patrick.net

skibum,

I think we can only afford Tahoe or Sun Valley now.

The upside is, Hokkaido is still cheap for skiing, for now.

Gotta dig out my "RUSH" albums !!!!! Right on!

SP,

I really liked your "why inflation" post. I have long thought that there must be a reason that inflation is the norm in just about any country (or currency) of the world.

One theory is that inflation is the grease that keeps the wheels (treadmill?) spinning, because it makes people want to act/buy before the next price increase.

Another theory is, "hey, we keep making all this new stuff, buildings, factories, goods, blah, blah, so we need to print more money or else the price of all the PREVIOUS stuff, buildings, factories (you get the idea) must necessarily fall, and we don't like that".

Your theory is a bit more sinister, but probably not too far from the truth. Under the guise of greasing the wheel and preventing deflation, it seems that plenty of people benefit from having inflation (and especially asset inflation) which is well in excess of what is needed to keep the wheels spinning.

I think inflation can be explained, like so many other phenomena, by the maxim "follow the money",

[Ad T-shirt idea: Front:Inflation Back: Follow the money]

House prices to drop much lower: Greenspan
Fri Sep 21, 2007 2:56pm EDT
VIENNA (Reuters) - A big overhang of property will bring U.S. house prices down further, but it is too early to say if the economy will plunge into recession, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying on Friday.

Greenspan said in an interview with Austrian magazine Format that low interest rates in the past 15 years were to blame for the house price bubble, but that central banks were powerless when they tried to bring it under control.

"It's a difficult situation, there is an enormous overhang on the real estate market," Greenspan was quoted as saying. "Many buildings which just have been finished can't be sold ..."

"So far, prices have dropped only slightly. But it was enough to cause alarm around the world," he said. "Prices are going to fall much lower yet."

"However, it is too early to answer the question about a recession. We simply don't know yet. It depends on how flexibly the economy can react," he said.

Greenspan said deregulation and the introduction of market economies in the former Communist bloc after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 had caused a global boom and a worldwide reduction of interest rates, which both helped fuel the property bubble.

"There is no doubt about the fact that low interest rates for long-term government bonds have caused the real estate bubble in the United States," he said.

"The Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate increases in 2004. We were hoping to bring the speculative excesses in the real estate sector under control. We failed. We tried it again in 2005. Failure," he said.

"Nobody could do anything about it, neither us nor the European Central Bank. We were powerless," he said.

News from up north...at least the phantom bids are exposed in Canada.
Two years back it was exposed in Australia. Wonder how long it takes
to hit the US border.

“The phantom bid is one of the oldest tricks in the book”
MIKE DONIA, veteran Toronto realtor

The secret’s out on phantom bids
Registry, open bidding needed to stamp out phony offer scams, some realtors say
http://www.thestar.com/Ne ... le/256968

The incoming head of the Toronto Real Estate Board has come out swinging against phantom bidding tactics after denying they even existed when she ran for the job three months ago.
“It’s dirty realty, it really is,” Maureen O’Neill said of agents who fabricate offers during bidding wars. She is now calling on the Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) to yank the licences of agents convicted of using phony bids.
“Boot them out, we don’t need them in the business,” O’Neill said. “I don’t think these people should be allowed to sell real estate.”
Phantom bids can be used by selling agents to spark extra rounds of bidding or to spook potential buyers into rushing or raising offers. The practice is considered a breach of ethics under the Real Estate and Business Brokers’ Act of Ontario – administered by the Ontario council – and realtors who are caught can face hefty fines.

Bidding and bitterness

http://www.thestar.com/ar ... le/256092

Many in the industry will say – off the record – that selling agents are attempting to manipulate the process and scare potential buyers into raising or rushing offers with talk of bidders who may not exist.
They say there’s nothing to stop agents in Ontario from doing so because – unlike in Quebec – they are not obliged to disclose bid amounts to potential purchasers’ agents in an open process.
The lack of transparency means some competing bids, especially those that have been “faxed in” to the selling agent, can’t be verified.

Mountain View inventory is up to 148, from 128 a week ago.
The fortress has no clothes. Woot! (as eburbed likes to say)

Perma,

Greedspan is getting my goat again:

“Nobody could do anything about it, neither us nor the European Central Bank. We were powerless,” he said.

At the minimum, he could have gone on record in 2004 and said exactly what he says now: "The real estate sector was out of control". Instead he sputtered some mumbo-jumbo about "froth" in "some" markets. Phew.

full english breakfasts

How about cream tea and scones? :)

justme Says:
SP, I really liked your “why inflation” post. I have long thought that there must be a reason that inflation is the norm in just about any country (or currency) of the world.
:
Your theory is a bit more sinister...

Glad you liked it. But it wasn't a 'theory' but more of an observation. I recently gave a talk on managing instability of state transition under some circumstances - and realized that the central banking system could also be described in those terms.

SP

the thing about politicians and their appointments is that they never say anything extreme or dire or that might cause fright to the horses, until after they leave the job. now greenspan is saying 'froth was a euphemism for gigantic out of control bubble' and 'the war in iraq was all about oil' etc etc

apparently everyone in canada wears a stetson hat, and it's so flat you could watch a dog running away from you for 3 days...

Things are heating up:

Mortgage woes 'exceed forecasts' (They never asked Patrick)

BBC NEWS | Special Reports | Credit Crunch

Okay...as long as I don't have to learn French again.

SP,

Sure , calling it a theory makes it very formal and all-encompassing. How about calling it "one possible factor of an inflation model".

The same would apply to the grease factor or the expansion (anti-deflation) factor.

Actually, my Canadian friends are not celebrating the parity.
Up in Vancouver, it's hurt their film industry, tourism, and exports.
I thought they'd be happy too...but that's what they said.
I'll be on VI in October, and now I don't expect any price breaks.

As a 1/4 Canuck I am quite proud!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canuck

Up in Vancouver, it’s hurt their film industry, tourism, and exports.

But in Calgary they are probably dancing overnight.

I’ll be on VI in October, and now I don’t expect any price breaks.

God bless.

"It is so expensive there. The prices are the same as here but they are in Canadian!"

As a 1/4 Canuck I am quite proud!

1/4 Canuck, 3/4 hoser, 100% Canadian, eh? :)

This should be great news for Crappertino realtwhores - all those Canadians will surely start buying overpriced homes in the Monta Vista school "districk".

Parlez vous Canuck?

SP

O.K is it just me or has it suddenly become "fashionable" to snub Patrick.net? The slightest disagreement and all of a sudden it's "I'm too good for this"?

In most circles (both in the blogsphere and in person) I had (apparently mistakenly) thought the change in the tax code was already a foregone conclusion? Most have conceded it's impacts and the debate (I thought...) had shifted to: "Who is more to blame"?

I was under the misimpression that perhaps we had cross posted and she wasn't aware that cap. gains (previously) were quite a bit higher. Even when trying to be generous, I was still snubbed. Look, I've been wrong on plenty of occasions and I've usually tried to live up to it. Just stand up, stand corrected and move on. But... apparently it's become again "fashionable" to say "you've convinced yourself" (concrete evidence be damned) and turn your nose up and walk away. I gave a heart felt apology for beating it to death and I don't know what more I could have done? Sorry for being a drag. I get accused of this (in person) with regularity so I guess I'm used to it, but I've never had it mean the END of a relationship? Was I THAT wrong?

"But in Calgary they are probably dancing overnight."

Dunno...maybe. I don't know anyone there. However, I can tell you that Canada's lumber industry has felt the decrease in housing starts.

"...those Canadians will surely start buying overpriced homes..."

Lol...yeah, if Google cant's save home prices, then Canada will!

Btw--I just have to snicker at a new Centex development in Sunnyvale, where they bought out a mobile home park on a busy street, then shoehorned in 55 homes. That's 55 homes...for 4.8 acres, or .08 acre lots!
These 1800sqft crapboxes start around $900K. Centex started building this in Sept 06, and they're about 3/4 finished. It doesn't appear many have sold yet. Good luck.

OO,

(From previous)

We get a "Pensions in Perspective" quarterly newsletter and usually it's quite informative. Right now everyone is being SO careful not to stick their foot in their mouth that actionable information has been sparse to say the least? Uh... the industry (and investors) are just asking for a little guidance here and YOU GUYS are supposed to be the tax atty's here so sack up and give us some damn direction!

Why is everyone in the legal depts. approaching this thing like it's "ticking"?! No one wants to hazard a guess so I suppose it's "easier to ask forgiveness than permission"? Oh I... get it! We're not in the tax advising business! O.K.

KurtS,

And... managed to push out affordable housing in one fell swoop! Now I could see if they were putting in a FACTORY (or anything that "might" create jobs) but you see, we've no need of such frivolous things any more.

All we need is houses.

And yes, "shoehorned" would be the correct term.

Not long back (in Wilsonville, OR) they moved out an aging (1970-ish) mobile home park to make more room for In-Focus or Mentor Graphix (can't remember which) and gave residents like uh... two years notice.

Well... (being Oregonians) we'd rather have dilipidated "single-wides" than jobs. We're just funny that way. Suffice to say they made a stink about it and are digging in like true squatters. Only in Oregon.

DinOR,

RE: the bailing out on patrick.net, perhaps it's a bit of "bubble fatigue"???

Les Canadiens (et les Canadiennes) are a part of the Florida Winter season. Perhaps they'll find us more affordable than in years past. Arrive in greater numbers. Stay a little longer. Dine out.

We'll see.

If they had a cooler flag, I’d think about it. That big tree leaf thing just dont give me any vibe.

Obviously the marine color guards thought the same thing, and they flew the flag upside down during the world series. How do you mistakenly fly a flag upside down when there is a leaf in the middle, it's not like the French or the German flag :)

Saw Greenspin's book at Borders today, "30% OFF" - yeah, especially if you pay in dollars...

@skibum,

Well that or "DinOR fatigue"???

Uh, I think everyone here well knows my position on the heap 'um plenty generous tax code where RE is concerned. But I... couldn't let it go?

Like I say though, I was very much surprised (at this late stage in the game) there were/are those still on the fence about it's impact?

HOWEVER!!! If *astrid wants me to get on bended knee and ask her forgiveness to get her back then that's what I guess I gotta' do! Costco gift certificates? O.K I'm an asshole already...! Let's not make a big deal out of it! Alright? :)

Hello Everyone,

I hate to bring up the Zillow fight again, but you guys seriously need to keep a tighter leash on one of your fellow bloggers. I regulalry post on Zillow and your friend Allah/LongIslandBubble is doing nothing but ruining the credibility of your site by writing that Davlid Lereah should be shot and by comparing Lereah to a mass murderer.

And I am not joking. These comments were actually made on Zillow:

http://www.zillow.com/site/ViewThread.htm?tid=7171

Good luck everyone!

http://www.zillow.com/site/ViewThread.htm?tid=7186

"...you guys seriously need to keep a tighter leash on one of your fellow bloggers"

Huh? Since when have we held each other's "leash"?
I'm sure Zillow can moderate its own blogs as it sees fit.

DinOR,

Huh? That particular discussion from last thread is closed, not necessarily in a satisfactory manner for me, but closed. I'm not going to act like a fifth grader and hate you now.

Economic slowdown is starting to show up in the Bay Area numbers:

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_6969164?source=rss

How is it that there are MarketWatch titles - "Credit Storm Passing for Wall Street" - in the MSM now - I was thinking things are only going to get worse, much worse - what do they know that we don't - or is it that they haven't studied the Credit Suisse charts enough?

Claire,
What they are specifically referring to is that the credit markets (the market for buying/selling short term paper) is starting to see movement again, and it's moving away from total lockdown mode. It's all a confidence game. Between letting time pass from the initial fallout, to the lowering of the discount window rates, to the Fed funds rate cut, banks are starting to be willing to loan money to each other again.

I think there is still a lot of trepidation out there, though - more bad news, and it could start all over again.

Claire,

Did you also see Robert Lecoursiere's Bank of America ARM reset charts? As I understand it, CS calculated initial resets while the BoA data set tracks cumulative reset projections to November 2009. The methodology gives a different picture - if anything, it's more disturbing than Zellman's

CR link:

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/arm-reset-charts.html

allah and Randy,

If either of you are reading, you might want to check out this article in today's Sunday NYT that basically goes through the seller psychology component of sticky downward home prices:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/23/business/yourmoney/23view.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

"A Reality Check for Home Sellers"

ECONOMISTS and other humans don’t always see eye to eye. “Economists tend to think people are crazy because they won’t sell their houses for less than they paid for them — and people think economists are crazy for thinking things exactly like that,” said Professor Christopher Mayer, director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia Business School and an authority on real estate economics.

(snip)

Classical economics can’t explain this behavior. That’s because people who refuse to sell their houses for less than they paid for them are violating a cardinal rule of the market: stuff is worth what it’s worth. It doesn’t matter what you paid for it. But when Professor Mayer and his co-author, David Genesove, a professor of economics at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, studied the Boston condominium market in the 1990s — scene of one of the biggest real estate busts in recent American memory — the actual patterns of human behavior did not seem to follow the standard rules at all.

From 1989 to 1992, prices in Boston fell sharply, with condominium prices dropping as much as 40 percent. For a great many of those who bought condominiums during that period, selling could be done only at a significant loss. And, basically, many people refused to sell.

Their study, “Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence From the Housing Market,” appeared in The Quarterly Journal of Economics in November 2001. The professors gathered data on almost 6,000 Boston condominium listings from 1991 to 1997 and showed that for essentially identical condominiums, people who had bought at the peak and were facing a loss generally listed their properties for significantly more than those who had bought at a time when prices were lower.

Properties listed above the market price just sat there. In the Boston market over all, sellers listed their properties for an average of 35 percent above the expected sale price, and less than 30 percent of the properties sold in fewer than 180 days. In other words, much of the market went into a deep freeze as many people held out for market prices that no one would reasonably pay.

In classical economics, that’s not supposed to happen, but the episode did comport with the behavioral economics theory of loss aversion: people have a visceral — some might say “irrational” — hatred of losing money. They try to avoid doing so, even when it goes against their own best interests.

(snip)

What is to be done? Well, if you are holding out for an above-market price to recoup your losses, perhaps you would do well to hear the advice that Professor Mayer gives his own family members.

“If you want to sell your house then you list it at the market price and you sell it,” he said. “If you don’t really want to sell then don’t put it on the market. But don’t say you want to sell and then set the price so high that you spend the year cleaning up every morning, having people walk through your living room and look in your medicine cabinets and reject you. That’s just painful — and expensive.”

Bruce - thanks for the link, I'm thinking Sept 08 is going to be an interesting month - Sept gives all those people time to be foreclosed upon (6 months) after the bulk of the inital resets.

Do other people have a different take on the time lags for these resets to affect the foreclosure market? Or do you think people are going to either be able to refinance and/or sell before these projected resets?