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Bubble modeling?


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2006 May 2, 2:57pm   19,028 views  251 comments

by totoro   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Hello,

Not sure if this has been discussed here or not, but I recently came across the following report from HBSC Global Research. It’s a pretty comprehensive analysis of the US housing market based on a model called HomePulse, which they developed and have made publicly available. I've linked the spreadsheet below also. There is so much data, buttons and knobs to play with that I haven't been able to even scratch the surface on it. I think there are some sharp minds on this forum - it would be interesting to see some discussion of this work.

HBSC Report (PDF, large)

HomePulse model (Excel)

#housing

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62   astrid   2006 May 3, 4:55am  

Peter P,

But if you cuddle the teenagers too much and don't let them make their own mistakes, they'll never grow up.

63   requiem   2006 May 3, 4:56am  

Driver death rates for things like Camrys and Jettas are similar to Suburbans, and about half that of things like the Ford Explorer. I'm pulling this from an old New Yorker article:

"Big and Bad: How the S.U.V. ran over automotive safety."
http://www.gladwell.com/2004/2004_01_12_a_suv.html

Looking over a chart the article provides, safety seems to correlate more to model than to form factor. (Or possibly it is related to buyer psychology; certain makes attract certain drivers.)

64   Peter P   2006 May 3, 4:58am  

Looking over a chart the article provides, safety seems to correlate more to model than to form factor.

Mostly because of the correlation between model and driver behavior.

65   Peter P   2006 May 3, 4:58am  

But if you cuddle the teenagers too much and don’t let them make their own mistakes, they’ll never grow up.

I guess you are right.

66   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:00am  

BTW, Toyota Avalon is a pretty good car. I test drove one just for the fun of it. This thing has some power (270hp)!

67   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:03am  

It's a FWD. :) Get yourself into a WR-X, pronto!

68   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:04am  

Isn’t that about the practical limit for a front wheel drive car?

About right... what is the point of front-wheel-drive anyway?

69   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:04am  

It’s a FWD. Get yourself into a WR-X, pronto!

Huh? Suburu?

70   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:07am  

Peter P,

Yup, teeny little car, great big engine and brakes. AWD is the way to go!

FWD is more energy efficient and safer for inclement weather.

71   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:09am  

FWD is more energy efficient and safer for inclement weather.

I think AWD is safer. I agree that AWD is the way to go but large AWD sedans are quite expensive.

72   DinOR   2006 May 3, 5:09am  

FAB,

We've enacted a few laws here in OR that are making a difference. Mandatory driver's ed. and their lic. is basically a "provisional" lic. If they get into any trouble between 16 and 18 they're walking until they're 21. It seems to be helping along with the sober grad. parties.

73   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:14am  

The Suburu wagons are not expensive, and they all have full time AWD.

Audis quattro also have a good reputation, probably slight edge over BMW's AWD solution.

74   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:16am  

Scott,

That's why I call the 3 series Civics with RWD. (mostly joking though, the ones with the bigger engines are nice)

75   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:20am  

I heard the X3 is a sucky vehicle though. But hopefully BMW will extend that system to its sedans.

76   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:20am  

We’ve enacted a few laws here in OR that are making a difference. Mandatory driver’s ed. and their lic. is basically a “provisional” lic. If they get into any trouble between 16 and 18 they’re walking until they’re 21. It seems to be helping along with the sober grad. parties.

That is better. :)

77   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:21am  

Scott,

Something like 1/3 of the threads on this blog eventually turns to car talk. It's a good thing. Who knows, we might be forced to live in them one day. :)

78   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:22am  

Are used Audi A8s any good? I am very worried about buying used European cars.

79   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:24am  

Peter P,

We could just turn America into a Muslim theocracy. Then we'd get rid of women drivers, severely limit underage driving, and no more alcohol!

80   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:25am  

We could just turn America into a Muslim theocracy. Then we’d get rid of women drivers, severely limit underage driving, and no more alcohol!

Alcohol is necessary in cooking. Think Steak Diane.

81   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:26am  

A8s are kind of an awkward car. A6s are really adequate for luxury car type needs.

82   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:26am  

Pork is important too!

83   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:26am  

Lexuses are the gold standard, if you want reliability and safety.

84   Joe Schmoe   2006 May 3, 5:33am  

All I know is that my next car will be a BMW 335. I am just trying to resist the temptation to buy it for as long as possible.

85   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:37am  

"Don’t be worried about used European cars, depending on the year."

I don't know, I've heard a lot of unhappy noise re the new beamers and MBs. The mid to late 90s seem to have the best word of mouth going for them.

Joe,

If you're looking for used vehicles, SQT says you may be able to get a 5 series for similar or less amount than a similar age 3 series.

86   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:38am  

Scott,

Maybe you can move to the Elysian fields of Tennessee :)

"Alas most new house “2 car” garages are really just 1.5 car garages."

Especially if they try parking a Suburban AND a HUMMER in them.

87   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:46am  

You forgot that you can also get a used 7 series for similar price to a 3 series.

Is a used 740iL/750iL any good in terms of reliability? What is a good vintage?

I always like to increase the average weight of my cars. :)

88   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:46am  

Go diesel!

No good USED diesel with California emission yet. :(

89   Randy H   2006 May 3, 5:53am  

I know friends with an A6 and a Jetta who both have had problems; my g/f has a Passat and the interior lining has fallen out (but no other problems).

My wife drives an '04 TT Roadster 3.2 Quattro with DSG. She hasn't had any problems yet, but this is our first Audi. I drive an old reliable 1998 BMW 328i which has about 120K on it and has never had any major failures. I also have a quite old beast (from before they were called SUVs) which I desperately want to get rid of, but not until I find a workable alternative that costs less than $80 per tank to operate.

90   DinOR   2006 May 3, 6:05am  

I can't believe with as many Californians as there are on this blog (and the price of gas these days) no one has mentioned the Chrysler Sebring Convertible. O.K now everyone give out a collective groan. Oh, ughhh. They are serious fun! We've had 2 and I'm thinking about getting one again just for the summer. 2.7L engine (yes they've worked out the bugs) about 220 HP, simple but decent interiors and excellent gas mileage! The only problem that I can see is that w/all soft tops, they are too noisy to use as a daily commuter car. Other than that would you worry all that much where you parked a car you paid 8K for?

91   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:07am  

(groan)

I'd go for a MINI Cooper convertible or an S2000 or a RX-8 convertible, and damn the absence of trunk space!

92   Peter P   2006 May 3, 6:12am  

I can’t believe with as many Californians as there are on this blog (and the price of gas these days) no one has mentioned the Chrysler Sebring Convertible.

I feel safer in a non-convertible...

93   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:12am  

"I’m really bad at selling stuff. For me 3 is ideal — street car, race car, tow vehicle. 5 is too many. I’m still trying to convince my g/f to sell her Passat and buy my M3"

If M3 is not the race car, what is?

94   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:13am  

Peter P,

You're missing out on a major California intangible TM! Idiots in NYC and DC buy convertibles, and then drive with the top up for 85% of the time.

95   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:16am  

SQT,

Maybe you can persuade him into a G350 coupe. They're a bit more practical and still have good performance.

96   Peter P   2006 May 3, 6:19am  

Sacto’s too hot most of the time for a convertable, and I hate the way they look when they start getting old and ratty. I’ll stick with a hard-top.

Get a hard-top convertible. Crossfire, Volvo C50, ...

97   Peter P   2006 May 3, 6:32am  

Isn’t auto racing a waste of energy?

Are you asking me? :)

98   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:35am  

Is vacation traveling? Or living more than walking/biking distance of work?

We can all live like subsistance farmers, but we don't. Is that all waste?

99   astrid   2006 May 3, 7:27am  

ps,

Funny how that works.

Here's the general opinion from I've read:

Cutco and most other American brands are not worth owning

Wusthoffs and Henckels (I guess Sabatiers are beyond the pale) are *okay* but a bit hefty for regular use and priced high for their quality.

ceramic knives are useful for cutting fruits and vegetables where acidity is a concern. However, they're rather delicate and they may chip with hard use. They can maintain their edge almost indefinitely but take care not to drop them or use them to hack at bones.

Victorinoxs have a surprising following amongst chefs, especially for smaller utility knives. (yay!)

MACs are generally considered pretty good. Their highest end offering is actually not considered as good, because they're too big and heavy for most people. They're actually at a slightly lower price point compared to high end Germans.

Japanese blades are fancy and the realm of knife nerds - if you want to investigate, go to this forum: http://www.knifeforums.com/ubbthreads/postlist.php?Cat=&Board=Kitchen

100   astrid   2006 May 3, 7:35am  

1.99% for one month?

101   Peter P   2006 May 3, 7:40am  

Why the middle-aged oriental housewives in Cupertino need 270 HP is beyond me, but there seem to be a lot of them wandering around in Avalons.

Power is always good.

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