patrick.net

BOA is buying Countrywide!

skibum,

Don't they already... kind of "own" them?

One of my secret fantasies is Valerie Bertinelli becoming a cocktail waitress to work off her debt to the casino (pre-Jenny days of course)

IRP = interest rate parity
CIRP = covered interest rate parity

The theoretical exchange rate between two currencies (going from memory here) is the amount that allows one to cover the forward interest rate in order to eliminate interest rate arbitrage between the two currencies. You are not supposed to be able to create a synthetic currency forward (borrow in one currency to buy the other) in order to arbitrage a forward in that currency, by CIRP. But uncovered interest rate parity--IRP--doesn't hold in the real world or there couldn't be a yen carry trade, for example.

That's about my limit of real world knowledge. The rest is all bond market sorta stuff. Currencies will be pulled away from IRP by expectations of growth and recession, among other factors.

And there's also the nominal-rate versus real-rate discrepancy which 3 central banks enjoy: Fed, BoJ and ECB. Those banks can force a nominal rate to diverge from the rest-of-the-world's market real rate.

Without rambling on, I think we're looking at a stealth-ZIRP policy being enacted right now. Things will get much worse before they get better, I'm afraid.

Gold has several independent factors that influence its price, only when it is able to break these relationships one by one can it really become the ultimate safe harbor and store of wealth it is destined to be. It broke these relationships one by one in the last few years.

First relationship was with USD. I started building my position in late 2003. It had a perfectly inverse relationship with USD, USD strengthened, it went down, I didn't need to look at the gold quotes, all I needed to do is to look at the USD index. It broke that pattern in 2005 as USD went into a short-term consolidation against all currencies when Bush implemented the one-time relief on all repatriation of corporate profit overseas.

It has another leg in Yen. When Yen went up, gold came down, and this has been very true in all the previous Yen unwinding rehearsals particularly in 2006. It broke that pattern in late 2007. Higher Yen is no longer able to pull gold down to break the upward channel, it marched on no matter what Yen was.

These two breaks marked the emergence of gold as the real money. Interest rate is just one dimension of how money is printed. USD injection in the scale of billions and trillions is happening every day without lowering interest rate. When gold breaks the pattern with the currencies, that means it is seen as a more authoritative recognition as the store of wealth. But it will never be the replacement for transaction because it is simply impractical to go back to gold standard.

Another important relationship gold has is with oil. So far, this link is still fairly strong, but it is not following every dip in oil, like today. And gold is less and less dependent on the oil movement, although I won't say the pattern is broken yet.

When gold does break the pattern of following oil, it will shoot up to unbelievable heights. I am not a gold bug believing in gold standard, but I think right now, I would much rather store my hard earned "wealth" in hard assets like gold, oil, agricultural commodities than any printable currencies. Among all the printable currencies, I would rather prefer AUD, which is a commodity-based currency, and its short-term government bond is giving me a current yield of 7+% per year ignoring the potential gains (or loss, much less likely) in currency appreciation.

BOA is buying Countrywide!

BofA is doing what Countrywide was doing a few months back. We will be here to find out if it was a deal.

Who knows how much debt/risk bofa just swallowed? impossible to say.

I'm so bad at day trading...i bought cfc at 5.50 yesterday (then it hits 4.50). then i lose nerve and dump it all at my buy in price, hours later its at 8.....sigh... I will leave day trading to the pros and continue making money doing actual labor.

It doesn't matter how much debt/risk bofa has, this is just a financial socialism. Under financial socialism, nobody gets hurt (except for the small guys), everyone will get bailed out. The ability to monetize debt under financial socialism is infinite.

It doesn’t matter how much debt/risk bofa has, this is just a financial soci-alism. Under financial soci-alism, nobody gets hurt (except for the small guys), everyone will get bailed out. The ability to monetize debt under financial soci-alism is infinite.

Damn, I am looking to buy more gold and the price keeps going higher and higher. :(

Hello Kitty,

I.... dunno? Why feel bad about it? After watching American Home Mortgage slide to like 24 cents I'm sure not going to fault you! Besides, what's CFC's book value? As far as I'm concerned their RE holdings would be about all they're worth anyway.

yes the 'cfc going under' really did seem to not pass the 'too good to be true rule'.

i have dreams of them going under laying off 100% of staff.......were Im from (ventura co) thats equal to AAPL and GOOG going under to bay area. they are #1 employer in ventura county. massive impact on housing if they do an American Home bk.

HK,

Hardly analytical but... HP had them #1 in their Dead Pool by a huge margin. I had no idea they had that large a workforce there locally? This is an awful situation for those people.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday the central bank was prepared to cut interest rates as needed. What will the Fed do when it meets on Jan. 29-30?

Cut rates by 0.75% or more 9%
Cut rates by 0.50% 52%
Cut rates by 0.25% 34%
Hold or raise rates 5%

21364 Votes to date

Industry Comments on Tata Motors Nano Car, worlds cheapest car

Today was a big day for India’s biggest car maker as Reuters reports that Tata Motors showed their new Nano car at the 2008 Delhi Motor Show. The whole of the auto industry have been commenting on what is said to be the worlds cheapest car, the price of the Tata Nano has been priced at 100,000 rupees, that’s just $2,500.

Some of the comments that have been coming have been very positive, like how Tata has kept to their promise with the cheap price and the style of it as well. Many people also commented that there is a huge market for vehicles between motorcycles and a small car just like this.

Many people in the industry have also said that this is a piece of history, and that they are delighted that it is an Indian that chooses to lead the way.

CFC does thier loan servicing and has IT dept/insurance in ventco/calabasas area. Most of the layoffs have been useless mortgage brokers probably(no loans to write).

I really do not have the mindset to own stocks. It ruins my sleep. Im still trying to switch from etrade and I was researching and found out they consider me a 'big fish'- 900k. in ca that is average. I got all that dough from the RE lottery (although to get that from the atual lotto you have to win 1.8m) anyway....my CD's have performed remarkly 'on target'. BofA should give me 2b to invest (in cd's) and thier 5% return would be better than what theyve been doing (buying cfc @18 for 2b).

Yesterday it was Capital One. Today it is American Express.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080110/american_express_outlook.html

"BofA is planning to buy CFC…"

Easy there boys...

One this is a rumor! and not a public statement.
We dont know if this will ever be...

Second.. even public statements on M&A do not go through and are cancelled.

So I expect the CFC induced orgy to end very quickly in stock market. A surprise cut is needed at this point.

I meant to say ...

A "surprise" cut is expected at this point.

PermaRenter,

I found that incredibly interesting! Now... I can't picture that being a "5 seater" but hey, whatever right? It seems Tata is into everything, telecom, chemicals etc.

I don't know what all the alarm is about? It's not like they're going to use them to make a bunch of seperate trips like WE... do!

Maybe the next bubble will not be 'alt engergy' but instead another stock bubble? To go from 'daytrading tech stocks' to 'selling homes to each other' then back to 'day trading stocks' sounds about right for an economy with a small manufacturing base. But in a recession this cant happen?

anyway i gave up trying to get richer quicker when i sold my POS rental homes to chumps 2 years ago. Now I live the Patrick Killea Lifestyle™ of the independent IT contractor who works half the year and blogs too much. Its awsome! Thanks Patrick!!!

It seems Tata is into everything, telecom, chemicals etc.

Tata is like GE of India. Also, there are many companies in the whole complex that completely independent - have their own stock etc. They just use Tata in their name - as they can trace their origin back to the Tata family.

Most companies are managed very well, conservatively and are generally respected.

So, due to the fact that analog photography has been replaced by digital photography, is silver no longer quite as bright an investment?

There still is a whole lot of silver in the ground here in Idaho. Up in Silver Valley over 1 Billion (!) ounces of silver have already been extracted. I'm sure there's lots more where that came from.

Megan Meier, a 13-year-old suburban St. Louis girl who committed suicide after receiving cruel messages on her MySpace page. The task force includes public safety and mental health professionals, lawyers and legislators.

Megan's suicide occurred in October 2006 but drew attention last year after her mother went public. The teen thought she was communicating online with a teenage boy named Josh, who turned out to be a fictional character in a hoax. A neighborhood mother, Lori Drew, and two girls played a role in the hoax.

Prosecutors declined to charge anyone, in part because no specific laws appeared to apply. But some communities, including Megan's hometown of Dardenne Prairie, have adopted or are considering adopting laws to go after those involved in Internet bullying.

Drew's attorney, Jim Briscoe, has said the girls designed the fictional boy's account and sent the messages to Megan. Drew wasn't aware of the hurtful messages sent just prior to Megan's suicide, he has said. Other Internet users also joined in with cruel taunts before her death.

CFC --- Full Time Employees: 54,655
That does not include temps and consultants on site that will be impacted..
those folks may been impacted early I would say conservativly at 5% of total workforce 10% during the boom or 6K that already got or will get axed.

Add to that the vendors outside the company, the small ones, where 25% or more of their business comes from CFC... They get hit!

And from what I recall in the media $6M/month of advertising dollar going to Yahoo and/or Google goes away.

This is a ripple effect!!!

Whether it is Tiger in SF Zoo or a teenage girl -- taunting may lead to death ...

Maybe the next bubble will not be ‘alt engergy’

Checking the Solar Companies stock...

PE over 100 x next years earnings...

Yes Sire! Thats a bubble alright!

Nuclear is undervalued while Solar is way overvalued.

The only alternative for oil in the next 20-30 years is nuclear.

@Permarenter,

there is a very good energy talk at Caltech by Koonin, you can go online to download the slides. It is all about scientific facts. However, the data he quoted in terms of USD is 2004 USD, so we need to adjust that accordingly. Essentially, what we are burning, or will be burning for the next billion barrels of oil (or carbon) costs $50 (2004 USD). That means $100 oil (2008 USD) is here to stay.

He also concedes that the only immediate alternative available is nuclear. Biofuels (not Foodfuel) are still some time away.

Nuclear powered cars are almost here! Well once removed anyway....the nuke plant generates electric for your plugin electric car.

So there you have the 1950 dream - nuclear powered cars.

BofA might be getting a pretty good deal in trying to salvage what would have otherwise been a miserable sunk cost. I don't have firm numbers but when CFC's stock was a little higher I read with some interest an analysis saying that basically the total share value was less than the book value of the company.

Keep in mind with solar that earnings figures represent a basically untapped market. That's not a bubble, that's investors expecting better market penetration in the future.

Nuclear power is a declining market. In fact SDG&E bills even contain a nuclear decommissioning charge. You have to differentiate between mature or declining markets and young markets. The VC model doesn't take into account current earnings, it takes into account the future potential of a market.

I now don't own any gold, I'm completely out.

mmmm, bookvalue of CFC - that would be their outstanding mortgages to people right and the expected revenue they will get from said solid mortgages to people that are definitely able to pay the mortgages back?

Okay so Hubby getting a bit fed up with the housing in this area being so expensive and he is buying into the "house prices won't go down in this area - Mountain View/Los Altos" - can anyone give me some good rebuttals - I am quietly hoping they will go down, but it taking such a long time!

it = it's - sorry

The best rebuttal, "I'm not putting my signature on that."

Roughly speaking, yes the book value of the company is the assets minus liabilities. Income streams also get factored in different valuation methods. A company like that factors an allowance for bad debts into its books as a liability. I don't have an opinion as to what their book value really is, I just thought the analysis was interesting but since the company was rumored to be on the verge of bankruptcy I'm skeptical. Then again it might have been BofA that leaked the rumor. Believe it or not it happens.

Malcom,

check back with you on nuclear vs. solar in 3 years, and on gold as well. Time will tell.

Hope this site will still be around by then.

Claire :

Use Trulia to show him th e foreclosures and NODs happening in whatever area he is interested in. It will take a long time.