patrick.net

Serpentor says

Yes, Chinese Men buy a homes before they get married, that has always happened. [edit, thats a new phenomenon, back then they get married and the bride moves in with the family] Regardless, When the do get married, the newlyweds are supposed to move into the house and start a family. They don't sit empty like they do now.

I was going to say something like supposedly in China owning a car and a house makes it much easier to get laid (in relative terms compared to other parts of the works). At least that's what I am lead to believe.

"They have nothing to put towards with their money? How about investing in real companies? How about starting new companies that actually produce things?"

As the Chinese saying goes, a Chinese businessman has five sets of books: one for the government [taxes], one for his partner, one for his wife, one for his girlfriends, and one for himself.

How can one invest in an economy that is this opaque? You can at least see property. Ho do you "see" your ownership share in a company? And even if you can see your share, how do you know what it is really worth? Which set of books is the company owner showing you?

People make up all kinds of stories about what the Chinese are doing with respect to US properties. Both the Canadian and US realtors are interested in suggested that foreigners will save their markets and raise prices. Meanwhile, there's little evidence that foreigners are buying here in larger numbers than they were before. And it's clear in places like Cupertino that, while many of the people there are immigrants, in many cases the people buying the overpriced houses have been here a long time.

Not Sure says

You won't find any historical references of Chinese people speculating on RE because the Chinese have never been as WEALTHY as they are now and thus capable of affording it.

More than a few would beg to differ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers

The Four Asian Tigers or Asian Dragons is a term used in reference to the highly developed economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. These nations and areas were notable for maintaining exceptionally high growth rates (in excess of 7 percent a year) and rapid industrialization between the early 1960s and 1990s. By the 21st century, all four have developed into advanced and high-income economies, specializing in areas of competitive advantage. For example, Hong Kong and Singapore have become world-leading international financial centres, whereas South Korea and Taiwan are world leaders in manufacturing information technology. Their economic success stories have served as role models for many developing countries, especially the Tiger Cub Economies.

Not Sure says

This means that if the alleged bubble should burst in China, it would only affect immediate investors and NOT their entire economy.

Japans RE bubble ring a bell...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

No! could never happen here mentality...

As in both Japan and US, it certainly did effect both economies.
Actually if you studied the markets, Japans bubble inpacted the global economy. As did the debts defualts by Latin America in the early 80s and Russian in late 90s.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis

Not Sure says

BTW, using Wikipedia as a credible reference source is like wearing a big bulbous red nose: don't do it UNLESS you wanna get laughed at.

Wiki isnt bad.. they provide the first level of info.

Not Sure says

so I REPEAT:
You won't find any historical references of Chinese people speculating on RE because the Chinese have never been as WEALTHY as they are now and thus capable of affording it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990s_in_Hong_Kong

Three months after the handover in July 1997, Hong Kong was dragged into the Asian Financial Crisis. At one point, the stock market fell by 22.8% within a week. Between the summer of 1997 and 1998, the leading shares in the Hang Seng Index lost nearly â…” of its value. The government had to intervene by buying billions of dollars worth of shares. While this may have prevented the market from collapsing and staved off pressure for the Hong Kong dollar to be depegged against the US dollar, the move was widely criticised as it undermined Hong Kong's status of a free market economy.

[edit] Real Estate

In 1998, the real estate bubble burst due to the government's housing policy, though the Asian financial crisis also had some influence. Upon the inauguration of Hong Kong SAR's first Chief Executive, Tung Chee Hwa announced the building of 85,000 flats a year, while reducing public housing wait time from 7 years to 3 years.[5] These factors combined to begin the most severe recession in Hong Kong since 1967, which was a year of ambitious government projects that used up fiscal reserves on infrastructure and structural deficit.

China: The Forgotten Real Estate Bubble Of The 1990s

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/real-estate/china-the-forgotten-real-estate-bubble-of-the-1990s.html

"There is very little wonder why people nowadays do not know that there was once a real estate bubble, or they have forgotten"

Not Sure says

And if there IS one ocurring now, the question is then whether it would have such a CATASTROPHIC, DESTRUCTIVE effect as the West's has.

In another words.. "it will be a safe landing"...

Yea... I heard that one before...

The Great Property Bubble of China May Be Popping JUNE-2011

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304906004576367121835831168.html

BEIJING?After years of housing prices gone wild, China's property bubble is starting to deflate.

World Bank economists warned at a Beijing press briefing on Wednesday that a real-estate bubble was among the biggest economic risks China faces.

Already, in nine major cities tracked by Rosealea Yao, an analyst at market-research firm Dragonomics, real-estate prices fell 4.9% in April from a year earlier. Last year, prices in those nine cities rose 21.5%; in 2009, the increase was about 10%, as China started to recover from the global economic crisis, with much steeper increases toward the end of that year.

A downturn in property and apartment prices would harm Chinese industry and investment, and crimp consumer spending. China is a "housing-led economy," says UBS economist Jonathan Anderson, who estimates that property construction alone accounted for 13% of gross domestic product in 2010, twice the share of the 1990s.

Global Dominio Effect...

If the Chinese housing market slows faster than people had expected, the impact would be felt in a number of markets that export heavily to China. Many Latin American and African economies have shifted their focus toward Chinese demand for their raw materials, and many Western firms, including U.S. retailers and fast-food chains, now bank on Chinese consumers feeling wealthier to make up for stagnating sales elsewhere. Also, plans by local Chinese governments to improve infrastructure loom large for heavy-equipment makers like Caterpillar Inc.

Serpentor says

Obama didn't do anything to help China becoming the power it is, it was Clinton.

But Nixon "opened" China, the apologists say. So, what was he opening it for if not commerce?

zzyzzx says

Serpentor says

Yes, Chinese Men buy a homes before they get married, that has always happened. [edit, thats a new phenomenon, back then they get married and the bride moves in with the family] Regardless, When the do get married, the newlyweds are supposed to move into the house and start a family. They don't sit empty like they do now.

I was going to say something like supposedly in China owning a car and a house makes it much easier to get laid (in relative terms compared to other parts of the works). At least that's what I am lead to believe.

If the homeowner isn't insulted by your offer...you didn't bid low enough!!!

isn't that true anywhere? you pull up in a Lambo in a club in Miami, panties start dropping. Money attracts the Vag. What does that have to do with chinese culture and bubble real estate?

Not Sure says

You won't find any historical references of Chinese people speculating on RE because the Chinese have never been as WEALTHY as they are now and thus capable of affording it.

A MAJOR difference between a possible Chinese RE bubble and the West's certain one is that the Chinese mortgage debt is NOT LEVERAGED at all. This means that if the alleged bubble should burst in China, it would only affect immediate investors and NOT their entire economy.

It will be disastrous to assume China's investments are not leveraged at all. The buildings are all financed though the back door by Local government that has borrowed to the hilt. The apartments and luxury condos are bought with borrowed money, many funded by local governments and channeled the private citizens and not documented in the traditional mortgage sense. The scary part is most westerners have no idea its happening just because they see that there are very little official mortgages, they assume the houses are all bought with cash.

Shadow financing.

you think all those factory workers making a few bucks a day saved up enough money to buy that luxury condo? (with food and goods prices growing by double digits) LOL

Not Sure says

Serpentor says

Are there any time in history of ANY culture that ENTIRE cities are built then sat empty?

Many. They're known as ghost towns and some of the factors leading to their abandonment include depleted natural resources, economic activity shifting elsewhere, railroads and roads bypassing or no longer accessing the town, human intervention, disasters, massacres, and the shifting of politics or fall of empires OR, more recently, due to speculative building backed by a lack of buyer demand.

http://vozesdialogo.blogspot.com/2011/05/spanish-ghost-towns.html#!/2011/05/spanish-ghost-towns.html

LOL. That is a pitiful example. Ok
First of all, that is a preview on what is going to happen to China. Spanish is part of the PIIGS fiasco and this is one of the result.
Second, That small ghost town is pitifully small (more like a village) compared to the massive cities (complete with massive sky scrapers, stadiums, and huge libraries and malls: built for a million citizens.
http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1975397,00.html

owned.

CL says

So, what was he opening it for if not commerce?

Serpentor is right, I think.

http://tech.mit.edu/V114/N27/china.27w.html

Plus in 1994 the yuan mysteriously weakened:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AEXCHUS

funny that

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2005231/Chinas-ghost-towns-New-satellite-pictures-massive-skyscraper-cities-STILL-completely-empty.html

"When asked what has happened in the past six months since the ghost cities were built, he said: 'China built more of them."

Serpentor says

"When asked what has happened in the past six months since the ghost cities were built, he said: 'China built more of them."

Govt mandated quota... The 5 Year Plan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-year_plans_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China#Eleventh_Five-Year_Guideline.2C_2006.E2.80.932010

Following are the highlights of the draft of the plan, which was distributed to the media prior to the opening of the Fourth

Session of the 11th NPC: 2011–2015

Population will be controlled below 1.39 billion
Urbanization rate will reach 51.5%
Value-added output of emerging strategic industries will account for 8% of GDP
Foreign investment is welcomed in modern agriculture, high-tech and environment protection industries
Coastal regions to turn from "world's factory" to hubs of R&D, high-end manufacturing and service sector
Nuclear power will be developed more efficiently under the precondition of ensuring safety
Construction of large-scale hydropower plants will gain momentum in southwest China
Length of high-speed railway will reach 45,000 km
Length of highway network will reach 83,000 km
A new airport will be built in Beijing
36 million new affordable apartments for low-income people

Among the Chinese people I know (not Chinese-Americans), a common thread is frugality, saving, and poor financial decisions regarding investments.

In China, one is limited in the choices for investment. The China stock market seems rigged, dishonest, risky, frothy. Think Sinoforest. So, many Chinese are reluctant to invest in their stock market. Chinese to my knowledge are not able to buy American mutual funds either.

So, Chinese often do buy empty apartments because renting them "ruins" their brand new characteristics. Strange but true, the investment of real capital is going to something that doesn't provide any income and has dubious future value.

Some folks doubt whether the Chinese can afford these massive projects. Of course the Communist government can. In China, much of the wealth resides in the government which in the USA resides in the people.

I often feel sorry for my Chinese friends, they have lost fortunes, whether on Apple stock options (how did she do that?), houses in Nevada, restaurants in San Francisco, betting on sports, buying mutual funds and selling when frightened, etc.

The funny thing is the reason given to me so often for these mistakes is "I was unlucky."

I cannot imagine how much money they would attract if Vanguard, T.Rowe Price and Fidelity opened a branches in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Not Sure, you don't know jack about Asian culture or their economy. You're just talking the talking points you've been fed to make excuses for our own failing.

China is Communist like we are a Democracy.

Both grossly perversed in their own way.

We're no longer a true democracy, and China is not a true Communist country. Not in the sense where people get ration coupons for their goods and services and have to whisper about their hopes and dreams, for fear of the fascist police persecuting them as a dissident.

clambo says

I often feel sorry for my Chinese friends, they have lost fortunes, whether on Apple stock options (how did she do that?), houses in Nevada, restaurants in San Francisco, betting on sports, buying mutual funds and selling when frightened, etc.

Ever go to the San Mateo race track, Bay 101, or local Casinos...
Yipes!

Not Sure says

Serpentor says

"When asked what has happened in the past six months since the ghost cities were built, he said: 'China built more of them."

Indeed, and don't forget that they also have the people needed to FILL those cities. To the HILT and then some.

Also, don't forget that they're a COMMUNIST nation, at least in theory, so it wouldn't be so outlandish to think that someday the Chinese government could suddenly decide to SUBSIDIZE or even openly GIVE AWAY those dwellings to the people, because ..well..THAT'S the kinda shit these commie bast@rds do sometimes.

if they had all those people to fill up the cities, where are they now?

What do you think will happen when the government step in and take the people's most valuable possession and turn around and give it to someone else? Given their obsession over material goods and real estate, do you think that will bode well? Minimum mass riots, worst case revolution.

If they were all "bought with cash" as you say, how long did these people save to buy these luxury homes? Do you think they will just sit by while the government seizes them?

When real estates start getting seized, what do you think will happen to the price of real estate? What happens when the largest investment of an entire nation goes to zero?

are you just throwing arguments up to see what sticks? do you really believe what you are saying?

Not Sure says

You won't find any historical references of Chinese people speculating on RE because the Chinese have never been as WEALTHY as they are now and thus capable of affording it.

I think if you actually read Chinese history, you'd find a very prosperous country during the Tang and Song dynasties. But you're probably just here to sling mud and see what sticks as someone said.

Think it's probably different culture values different stuff. Chinese parents, typically, will do anything to get the kids to go good schools, so they are probably also the ones much more readily to spend on houses at Cupertino or Palo Alto than American Whites. And, the majority of them (in the past) are coming from where the standard of living is probably lower than that of US and hence more tolerant to the conditions of the houses. Whether they have jacked up the price or not, maybe, not intentionally but certainly contribute to it to certain extent.

As for the real estates in China, think that's a different story, people keep buying these expensive property probably do that with the hope they are going higher, more from a speculative angle rather getting it as home.

And, I don't think this will apply to all Asians or Chinese descendants not from China. If there is a pattern in the behavior, it's most likely environmental reasons.

However, I would stress the ridiculous housing price in bay area is not solely due to *crazy* Chinese buyers.

Not Sure says

Where's the coffee that you're gonna use to fill your empty mug right now? That's right!: SOMEWHERE *ELSE*.

you are kidding right? Are there some kind fucking magical egg where China can populate those empty cities without taking people from another city and doesn't impact prices there?

Not Sure says

Uh, the ones who are OBSESSED over material goods and real estate are YOU AMERICANS, not the Chinese. THEY have other, deeper values. That's why THEIR civilization spans thousands of years and YOURS barely made it past 250 before it collapsed into a pile of shitte.

I'm going to say my favorite phrase: Who the fuck are you?

You don't know about the Chinese culture. I've seen it, lived it, both in modern times and when it was a commie shit hole. If you think Americans are materialistic, you don't know shit about the fucked up values they have in China right now. The cultural revolution wiped out all the traditional values and the semi-capitalism corrupted the citizens into money hungry status climbers who care nothing about morals. What are the deeper values you speak of? the same ones that put dry wall chemicals into baby formula? The ones that copies everything they see without regard to intellectual property rights?

Not Sure says

If you bothered to stay on topic, you'd notice that we're talking about EMPTY CITIES where, by definition, the units have NO OWNERS. Ergo, no one would care if they're seized.

Wrong. The residential properties were sold to private citizens by corporations funded by local governments. The roads and buildings were financed by local governments and corporations set up by those local governments. at the minimum it is a serious mis-allocation of investment, at worst it is a ponzi scheme done at historical levels.

Not Sure says

Gee, I didn't know the Tang and Song dynasties produced a GDP of $10.06 TRILLION, where the world's LARGEST EXPORTERS, had a per capita income of $7.600 and where the largest CREDITOR nation on the planet back in the year 900.

(Does THAT stick?)

fail.

At the peak of each Dynasty. (not just Tang and Song, but also Han, Jin, yuan, and Ming) they were the worlds dominant superpower. They traded as far as Europe and received tributes from all parts of the world. Sure they don't have GDP numbers back then, but neither did Europe, Middle east or Africa.

do you know anything about China? fuck

Not Sure says

(Does THAT stick?)

No, it doesn't, because it's a non-sensical response. The Chinese were still relatively wealthy to the rest of the world during those dynasties. Doesn't detract from my point at all and is just noise.

SparrowBell says

However, I would stress the ridiculous housing price in bay area is not solely due to *crazy* Chinese buyers.

Agree, we've had this discussion many times, and it never seems to hold water.

Serpentor says

You don't know about the Chinese culture. I've seen it, lived it, both in modern times and when it was a commie shit hole. If you think Americans are materialistic, you don't know shit about the fucked up values they have in China right now. The cultural revolution wiped out all the traditional values and the semi-capitalism corrupted the citizens into money hungry status climbers who care nothing about morals. What are the deeper values you speak of? the same ones that put dry wall chemicals into baby formula? The ones that copies everything they see without regard to intellectual property rights?

Yes, if anything, third worlders like Indians and Chinese tend to be more brand-conscious than here. For example, back in the day when people used tape players, if you brought a gift to your cousin in India and China of a Panasonic tape player instead of a Sony Walkman, your cousin would probably complain to his friends that you were a cheap bastard. While we might consider the Panasonic tape player here to be just as good (and it might even have more features), the brand-conscious cousin wouldn't agree.

There is a historical reason for this. Brands are an indication of quality in those places. People are so used to buying cheap shit that doesn't work and breaks quickly that they latch onto certain brands. It used to be more like that here, but we have far more reliable brands here in a much more mature local economy and our warranties are worth far more.

And yes, Chinese companies do often cut corners -- that goes without saying.

corntrollio says

The Chinese were still relatively wealthy to the rest of the world during those dynasties. Doesn't detract from my point at all and is just noise.

And here's another claim about how prosperous China was in the past relative to the west (and India too):

http://www.economist.com/node/21528979

People who grew up in America and western Europe have become used to the idea that the West dominates the world economy. In fact it is anomalous that a group of 30-odd countries with a small fraction of the world’s population should be calling the shots. For most of human history economic power has been determined by demography. In 1700 the world’s biggest economy (and leading cotton producer) was India, with a population of 165m, followed by China, with 138m. Britain’s 8.6m people produced less than 3% of the world’s output. Even in 1820, as the industrial revolution in Britain was gathering pace, the two Asian giants still accounted for half the world’s GDP.

Not Sure says

Serpentor says

do you know anything about China? fuck

I know that Chinese women's genitalia runs sideways.

yes, I know from first hand knowledge that you must have been birthed sideways

Not Sure says

Yes, from HERE:

right. all those poor peasants living in shanty shacks are going to all of a sudden go out and bid up prices on luxury condo high-rises. right.

I'm not even going to dignify the sex tour comment with a real response. I feel bad for anyone who has to pay to get laid or even have to get on a plane to get laid.

I just have to say if you are Chinese, you should be ashamed of yourself for not knowing jack shit about your own country's history.

If you are an ignorant American, I pity you for idolizing a corrupt society.

based on your postings, its pretty obvious that you are one of those poor bastards who bought an overpiced POS in China.. I hope it helped you find a woman or get laid, because your hope of ever making money on it is quickly slipping away.

Friend of mine married a chinese woman straight from China and she now lives in the U.S. with him. She still owns her original apartment, and she just recently purchased another when they were in China on holiday. However, her friend was allowed to buy two. When you buy a new apartment in China however it's literally an empty concrete shell. He said it was a really easy transaction compared to here in the U.S., taking place in a matter of hours. They don't have red tape all over everything and multiple parties taking a cut on every deal you make like we have here, which allows the economy to grow quickly and flourish.

Serpentor says

zzyzzx says

Serpentor says

Yes, Chinese Men buy a homes before they get married, that has always happened. [edit, thats a new phenomenon, back then they get married and the bride moves in with the family] Regardless, When the do get married, the newlyweds are supposed to move into the house and start a family. They don't sit empty like they do now.

I was going to say something like supposedly in China owning a car and a house makes it much easier to get laid (in relative terms compared to other parts of the works). At least that's what I am lead to believe.

If the homeowner isn't insulted by your offer...you didn't bid low enough!!!

isn't that true anywhere? you pull up in a Lambo in a club in Miami, panties start dropping. Money attracts the Vag. What does that have to do with chinese culture and bubble real estate?

Moreso in China, since their one child policy has created excess males. Unless they all plan on going gay.

lol not likely, the one lasting inheritance from the west that the east isn't likely to rise above soon is manhood=insecurity. Would certainly help ease the need for the 1 child policy if some people could just be themselves, weather live openly in their innate sexuality, or telling their parents to shove off the grandkid hopes family honor demands.

Serpentor says

yes, I know from first hand knowledge that you must have been birthed sideways

haha, so funny...

Serpentor says

Not Sure says

Gee, I didn't know the Tang and Song dynasties produced a GDP of $10.06 TRILLION, where the world's LARGEST EXPORTERS, had a per capita income of $7.600 and where the largest CREDITOR nation on the planet back in the year 900.

(Does THAT stick?)

fail.

At the peak of each Dynasty. (not just Tang and Song, but also Han, Jin, yuan, and Ming) they were the worlds dominant superpower. They traded as far as Europe and received tributes from all parts of the world. Sure they don't have GDP numbers back then, but neither did Europe, Middle east or Africa.

do you know anything about China? fuck

serpentor you are a snake

Name calling. classy.

If you must know. I'm a tiger in chinese zodiac. Not that I believe that crap.

Serpentor says

The cultural revolution wiped out all the traditional values and the semi-capitalism corrupted the citizens into money hungry status climbers who care nothing about morals. What are the deeper values you speak of? the same ones that put dry wall chemicals into baby formula? The ones that copies everything they see without regard to intellectual property rights?

Good point. I guess America isn't so bad after all, at least by comparison.

zzyzzx says

Moreso in China, since their one child policy has created excess males. Unless they all plan on going gay.

That's why so many Chinese are moving to San Francisco.

wthrfrk80 says

zzyzzx says

Moreso in China, since their one child policy has created excess males. Unless they all plan on going gay.

That's why so many Chinese are moving to San Francisco.

(ROFL)

Serpentor says

When people say "its part of the Chinese Culture" to buy up overpriced houses (whether its in China or Cupertino) my internal BS flag starts waving.
when you look back in the history of China, there are no cases where property were purchased to sit and not generate income. No cases when luxury real estate are bought by ordinary families and are sitting idle because nobody can afford the rent.

You really try to make a case that they are all rational, level-headed, business oriented people.

I wonder,

If they had Mao Tse Tung and Communism for so many years, can your argument really hold?

Serpentor says

you think all those factory workers making a few bucks a day saved up enough money to buy that luxury condo? (with food and goods prices growing by double digits) LOL

We know that regular workers won't have much. The country is run by communist thugs and corruption. They are going to eat their own #$%^$ now when all colapses. Party cannot last that long.

Hi Serpentor,

You seem to be very knowledgeable about Chinese culture, so maybe you could comment. I've heard that many of the Chinese government elites are preparing "escape plans" to the U.S., Canada, etc., getting residencies and houses. Anecdotally, my Las Vegas realtor has been showing a house when a Tour Bus of asian investors drove up to check it out. I don't believe that there's a large enough number of Chinese investors to influence the market, but there seem to be a few who make a striking impression because they bid high and pay cash. My impression is that the Chinese elites are not confident about how things will play out over there.

Giuseppe

Giuseppe,

I would certainly try to escape China (with my loot) if I could. But how can they do it? Wouldn't gov't goons try to prevent it? Unless they themselves are gov't goons...