patrick.net

The next big play is to short the Treasury.

But the problem is, when Treasury implodes, what currency do I hold? Is there any way to short the Treasury and get paid in another currency?

Wouldn't being short debt mean that the dollar was stronger?

kewp,

you believe that Treasury can implode without USD implosion at the same time? I'd like to know which country's government defaulted on their debt or had a near default event without the currency going poof?

How can we default on our debt when we own the printing press for the worlds reserve currency?

As long as your debt is issued in your own currency you can print your way out of debt. No need to outright default. But your currency would collapse in value.

More details emerging on SiPort CEO Killer:

Ex-SiPort engineer formally charged with murders; slain CEO's family gathers

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_11023333

1. The engineer owns more than a dozen investment properties whose value has apparently diminished in the real estate crisis.

2. Karen Cai, a professional ping-pong player and a member of the San Jose-based Silicon Valley Chinese Engineers Association, who tried to shed light on a possible motive for the shootings. Cai, who first met Wu at a party ten years ago, said a mutual friend recently told her that Wu had often complained about his boss.

"Before, his boss was good,'' said Cai, apologizing for her English. "His current boss, no good for him.''

3. One coment in the forum states:

Initially, I felt some sympathy for the guy...after all, his wife was laid off by Sun a few months prior, and now the whole family was deprived of the only source of income a month before Christmas in a crashed economy. The reason and the circumstances under which he was fired also seemed kind of questionable. Well...that was before I found that he was just another scumbag real estate flipper who flipped out due to no gov't bailout and house values no longer doubling in value every 2-3 years. Realistically, this guy was probably in the hole by anywhere from $500K to over a mil. With 19 underwater properties, I can certainly see how his job performance would have suffered to the point where the management found it unacceptable. I totally feel the victim's family the and the perp's family who will have to deal with what he did as well as creditors pounding on the door day and night.

P.S. I hope he gets death penalty!

http://www.scea.org/web/index.asp

SCEA

Silicon Valley Chinese Engineers Association (SCEA) is a non-profit professional organization founded in 1989. Today, SCEA has over 6000 members, located in US, Europe and Asia. It has become the largest, the most prestigious and influential Chinese professional organization in the Silicon Valley as well as in US.

As long as your debt is issued in your own currency you can print your way out of debt. No need to outright default. But your currency would collapse in value.

Why? I think a more likely situation is foreigners use all those strong dollars they are holding to make us work for them.

http://www.fbi.gov/page2/may07/bank_robberies051607.htm

Wow 2 year old stats and stories. Here in Chicago, what is going on now with this??? I just went to the bank and they had the door locked until they could identify that they knew me and would then let me in. They said there have been over 7 bank hold ups in the last couple weeks. Where is this news?!?

http://www.fbi.gov/publications/bcs/bcs2006/bank_crime_2006.htm

Here is the last specific bank heist stats - glad its up to date!!

How goes it in SF and LA?

"Why? I think a more likely situation is foreigners use all those strong dollars they are holding to make us work for them."

If you run the printing press sufficiently to print your way out of debt you will get significant inflation. That is the point of the printing - to devalue the debt. And inflation is a decline in the value of the currency. So the holders of that debt end up with nearly worthless paper.

Yes, but aren't we issuing new debt as we are printing?

As long as people keep buying the debt we should be ok, right?

If you borrow, then you do not need to print. You are borrowing money that already exists.

The whole point of printing your way out of debt is that you don't have to borrow the money - you just print it. You can use your newly printed currency to directly pay off the debt.

This flood of currency diminishes or destroys the value of the money.

Alternatively you can use the printing press to fund the government. The amount printed will be equal to the amount spent by the government. If the government spends 20% of GDP and uses new money to fund this spending, then the value of each dollar will decline by 20%. Prices would rise by 25% (inflation of 25%).

Paul,

I live about 80 miles from Detroit. How nervous do you think I am about the Big 3 workers suddenly not having an income? I don't want any bailouts, but I also am now getting nervous.

Neutron,

Agreed. Potentially millions of people out of work is a recipe for unrest and violence.

This is getting ugly. The bad news is turning into a cacophony.

So much for a slow flog into a depression. Welcome to the digital age, where we can go from paradise to hell in 3 short months.

Look for the PPT today.

If there ever was a PPT they are bankrupt by now.

http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay081119.aspx

Bay Area median price tumbles to $375K; sales reach high for '08

from that article...

"What happens next to housing will be determined by the fate of the economy, and especially the job market, as well as the outcome of recently announced efforts to curb foreclosures."

it's fucked for sure.

I think housing would be bottoming right now if they could have held the economy together. But then again, how do you hold the economy together when housing drops 40%?

The spiral is going to take this thing much farther than it should have. While I think it is worth cheering for a return for sound lending, reasonable prices, etc (good things), I still get the feeling that no one realizes how bad things are going to get.

"At the county level, foreclosure resales ranged from 10.6 percent of resales in San Francisco to 68 percent in Solano County. In the Bay Area's other seven counties, October foreclosure resales were as follows: Alameda, 41.1 percent; Contra Costa, 58.9 percent; Marin, 17.2 percent; Napa, 45.6 percent; Santa Clara, 36.4 percent; San Mateo, 21.6 percent; Sonoma, 49.7 percent."

This is juicy.

For a long time many people were hoping for and cheering for a price collapse in housing. But that does not happen without also getting severely unfavorable economic conditions.

Well those conditions came and the worst of it is now upon us. We are only in the beginning of the real pain.

It reminds of the old saying "Be careful what you wish for."

It reminds of the old saying “Be careful what you wish for.”

It is not like wishing it made it happen. Failing all else, we still have schadenfreude. ;-)

Zephyr Says:
For a long time many people were hoping for and cheering for a price collapse in housing. But that does not happen without also getting severely unfavorable economic conditions.
...
It reminds of the old saying “Be careful what you wish for.”

Being careful about what we wish for does not change reality. I would bet that the permabulls (remember those?) who used to troll here are probably much worse off if they followed their own real-estate binge advice.

Be that as it may, readers here (and at other sites like Mish's) have been extremely well-served by the information and pointers that helped us prepare for this.

Man, thank God we saved the financial system. I mean, if we hadn't of done that, I'll bet equities would be down 50%, housing down another 10%, unemployment would skyrocket, and there would be economic chaos.

Oh wait.

"Be that as it may, readers here (and at other sites like Mish’s) have been extremely well-served by the information and pointers that helped us prepare for this."

I think that's right to some degree SP. But I remember even just a year ago a bunch of people on this forum saying things along the lines of... "look, so housing goes back down to 1999 levels... what's the big deal?".

Anyhow, I think the general populace has finally realized what patrick.netters knew 2 years ago. But talking to people I know, they have no idea what's coming their way in 6 months.

And even now, predicting hell in 6 months, I can't help but wonder if it might come even sooner.

I absolutely agree that wishing does not change reality. Hope is not a plan!

GSE's just announced suspension of all foreclosures in cases of occupied homes until after the holidays.

But my point about those hoping for a price crash is not that hoping brought it on. Only that those who were hoping for it did not realize how bad it would be for so many people other than property owners and speculators.

. Only that those who were hoping for it did not realize how bad it would be for so many people other than property owners and speculators.

We knew about the Mayan Calendar. We are mentally prepared. ;)

I would like to see things stabilize before the economy is severely impacted. So far the damage to the economy is just started - the damage is small compared to how bad it will likely become. Think in terms of unemployment and inflation in the double digits.

"Be that as it may, readers here (and at other sites like Mish’s) have been extremely well-served by the information and pointers that helped us prepare for this."

The way to prepare for this was to sell your real estate in 2006, and sell your stock in 2007.

"We knew about the Mayan Calendar. We are mentally prepared."

Me too. I plan to party until Dec 21, 2012. If I wake up in the morning on Dec 22, I will go back to work.

FuzzyMath Says:I remember even just a year ago a bunch of people on this forum saying things along the lines of… “look, so housing goes back down to 1999 levels… what’s the big deal?”.

I am sure I would have said that then, and will also say it now. Housing going "down" to 1999 levels is no big deal - in fact, that is part of the solution.

The way to prepare for this was to sell your real estate in 2006, and sell your stock in 2007.

Hey at least I was right half of the time.

"in fact, that is part of the solution."

Yup. It might be the only part of the solution.

It is however, a big deal.

Look for the PPT today

Looks like the PPT took off work an hour early.

Supposedly the stocks plunged after the Dems balked on the auto bailout. The auto bailout (interesting pun auto bailout, like in automatic) will probrably just be delayed, so we may see a rally then.

Shrinkage at the Fed. Oh, and the bid to cover of the most recent TAF auction was slightly smaller than the one it replaced. I don't know how we live with that thing...

TOB,

C'mon, you can't be serious. Those egomaniac jackasses at Tesla who made a $100k electric car that ran on laptop batteries? Tesla is toast.