patrick.net

Did E-S-R just show admiration for Stalin's economic policies and Hitler's racial policies? Now I *know* he is nothing but a troll.

BUT THE POWER OF GODWIN, I BANISH THEE! BEGONE TROLL! BEGONE!

That's right, everyone who doesn't buy a house or two is a Nazi.

Hello-Kitty - I think you have a point about the 1930s, the money WAS there, it just was collected into the hands of the bankers. They were called "carpetbaggers" for the heavy bags they had made out of carpet material, for strength, to hold large amounts of money.

And sadly, history kind of falls off of the memory buffers of Americans after 5 years. Thus, if it happened 12 years ago, it never happened. This is for real, it's why Jay Leno can go around "Jay-Walking" and ask people when 9-11 happened and they don't know, because it's over 5 years ago. They honestly don't know. It's really weird but you can test if yourself, just try asking people if they remember this or that that happened over 5 years ago and watch the hilarious deer-in-the-headlights stares.

FAB and Dennis, thanks for the analysis.

I was looking around online and Sandpoint looks pretty too.

Interesting discussion on Craigs List in the housing forum ...... someone's noted that the no. of rentals in the BA listed there is around 500 ..... says that when it's below 450 rents go up, when it's above that, gets to around 500, rents start going down.

Frankly with tech dying and with LL's trying to raise rents 20% a month, the vacancy rate should be skyrocketing.

Peter P,

Cough up the $20 and get that DVD I linked earlier.

I looked at a few places and even an open house or two in the fortress area today. Very little foot traffic except neighbours, as far as I could tell. And that was after the first dry day in a week.

Did anyone else venture out today? There was plenty of overpriced crap available, but with the amount of traffic they were getting there may be better prices coming. I also looked at some smaller new developments (not in Palo Alto), and they were simply deserted,

If I still lived in the BA I'd have spent this afternoon hitting the open houses for the snackies I think. And asking inane questions "Does this house have an upper decker?" etc.

I have an inane question myself: What's an "upper decker"?

By the way, they don't have snacks at open houses around here anymore (or yet?)

Upper decker:

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=upper+decker

HK:

About remembering:

Most of the recent buyers I've been acquainted with either:

had many years or even decades of equity, "traded up" or "traded out" as part of a retirement relocation to places like Sierra foothills, etc. (ie, they were here for it and if 1996 mattered at all, the memory of it was to cashin at the peak);

or else

used the dowry money or family money from Asia, I know a handful of these, in their case, not really taking on big debts/risks, some capital loss maybe but what difference?- the USD economy's been on sale for them anyway;

or else are Smarty Pants who immigrated here the past few years from other parts of the U.S. or other countries. Coddled since schooldays being told how they're the best and the brightest, that's how they got into the elite schools - elite grad schools - Silicon Valley "nameplate" job, because they're the best and brightest. The fact they landed on their feet after, or survived, or recovered from, or came here after, the dot.com burst just reinforces how savvy they are. How could they be wrong.

Doesn't matter that I'm a local all the way back through K-12, etc. The Smarty Pants have been lecturing me for several years now about that I just don't get it on SIlicon Valley real estate, about how wrong I am. After all, they have their elite pedigrees, etc. What do I know, I'm a podunk local from podunk local public schools.

OO:

The only money markets I have are U.S. treasury money markets. FIdelity and Vanguard both have them. You can make regular transfers from the Fidelity treasury MMF into their "Prime" for other investments. You can write checks against the Vanguard Treasury MMF.

I can see how if you first came to CA or the US in mid 90's that RE would appear to be a one way ticket up, but they are gonna find out about the 15 year cycle from peak to peak real soon. 1990 and 2005 are most recent peaks. Based on this most simple of analysis would could say 5 years from now is the next trough....

Right now I agree with the idea to wait until prices actually start going up YOY (case shiller) before buying. So that implies buying a year after the trough.....sigh....

My family got to the BA back in the 1800s and know from personal experience how the RE market goes up and down with regularity - just like the sunspot cycle.

ie, they were here for it and if 1996 mattered at all, the memory of it was to cashin at the peak

That's me baby.

Heck, Florida is even more RE boom-and-busty than CA.

HelloKitty,

From discussion of leading indicators at Calculated Risk - the surveys produced by the National Association of Home Builders appear to be an accurate marker of turning points in housing.

Their scoring breaks pessimistic or optimistic several months in advance of major directional changes and, theoretically at least, give you and I and all our friends a heads-up when everyone else is dozing.

When I see four consecutive upticks in the survey, I'll be fairly confident we've cleared the markets and are in recovery.

Boston Transplant,

Now I'm sorry I asked. Urban Dictionary is in fact a favorite reference site if mine, but of course it has more expressions than anyone could learn in a lifetime. And not watching MTV is not helping me.

I meant to mention, the surveys are reported with regional figures, with CA included in a broad 'western' category. I don't know if the data specifically for SF is available for 'drilling down' to your local information.

Clearly, SF and environs are following their own timetable.

Dennis N,

New slogan: Come to busty California

Owee, I just made an original slogan. Neither yahoo nor google show any matches. Therefore it must not exist :-)

Thanks to DennisN for providing the inspiration.

"Come to busty california"

Here's a question: I'm thinking it might start to become a good time to buy a condo in Florida, or at least browse around and get a feel for how the market is developing there..

What is the best web site to use? Trulia certainly covers Florisa, but the maps do not un-zoom outside each metro area, and I have a hard time gaining a perspective of the place.

"Don't be a boob: come to busty California."

OT,

I just went onto Zillow after remembering that it was a topic of earlier conversation. We all know about Zillow, the one way valuations, up. (NOT !)
Anyway, the house in which I was raised has actually fallen 20.1% since last summer when I last looked. It's still way, way, too high, but at least it's headed in the right direction. I've always expected this area of the Bay to crack first so maybe there is a glimmer of hope for you folks in the South Bay. Keep your fingers crossed.

P.S.
The houses that are selling are selling for 25ish % less than a year ago and sales volumes are lame.
Mind you, this is just a sample from one working class neighborhood. Probably high five figure incomes.

“Don’t be a boob: come to busty California.”

Warning: California contains chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer, birth defects, or other reproductive harm.

(I remember seeing something like this on a CCF cartoon.)