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Bubble modeling?


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2006 May 2, 2:57pm   19,035 views  251 comments

by totoro   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Hello,

Not sure if this has been discussed here or not, but I recently came across the following report from HBSC Global Research. It’s a pretty comprehensive analysis of the US housing market based on a model called HomePulse, which they developed and have made publicly available. I've linked the spreadsheet below also. There is so much data, buttons and knobs to play with that I haven't been able to even scratch the surface on it. I think there are some sharp minds on this forum - it would be interesting to see some discussion of this work.

HBSC Report (PDF, large)

HomePulse model (Excel)

#housing

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55   Peter P   2006 May 3, 4:36am  

Young boys are less likely to race around in a big heavy slow truck than a fun to drive little fuel efficient car. Young drivers of big SUVs are also less likely to drive drunk since they can stretch out and sleep it off in the SUV after doing shots at a party…

Young boys should not be allowed to drive unsupervised, period.

56   Peter P   2006 May 3, 4:45am  

I still think that the excess energy of young people could be put into better uses. We also need to impose more discipline and structure on them.

57   astrid   2006 May 3, 4:46am  

FAB,

Yes, but SUVs have below average handling and braking. They're also top heavy. In the hands of an inexperienced driver who don't know how to properly handle an SUV, they'll be more accident prone.

Young and inexperienced drivers are more accident prone compared to more experienced drivers. Compared to other vehicle types, SUVs will inflict more damage on any vehicle/pedestrian who collide with them.

So while there may be less temptation to speed or DUI, the sheer mechanics and size of SUVs will make them dangerous for teenage drivers and anyone unfortunate enough to be involved in a collision with them.

58   Peter P   2006 May 3, 4:48am  

I am all for restricting teenage drivers to one type of driving: backseat.

59   astrid   2006 May 3, 4:50am  

Peter P,

I think teenagers should get mopeds. Those are much cheaper and appropriate for the teenagers' usually short distance travel needs. Schools can also save a lot on parking space.

60   Peter P   2006 May 3, 4:52am  

I think teenagers should get mopeds. Those are much cheaper and appropriate for the teenagers’ usually short distance travel needs. Schools can also save a lot on parking space.

True, but they are not safe either.

I just think that teenagers should learn the concept of responsibilities and consequences before driving.

61   astrid   2006 May 3, 4:55am  

Scott, that particular line looks just like traditional chef's knives. Their Japanese influenced lines are pretty ugly though, but much cheaper.

"ok… Mac blades are ugly. You should get one of the other blades you linked to (KD or HD)."

I know! I'll HELOC...oh, oops.

62   astrid   2006 May 3, 4:55am  

Peter P,

But if you cuddle the teenagers too much and don't let them make their own mistakes, they'll never grow up.

63   requiem   2006 May 3, 4:56am  

Driver death rates for things like Camrys and Jettas are similar to Suburbans, and about half that of things like the Ford Explorer. I'm pulling this from an old New Yorker article:

"Big and Bad: How the S.U.V. ran over automotive safety."
http://www.gladwell.com/2004/2004_01_12_a_suv.html

Looking over a chart the article provides, safety seems to correlate more to model than to form factor. (Or possibly it is related to buyer psychology; certain makes attract certain drivers.)

64   Peter P   2006 May 3, 4:58am  

Looking over a chart the article provides, safety seems to correlate more to model than to form factor.

Mostly because of the correlation between model and driver behavior.

65   Peter P   2006 May 3, 4:58am  

But if you cuddle the teenagers too much and don’t let them make their own mistakes, they’ll never grow up.

I guess you are right.

66   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:00am  

BTW, Toyota Avalon is a pretty good car. I test drove one just for the fun of it. This thing has some power (270hp)!

67   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:03am  

It's a FWD. :) Get yourself into a WR-X, pronto!

68   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:04am  

Isn’t that about the practical limit for a front wheel drive car?

About right... what is the point of front-wheel-drive anyway?

69   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:04am  

It’s a FWD. Get yourself into a WR-X, pronto!

Huh? Suburu?

70   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:07am  

Peter P,

Yup, teeny little car, great big engine and brakes. AWD is the way to go!

FWD is more energy efficient and safer for inclement weather.

71   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:09am  

FWD is more energy efficient and safer for inclement weather.

I think AWD is safer. I agree that AWD is the way to go but large AWD sedans are quite expensive.

72   DinOR   2006 May 3, 5:09am  

FAB,

We've enacted a few laws here in OR that are making a difference. Mandatory driver's ed. and their lic. is basically a "provisional" lic. If they get into any trouble between 16 and 18 they're walking until they're 21. It seems to be helping along with the sober grad. parties.

73   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:14am  

The Suburu wagons are not expensive, and they all have full time AWD.

Audis quattro also have a good reputation, probably slight edge over BMW's AWD solution.

74   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:16am  

Scott,

That's why I call the 3 series Civics with RWD. (mostly joking though, the ones with the bigger engines are nice)

75   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:20am  

I heard the X3 is a sucky vehicle though. But hopefully BMW will extend that system to its sedans.

76   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:20am  

We’ve enacted a few laws here in OR that are making a difference. Mandatory driver’s ed. and their lic. is basically a “provisional” lic. If they get into any trouble between 16 and 18 they’re walking until they’re 21. It seems to be helping along with the sober grad. parties.

That is better. :)

77   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:21am  

Scott,

Something like 1/3 of the threads on this blog eventually turns to car talk. It's a good thing. Who knows, we might be forced to live in them one day. :)

78   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:22am  

Are used Audi A8s any good? I am very worried about buying used European cars.

79   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:24am  

Peter P,

We could just turn America into a Muslim theocracy. Then we'd get rid of women drivers, severely limit underage driving, and no more alcohol!

80   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:25am  

We could just turn America into a Muslim theocracy. Then we’d get rid of women drivers, severely limit underage driving, and no more alcohol!

Alcohol is necessary in cooking. Think Steak Diane.

81   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:26am  

A8s are kind of an awkward car. A6s are really adequate for luxury car type needs.

82   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:26am  

Pork is important too!

83   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:26am  

Lexuses are the gold standard, if you want reliability and safety.

84   Joe Schmoe   2006 May 3, 5:33am  

All I know is that my next car will be a BMW 335. I am just trying to resist the temptation to buy it for as long as possible.

85   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:37am  

"Don’t be worried about used European cars, depending on the year."

I don't know, I've heard a lot of unhappy noise re the new beamers and MBs. The mid to late 90s seem to have the best word of mouth going for them.

Joe,

If you're looking for used vehicles, SQT says you may be able to get a 5 series for similar or less amount than a similar age 3 series.

86   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:38am  

Scott,

Maybe you can move to the Elysian fields of Tennessee :)

"Alas most new house “2 car” garages are really just 1.5 car garages."

Especially if they try parking a Suburban AND a HUMMER in them.

87   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:46am  

You forgot that you can also get a used 7 series for similar price to a 3 series.

Is a used 740iL/750iL any good in terms of reliability? What is a good vintage?

I always like to increase the average weight of my cars. :)

88   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:46am  

Go diesel!

No good USED diesel with California emission yet. :(

89   Randy H   2006 May 3, 5:53am  

I know friends with an A6 and a Jetta who both have had problems; my g/f has a Passat and the interior lining has fallen out (but no other problems).

My wife drives an '04 TT Roadster 3.2 Quattro with DSG. She hasn't had any problems yet, but this is our first Audi. I drive an old reliable 1998 BMW 328i which has about 120K on it and has never had any major failures. I also have a quite old beast (from before they were called SUVs) which I desperately want to get rid of, but not until I find a workable alternative that costs less than $80 per tank to operate.

90   DinOR   2006 May 3, 6:05am  

I can't believe with as many Californians as there are on this blog (and the price of gas these days) no one has mentioned the Chrysler Sebring Convertible. O.K now everyone give out a collective groan. Oh, ughhh. They are serious fun! We've had 2 and I'm thinking about getting one again just for the summer. 2.7L engine (yes they've worked out the bugs) about 220 HP, simple but decent interiors and excellent gas mileage! The only problem that I can see is that w/all soft tops, they are too noisy to use as a daily commuter car. Other than that would you worry all that much where you parked a car you paid 8K for?

91   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:07am  

(groan)

I'd go for a MINI Cooper convertible or an S2000 or a RX-8 convertible, and damn the absence of trunk space!

92   Peter P   2006 May 3, 6:12am  

I can’t believe with as many Californians as there are on this blog (and the price of gas these days) no one has mentioned the Chrysler Sebring Convertible.

I feel safer in a non-convertible...

93   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:12am  

"I’m really bad at selling stuff. For me 3 is ideal — street car, race car, tow vehicle. 5 is too many. I’m still trying to convince my g/f to sell her Passat and buy my M3"

If M3 is not the race car, what is?

94   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:13am  

Peter P,

You're missing out on a major California intangible TM! Idiots in NYC and DC buy convertibles, and then drive with the top up for 85% of the time.

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