patrick.net

Humans are unfortunately every bit as random about killing each other as disease, simply because we have a more complex formula for determining our victims than raw physical strength.

Unfortunately (depending upon your perspective), randomness is necessary for how "genetic algorithms" find their fitness function. I think the main mistake people make when thinking about evolution (or progressive adaptation for those disturbed by the politicization of evolution) is that it is undirected. Randomness culling of the herd is just a mechanism that keeps the pot stirred up and prevents stagnation. Even if it does suxorz.

Unfortunately (depending upon your perspective), randomness is necessary for how “genetic algorithms” find their fitness function.

Randomness is an illusion.

To me, evolution is looking less and less likely. There must be some universial consciousness.

desmond morris has argued that homicide and warfare are a product of a displaced hunting instinct, evolved from the plains of africa through the australopithecenes.

more recently, new scientific observations of chimps in the wild have lead dale peterson and richard wrangham to point out in 'demonic males' that chimpanzees are both highly territorial and carnivorous (when they can obtain meat in the jungle, usually with some difficulty). they have been observed engagred in lethal military forays against other tribes of chimps also. occasionally leadership rivals are found dead in the jungle.

these instincts seem to still be with us. chimps have a brain one quarter the size of humans, but share about 96% of the same DNA.

these instincts seem to still be with us. chimps have a brain one quarter the size of humans, but share about 96% of the same DNA.

Brains do not think.

Brains do not think.

hmmm... maybe not, in some cases :P try doing without one and see how you go...

are you thinking of the aristotlean view of the heart as being the centre of thought, with the brain just there to cool the blood like a radiator?

anyway, isn't thinking just an epiphenomenon of having a neocortex?

hmm, maybe N. Korea makes the housing debate moot.

similar to how hordes of M. Eastern savages are going to invade the US at any moment, killing all the adult males and making the women wear the veil... we have to fight that sort of thing... (they will probably also invade Australia, UK and Europe while they're at it, but that starts to sound implausible and won't win votes on tuesday...)

hmmm… maybe not, in some cases try doing without one and see how you go

You cannot prove that we cannot think without a brain. You can only show that thoughts cannot be communicated by persons without a brain. :)

Yes, North Korea is, in fact, going to kill us all.

With a "fizzle" bomb?

I am so scared. :lol:

You cannot prove that we cannot think without a brain. You can only show that thoughts cannot be communicated by persons without a brain.

yes, interesting philosophical positioning, but a lot of work has been done in the area of lesioning and tomuses that segregate functional parts of the brain in live persons, plus animal studies involving decortication etc. the brain is not one huge amorphous lump of white and grey matter, it has structural and functional differentiation, e.g. the 'triune brain', language and motor sections, etc. there are the functions of the hippocampus, the cerebellum, areas of specia1isation for language, speech, etc, the role of the limbic system, not to mention regulation of the endocrine system... and the elaborated neocortex of humans, such as the frontal lobe, which allows for the expression of what we call personality. A frontal lobotomy procedure still permits speech, but affects thought, cognition and mood.

we are posited to have a multi-level 'triune' brain in terms of structure and function, representing reptilian, mammalian and then human levels of brain development as evolutionary layering -- this is perhaps what gets us into trouble so much.

however, some medieval theories posited that the 'mind' and the 'soul' lived in the empty ventricles of the brain...

Just saw something on the plight of the Karen people in Burma.

Half the national budget is spent on the military in Burma. It has one of the largest armies in Asia, although it has no enemies other than its own people. The army are regularly performing atrocities and acts every bit as bad and worse than those for which Saddam Hussein has just received the death penalty.

Life is truly awful in Burma, with malnutrition common. The populace lives in terror from the government. People are beaten, raped, forced to act as human minesweepers and act as porters for the army. 600,000 people have been killed by the junta.

Burma's regime still survives because foreign companies are still willing to invest in Burma.

Interesting how the West doesn't want to forcibly invade these places and instate 'democracy' when there's no treasure troves of resources or other strategic advantage to be had. Or offer to 'stay the course', hanging in there valiantly year after year to make sure justice is done...

Ditto for the shooting of Nepalese by Chinese soldiers as witnessed by Western mountain climbers last month.

Burma's Secret War
Broadcast: 07/11/2006

Reporter: Evan Williams

LEAD STORY
SERIES16
EPISODE 19

Synopsis

While the ruling military junta have been encouraging international business investment and tourism Burma is a notoriously difficult place for journalists to work.

Evan Williams was the ABC’s South East Asia Correspondent and despite the difficulties of access has been reporting on Burma for more than a decade.

Williams spent a month in the Burmese jungle with the Free Burma Rangers. They’re Christian medics who are part of the Karen guerrilla movement. It has spent more than 50 years fighting for democracy.

After two weeks of gruelling trekking Williams and the Rangers reached a village burnt to the ground by the army. Former residents now camped out in the jungle, describe the murder of their neighbours and loved ones.

Williams encounters more refugees fleeing through the jungle as the military launches the most savage assault in 10 years against the ethnic minority Karen people.

It’s not just ethnic minority communities at risk in Burma.

In a series of secret meetings with underground activists in Rangoon and Mandalay Williams hears of the extreme methods employed by the regime to suppress opposition.

Williams also reveals evidence of the regime’s systematic and widespread use of forced labour including children to do the military’s bidding.

Genocide against the Karen people in Burma

Don’t like it, but I can see that clearly. Misplacing value can be great for anyone who stands to profit from it.

The value has been misplaced over the last 5 years, now the value is heading down to where it should be......so misplacing value can also destroy anyone who thought they can profit from it.

I think the NAR would have better results if they used that $40M to create artificial bidding wars on houses in certain areas.

Funny thing how they advertise in the ad:

Contracts for home sales in August are up 4.3
percent1 and the outlook is for home prices to increase next year.

Notice footnote 1 at the bottom and the date that says:

1 August 2006 Pending Home Sale Index—National Association of REALTORS®.

now....look at this article

...and note the date. :lol:

Yes, North Korea is, in fact, going to kill us all.

They, (NK) has developed a new long range missile, the Long Dong.

Yeah, I'm over hearing the public homebuilders are literally choking on their own incentives in an effort to unload inventory. Given the aggressive price reductions it's small wonder buyers are walking away.

Now, I have a problem w/this. A big problem. Trust me I've made obligations I really wish I hadn't. Health club memberships, home security systems, daughter's cell phones! Hell we all have. I guess b/c I'm in the business of earning other people's trust I'm a wee bit sensitive about being viewed as "flaky" by potential or existing clients where financial obligations are concerned?

Walking away from a sidewalk vendor b/c you decided you've changed your mind about that hot dog is one thing, walking away from a 500-750K home is another! I for one would be very careful about getting involved financially w/someone that turned their back that casually on a written contract. (That's just me).

Should these people have done more/better "homework" prior or are they well within their rights as a consumer?

Am I wrong here? If I'm going to make that big of a commitment (yes 750K still buys a pretty nice house in OR) I'm going to have a business relationship with that person. You're not going to get 750K of my money (borrowed or otherwise) without at least talking to me once. No, not your flunky realt-whore, YOU!

Since you stand to make a God knows how big a profit you're going to have to take me golfing at least once? In OR a purchase of that magnitude may not be enough to get you invited to their daughter's wedding but you're sure not going to be some nameless, faceless person.

IF there's a problem and the economic back drop changes markedly, we're going to work it out. In OR if you both can't be happy w/the deal at least you can come to terms about both being "unhappy" w/the deal! But you don't just walk away from a deal.

What a bunch of hicks, huh?

Should these people have done more/better “homework” prior or are they well within their rights as a consumer?

Dinor,

I would say they are within their rights. There is a reason for nonrefundable deposits. If you are willing to walk away from your deposit, then there is no moral obligation to go through with the purchase. This is known in contract law as an "efficient breach." If the builder needs more security, they should ask for a larger deposit.

Glen,

Agreed. Strictly from a LEGAL perspective they are within their rights. From the builder's end there is probably little if anything they can do anyway? Let me ask you this though, if you were in the builder's shoes is this anyone you would EVER do business w/in the future?

I think the NAR would have better results if they used that $40M to create artificial bidding wars on houses in certain areas.

@allah,

Who's to say the NAR hasn't already done this, and the ad campaign is merely Phase 2?

@SFWoman,

RE: ConfusedRealtor, nicely put. His musings and feeble attempts to subvert this blog are incredibly transparent, and to boot, they smell of serious desperation. Surfer-x is wrong - I'll bet the guy doesn't have much money. He's likely a failed IBanker who got into RE when it was "hot" and is now struggling to make commissions. No successful realtor will have the time or motivation to go trolling on a housing bears' blog.

BTW, at the risk of semi-outing myself, the reference you linked to was authored by my former dept chair....The question of infectious etiologies of atherosclerosis is still a raging debate. (Yes, fascinating, I know...)

Who’s to say the NAR hasn’t already done this, and the ad campaign is merely Phase 2?

True. Maybe that was the 4.3% they were talking about in August. :)

It's a great time to give a realtwhore a commision, after all if you can't flip it, you can rent it out. Oh sweet baby jeebus that is funny, rent it out.

Check this out, look at the sales price 540 kern morro bay ca $599K

tinyurl.com/y7qlm3

and look at the rent,

tinyurl.com/ymd363

That's $1200 per month, DinOR or Randy H. can you help with this one? Hmmm, $1200 a month for a $hitbox that sold for $599K?

We could send all the NAR "economists" to Afghanistan - they do stoning, and more, there.

Surfer X,

Yeah that is what we in the "biz" call real lucrative. I just love watching posts on C/L go from "wishing price" to reduced price, further reduced price, lease w/option to buy and ultimately into some stage of foreclosure! Like I say "lucrative".

When it comes to buyers backing out of deals don't anybody get me wrong. I'm not exactly in love w/either of those camps (buyer or builder). In fact they deserve each other. The only point I was trying to make is that buyers have taken this whole process and turned into something as casual as a 'Sadie Hawkins' dance?

These half poured foundations and skeletons won't help anyone, and it's an awful waste of resources. Buyers seem to have treated them as "options". Meaning if they could flip it at a profit then great, they'll follow through. If not? It's the builders problem. Well yeah that's true but look at the ghost towns they're leaving in their speculative wake.

Dinor,

If I were a builder I would probably demand a 10% deposit. If the buyer walks, then you pocket their deposit and sell the home for your cost of construction to make an easy 10% profit.

Glen,

Well firstly...... I wouldn't be a builder. I couldn't. (My parents were married). Secondly during the upswing builders were doing anything to get out of contracts w/buyers claiming the home was "substantially completed" while the buyer was still legitimately getting their loan set up. Even though it may have been nothing more than a foundation w/a sub-floor they already had another GF lined up to pay even more!

So like I say, they deserve each other. It should be disappointing to more than just me that this is level of "ethics" we've sunk to.

SFWoman,

Yeah, I read a Scientific American article about that a few years back. Likewise many cancers are caused by viruses (Cervical being the most advertised).

It's true that you can have a nice virus like the Flu merrily parasiting humans for 100 years before suddenly one of your instances gets a nasty mutation, goes haywire and kills 20M people. After that surge of glory, that version of the virus dies out (or it mutates into a less lethal variant).

As you warned earlier, if you increase the transmission rate in the target population to the point where we transmit the virus before popping off, we've got big problems.

There's not much I can do about that, but baby aspirin and exercise is something that can increase my chances.

Vote against DEMOCRATS

Went the other way this morning, my friend...

http://tinyurl.com/ym237d

For you fiscal conservative types, the Economist had a graph showing how a divided government significantly restrained spending growth. After six years, we now know that fiscal conservative republicanism has left the building.

Surfer X,

Also interesting to note the Morro Bay prop. sold for 140K 10/06/97 so only about a 328% return in 9 years or about 36% a year. I can't even comment further.

surfer-x Says:

> Check this out, look at the sales price 540 kern Morro Bay CA $599K
> That’s $1200 per month, DinOR or Randy H. can you help with this
> one? Hmmm, $1200 a month for a $hitbox that sold for $599K?

Back when I was a kid my Dad wouldn’t make an offer to buy any home or apartment unit that was higher than 100x the monthly rent. This place sold for almost 500x the monthly rent (over 40x the annual rent)!!

I don’t need to plug this in to Argus to get an idea what a bad investment this in since if paid cash for the place you would probably average far less than a 1% annual return on your money…

The Morro Bay return is similar to the return that most Bay Area “investors” are getting since Bay Area homes cost about twice as much and have rents that are twice as high (my sister is paying a little over $2K a month to rent a place in San Mateo that would sell for a little over $1mm)…

Riffing through my blogroll this morning and found that James Picerno (the Capital Spectator) attended a Greenspan speech yesterday in Washington.

I wonder if AG isn't doing his part to discourage a panic, or perhaps merely defending his 'legacy'. He continues his moderate comments regarding housing and essentially characterises it as a retrenchment.

http://capitalspectator.com/

If Jim Burger at CNN Money is correct in using builders' confidence levels as a leading indicator for Wall Street (the correlation chart is terrifying) we're in for some truly rough weather.

Client today tells me he is working with trump to address massive foreclosures. Movie theaters will be hosting the events simulatneously around the country. The Chinese are actively involved and are expected to be eager buyers.

"I don't need to plug this in to Argus"

FAB, so true. I don't need to slide down a bannister full of razor blades either. Even a lay person can see no upside to this "scenario". I'm sure this specuvestor borrowed the $'s under the false pretense of being an owner occupier. Rather I should say, I would be surprised if he hadn't?

doc1,

Can you kind of expand on that a little? You're not kidding us are you? Movie house presentations, like WWll movie shorts to buy "war bonds"?

Sf woman, I think our ability to learn more about CV disease and even infectious processes is severely curtailed due to the limited number of autopsies being performed in hospitals. when the 350lb Sumo wrestling obese physique is showcased for the Nation on Monday Night Football, what do you expect? (Except an obese population.)

I don’t need to plug this in to Argus to get an idea what a bad investment this in since if paid cash for the place you would probably average far less than a 1% annual return on your money…

lol. Well, there is an exponent in the equation, so it still may be worth it. That is, if you've got a couple hundred years of planning horizon over which you can bear a negative NPV.

Sf Woman, my friend had an excellent solution to the personal responsibility issue. If a smoker, drinker, reckless behavior, obese, etc individual died, he would label cause: "Chronic Suicide". Insurance companies loved him. Families of deceased did not.

my friend had an excellent solution to the personal responsibility issue. If a smoker, drinker, reckless behavior, obese, etc individual died, he would label cause: “Chronic Suicide”. Insurance companies loved him. Families of deceased did not.

@doc1,
You and I are on the same page on this one. We need to change our system of healthy individuals subsidizing the health care of people who take no individual responsibility for their health.

how would you distinguish between a “too many french fries” induced heart attack and one that was “in the genes” ? In other words, is our knowledge and diagnostic ability at that level of resolution yet?

Short answer is, no, there is currently no test to distinguish genetic vs. environmental factors for CV disease. However, there's often a strong family correlation (if your parents had heart disease, your chances of having heart disease are much, much higher).

That being said, individuals who know they are at risk should certainly be doing everything they can to reduce risk: lose weight, quit smoking, exercise, take blood pressure meds, etc. I cannot begrudge them if they develop heart disease. In fact, they are precisely the people the health care system should be taking care of better with education, prevention measures, etc. It's people who eat french fries despite weighing in at 350lbs, have Big Gulps despite diabetes, or smoke who I have little sympathy for.

New Thread Election ‘06

Have at it. Please read the "rules of engagement" in the topic thread. They're short.

skibum,

On the......ahem, "reckless behavior".

Our ins. provider has programs to help w/obesity, smoking etc. and they actively work w/people that are sincerely attempting to make changes in their lives. What makes no sense is all of the "extreme sports" nut cases that bungee jump off of railroad bridges on to...... rocks? I know you love skiing but I strongly suspect you go about it in a sensible way! Proper training, equip. etc. Here in OR hardly a day goes by without some sort of fatality or permanent injury. This past summer we had six drownings in the same week. Maybe I'm tired of subsidizing "these" assclowns?

Epitaph:

Joe/John/Jill LOVED base jumping/whitewater rafting/hunting and he/she wouldn't have wanted to "go" any other way! It was their favorite thing to do, right up until.......

Born: 00/00/0000

Died: 00/00/0000

Did you want that in pre-cast concrete or upgrade to granite?