at the market.
It did. And every month after that.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4078028-recession-probability-100-percent-guaranteed
Hmmm... Consider that the recession can start up to 2 years before and it can end up to 6 years later (than the start of the presidency). Don't forget to forget the recessions that don't follow the pattern (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States). This makes the match easier
We always have recessions in a fairly regular cycle. The severity of the recession is the only variable.
Buffet said:" Anyone who bets against America will lose"
Buffet said:" Every 10 year or so, there will be dark clouds showing up in the financial market and it will rain gold for a short period of time, and my job is to be prepared and capture as much gold as I could."
Buffet said in 2012/3:"We do not need more than 20 billion cash, any cash above that, Berkshire will pull out the elephant gun and blow it"
Last week, somebody twitted Berkshire is 80billion in cash, about 40%?
The value guys will NOT though those bonds since they are return free risk.
For equities, value guys will not buy either although the return could be driven much higher by speculators.
Time wise, coercive North Korea has lasted somany decades. Coercive central banks can last a longer until the confidence in paper is lost.
Good. If market drops it will be a great buying opportunity! BUY LOW SELL HIGH!
Even an oscillating pattern can be stable.
So everything is everything? I disagree with that type of post-modern subjective re-evaluation of all words to be so non-specific they lose all meaning. Economic stability is not crashes and inflation on the scale we've seen. It's slow, steady growth based on production of real goods, and creation of needed services. What we have is growth based on inflation, and number manipulation(see chartman's posts), i.e. a confidence game.
Now a stable economy is not immune to some crashes, or rapid spikes, but those tend to be short lived, and quickly corrected. Only when you allow the kind of sustained, long-term manipulation that a central bank can produce do you get these large, sharp spikes and dips.
Buffet said:" Anyone who bets against America will lose"
Buffet said:" Every 10 year or so, there will be dark clouds showing up in the financial market and it will rain gold for a short period of time, and my job is to be prepared and capture as much gold as I could."
Buffet said in 2012/3:"We do not need more than 20 billion cash, any cash above that, Berkshire will pull out the elephant gun and blow it"
Last week, somebody twitted Berkshire is 80billion in cash, about 40%?
Telling...
I have a funny feeling that the fucking dip is coming...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4078028-recession-probability-100-percent-guaranteed
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/05/inverted-yield-curve-predicting-coming-recession-commentary.html
#investing
#housing