patrick.net

But DinOR,

"These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone,"

Getting on the phone equals hard work :)

Really DinOR, your pessimism is too much. These people have a lot to offer a company. They offer a discrimination lawsuit if they're not picked because they are a protected class now.

Most realtors DREAD getting on the phone! Many simply refuse to do it. Occupying space at an Open House is more their pace. Kieth at HP runs a thread-a-day about realtwhores returning to their their fast food jobs (which gets kinda old) so the CSM article is the first sober discussion I've seen on the topic.

"Getting" on the phone is one thing (getting people to BUY on the phone) is quite another! Believe it or not getting some towing company owner in Hackensack, NJ to buy 50-100k in stock/commodities off of ONE phone call, really is a skill.

One thing I will... agree w/ Dr. Baen on is that these people are migratory. The tough part is there's no "next big thing" (without barriers to entry) for them to migrate TO!

Thank God for the Do Not Call Registry. The last thing I want ruining dinner is some smoker coughing boomer hag calling to tell me it's cold outside so I need to buy some heating oil futures. Yikes!

Some where in the article they made mention of CA standing by to get 9 mil. in "REIC re-training" dollars. What a joke. Most of these people never had any training to begin with?

Man, that IS... an ugly visual!

I'm pretty sure most of these people won't wind up as "strippers" (as Kieth insists) but it would be interesting to see where posters here visualize them winding up?

If they were 1099's my guess is that a new "line of work" (commission based) would allow them to have a whole new run at Schedule C and they could perhaps be of "some" use to their spouse by "bundling" their write-offs? If they wind up in a new "racket" every 3 years they might be able to exploit it to Soc. Sec?

I love that the article even mentions Gilbert, AZ. My poor friend worked at Intel in Phoenix and actually listened about holding off on buying. He had to put up with all the other know it all engineers who thought he was unable to buy. They would make comments like, "Don't worry man, you'll get a bonus soon enough to put down on a place." This guy actually has substantial savings.

I hope my old know it all other friend who actually is in Gilbert got out in time because if he hasn't he's lost all his equity.

"As for McMahon, the Atlanta agent, she still had a nice listing book and plenty of leads when she called it quits. In the end, unreliable buyers, surly sellers, and a lack of office camaraderie contributed to a decision that solidified when home sales and prices dipped. "I was waiting for a time to kind of swing out," she says. She's planning to become a high school science teacher. "

One more for me just because I can't resist. Can someone define 'unreliable buyers'? I know what an unreliable plumber is but I don't know what an unreliable buyer is.

Ha ha, the lack of office camaraderie.... Talk about a nasty visual. Can you imagine a bunch of these personality types trying to share an office during these times? I bet these chicks are afraid to leave the room because as soon as they do, the gossip. She's going to get fired. Her husband is leaving her. She's cheating on.... I heard she has a coke problem..... They're having financial problems......

Getting back on topic....there appear to be several classes of "missing listings". Around here, many newly-built homes are unoccupied yet there is no "for sale" sign in the yard. However, these houses have a lockbox. I wonder is there is some sort of "gentlemens' agreement" to limit the number of for sale signs in a geographic area to prevent depressing the market.

Some of the builders around here (Boise) have taken their for sale signs down and put up for rent signs - I guess being a landlord is better than just bleeding.

"know it all engineers" LOL!

No! Really...?

Btw, I'm sure those realtors are WAY past "gossip" and are actively undermining each other on a daily basis.

"Oh... Susie? Uh... she left the firm, can "I" help you?" (In hushed tones)

Builders routinely choose not to include their listings in MLS. That's not uncommon. I don't believe that the agencies keep previously owned homes off of the MLS to reduce the odds of a panic.

What homeowner would agree to have their home excluded from the list (and invisible to prospective buyers) just to take one for the team? That would only happen if a single bank held ten properties on the same street--a possibility in Stockton, yes, but not probable...

And not to totally trash this post, but is it really all that shocking when a salesperson tells you that it's a great time to buy something? Is there any profession where salespeople are supposed to convince people not to buy things? I'm not advocating sunshine-pumping but the shock at this "corrupt" behavior is a bit overdone, IMHO.

PAR, I agree with you to some extent. But Realtors are agents to Sellers and Buyers (sometimes at the same time). And it always the right time to sell and the right time to buy.

Has realtor ever advised a seller to not sell because it is a "buyer's market"? Or vice versa?

@PAR,

Agree that few private sellers would "take one for the team" that way, but given the growing mass of bank owned REOs combined with not-selling new builder inventory, the not advertised % of total "for sale" inventory could be "quite a lot", don't ya think?

Can you imagine a bunch of these personality types trying to share an office during these times? I bet these chicks are afraid to leave the room because as soon as they do, the gossip. She’s going to get fired. Her husband is leaving her. She’s cheating on…. I heard she has a coke problem….. They’re having financial problems…

See: Glengarry, Glenn Ross

HARM, I agree with you. That's why I included the caveat that banks could be putting REOs in a "queue" to avert market-flooding. However, I'm suspect that the tactic is just a little to cleaver to be effective.

A bank would have to hold a good percentage of property, concentrated in a specific area for the tactic to have any impact. And there's a risk that you hang on to available properties while the market continues to tank. My best guess is that they would be fiercely competing for each potential buyer, but who knows...

Just added to my Netflix list.

sriramgopalan, I don't think we'll find anecdotal evidence to settle the debate about middlemen. There are travel agents who sells trips to Mexico during hurricane season. ("It's a great time to buy!") If you pick any salesman in any profession, you'll find some integrity and some slime. Stock brokers, used car salesman, you name it. I just think that this particular horse is incredibly dead and makes for somewhat boring discussion.

And I also believe that, if you look hard enough, you might find a situation where it is a good time to buy. I bought my mother a foreclosed home last year with 20% down, 15-year fixed rate loan. She's been a renter all of her life. Could she wait it out for another five years and go bottom feeding? Probably. But she's getting old. And rent in her area is more than mortgage payment. Will I make money on the "investment". I seriously doubt it. But it was chump-change to me and I sleep better at night with a roof over mom's head... It was a great time to buy.

Yes, that's a great movie. Very well acted. Lot of star power. All movie buffs should watch it.

In the BA proper, I have very rarely come across a house that is not listed in MLS and only listed on Realtor's websites. Apart from obvious FSBO and foreclosures, of course.

But I haven't been looking hard anyways.

"the tactic is just a little to clever to be effective"

There have been cases where even major lenders (CS in OH..?) where their loan portfolio was HIGHLY concentrated, but overall I agree.

Oh btw, I additionally agree that most "clever little tactics" fall into that category. Kind of like "re-creating" letters ex-post-facto.

Wow, did you guys see the PPT actions today?

MLS is now a joke. The best time to buy arrives when every magazine and newspaper has declared that "real estate is dead."

Yeah ... the reversal was swift. But was it just plain old volatility or PPT ?

In less than 6 minutes Nasdaq went up by more than 1%. I really do not want to believe in PPT manipulating the indexes - I am probably the only bubble blogger left to feel this way. But such moves always look suspicious.

The thing is PPT has not been able to stop any bear market till now. Stocks ultimately follow earnings.

The thing is PPT has not been able to stop any bear market till now. Stocks ultimately follow earnings.

Who says PPT wants to stop a bear market? It only creates selling opportunities. :)

StuckInBA,

O.K... for the last time:

There IS... no PPT, MLS Data is ALWAYS accurate and there's no such thing as a "National Real Estate Market"!

DinOR :

OK OK OK. :-) I know being alone in my beliefs is an invitation to mocking. But hey ... why those digs about MLS and RE ? Am I that outcast now ? ;-)

There IS… no PPT, MLS Data is ALWAYS accurate and there’s no such thing as a “National Real Estate Market”!

There is no housing bubble. There are no American tanks in Baghdad!

"There is no housing bubble" LOL!

Can you still find that web page? Pure genius I tell you!

You know, I'm not saying the market *wasn't overvalued going into what FAB's CT HF buddies described as "end of year window dressing" but I am disappointed somewhat. What do we know about CFC we didn't know in Dec?

DinOR Says:
Really Dr. Baen? Really. Commodities.

They mean the Beanie-Baby and Pot futures market.

"Pot futures" LOL! :)

I THOUGHT I said "sober" discussion!

There really isn't, is there? Regardless of qualifications, no matter how you slice it, 51 isn't a good time to be making career changes. Oh and at that age I guess you can rule out stripper too?

PAR Says:
is it really all that shocking when a salesperson tells you that it’s a great time to buy something

Yes, when they are a _buyer's_ agent, it is expected that they advise buyers not to buy because it isn't that great right now. Specially since these scumbags fancy themselves as "professionals".

The fact that we are not shocked by their dishonesty speaks volumes.

Can you still find that web page? Pure genius I tell you!

DinOR, here it is!

http://tinyurl.com/bpbpf

Ha ha, that is really funny. Not as great as the 'Mission Accomplished' photo that Harm did for us, but pretty good.

Is David Lereah eligible for some job retraining money?

Peter P,

Thanks! I needed that.

PAR,

The "Boiler Room" model for stocks anyway has changed, quite a bit actually. Now they have "marketing firms" that "raise awarenes" among brokers. Usually some OTC BB penny w/ "great growth potential". Then they ask the brokers if they'd want to buy on behalf of their clients. So the distribution isn't directly to the public and the sales guys aren't sec. licensed.

So rather than being "bucket shop" driven it's more a matter of the companies themselves going to these sales organizations to have THEM pump up the stock! Mostly it's a waste of time b/c unless you're RIA you can't touch pennies anyway (most firms now have regs. about soliciting penny stk. trades)

Also the Bulletin Board has a new "rating system" with a skull and cross-bones for no info, a Stop sign for limited filing and a Caution sign for full compliance. FWIW

Makes me wonder if buying is like renting always is - you find places by getting out there and walking the streets. Just look for signs.

I know there's a "public" MLS then there's the RealtWhores' MLS..... it's been that way for years.

Just wondering, when you guys consider a good time to buy a primary residence. For investment it’s different. Investors have to wait for bottom.

Working backwards:

Investors do not *have* to wait for the bottom. The oft revered Buffett makes the point broadly that he doesn't care where the bottom is.

Investors are more aware of, educated about, and prone to accept risk. Homeowners are often dreadfully ignorant that risk even exists in the world.

Finally, there is a simple rule: buy when it makes sense, qualitatively AND financially. It takes a whole-lotta-qualitative to plug the gap left by the simple reality (where I live) that for roughly equivalent housing, all opportunity costs considered (including taxes), rent = about 1/4 mortgage et. al. And 5 years makes almost no difference. I'll even spot you 10 more and it still doesn't make a difference. The sensitivity in the equation at this scale of purchase price rests almost entirely upon that price, not on any amortization or tax benefit.

If so called _buyer's agents_ weren't benefiting from the intentional misperception that they are acting as fiduciaries, then there wouldn't be a problem. But as it stands now it's more like a sleazy drug dealer pretending she's your doctor.

Yes Barb, we think you’re smokin’ dope. And this is one of the country’s “top” realtors? Barb, no one would like to see an end to the violence more than the folks at Patrick.net but does ANYONE here see any relationship between the two? Anyone?

Sure, when all the Marines/Airmen/Soldiers/Sailors return from Iraq and... uh... the other country that we're fighting a war in that no one remembers, they'll immediately want to go out and buy houses and cars!

Just like after World War II!