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Buyer pool drying up


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2007 May 8, 1:52am   12,862 views  157 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

dried up lake

If lending standards had remained steady, then we would have a pipeline of people who spent the past 5 to 10 years saving for a down payment. Instead, they already got that house, and the savings don't exist. So, if we go back to decent lending standards (i.e., 20% down), we have a LONG wait before we have significant numbers of new buyers, on top of all of the other reasons you cite.

Bob L.

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107   HARM   2007 May 8, 8:08am  

Ok, is this a RE/economics blog or a sex blog? I'm no prude, but anyone who wants to discuss stuff like asian sex tours can find a willing audience over at a number of, um, "dating" sites, m'kay...?

108   DinOR   2007 May 8, 8:09am  

Just to be clear, even though my O/O neighbor would prefer to have me at least stay on as a renter, this would be something of a set-back for him. It would still mean he had yet another J.O Specuvestor to deal with. Getting the "investors" out and owners in means more to him than anyone cashing out with BFSOC (big fat stacks of cash)! Even if it improved his comps.

(for those following the on-going saga)*

109   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 8:13am  

Crap! Why did I book my Nassau trip for two? Stupid stupid stupid

110   astrid   2007 May 8, 8:14am  

"In Fed-speak, what he meant was: your expression of unqualified marital bliss was strongly influenced by fear of consequences due to any contrarian assertions. "

Not that there's ever anything wrong with that. You can't build Peter P level charisma by shooting your keyboard off like me.

111   azrob   2007 May 8, 8:15am  

responding to my earlier post you a**hat?

My earlier post was about a real estate commercial... ie it had something to do with this blog... You were just lobbing personal attacks as that is the highest form of prose your gutter mind is capbale of.

112   Randy H   2007 May 8, 8:19am  

GC

A correct response would have been:

* "I am sorry and I was completely out of line. I don't know what's wrong with me, but I'll consider seeking out help".

Or, you could have just gone away for a while until we've all but forgotten about your crap. You know, like back when I banned you before, for overtly offensive pedophilia references? It's a real pain to keep blocking all your IPs, so just cut the crap and apologize.

113   Vicente   2007 May 8, 8:20am  

GC wants to be a woman,

Senora V had a strong desire for a house in 2005, constantly window-shopping. I put my foot down on that, seemingly just fighting a delaying action for several months. Me I just knew California was nuts after having moved from a state where a million dollars would buy you a REAL mansion complete with servants.

Around then we found Patrick.net and similar sites. Then I had all the hard facts and analysis like the main page here, or Schiller, or Piggington. Now she's the one baggin on friends who bought houses during the Crazy Years. I have to remind her not to ridicule them too mercilessly.

114   DinOR   2007 May 8, 8:26am  

"friends who bought houses during the Crazy Years"

That would be "The Time of Madness" (2003-2005) :)

115   Claire   2007 May 8, 8:31am  

Lunarpark - rent wishing prices for Mountain View have suddenly gone through the roof - i.e. from $2600 to $3300, 3 bed 2 bath. It'll be cheaper to rent in Los Altos soon!

I'm hoping this is just a blip though - one person has a property up for rent with a minimum 3 year lease (they're hoping aren't they - who wants to tie themselves down with a lease that long?)

116   Peter P   2007 May 8, 8:31am  

So I assume you would partake in the one activity that is natural to all men, that is, to meet women wherever you go.

GC, I guess your mind is wired different. In Asia, all I can think of is food.

117   astrid   2007 May 8, 8:32am  

GC,

You can't pretend that you didn't know that particular phrasing, on its face, would be interpreted by 99% of the population as a prostitution trip. If you wanted to imply what azrob originally said, you could have used original wording.

118   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 8:32am  

Or worst yet, who wants to be tied to a tenant that long. I know from first hand accounts that it is a pain to try to bribe a tenant to move if you want to take the house back and it is under a lease. That is stupid.

119   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 8:33am  

So I guess happy endings are off topic....

120   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 8:34am  

Peter, I'm seeing a recurring theme with you.

121   lunarpark   2007 May 8, 8:36am  

Wow Claire, that is nuts. Hopefully it is just a blip. My rent went up $50 at the beginning of the year (Cupertino). I'm fine with the $50-$100 increases but I refuse to be sucked back into the dotcom $250+ increases. I don't even love it here :(

122   astrid   2007 May 8, 8:40am  

(Though I really should step away from this blog for a while...a little too much objectification of women going on the other night and toed over that fine line between delightfully saucy openmindedness and crass erroneous stereotyping.)

123   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 8:42am  

I guess that's just another thing Astrid and I disagree on :(

124   Peter P   2007 May 8, 8:49am  

Peter, I’m seeing a recurring theme with you.

What theme?

125   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 8:50am  

food, silly.

126   Peter P   2007 May 8, 8:52am  

One example is the small razorclam that you’ll only find in eastern China, near Shanghai.

I had razorclam last month in Mountain View.

127   Claire   2007 May 8, 9:09am  

I'm wondering if those rental prices aren't people trying to cover their albatross mortage payments - I am waiting to see if they get relisted for lower or put on the mls

128   Vicente   2007 May 8, 9:31am  

"Time of Madness"... I like it. Existing Patrick.net terminology?

I'm shopping for a new rental house now. Unfortunately where I live the FBs are still clinging stubbornly to shreds of hope the Big Spring Buyer Bonanza will rescue them, so I haven't yet seen a flood of new rental listings. Probably see it later in the summer, when I want to be moving next month. Arrrgh!

129   skibum   2007 May 8, 9:55am  

lunarpark and Claire,

Looking at the rental price tracker on patrick.net itself, there's no apparent spike in rental prices I can see. I wonder if there are a few stray FBs trying to rent out places after failed attempts at selling at their "wishing prices."

130   Claire   2007 May 8, 10:07am  

skibum - the rental properties on Patrick.net have not changed over the last few days - I think it might need updating (or there's a problem) - also look at Craigslist - South Bay AND Penninsular - it has only been over the last few days that I have seen the properties appear - however I am concerned that other would be LL's will see these prices and think that these are the going rates and price accordingly (and then my LL sees these wish prices and hikes mine too)!

131   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 10:07am  

GC, in reading Randy's post I get the impression that he is not smiling, nor is he trying to be funny.

132   skibum   2007 May 8, 10:20am  

Claire, I did as you suggested, and to me the rents seem about what I would expect, although I haven't been looking in quite a while. In fact, I noticed that one of the more expensive units in San Mateo:

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/326928928.html

was listed for sale not too long ago, if I'm not mistaken.

133   sfbubblebuyer   2007 May 8, 10:23am  

Speaking of 'spiking', did anybody see CFC today? Jumped up 7%!

WTF?

134   sfbubblebuyer   2007 May 8, 10:36am  

I just looked at CraigsList and I saw things about the same as I remember them recently...

There are always a few 'wishful thinkers' with prices so high you KNOW they're trying to cover their interest only ARM nut. :D Like the fool trying to rent out a Pacifica house for 5k. Riiiiight.

135   Claire   2007 May 8, 10:43am  

I am looking at Mountain View specifically - the normal price for a 3bd 2 bath was $2400-2600 until recently (not including the apartment unit guys who were asking $2100) now the majority of them are asking north of $2800, some over $3000, although there are not many rentals out there so it is skewing the data maybe.

136   Claire   2007 May 8, 10:47am  

Also, I am looking where these properties are located and the ones in the not so good areas are now asking prices that used to be asked for the better areas.

137   sfbubblebuyer   2007 May 8, 10:48am  

Claire,

I almost never get MV rentals popping up on my craigslist search thanks to the "dogs" clause I always have clicked. They may have boosted the asking prices if they are seasoned landlords for the 'school season' figuring people moving to MV to get a decent school system need to be in in the next few months, and will drop the rates if they don't fill them by August.

138   Claire   2007 May 8, 10:51am  

Mind you I am looking in a very narrow range, so it could be overall they are not much different, but for my search specifications prices seem to be spiking (although a couple more of sub-$3000 properties are now listed).

139   Claire   2007 May 8, 10:56am  

SFBubbleBuyer - maybe, I have also noticed a couple of them listed several times, and they are starting to allow small pets! I don't allow the "no pets" to worry me. If they are desperate they will waive that. In fact our landlord did and I don't think he has regretted it as we have been here 4 and half years now! I find it amusing now that some properties in Los Altos (better school district) are asking for less than Mountain View ones. Which is kind of whacky!

140   Paul189   2007 May 8, 11:13am  

In Chicago, I see plentiful rentals and of course, thousands of condos for sale.

141   astrid   2007 May 8, 11:49am  

Wow, sounds like we're all friends in agreement (of disagreement).

GC,

Sadly, no. When I was young, my extended family suffered a mass Hep A infection from uncooked razor clam...we haven't served it since. I heard it's quite delicious though.

142   Peter P   2007 May 8, 12:12pm  

But the ones I was talking about are elongated with thinner and crisp shells. You will need to thoroughly cook them.

Yep, I had those in Mountain View. Thin with crisp shells.

I even saw razor clam sashimi, but I felt like having them cooked that day.

143   azrob   2007 May 8, 1:19pm  

GC:

If you didn't mean it as an insult, then I apololgize for insulting you back. I am a lingust. I speak spanish and protuguese, some understanding of chinese and thai. I was married for 5 years and my ex is venezuelan, so my trips to south america were as a couple, and we lived in mexico for a year. I don't go to asia for prostitutes, anyone who can learn a conversational amount of chinese or thai, and takes the time to understand the culture will find better things to do with their time then whore around.

144   Different Sean   2007 May 8, 1:28pm  

Interestingly, rental vacancy rates here are supposed to be at a low, being less than 2% -- something like 1.7%. I'm not sure of the reason for that. It may even be a fake figure cooked up by the REI. But because supply is meant to be tight, the REI umbrella body is encouraging all RE agents to push up rents by 5-10%. This could well be an economic response to suckers people paying too much for investment properties over the last 5 years, and since capital growth manifestly isn't there, they have to crank rents to compensate, and have to fabricate some reasons to do it.

145   SP   2007 May 8, 4:28pm  

What is a provocateur?

A $40-word that means 'jackass'

SP

146   Philistine   2007 May 8, 5:25pm  

Rents here in NYC continue to climb as the metro are continues to have much higher demand than supply. Also seems over the last few years that more and more hipsters with kids are choosing to stay and raise their brats in the city instead of moving out to suburbia as was once traditional. Apparently a '50s Cape Cod-style in Long Island is a fate worse than death.

I'm getting so tired of the stroller brigade that is taking over my neighborhood sidewalks that I'm able to sympathize with the elderly Italians in the neighborhood that complain about us upstarts moving in. They literally give The Evil Eye to anyone walking around under the age of 40 who wears skinny jeans/tight T-shirts/converse/holding a latte.

Hey, neighborhoods change, but now it's like rents are going up just because these breeders want to have their cake and eat it, too. They act like NYC is such a logical place for The Children. They, of course, don't send their precious cargo to the local PS107; instead, private schools are de rigeur, if not de facto. Where all the money comes from, I have no friggin' idea, and I see lots of the mom-hipsters roaming around during the day, obviously without jobs, yet shelling out top dollar rents to live here.

Outrageous.

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