patrick.net

DASKAA says

It's the battery.

Which no one wants to talk about.

MrBark says

Conveniently ignored the other points like you not changing your oil or other scheduled maintenance for 55k miles,

Since you brought up maintainence, you're doing the same thing with brakes, tires, suspension parts, etc.

But what happens when you need to spend $10K+ to replace that battery pack? All your fuel savings and oil change savings go out the window, and wipe out your checkbook. It becomes a zero sum game.

Evan F. says

The fact that Tesla is worth more than GM means it's more than just partisan hacks that believe there's an affordable all electric car.

Yes, that Model 3 at $60K is so much more affordable than my $30K Honda, because you're saving on fuel costs each week, right?


FortWayne says

Plus they are twice as expensive. I’m sure they are nice cars, but price is too high.

But, but, but you don't have to buy gas, so paying DOUBLE for the car is so much more beneficial, right?

This must be more Liberal Logic.

MrMagic says

DASKAA says

It's the battery.

Which no one wants to talk about

Whadayamean? What else is there to talk about on an EV, besides electic motor? The rest of the vehicle is the same as their ICE-powered brethern.

MrMagic says

Since you brought up maintainence, you're doing the same thing with brakes

Sorry, not brakes.
From Why electric vehicles have lower maintenance costs
Electric vehicles use regenerative braking to decelerate the car and in the process transfer energy to the battery that can be used to accelerate the car. The traditional braking system wastes a lot of kinetic energy that’s transferred to heat and then dissipated into the surrounding environment. Therefore, regenerative braking leads to lower operating costs as battery power is generated while driving.
Regenerative braking has a lower emphasis on the use of the braking pad. You’ll mostly be using it when you need to decelerate rapidly or come to a halt. Consequently, your brake pads will last significantly longer.
You may even find that a one pedal system is implemented such as in the Tesla Model 3 and Nissan LEAF.

The car subsidy is going down in 2019, and will go from $7500 to $0 eventually. This is probably what made him panic.

People just didn't buy the cars. EDIT: Tesla has never sold very many cars. I hope this is more satisfactory wording.

The company should not have gone public in the first place.

Tesla is the modern day DeLorean, right down to the gull winged cars.

clambo says

People just didn't buy the cars.

Really? Last time I checked they didn't have overproduction problem: whatever they manage to churn out is immediately delivered to a paying customer. Their car are definitely not gathering dust on dealer lots. They don't even offer leases on Model3.

EBGuy says

MrMagic says

Since you brought up maintainence, you're doing the same thing with brakes

Sorry, not brakes.

You might want to check your sources. To my eyes they have calipers and rotors, just like every other car:

clambo says

Tesla is the modern day DeLorean, right down to the gull winged cars.

And will end up with the same fate....

Someone else called the Tesla fanboys "Branch Elonians", I can't take credit for it, but it's funny.

DASKAA says

MrMagic says

DASKAA says

It's the battery.

Which no one wants to talk about

Whadayamean? What else is there to talk about on an EV, besides electic motor?

Exactly...

But all the fanboys keep quacking on and on about oil changes, gas and regular maintenance on a conventional car, but ignore the $10K gorilla in the room (the battery pack) that will need to be replaced. That, plus the double cost of the original EV pays for a hell of a lot of oil changes, gas and maintenance on a normal car.

Funny, the Tesla fanboys sound just like the Apple fanboys...

clambo says

Tesla is the modern day DeLorean, right down to the gull winged cars.

Glib, reductive, and just plain inaccurate. Tesla isn't a car company. It's a battery company that also sells cars and solar cell installations. That mammoth Gigafactory in Nevada wasn't built to expand automotive production, it's for battery production. They're literally forcing a new standard of batteries on the industry, moving from 18650 to 2170.

0-60 in 2.1 sec. If you haven't ridden in one, you're missing out, they're fucking amazing. And you're comparing it to an (admittedly iconic and pretty great looking) overweight hooptie with a 135 hp Volvo motor stuffed in the back.

Fact is, people like you have been predicting Tesla's demise for years now. And you have been, and still are, wrong. I, for one, would like to see the company succeed..I don't own a Tesla. Perhaps in the future when my Subaru finally buys the farm. I don't consider myself a fanboy, either. I just like it when game changing products succeed in the marketplace.

DASKAA says

Really? Last time I checked they didn't have overproduction problem: whatever they manage to churn out is immediately delivered to a paying customer. Their car are definitely not gathering dust on dealer lots.

Really?? Not according to eye witnesses..

How about gathering dust on hidden lots?

Why Are "Thousands" of Teslas Sitting In a Field in California?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-19/why-are-thousands-teslas-sitting-field-california-0

Evan F. says

It's a battery company that also sells cars and solar cell installations.

Speaking of solar cell installations, how's Musk's SolarCity doing these days? You might be surprised.

MrMagic says

DASKAA says

Really? Last time I checked they didn't have overproduction problem: whatever they manage to churn out is immediately delivered to a paying customer. Their car are definitely not gathering dust on dealer lots.

Really?? Not according to eye witnesses..

How about gathering dust on hidden lots?

Why Are "Thousands" of Teslas Sitting In a Field in California?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-19/why-are-thousands-teslas-sitting-field-california-0

These might be the ones which need some production defects fixed before delivery. They are not sitting there for the lack of buyers, that's for sure. Otherwise ther won't be any lag between the time you order one on their website and delivery. Right now the lag is measured in weeks (if not month). Production problem, not lack of customers.

DASKAA says

These might be the ones which need some production defects fixed before delivery.

Why do they have production defects if they just left the factory??? Hmmmm...

DASKAA says

Otherwise ther won't be any lag between the time you order one on their website and delivery. Right now the lag is measured in weeks (if not month).

Any chance that lag is because they have to fix the production defects (which there are many that have been reported)?

DASKAA says

They are not sitting there for the lack of buyers, that's for sure.

You sure??

24% of Tesla Model 3 Orders Cancelled, Cancellations Outnumber New Orders
Cancellations for Model 3 orders have picked up in recent weeks. Refunds now outpace deposits for Tesla’s new mass-market electric car, according to Needham & Co. analyst Rajvindra Gill. About one in every four Model 3 orders is canceled, Gill said, double the rate from a year ago.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/23/24-of-tesla-model-3-orders-cancelled-cancellations-outnumber-new-orders/

Tenpoundbass says

As soon as Obama left all of the Tech companies started failing when the Government isn't there to prop them up.

Ha ha ha ha. Captain, the tech companies are still around, and hitting record highs. Apple, Google, Amazon etc. Please keep up with the news.

MrMagic says

Why do they have production defects if they just left the factory??? Hmmmm...

Pretty common practice at other automakers. GM specifically.

FortWayne says

EVs are unknown to me, I can’t fix electric motors. Plus they are twice as expensive. I’m sure they are nice cars, but price is too high.

Tesla's are expensive. The rest of the EV's work out cheaper. Just do your homework.

MrMagic says

They are not sitting there for the lack of buyers, that's for sure.

You sure??

24% of Tesla Model 3 Orders Cancelled, Cancellations Outnumber New Orders
Cancellations for Model 3 orders have picked up in recent weeks.

Absolutely sure. If they were sitting on the lots because of the lack of buyers, anyone could walk up and buy one (and get a hefty discount to boot). Alas, it's not happening and if you want one and pay full MSRP for it right now, you'll still have to wait 2-4 month (I checked). Funny how markets work.

Evan F. says

Tenpoundbass says

what happens when the Batteries stop holding a charge? Those batteries will be $10K a pop. It's amazing how many partisan hacks still believe in Musk and Tesla, they want to believe there is an affordable all electric car, being made in a company that has no production issues, by AI robots from 100 years into the future. The reality wont hit them until they have to plop down 10K for a new battery.

What happens when your transmission breaks, or your engine throws a rod, or your timing chain snaps? All massively expensive repairs for cars that just happen. Focusing on an EV's batteries is just cherry picking.

The battery packs are guaranteed for 8 years, 100K miles with full replacement, not pro rated. Engines are not guaranteed that long, and need constant maintenance.

DASKAA says

clambo says

People just didn't buy the cars.

Really? Last time I checked they didn't have overproduction problem: whatever they manage to churn out is immediately delivered to a paying customer. Their car are definitely not gathering dust on dealer lots. They don't even offer leases on Model3.

I've been waiting 2.5 years for the Model 3. I'm still waiting. They just cant keep up with demand.

MrMagic says

But all the fanboys keep quacking on and on about oil changes, gas and regular maintenance on a conventional car, but ignore the $10K gorilla in the room (the battery pack) that will need to be replaced. That, plus the double cost of the original EV pays for a hell of a lot of oil changes, gas and maintenance on a normal car.

Funny, the Tesla fanboys sound just like the Apple fanboys...

Hey, that's true. The fanboys know a good thing when they see it.
The battery is guaranteed for 8 years, 100K miles. They have had very few battery failures. By the time one fails out of warranty, the battery pack will cost 80% less.

I don't get the discussion here. I rather dislike Musk, but acknowledge he's doing some cool things (it's possible to do both FYI). The fact remains if you haven't driven a Nissan, but say it's better then a Ford (which you haven't driven either), you kind of sound like an idiot.

Drive the car and report back. If not, you should probably STFU about something you haven't experienced. I've driven a Tesla and they're great cars. I don't own one. I own two gassers and will for the foreseeable future. The model 3 is "marketed" as being for the masses, but it's still a luxury car. This is fact. It's not for everybody, but it works for a lot of people.

Fort Wayne kind of has it spot on. Car gets you A to B. Some of you probably have a hot wife and some ugly bitches thinking their turd is hot. End game is the same with both though, in and out, or A to B. Bitching and complaining about a car though is pretty idiotic and time could be much better spent going in and out, if you're lucky enough to have the hottie.

WookieMan says

The model 3 is "marketed" as being for the masses, but it's still a luxury car. This is fact. It's not for everybody, but it works for a lot of people.

Yep, it's basically a BMW 3-series / Audi A4 competitor. Comparing it to Corolla or Civic and pointing to the price difference is dumb.

Car maintenance is cheap on all cars.

Oil changes every 3k miles usually means under $200 a year if you pay someone. Air filter is 15$ and you can even buy reusable that you dust off.

Spark plugs and some small ticket items you do every 100k, and I’ve known most people to not touch these for 250k miles where it’s time for new car anyway.

EV long term maintenance is unknown. I hear horror stories about batteries, could be hearsay. But it’s new tech that very likely needs to mature a bit more. It’s definitely the future.

Strategist says

The battery packs are guaranteed for 8 years, 100K miles with full replacement, not pro rated. Engines are not guaranteed that long, and need constant maintenance.

You lose 25% of you battery that's 75 miles less the car can make between charges. Longer charging time to get less charge as the battery deteriorates.

TrumpingTits says

Strategist says

Oil companies have been receiving subsidies for ever. What a waste.

I suppose next you are going to bring up the 'subsidies' of military domination of the Middle East?

Funny, the US doesn't get its oil form the ME...except for Bat Shit California...but that is California's choice.

The US is or is close to being a net oil producer right now.

True, but oil companies still receive subsidies. Why shouldn't clean energy and electric cars?

I just drove my Bolt from San Diego County to Las Vegas. My Bolt is my all-time favorite car.

Strategist says

TrumpingTits says

Strategist says

Oil companies have been receiving subsidies for ever. What a waste.

I suppose next you are going to bring up the 'subsidies' of military domination of the Middle East?

Funny, the US doesn't get its oil form the ME...except for Bat Shit California...but that is California's choice.

The US is or is close to being a net oil producer right now.

True, but oil companies still receive subsidies. Why shouldn't clean energy and electric cars?

Because oil companies pay politicians a lot more money.

The US MAY (MIT just did a research study that said the industry group EIA numbers for future production are way over optimistic and killing the mileage regs is going to increase gasoline consumption) become a net oil producer but it won't be producing anywhere enough gasoline with domestic supplies anytime soon. The refineries are mostly built for heavy sour crude that is imported, , not the light sweet coming out of fracking. Capacity to refine light sweet is pretty much maxed out. There ins't a strong market overseas to sell it either. Refineries cost billions of dollars and take up to a decade to get up and running so there isn't going to be a quick changeover coming.

TrumpingTits says

California's choice.

Thanks for posting that. It surprised me, so I looked up the numbers, and found they have changed dramatically in the most recent 20 years. CA used to get most of its oil from USA sources, but now it's mostly foreign, and half the foreign oil comes from Muslim countries that hate us (KSA, Iraq, Kuwait). Meanwhile, CA has plenty of oil offshore, and the coastal Pacific would be comparatively easier to drill than the North Sea, for example.

Chart of CA oil sources, with links detailing foreign sources:

Evan F. says

0-60 in 2.1 sec. If you haven't ridden in one, you're missing out, they're fucking amazing.

I'm sure that acceleration really comes in handy when sitting in bumper to bumper traffic on a CA Freeway.

Strategist says

The battery packs are guaranteed for 8 years, 100K miles with full replacement, not pro rated. Engines are not guaranteed that long, and need constant maintenance.

First, engines today last well longer than 100K miles, and Second, if by chance you had to replace one, it sure as hell won't cost the $10K+ it costs for a battery pack at 100K miles.

FortWayne says

Car maintenance is cheap on all cars.

Oil changes every 3k miles usually means under $200 a year if you pay someone. Air filter is 15$ and you can even buy reusable that you dust off.

Spark plugs and some small ticket items you do every 100k, a

But, but, but... regular maintenance is so expensive, that's why I have to pay DOUBLE for my EV up front, compare to the conventional car...

All I can add is a friend has both a high-end porsche and a nice modified BMW. He prefers the tesla he has - he claims it has great torque and great handling. Fun car to drive. At that level (high end "lifestyle" decision), I don't know that maintenance costs are a concern. It will be too bad if a company like Tesla can't succeed in the US. Given that GM was bailed out, I am surprised at the vitriol toward Tesla on the board. I would think that Tesla would have had a better go if GM was simply "gone" - maybe Musk would have picked up the EV part of GM - who knows. Musk may not do everything "right", but he sure is trying which is more than most of us do on this board. :)

Cheers,.

bob2356 says

True, but oil companies still receive subsidies. Why shouldn't clean energy and electric cars?

Because oil companies pay politicians a lot more money.

The US MAY (MIT just did a research study that said the industry group EIA numbers for future production are way over optimistic and killing the mileage regs is going to increase gasoline consumption) become a net oil producer but it won't be producing anywhere enough gasoline with domestic supplies anytime soon. The refineries are mostly built for heavy sour crude that is imported, , not the light sweet coming out of fracking. Capacity to refine light sweet is pretty much maxed out. There ins't a strong market overseas to sell it either. Refineries cost billions of dollars and take up to a decade to get up and running so there isn't going to be a quick changeover coming.

I believe it. Nothing good can happen when politicians meet $trillion oil companies.
I'm very optimistic when it comes to Trump attempting to eliminate mileage requirements. Even if he succeeds, California and half the states will still maintain their mileage requirements. So will all of Europe, China, and Asia. The car companies will be forced to go by what most of the world wants. It won't be economical for them to go by old mileage rules for just 20 American states.

People confuses good product with good company. This is exactly where Elon can survive this long. A sexy product that diverts people’s attention away from asking the question of “what is the return of investment”. Ponzi means the investment scheme lose money and require new capital injection. A good product is a good product. You can have a good product and a ponzi scheme at the same time.

Strategist says

Even if he succeeds, California and half the states will still maintain their mileage requirements. So will all of Europe, China, and Asia. The car companies will be forced to go by what most of the world wants. It won't be economical for them to go by old mileage rules for just 20 American states.

Car companies have successfully kept separate product lines for US, Europe and 3rd world countries for ages. Nothing will preclude them from doing the same going forward. US market is big enough to warrant US-only models.

MrMagic says

First, engines today last well longer than 100K miles, and Second, if by chance you had to replace one, it sure as hell won't cost the $10K+ it costs for a battery pack at 100K miles.

As others have said here, a Model 3 is most comparable to a BMW 3 series or Audi A4. If you grenade a motor on one of those cars, you are most definitely looking at repairs in the 10k region. And both of those cars only carry warranties of 4yrs/50k miles.

MrMagic says

I'm sure that acceleration really comes in handy when sitting in bumper to bumper traffic on a CA Freeway.

The same might be said of any performance car. I'm sure the owner of a LaFerrari is delighted to idle their day away on the 405. What's your point? The difference is that my buddy- who owns a 75D- flips on auto pilot and is able to relax, do a fucking crossword, and only barely pay attention to what's in front of him on his morning commute.

Tenpoundbass says

You lose 25% of you battery that's 75 miles less the car can make between charges. Longer charging time to get less charge as the battery deteriorates.

Not sure where you're getting that claim from.

https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/

Also, ICE engines lose efficiency over time too. After 100k miles you're invariably getting slightly worse mileage and lesser performance. Wear and tear does that to any mechanical system.

Evan F. says

my buddy- who owns a 75D- flips on auto pilot and is able to relax, do a fucking crossword, and only barely pay attention to what's in front of him on his morning commute.

Highly idiotic. People fucking died by doing this.

DASKAA says

Highly idiotic. People fucking died by doing this.

True. But the ones who died were going well north of 50 mph. He's crawling along the 405 at 5mph when he does this. Trust me, no one is going to die here.

Evan F. says

He's crawling along the 405 at 5mph

Yes, like I said, everyone needs the acceleration of a model 3 for that situation.
Evan F. says

I'm sure the owner of a LaFerrari is delighted to idle their day away on the 405. What's your point?

I seriously doubt that. I think YOUR point is a little bit dull.

Only in California do people buy expensive sports cars only to idle along at 5 mph.... Must be something to do with that "small penis syndrome".