patrick.net

Wow! VCs are sinking cash into Cold Fushion?

I guess bigger suprises have happened in the Universe, but I promise to eat the Empire State Building if that ever works out.

I thought Adobe bought ColdFusion a while ago.

Quantum mechanical tunnelling does work. That's how flash memory works. I'm willing to believe that under certain circumstances two nuclei can fuse even without having the necessary energy to get over the hump via tunnelling. But finding those circumstances is going to be a bitch.

I think this has been ere before, but here's Nobel Laureate Brian Josephson (he of the Josephson Junction), on the issue:
http://www.lindau-nobel.de/MediaContainer.AxCMS?type=lectures&LaureateID=6847

About the first half of the lecture is what is relevant to the point.

But finding those circumstances is going to be a bitch.

It seems like they're already found: Q>>1 in calorimetric readings, fusion byproducts (e.g. tritium production), neutron production, self sustaining reactions up to many hours or more.

REPRODUCIBILTY.

The issue seems not whether it happens, but WHY.

Beyond that, there is the issue of scalability up to reasonable use, where the Tokamak/Laser Implosion folks have a scalability down issue. And that initial several billion investment. Provided ITER ever gets past the governmental conference stage.

Guys, you're missing the general point. There are no privately funded giant stadium sized testing facilities because it is an undisputed fact that private business doesn't fund fundamental research. What private business does is take the technology through different transfer agreements and spins them into commercial applications.

Sure, you can cite examples on smaller scale, but only government can fund the really large experiments. Of course when the answers are discovered entrepreneurs will exploit the technology in the most efficient ways. In this specific case, the reason is not to find cold fusion methods, that will be a social spinoff, the real reason LLL is conducting this research is due to the nuclear test ban treaty. It is a way to test weapons systems without exploding full scale nuclear devices.

As always though, I am reminded that I am in good company here, and you guys never cease to amaze me with your backgrounds. I'm constantly impressed with the talent that I find here.

It was a validating experience to have my friend read my thesis and tell me internal policies supported my points. The main one is that research is only undertaken when it is not competing with the free market.

Peter, yes, there are controls that are required to stop things like politics corrupting the process. In general government sponsored research is only conducted for specific social reasons such as defense, health, and scientific exploration. Consideration is given to whether the research would be undertaken in the commercial sector.

I was about to post that I was skeptical about this, but then I saw this in my inbox:

>> CONGRATULATIONS ON YOUR RECENT CREDIT LINE INCREASE!

Your credit line is now $30,000*

Sigh.

Thanks Uncle Ben! I can almost smell the helicopter exhaust!

(what do you mean I have to pay it back?)

LOL, they see us as the real bailout. Kewp, I think we're supposed to run out and spend every penny, we'll figure out how to pay it back later. You're being a party pooper by asking distracting questions like "How am I supposed to pay it back?"

WTF??? Just as we're sitting here dismissing the notion of tightening consumer credit I stumble across this cluster fuck:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/market-dispatches-111208.aspx

Changes to $700 billion bailout
Just weeks after President Bush signed the government's $700 billion rescue plan for the financial markets, the plan is changing, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said today.

Wall Street wasn't impressed, with the Dow losing 100 points while Paulson spoke.

He said the government will use the remaining $350 billion of the $700 billion in rescue funds to address the dismal consumer situation.

The government is holding off on buying troubled mortgage assets from financial companies, he said. Money that is saved by not buying the risky mortgage securities can be used to help the market for student and auto loans, as well as credit card receivables.

"Illiquidity in this sector is raising the cost and reducing the availability of car loans, student loans and credit cards," Paulson said in a news conference today. "This is creating a heavy burden on the American people and reducing the number of jobs in our economy."

I'm starting to wake up to why we went off the gold standard.

A debt-backed currency is an amazing weapon against the citizenry if used properly; being backed by a promise of future work vs. a hard asset. As its fiat, if someone works themselves to death and defaults, the Fed can just print new money to replace it. Without it even being inflationary!

The following future closings and permanent mass layoffs were reported in California.

Actel Corp. at 2061 Stierlin Court in Mountain View is undertaking a 10% reduction in its workforce. Approximately 60 positions are being eliminated.

Activision Blizzard is laying off 6 employees on Nov. 7 at 4247 S. Minnewana Ave. in Fresno and 20 employees on Nov. 7 at 6060 Center Drive, 5th Floor, in Los Angeles.

AIGM and 21st Century Insurance Co. is closing down and laying off 106 employees on Dec. 26 at 1800 E. Imperial Highway, Suite 100, in Brea.

Americam Airlines Inc. is laying off 28 employees on Nov. 1 at North Terminal-Baggage Service Office in San Francisco.

American Airlines Inc. is laying off 53 employees on Nov. 1 at 400 World Way in Los Angeles.

American Eagle Airlines Inc. is closing down and laying off 84 employees on Nov. 2 at 903 and 835 Airport Drive in San Luis Obispo.

AT&T California is laying off 48 employees on Nov. 23 at 2600 Camino Ramon in San Ramon.

Avery Dennison Corp. is closing down and laying off 22 employees on Nov. 30 at 10721 Jasmine St. in Fontana.

California Fraternal Order of Police Fundraising is closing down and laying off 103 employees on Oct. 31 at 4660 Spyres Way in Modesto.

Calsonic Kansei is closing down and laying off 57 employees on Oct. 31 at 9 Holland in Irvine.

Castaic Brick is laying off 64 employees on Nov. 26 at 32201 Castaic Lake Drive in Castaic.

Chase Home Lending is closing down and laying off 58 employees on Dec. 5 at 2633 Camino Ramon in San Ramon.

Conagra Foods Inc. is closing down and laying off 25 employees on Nov. 22 at 200 Boysenberry Lane in Placentia.

CP Meilland LLC is laying off 181 employees on Oct. 31 at 631 Walker St. in Shafter.

Ebay Inc. is laying off 184 employees on Nov. 1 at 2145 Hamilton Ave. in San Jose.

Exel Inc. is laying off 102 employees on Dec. 8 at 601 Kinetic Drive in Oxnard.

First Collateral Services Inc. (Citigroup Inc.) is closing down and laying off 26 employees on Dec. 31 at 1855 Gateway Blvd. in Concord.

Gate Gourmet is laying off 325 employees on Nov. 2 at 6701 W. Imperiasl Highway in Los Angeles.

Goodrich Aerostructures Inc. is laying off 87 employees on Nov. 19 at 850 Lagoon Drive in Chula Vista.

Greene Tweed is closing down and laying off 13 employees on Nov. 4 at 7101 Patterson Drive in Garden Grove.

Heller Ehrman LLP is closing down and laying off 76 employees on Nov. 28 at 333 S. Hope St. in Los Angeles; 68 employees on Nov. 28 at 4350 La Jolla Village Drive in San Diego; 404 employees on Nov. 28 at 333 Bush St. in San Francisco and 134 employees on Nov. 28 at 275 Middlefield Road in Menlo Park.

Hemet Valley Skilled Nursing Facility is closing down and laying off 104 employees on Nov. 30 at 1117 E. Devonshire Ave. in Hemet.

Hemosense Inc. is closing down and laying off 29 employees on Dec. 2 at 651 River Oaks Parkway in San Jose.

Homecomings Financial LLC is laying off 21 employees on Oct. 31 at 1650 Corporate Circle, Suite 100, in Petaluma.

Indymac Bank is laying off 56 employees on Nov. 12 at 1 Banting in Irvine.

International Paper Co. is closing down and laying off 86 employees on Dec. 5 at 10555 Iona Ave, in Hanford.

Johnson Controls is closing down and laying off 36 employees on Dec. 7 at 1900 Prairie City Road in Folsom.

Kmart Store #4240 is closing down and laying off 89 employees on Dec. 14 at 19600 Plummer St. in Northridge.

Land America is laying off 130 employees on Nov. 14 at 275 W. Hospitality Lane in San Bernardino.

Maxim is laying off 78 employees on Oct. 26 at 3725 N. First St. in San Jose.

Nexframe is closing down and laying off 72 employees on Nov. 24 at 4819 File Court in Stockton.

NYK Logistics (Americas) Inc. is laying off 142 employees on Dec. 1 at 2417 E. Carson St., Suite 100, in Long Beach.

Perotsystems is laying off 58 employees on Nov. 5 at Building 233a M/S 233-1 NASA Ames Research Center in Moffett Field.

Ralphs is closing down and laying off 55 employees on Nov. 15 at 12625 Frederick St. in Moreno Valley.

Riverside Cement Co. is laying off 85 employees on Dec. 10 at 1500 Rubidoux Blvd. in Riverside.

Science Applications International Corp. is laying off 89 employees on Nov. 1 at 10260 Campus Point Drive in San Diego.

Sconza Candy C. is closing down and laying off 82 employees on Nov. 14 at 919 81st Ave. in Oakland.

Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics Inc. is laying off 151 employees on Dec. 30 at 5700,5716,5722,5736 W.96th St. & 9625 Bellanca St. in Los Angeles.

Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. is closing down and laying off 108 employees on Nov. 16 at 19635 E. Walnut Drive in City of Industry and 114 employees on Nov. 23 at 2525 S. Sunland Ave. in Fresno.

Symantec is laying off 172 employees on Nov. 1 at 350 Ellis St. in Mountain View.

The Boeing Co. is laying off 58 employees on Nov. 28 at 2401 W. Wardlow Road in Long Beach.

The Western Union Co. is laying off 54 employees on Nov. 30 at 100 North Point in San Francisco.

United is laying off 59 employees on Oct. 31 at 1 World Way in Los Angeles; 107 employees on Dec. 7 at Los Angeles Int'l Airport in Los Angeles and 499 employees on Dec. 7 at San Francisco Int'l Airport in San Francisco.

Washington Mutual is laying off 51 employees on Dec. 31 at 9200 Oakdale Ave. in Chatsworth.

West Marine Products Inc. is laying off 390 employees on Dec. 25 at 500 Westridge Drive in Watsonville.

Boehner Demands Federal Reserve Identify Recipients of Loans
House Republican leader John Boehner is calling for the Federal Reserve to disclose the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers and the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

Boehner, in a prepared statement, is also calling on the Federal Reserve to comply with a Freedom of Information Act request from Bloomberg News requesting detail about the loans.
...
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn't require approval by Congress, there is little disclosure about how the program is being implemented.

I just hate it when they start talking about nuclear physics.

I just hate it when they start talking about nuclear physics.

The real future of fusion is in Inertia/electrostatic confinement systems like the one developed by Dr. Bussard. The fusion reaction he was after creative mostly helium as a waste product. There would have been very little nuclear waste with his system.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_W._Bussard

It is a huge loss to mankind that this man was not given the resources to develope this technology before he passed away.

creative=create

Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. is closing down and laying off

LOL. I always laughed driving past the Smurfit plant in Santa Clara, which took over National Can Co. years ago. Does a Smurf-it plant paint everything blue?

PermaRenter's list is sad, but I don't find it alarming. Am I missing something? This seems like the norms of some businesses cutting back. For the whole state it doesn't seem like a lot of people.

Is this list part of some plant closing law where companies with more than 100X people have to give a certain notice?

I'm ballparking the list is less than 2,000 people. Is there any measure of how that compares to stable times?

I should think there are 10s of thousands of people losing their jobs in construction related businesses. I can tell you of many hungry loan originators though I doubt they will get much sympathy here.

heh. I find it very funny that just as we talked about not getting a student loan, bam, Paulson is now throwing TARP money to cover collateralized student loans. And so, students are bailed out.

heh. I find it very funny that just as we talked about not getting a student loan, bam, Paulson is now throwing TARP money to cover collateralized student loans. And so, students are bailed out.

I think what treasurey is doing is more sensible than their original crazy plan. Although it doesn't give much confidence to markets. I am glad markets dragged him to this route.

Malcolm Says:
I’m ballparking the list is less than 2,000 people. Is there any measure of how that compares to stable times?

That list is not complete - it did not mention AMD, Applied Materials, Xerox, Synopsys, Yahoo, and a whole bunch of small startups in just the Silicon Valley area. There are also some site-closings here where local branches are shuttered but the headquarters is out-of-state (Motorola, Nokia, Nortel, etc.) so it does not show up as a local layoff unless you drill down.

And there are more cuts coming. Very credible rumors about Cadence, Yahoo, Sun, and another search-engine company that I am not at liberty to mention.

That's why I ask because my hunch was that layoffs are happening in the 10s of thousands.

Then why is my train so crowded?

Mr. Buffet's company is taking a beating. Probably a sign that we are going much lower.

Yea. It IS odd.
During the tech bust, traffic was notably light. I am not seing that at all as of yet. Maybe we are just at the 'announce the lay-off' stage, but the plan is to actually let people go early next year?

And don't forget we are letting 48,000 USPS workers go.

@Duke 10:49am.

Well said, rear view mirror indeed. Agreed, there is a long list of folks preparing to pull their hands out of their pockets.

I understand K street corridor in downtown DC is buzzing, and CRE space leasing, to all manner of white collar pedigreed grifters peddling rolodexes to long list of Fortune 500 and industry associations.

"Get yourself in play now as the money spigot will not flow forever. My fees are only $500 hour, minimum 50 hours. Pay to play boys."

And howdy all, been busy but still lurking every now again. Now that the cocktail party talk seems be sprouting right off the patrick pages, I am getting my fill of schadenfreude elsewhere.

Traffic is notably lighter in the DC tech corridor and beltway bandit government contractor zone. Several "non official" hiring freezes with big tech companies of which I'm aware, something I've not heard of before.

"Uh, we are not saying don't fill those reqs officially, but I'd advise not increasing headcount at this time. You did not hear that from me."

Suppose it's all happening so quickly and so much uncertainty.

On topic, a good friend has zero interest balance transfer offers, 3% fee, 6-12 months continuing to roll in fairly consistently. High 600's fico, high debt to income also.

Peter P Says:
Then why is my train so crowded?

Interesting you asked that - just this morning on Central Expressway through Sunnyvale, I passed a Caltrain with just three coaches instead of the usual five or more, and was wondering if they are running shorter trains. It is a single data-point, so we can't extrapolate much but you may want to see if that's happening with your train.

Malcolm Says:
That’s why I ask because my hunch was that layoffs are happening in the 10s of thousands.

Given what I hear from Cisco, Sun, Google, etc., I guess thousands of contractors are already out of work in the last couple of quarters. They don't make the news.

And how many thousands of jobs _didn't_ get created compared to year 200X - that will show you that the trend has changed direction, with profound impact coming up on traffic, real-estate, local malls, and PeterP's train.

The fact that gas prices are falling at a faster pace, to me that tells me not as many people driving around daily. They're not dropping the price because "they" are nice.

OK, what do you guys think?

Bush just said in 1929 a tariff plunged us deeper into the depression. Funny how everyone can pick and choose which policy did what. My question is, would tariffs not actually help the US economy by promoting production here? I don't buy the argument that we even have free trade now.

Malcolm,
I have to admit I'm a bit shocked YOU're asking that question. May I suggest Randy H's site, www.capitalism2.org if you want an earful :-)
And from Kathleen Pender's column at sfgate(dot)com:
"He [Hank Paulson] is absolutely the most powerful person in the country. Maybe the world," says Wall Street accounting expert Robert Willens.

Hey maybe those laid-off Wall Street guys can give us a hand on foreign policy problems.

The problem with releasing these Guantánamo detainees is that no one really knows for sure whether any one of them is a really bad guy, a sort of bad guy or just a fellow who was in the wrong place at the wrong time. Therefore, a particular detainee's country of origin doesn't want him, the USA doesn't want him and no third party country wants him.

These packaged groups could even be sliced up into "tranches" with the more sketchy characters sprinkled more heavily into some of the lower tranches. That way a lower risk tolerant sovereign nation (in Western Europe perhaps) can have a higher comfort level in what they're taking on in the name of global justice and take down the top tranche. And a country that is less risk adverse (maybe one of the 'Stans or an African nation) might be willing to take the lower tranches in exchange for a higher maintenance fee paid by the US Government. Since Barack Obama has a tremendous amount of goodwill with the international community, who all seem to share his view that the Guantánamo detainees aren't as dangerous or risky as they were originally cracked up to be, I think the highest tranches of these group detainee packages could receive the equivalent of a tripple-A rating from the UN.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDYzNzM2M2QyZmJhZGM1NWNkOWJhODIwMWI3MjI2NGE=

Actually train ridership has been going up because people are giving up their cars.

I have a couple of friends who commute to SF for their job from Peninsula, they used to drive, but now they are giving up driving and taking trains. It is already getting hard to secure a seat if you get on from Peninsula.

It is not just the gas price, having one more car means one more committed maintenance and insurance cost.

My question is, would tariffs not actually help the US economy by promoting production here? I don’t buy the argument that we even have free trade now.

Absolutely not! Tariff begets tariff and world trade will grind to a halt.

We do not need to encourage production here. We should liquidate any excessive production capacity, here and all around the world.

Interesting you asked that - just this morning on Central Expressway through Sunnyvale, I passed a Caltrain with just three coaches instead of the usual five or more, and was wondering if they are running shorter trains.

What time was that? I am sure my train had at least 4 cars.

Alas, I know the statistically probable locations of the train doors, so I can usually get a seat in Sunnyvale.

It is already getting hard to secure a seat if you get on from Peninsula.

Past Sunnyvale/Mountain View it is nearly impossible to secure a seat on a bullet.

Soon enough, I will have to take non-bullets. I have my laptop and I do enjoy a few nice games of Solitaire.

BTW, did you see the PPT action towards the end of the day?