patrick.net

How about if we vote in the same manner that stockholders vote - by number of shares. Only we base it on income tax payment. So your votes are weighted by your latest or recent income tax payments. Those who pay no tax get no vote, and those who pay the bulk of the tax bill get the bulk of the say.

Peter P says: "Very well. Soon, we will realize that retirement is unnatural and extending welfare to retirees is against Nature. We will learn this lesson hard."

The really hard lesson will be when you reach old and feable age and cannot support yourself, and get no retirement under your proposed system.

Essentially you advocate starving the old out - even though they have previously been productive citizens. Such a harsh society would, no doubt, kill all non-productive adult citizens. No welfare needed - just kill the leaches to save money. Certainly the never productive are less deserving than the previously productive!

At the other end of the spectrum is the environment we have actually been migrating toward, where we subsidize uselessness by taxing the productive people and giving it to people who produce nothing (except more welfare recipients). This reminds me of the Americans with No Abilities Act, a law intended to protect the millions of Americans who lack any real skills or ambition:

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28982

enjoy.

I liked this, many many thanks Zephyr :-)

Congress Passes Americans With No Abilities Act
June 24, 1998 | Issue 33•24

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WASHINGTON, DC—On Tuesday, Congress approved the Americans With No Abilities Act, sweeping new legislation that provides benefits and protection for more than 135 million talentless Americans.

The act, signed into law by President Clinton shortly after its passage, is being hailed as a major victory for the millions upon millions of U.S. citizens who lack any real skills or uses.

Zephyr, we may have the worst of both worlds. :)

The unproductive will still be rewarded and we will still get nothing when we retire.

How about if we vote in the same manner that stockholders vote - by number of shares.

Already proposed! :)

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=336#comment-140700

Already proposed!?? Great! Sorry I missed that. So, lets vote on it. But, do we count he votes based on the new or old system?

"...we may have the worst of both worlds. The unproductive will still be rewarded and we will still get nothing when we retire."

Perhaps the reason we will have nothing when we retire is because the unproductive are rewarded.

Addition by subtraction. Subtracting a liability is as good as adding an asset. Doing both is a homerun.

So, stop subsidizing the never productive, and put them to work.

Perhaps the reason we will have nothing when we retire is because the unproductive are rewarded.

I have to agree. :(

If convicted felons are not allowed to vote, why should career welfare receipients be allowed to? Many felons have at least been productive before! I am all for a social safety net but people should not be allowed to rely on welfare indefinitely.

Case Shiller is out.

SFO (Bay Area) is now at 139.44.
Down 4.18% MoM
Down 30.98% YoY
Down 36.15% fro Peak in May 2006

Using 2% MoM declines we reach equilibrium now in April/May of 2009 - but that is relativeto retracing the bubble using an anual BA historic appreciation of 4.25%.
At this point I feel normal appreciation is off the table. Inflation is now negative and recession with job-loss and jumbo mortgage unaffordability will drive the market below the pre-bubble historic norms. I feel we can easily see Nominal 2000 pricing by early 2010. In theory, the market will simply stall there for a while but this is heavily dependant on how the economy is managed.
With the rate debt is being added to the US, there is a chance of whipsaw inflaton that the Fed would need to drive rates through the roof to correct. That will have the effect f really depressing housing.
So, I see early 2010 as a time to get a low rate, fairly low cost house. Then some time starting near mid 2011 housing will start another downward correction due to rising mortgage rates. Those with cash in 2012 will not care about the high rates and can get homes cheaper than 2010.
Of course there is a TON of economic intervention coming between now nd then. . .

Citi/Chase just informed me that they are closing one of my unused-for-24-months credit card accounts.

Talk about closing the barn doors after the cows are gone. Or closing the wrong barn door in this case.

Talk about closing the barn doors after the cows are gone. Or closing the wrong barn door in this case.

Actually, that might be a cost cutting measure. After all, why should Citi pay the cost of keeping revolving credit lines open for people too smart to use them?

Speaking of housing, did anyone notice that the tax code for 2008 allows one to deduct house property tax, even when one does not itemize? That is a boon for people with paid-for or nearly paid-for houses. Paid-for homes obviously generate no interest deduction, which makes the owners unlikely to have enough other deductions to make itemizing worthwhile. But now the "true" homeowners can take the standard deduction as well as deducting property tax. Is the tax code now encouraging housing thrift? Is someone going to catch hell from the bank lobby for letting this item slip in? I like it!

HeadSet,

Actually, that might be a cost cutting measure. After all, why should Citi pay the cost of keeping revolving credit lines open for people too smart to use them?

I think they will spend more money on postage and paper for trying to get me to sign up again than they do keeping a few bytes of account in their computer.

But seriously, the bank is probably grouping me in with the crowd that is (or they think is) just about ready to max out all their old cards as a last gasp before going bankrupt.

HeadSet,

One can elect not to itemize, except that particular ONE item. Very strange.

A shrivel of integrity left for what's remaining in the system?

http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68956898476790

Well, Saturn just turned retrograde.

At some companies, the furloughs are a prelude to a permanent layoff.

Trinh Nguyen, 23, was called into a conference room with four other workers in late December at the 50-person Baltimore architecture and design firm where he works. The group was told that they were on a 30-day furlough, starting Dec. 10. "They tried to lighten (it) up as not a termination," said Nguyen, who asked that the company not be named.

As he sees it, most of his co-workers will spend the time hunting for new work. Those who succeed won't qualify for severance payments they would have gotten had they been laid off. That would make the furloughs a way for the company to save money both on paychecks and severance — if workers can find other jobs.

"It's just a harsh situation," he said.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Speculation has surfaced that Microsoft Corp. might have to move beyond its current hiring slowdown and even cut jobs, as Wall Street analysts pare their outlook for the company amid the economic gloom.
Rumors of layoffs at Microsoft (MSFT:Microsoft Corporation
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4:00pm 12/30/2008

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MSFT 19.34, +0.38, +2.0%) emerged last week on a Web site published by an anonymous, self-described employee who writes as "Mini-Microsoft." A number of comments from posters describing themselves as fellow employees pegged mid-January as a timeframe for as much as 10% of Microsoft's roughly 95,000 jobs to be cut.

A more recent post on the Mini-Microsoft site Monday featured comments dispelling the layoff rumor, suggesting that the company may instead simply implement a broad reorganization and possibly scale back plans for new products.

Skaters Jump In as Foreclosures Drain the Pool

On a recent morning, a 27-year-old skateboarder who goes by the name Josh Peacock peered into a swimming pool in Fresno, Calif., emptied by his own hands — and the foreclosure crisis — and flashed a smile as wide as a half-pipe.

“We have more pools than we know what to do with,” said Mr. Peacock, who lives in Fresno, the Central Valley city where thousands of homes, many with pools behind them, are in foreclosure. “I can’t even keep track of them all anymore.”

.....
.....

Some skateboarders use realty tracking sites like realquest.com and realtor.com to find foreclosed houses with pools, while others trawl through satellite images from Google Earth.

On the Web site skateandannoy.com, where skaters trade tips about how to find and drain abandoned pools, one poster wrote about the current economic malaise. “God bless Greenspan,” the post read, “patron saint of pool skatin’.”

At current price of about $40/b every producer in the world is in trouble.

Tar sands included. (To be precise, current tar sands production of about 3mb/day is OK but only slightly profitable at $40/b. What's in trouble is the new investment money (about $30B) committed into new production and planned to come online starting 2010. About half of this money won't make sense anymore.)

While producing more oil is extremely difficult, producing less is a cinch. OPEC is turning off the tab by 3mb/d by Jan 1 2009, and likely to cut another 3mb/d by March. With this much cut, price will rise again for sure. Most OPEC producer countries need $60-70/b price in order not to go into national deficit, so one can safely assume they will just keep cutting productions until price reaches at least $80-90/b. They'd love to stabilize it as $100/b.

This is why Alberta is just sitting tight, knowing the low price will last only half a year. And you know what, Alberta needs a cooling period anyway. Boom of recent years create too much economic nonsense which need to be flushed out.

http://www.h1b.info/about.php

PermaRenter Says:
At some companies, the furloughs are a prelude to a permanent layoff.

Are there any companies that are considering a shorter work week with a pay-cut, as an alternative to layoffs?

I would _love_ to cut back work 4 days a week even if it meant a 20% pay cut...

I meant "cut back work TO 4 days a week"

I would _love_ to cut back work 4 days a week even if it meant a 20% pay cut…

Many may get this wish. Only you may not just see the 20% cut for the loss of one day, but a per day pay cut as well.

As a alternative to layoffs, I believe we will see:

Reduced work week
Cut in hourly pay
Mandatory annual 2 week unpaid vacations
A return to "vested" pensions. That is, you put away some of today's salary (with a possible employee match). This accumulated money, not future corporate earinings, is what pays your retirement.

Mandated vacations are fine.

Any change in pay structure is a big warning sign. Cut your loss short and exit early.

I am against any kind of pension.

Happy New Year to You'll.

It's a good time for 2009 predictions (anything & everything) from all our bloggers out here.

Frank,

H1-B visas are bad, bad, bad. Even in good times when the economy is booming. It basically is a steaming pile for people that take the time and money to achieve a technology degree. Working at various large tech companies I do not see why it is necessary, there are plenty of out of work and graduating engineers here to fill the holes.

slumlord, I do not see why employers should be restricted to one pool of labor. Would you like to be restricted to driving American cars only? I am not comparing the quality of American engineers and American cars. I am merely stating the importance of freedom and choice.

BTW, the new Lincoln MKS looks hot.

Companies exist primarily to make a profit, not to provide jobs.

As far as 4 days a week. No word yet. I did have to take a mandatory 4 days of vacation. Which with the holidays gave me a week and a half off. There is plenty of work and we are behind on some projects so I feel it is more of a knee jerk, fear based reaction. With the company not knowing what their customers are going to do.

At our holiday party one of the higher up's mentioned something about lets hope the bailouts and stimulus packages go through, as it will be good for the company. I was appalled and said no bailouts. It bothers me that a company of this size is somewhat depending on the bailouts....

Is that "higher up" a boomer?

Companies should do anything that makes them money? Yes I agree as long as they obey the law.

I do not agree with companies saying there are not enough qualified engineers and that we need to bring some in. Companies are free to do what they like, I am free to say they are being disingenuous.

As far as freedom and choice. Do you believe in borders? As in companies/jobs are somewhat free to cross borders but labor/people not so much.

Peter P, yes he is, how did you know LOL.

I do not agree with companies saying there are not enough qualified engineers and that we need to bring some in. Companies are free to do what they like, I am free to say they are being disingenuous.

To them, there are never enough qualified engineers. To us, there are never enough good jobs. To consumers, there are never enough choices.

Companies exist primarily to make a profit, not to provide jobs. Employees work primarily to make a living, not to make the shareholders rich.

See, we cannot avoid selfish motivations, we can only balance all these conflicts using a medium, such as Free Market. :)

Do you believe in borders?

I believe in borders so long as there is welfare. However, in my perfect world, there are no borders and there is no welfare. LOL!

Peter P, yes he is, how did you know LOL.

Perhaps I am psychic. :roll:

(I also know that tomorrow is a new year.)

I think we are arguing about different things.

H1-B is a law that has certain criteria. I believe from first hand experience that companies are abusing it and not using it for it's original intent. In essence they have perverted a law and are bordering if not being illegal.

As far as free markets, then a world without borders would mean the free market would be able to function better.

But I think that there are more workers than jobs, therefore being a worker bee. It would not benefit me....but that is just a supposition.

Motorola's layoff plan running ahead of schedule

According to a Reuters piece, yesterday beleaguered cell phone manufacturer Motorola announced that by the end of the quarter, which is today, the company will have laid off 400 more employees than it had originally planned. This does not reflect additional layoffs, but rather a change in schedule for the 3,000 layoffs that have been planned since October of 2008. The net result is that only 1,100 layoffs are now planned for Q1 of 2009 instead of the 1,500 that were originally slated for the quarter.

The change in schedule will result in an additional charge on Motorola's books for the Q4 period. Motorola had originally expected to rack up US$104 million in charges as a result of the layoffs in Q4, but said that it is now expecting the figure to come in somewhere around $189 million instead.

Happy New Year everyone!

Bloomberg article says that developing nations will have to start issuing their bonds in USD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKgtMlZgwWHo&refer=home

Would that be a positive for the value of USD or not? Seems like it ought to create higher demand for dollars, at least until they spend or exchange them again (which could have some time-delay?)

according to the article, dollar bond total was $68B, just a drop in the bucket compared to the printing of $T. We do $700B in one shot you know.

Plus, if the emerging markets are offering 12% or more for their dollar bond, that will have a lot of interest rate pressure on US T. But obviously we cannot let T rate go high, or else we will all be game over as foreclosure rate can easily go up 10x. So the Fed will print enough to suppress the T rate, which will more than negate the $68B dollar demand.

Maybe developing countries are issuing dollar bond because they are expecting dollar to tank? Why not issue Euro bond?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJQOEPb4pCYg

Now here is something that is more fitting for the US finance industry. People are trading US govt bonds that never existed.

I am convinced that the whole US stock, bond, financial market is just a big Enron, when it unravels, many people will find themselves completely naked, when the US Treasury market blows up, that will be the most spectacular event of the whole century, or even centuries to come.